Top 25 Draft Ballot
by Peter Bean on Oct 22, 2007 12:16 PM CDT
in Football
28 comments
The new BCS Standings are out, with Ohio State, Boston College, Arizona State, Oregon, and Oklahoma commanding the top spots. As we do each week, we'll take our own stab at the rankings. Revisions considered through Tuesday.
This is not a power poll. Last week's ranking in parentheses.
Dropped Out: Kansas State (#16),
Tennessee (#18), Cincinnati (#20), Texas Tech (#23), Illinois (#25). |
4
22. Arizona State (3) Meaningful games: Colorado (+19), Oregon State (+12), at Stanford (+38), at Washington State (+3), Washington (+24). You can quibble about how to order ASU, OSU, and BC, but the Sun Devils are the team in the best position to make a legitimate claim on a top two spot. Winning their next four games (vs Cal, at Oregon, at UCLA, vs USC) would be the stuff of a BCS Title Game worthy team. [Next: California]
3. Kansas (11) Meaningful games: at Kansas State (+6), at Colorado (+5). There are two components to Kansas' resume: the cupcakes and their conference foes. Regarding the former, no team in the nation dispatched more thoroughly the weak teams on their non-conference schedule. And thus far in conference play, the Jayhawks havee picked up two road wins and a blowout of Baylor. I'll take Arizona State's body of work in the Pac 10 over KU's, but with the win in Boulder, Kansas gets a big boost on the ballot. The Jayhawks have work to do among the BCS human voters. A convincing road win in College Station Saturday would help. [Next: at Texas A&M]
4. Ohio State (2) Meaningful games: at Washington (+19), at Purdue (+16), Michigan State (+7). The closer I look at the Buckeyes' resume, the more I see last year's Wisconsin team. They've dutifully handled their chores thus far, but haven't yet defeated anyone of note. This week they travel to Happy Valley for a night game; a nationally televised road win over a solid-if-not-strong Penn State squad is critical to establishing their legitimacy (in my eyes). [Next: at Penn State]
5. Boston College (4) Meaningful games: Wake Forest (+10), NC State (+20), at Georgia Tech (+14). Hey, look at that - two of our top four teams had byes this week. Like Arizona State and Ohio State, the Golden Eagles lack a signature win at this point in the season, and this week may mark their only opportunity to pick one up as they travel to Blacksburg to take on the Hokies. There's no room for error here; these teams don't have the schedule strength to make the title game as one-loss participants. [Next: at Virginia Tech]
6. South Florida (1) Meaningful games for USF: at Auburn (+3), North Carolina (+27), West Virginia (+5), UCF (+52), at Rutgers (-3). The bubble finally burst, but when you look at USF's overall body of work, it remains excellent. They're highly unlikely to move up into title contention among the voters who count, but those two wins over Auburn and West Virginia are, for the time being, enough to keep them in the top six on this ballot. [Next: at Connecticut]
7. Oregon (7) Meaningful games: at Michigan (+32), at Stanford (+24), California (-7), Washington State (+46), Washington (+21). The Ducks may have the nation's best quarterback and overall offense. Their stay as title contenders makes or breaks this week when the Trojans visit Eugene in what should be a rather interesting matchup. USC's got terrific playmakers on defense; Oregon's been filthy on offenses. Winner remains a serious contender for BCS Title Game participation. [Next: vs USC]
8. Oklahoma (6) Meaningful games: Miami (+38), at Tulsa (+41), at Colorado (-3), Texas (+7), Missouri (+10). The Sooners won ugly in Ames, but ugly's been fine so far this year. Win, win, win. That's all that matters. Maybe not, though, for Oklahoma. As of now, the Sooners need some help to get up into title game contention, as there's nothing sexy left on their schedule to give them a boost. OU probably needs to start winning big again to re-establish itself among human voters that they're worthy of consideration for one of the top two spots. [Next: Bye]
9. Florida (13) Meaningful games: Tennessee (+39), Auburn (-3), at LSU (-4), at Kentucky (+7). I'm not sure I've ever seen one player so thoroughly haul a team upon his back. Okay, I have, but what Tim Tebow is doing right now is positively Herculean. With this team, it's not an overstatement to say, "They'll go as far as Tebow takes them." [Next: Georgia (Jacksonville)]
