How Tough Is Defending Your Title?
Just how hard is it to repeat as national champion these days? As Texas takes its 20 game winning streak into the 2006 season, I thought I?d take a look at how the top teams have fared a year after their national championship season.
A few notes about this brief study before we continue.
First, I had to pick a metric and stick with it. As such, we?ll use the Associated Press Final Season Poll. With apologies to LSU, the BCS hasn?t? been around forever, so this will have to do. It?s a minor point, anyway.
Second, this study is confined to results since 1980. Going further back doesn?t make as much sense for a number of reasons, the most important being that the game and football landscape has changed quite a bit since 30 years ago. With those qualifiers in mind, let?s take a look.
The table below lists the year, the national champion for that year, and the team?s final poll position in the following year. (NR indicates the team did not finish ranked in the AP Top 20 the following year.)
National Champions| Year | National Champ | Next Year |
|---|---|---|
| 1980 | Georgia | 6 |
| 1981 | Clemson | 8 |
| 1982 | Penn State | NR |
| 1983 | Miami | 18 |
| 1984 | BYU | 16 |
| 1985 | Oklahoma | 3 |
| 1986 | Penn State | NR |
| 1987 | Miami | 2 |
| 1988 | Notre Dame | 2 |
| 1989 | Miami | 3 |
| 1990 | Colorado | 20 |
| 1991 | Miami | 3 |
| 1992 | Alabama | 14 |
| 1993 | Florida St. | 4 |
| 1994 | Nebraska | 1 |
| 1995 | Nebraska | 6 |
| 1996 | Florida | 4 |
| 1997 | Michigan | 12 |
| 1998 | Tennessee | 9 |
| 1999 | Florida St. | 5 |
| 2000 | Oklahoma | 6 |
| 2001 | Miami | 2 |
| 2002 | Ohio St. | 4 |
| 2003 | USC | 1 |
| 2004 | USC | 2 |
| 2005 | Texas | ??? |
A few quick thoughts:
*For starters, repeating is clearly not easy. Only the 1994-95 Nebraska Cornhuskers and the 2003-04 USC Trojans were able to pull it off. The latter, of course, was not crowned BCS champion in 2003.
*The average finish of a national champion the following year is 6.04.
*Miami has been awfully good the last 25 or so years.
It?s been 20 games since Texas has felt the sting of losing, but history suggests we?re due for one this year. If Vince Young were returning, the story might be different, but with a freshman behind center, defending the title will be quite the challenge. I?m certainly not going to predict yet that we won?t, but as history tells us, the road to repeating these days is tremendously difficult.
--PB--
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10 comments
Comments
true
by USCLink on Jul 6, 2006 12:44 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
What caught my eye
by billb on Jul 6, 2006 12:46 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
2005 ---- Texas ------------------ ?
Damn Miami is a powerhouse. 6 titles in that time span with the next closest being 2 - NU, FSU, OU, PSU, USC. I may have missed something, but that is just incredible.
As Peter mentioned, it is quite arbitrary to set a starting point for any analysis, but 1980 seems as good as any other. I may have leaned toward 1986 covering the last 20 years, so I could ignore that 85 OU championship.
by MMHorns on Jul 6, 2006 12:49 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Beat tOSU
If McCoy or Snead has a good game that would solidify who takes the helm. If they have a bad game and you still win it will make it bit trickier to see which way it breaks for you.
I think the drop off for SC will be 3 losses- Ark. Cal and AZ. I still think we beat ND at Home and UCLA still has a lot of questions.
Anyway it will be fun to watch. Coach Brown's attitude seams more happy-go-lucky so he will keep it lite in tha face of the pressure ahead.
just my .02 cents.
by Paragon SC on Jul 6, 2006 12:52 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I think UT
I don't think 'SC drops more than 2 tho. I don't think Arksansas got enough better and we got enough worse for that one to go. Cal and Arizona are going to be sketchy tho.
by USCLink on Jul 6, 2006 1:14 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Kyle Field is a rough place
by chief on Jul 6, 2006 1:20 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
we might lose two this year
We might beat tOSU this year, but we'll need superior leadership if we have any games where we have trouble getting out of the gate. The leadership could be there, I just dont know who it'll be. Maybe Robison, Studdard, Selvin? No clue.
by the other Andrew on Jul 6, 2006 1:22 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs























