Under The Hood: Las Vegas Bowl - BYU vs Oregon

Our bowl bonanza breakdown blitz, marked by hyper-analysis and excessive alliteration, continues with tonight?s Pioneer PureVision Las Vegas Bowl, played between BYU and Oregon.

Below is the statistical overview of each team; analysis to follow.

BYU margin of victory: +21.4 points
Oregon margin of victory: +5.7 points

BYU's opponents have a combined record of: 57-68
Oregon's opponets have a combined record of: 67-56
As another rough guide, Jeff Sagarin lists BYU's strength of schedule as 82nd toughest in the country and Oregon's as 7th.

How are these two teams performing statistically? Below are tables of each team's season totals, with national rank in parentheses.



Oregon By The Numbers: Offense





BYU By The Numbers: Defense


Oregon By The Numbers: Defense


The next, final, step, is to put those numbers into context. The following chart shows the national rank in total offense and total defense for each of BYU and Oregon's 2006 opponents. Portland State, a 1AA team, has been excluded from Oregon's chart.

BYU-Oregon Opponents' Positional Ranks
BYU By The Numbers: Offense
Rush YPG Rush YPC Rush TD Pass YPG Pass YPA Pass TD QB Rating Total Offense Scoring Offense
139.3 (54) 4.1 (51) 24 (18) 319.3 (4) 9.5 (3) 31 (5) 171.1 (2) 458.6 (5) 36.7 (6)
Rush YPG Rush YPC Rush TD Pass YPG Pass YPA Pass TD QB Rating Total Offense Scoring Offense
189.6 (11) 5.2 (10) 26 (10) 247.3 (21) 6.6 (73) 17 (50) 120.7 (69) 436.8 (8) 31.3 (17)
Rush YPG Rush YPC Rush TD Pass YPG Pass YPA Pass TD Opp. QB Rating Total Defense Scoring Defense
115.8 (35) 3.67 (45) 10 (27) 208.3 (73) 6.1 (24) 11 (24) 107.9 (20) 324.1 (57) 15.3 (16)
Rush YPG Rush YPC Rush TD Pass YPG Pass YPA Pass TD Opp. QB Rating Total Defense Scoring Defense
149.7 (82) 4.26 (87) 18 (85) 153.6 (8) 5.9 (14) 15 (46) 110.9 (26) 303.3 (29) 25.6 (84)
Total Offense Rank BYU Opponent Total Defense Rank -- Total Offense Rank Oregon Opponent Total Defense Rank
115
@Arizona
54
--
118
Stanford
97
10
Tulsa
19
--
63
@Fresno State
86
47
@Boston College
30
--
42
Oklahoma
17
114
Utah State
116
--
43
@Arizona State
27
17
@TCU
4
--
14
@California
90
108
San Diego St
73
--
76
UCLA
33
83
UNLV
96
--
25
@Washington State
81
69
@Air Force
78
--
74
Washington
95
100
@Colorado State
57
--
26
@USC
23
90
Wyoming
8
--
115
Arizona
54
89
New Mexico
84
--
50
@Oregon State
42
44
@Utah
56
--
--
--
--
74.6
Average
56.3
--
58.7
Average
58.6

Charts? Charts.

To the mats with the numbers:

*This is a pretty interesting matchup, really. For BYU, they've won nine in a row, but none over a team with an offense as strong as Oregon's. Their best win in that stretch, at TCU, is an impressive one, but the rest of the wins aren't much to brag about. Don't forget, too, that the Cougars were fortunate to escape Utah with a win.

*Teams have had a lot of success running the football on the Ducks, but Oregon's done a solid job defending the pass. BYU, of course, excels through the air, thanks to John Beck's accurate arm. The Cougars have struggled some this season when teams have limited their rushing abilities; if they aren't able to assemble any balance on offense, their advantage in the air will be lessened significantly.

*The other thing you have to worry about for BYU is their rush defense, which has been average this season. I look for Oregon to come out pounding the ball on the ground in this one, and if BYU isn't able to force the Ducks to the air, it might be a long evening.

*All told, the overall advantage - at least in my view - seems to be with Oregon. They finished the year poorly, but I like their overall talent better and the matchups with BYU look favorable. It's been a nice year for BYU, but Oregon's going to win tonight, 38-27.

--PB--

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