10. Kentucky (9) Meaningful games: Louisville (+6), at Arkansas (+13), at South Carolina (-15), LSU (+6), Florida (-7). They fought like hell, but couldn't keep the Gators out of the end zone. Like his counterpart on Saturday, Andre Woodson was silly good, tossing five touchdowns and no picks trying to keep the 'Cats close. [Next: vs Mississippi State]
11. Missouri (17) Meaningful games: at Illinois (+6), at Oklahoma (-10), Texas Tech (+31). There was no win more impressive on Saturday than Missouri's dismantling of Texas Tech. I'm going to be rooting quietly for Missouri and Kansas to win out to set up an interesting, winner takes all showdown in Lawrence on November 24th. It'd be good for the Big 12. [Next: vs Iowa State]
12. Auburn (12) Meaningful games: Kansas State (+10), South Florida (-3), Mississippi State (-5), Florida (+3), at Arkansas (+2), at LSU (-4). The Tigers have been a different team since an ugly home loss to Mississippi State, this week playing well enough to win in Baton Rouge but falling just short. [Next: Ole Miss]
13. West Virginia (14) Meaningful games: at Maryland (+17), at South Florida (-8), Mississippi State (+25). The Mouintaineers still have games with Rutgers, Cincinnati, Connecticut, and Louisville to boost the resume, but, like fellow one-loss Big East team South Florida, they're almost assuredly on the outside looking in without some serious help. Oddly, the Mountaineers are three spots ahead of USF in the BCS Standings, despite having a weaker resume and a head-to-head loss. Human voters have grossly inflated WVU's ranking. [Next: at Rutgers]
14. Virginia Tech (15) Meaningful games: at LSU (-41), North Carolina (+7), at Clemson (+18). The Hokies get their chance for a win voters will notice as Boston College travels to Blacksburg for a Thursday night game. We know less about BC than we do about Virginia Tech, but the Hokies have played much better since a lackluster start to the year. [Next: vs Boston College]
15. South Carolina (8) Meaningful games: at Georgia (+4), at LSU (-12), Mississippi State (+17), Kentucky (+15), at North Carolina (+6), Vanderbilt (-11). A home loss to Vanderbilt kills the Gamecock's momentum. Steve Spurrier struggling to find points? In-deed. [Next: at Tennessee]
16. Southern California (19) Meaningful games: Washington State (+30), at Washington (+3), Stanford (-1). Mark Sanchez may have permanently replaced John David Booty; the Trojans certainly need more from their quarterback than they were getting from the senior. What's wound up being a softish schedule so far now toughens significantly. USC has three road games with Oregon, California, and Arizona State before closing with UCLA. [Next: at Oregon]
17. Virginia (22) Meaningful games: at North Carolina (+2), Georgia Tech (+5), Connecticut (+1), at Maryland (+1). Just imagine if the Cavaleirs hadn't dropped their opener to Wyoming. We may not find out much more about Virginia until their final two games, when they close at Miami and versus Virginia Tech. As awful as UVA was in the loss to Wyoming, they've gotten it done since then. [Next: at NC State]
18. California (10) Meaningful games: Tennessee (+14), at Oregon (+7), Oregon State (-3). The win over Tennessee's losing luster, but the win against Oregon keeps the resume afloat. Still, the Bears have yet to reach the levels Tedfordites keep waiting for. A win over ASU would help restore some of the optimism, but I'd guess Cal fans really won't be satisfied unless they take out Southern Cal. [Next: at Arizona State]
19. Georgia (21) Meaningful games: Oklahoma State (+21), South Carolina (-4), at Alabama (+3), at Tennessee (-21). The Bulldogs desperately need to play well against Florida to avoid dropping from the rankings altogether and restore faith that this is one of the top tier teams in the SEC. Right now, they appear on the verge of a scary slide. [Next: vs Florida (Jacksonville)]
20. Alabama (NR) Meaningful games: at Vanderbilt (+14), Arkansas (+3), Georgia (-3), at Florida State (-7), Tennessee (+24). The offense is alive! Bama pounded Tennessee Saturday in a much needed win to get back some of the early momentum the Tide lost with back to back losses in September. They get a bye week before hosting LSU in a game for first place in the SEC West. [Next: Bye]
21. Texas (NR) Meaningful games: UCF (+3), TCU (+21), Kansas State (-20), Oklahoma (-7). At long last, Texas returns! As you can see, Texas hasn't accomplished anything particularly noteworthy yet, but the back end of this poll is full of warted teams. The 'Horns hope to keep building momentum with a win over reeling Nebraska. After that, the real tests of progress: at Oklahoma State, versus Texas Tech, and at Texas A&M.
