Prediction Revision

I noted on Friday that I would be revising my methodology for the prediction parts of each game preview. With Buckeye fans feeling that I'm getting a bit too smarmy with my Longhorns, this seems like a good time to make the change.

The problem with the current model is that I'm forecasting an outcome, and a precise one, at that, by taking a shot at the score. It's a fool's errand, on several levels.

For one thing, I'm not going to be predicting any losses at this point. Why would I? We haven't lost in ages and we haven't seen anyone play yet. I believe we're as likely - probably more likely - to lose a game, or even two, as we are to run the table. But with the possibility of going undefeated well within the bounds of reason, I'm not likely to predict a specific loss.

Second, we don't have nearly enough data yet to being doing anything as precise as picking scores. It's just unrealistic, and uninformative.



Retired. For now.

With that in mind, we'll revise the predictions from here on out to outline the different ways the game could play out. "Texas will win if: blah blah.  Texas will lose if: blah blah." By covering the range of likely scenarios, good and bad, we can offer something of substantive value.

--PB--

X
Log In Sign Up

forgot?
Log In Sign Up

Please choose a new SB Nation username and password

As part of the new SB Nation launch, prior users will need to choose a permanent username, along with a new password.

Your username will be used to login to SB Nation going forward.

I already have a Vox Media account!

Verify Vox Media account

Please login to your Vox Media account. This account will be linked to your previously existing Eater account.

Please choose a new SB Nation username and password

As part of the new SB Nation launch, prior MT authors will need to choose a new username and password.

Your username will be used to login to SB Nation going forward.

Forgot password?

We'll email you a reset link.

If you signed up using a 3rd party account like Facebook or Twitter, please login with it instead.

Forgot password?

Try another email?

Almost done,

By becoming a registered user, you are also agreeing to our Terms and confirming that you have read our Privacy Policy.

Join Burnt Orange Nation

You must be a member of Burnt Orange Nation to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Burnt Orange Nation. You should read them.

Join Burnt Orange Nation

You must be a member of Burnt Orange Nation to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Burnt Orange Nation. You should read them.

Spinner.vc97ec6e

Authenticating

Great!

Choose an available username to complete sign up.

In order to provide our users with a better overall experience, we ask for more information from Facebook when using it to login so that we can learn more about our audience and provide you with the best possible experience. We do not store specific user data and the sharing of it is not required to login with Facebook.

tracking_pixel_9347_tracker