22. Michigan (NR) Meaningful games: Appy State (-2), Oregon (-32), Penn State (+5), Purdue (+27), at Illinois (+10). The Wolverines now have three solid wins, but the two-game disaster to start the season carries too much weight for me to rank the Wolverines much higher right now. Michigan and UCLA could very well wind up with the two wackiest looking resumes when it's all said and done. [Next: vs Minnesota]
23. UCLA (NR) at Stanford (+28), BYU (+10), at Utah (-38), Washington (+13), at Oregon State (+26), Notre Dame (-14), California (+9). Like I said, just wacky. The Bruins are 4-0 atop the Pac 10 standings with Arizona State with two inexplicable, grotesque non-conference losses. A 38 point loss to Utah? Any loss to Notre Dame? [Next: at Washington State]
24. Hawaii (24) Meaningful games: None. Same as every week. They have no meaningful wins to speak of, but no losses, either. That keeps 'em ranked until they play Boise State, when they can pick up a win against real competition. [Next: vs New Mexico State]
25. Penn State (NR) Meaningful games: at Michigan (-5), at Illinois (-7), Wisconsin (+31), at Indiana (+5). The Nittany Lions have exactly one chance left this season to announce their worth: next Saturday night when they host Ohio State. As someone who really doesn't want to see Ohio State in the title game again this year, I'll be glued to that game start to finish. [Next: vs Ohio State]
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I am another someone
by Speedway on Oct 22, 2007 12:32 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Glad you have it right
UConn should not be BCS ranked. They came up with a lucky win over Louisville but other than that their wins have been over uber-cupcake teams. They have some tough road games coming their way at Cincy & WVa. And that's not to mention the USF and State University of New Jersey (aka Rutgers) games at home.
by Speedway on Oct 22, 2007 12:42 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Interesting top 2
Though I can't disagree, it would be something special for LSU-Arizona St title game in New Orleans. Remember their regular-season game in 2005 had to be moved from Baton Rouge to Tempe because of the hurricane? Money raised from that game went to the relief fund. The two schools developed a bond.
I somehow don't think this will happen, though. I'm thinking luck will run out soon for Les Miles. Too many 4th quarter heart attcks this year!
by FreedomDip on Oct 22, 2007 12:56 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I agree with much of this poll
Am curious about South Florida above Oregon, though. Oregon's loss is better than USF's, in my opinion.
by BrooklynHorn on Oct 22, 2007 1:10 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
i'm not sure texas should be ranked at all
i've thought of them as a team that should be ranked in the 20s, but i looked at the full BCS standings and noticed that not one computer ranked UT in the top 25. Now, with the added caveat that the computers are hamstrung a bit by not being allowed to take into account margin of victory (which actually might help Texas more than it hurts it), this is still important to note because computer programs are designed very specifically to resume-rank all the teams.
So looking closer, what, exactly, has Texas done? The most impressive game for their own resume so far is the 7-point loss to OU. ASU is ASU; UCF is not particularly good; TCU has beaten no one and has losses to air force, wyoming, and utah; kansas state is solid, but beat Texas by the same amount it beat San Jose State; Baylor and Iowa State are very, very bad. I know that the bottom of the poll is tough, but Texas has NOTHING to hang its hat on other than a close loss to a good but not great team.
Penn State has a better resume, on account of their 2 losses were to solid teams by a combined 12 points and they destroyed another solid team (Wisconsin, by 31). We all give a lot of shit to Hawaii for their schedule, but I think their resume, however thin, is comparable to, if not better than Texas'. Yes, they have no quality wins, but neither does Texas and at least Hawaii hasn't lost - twice!
by billyzane on Oct 22, 2007 1:14 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Twentysomething
A twentysomething ranking for Texas seems about right. Hawaii should be higher that Texas and what's to say Hawaii shouldn't be in the top five? Does anyone really think Ohio State would be at number one if they were the 8-0 Hoosiers or an 8-0 Illini team? I think Texas, by the good fortune of it's history, is BCS ranked. I think tOSU is sitting as the uncontested BCS number one simply because they wear scarlet and gray.
by Speedway on Oct 22, 2007 1:38 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Glad to see you cleaning out the homerisms
in your garage.
About the best that can be said is that Texas has had a lot of tough games. It may be that that aren't very good or that they can't put all the pieces together, like an old truck that always has something going wrong, and that the turnover bug stung them at the more inappropriate times, but constantly having to scrap to gain any measure of victory can help the fighting spirit, can make a team not take anything for granted (although I think they did take Baylor for granted to some degree).
Sometimes a team just has to overcome itself and its reputation, particularly if it is young and yet relentlessly hyped. Focusing outward and not inward in such situation is the solution but that takes a lot of discipline, personal and coaching-wise. This team has rarely played like a cohesive Top-25 team and only then against OU, Rice and Iowa St. On the other hand, much of the Top 25 have been guilty of the same problem.
by whills on Oct 22, 2007 1:53 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
PB's favorite coach
looks to be on his way to loosing his team the MNC.
The calls against Florida were ballsy but justifiable. The call against Auburn was insane but even worse was the atrocious time managment in the second half generally and in the final drive in particular. The LSU offense absolutely blew past Auburn's excellent defense but still had to sweat it out at the end.
Agree with pretty much all the rankings. Clearly LSU has accomplished the most is very likely the best team (in a power ranking sense) and, given the general mmediocraty this year, should be well on their way to the MNC, but The Hat...
Also like the high rannking for Kasnas and the reasoning for it. Blowing out the cupcakes is not to be despised this year and failure to do so should reflect poorly on the failees. Example numero uno - Oklahoma. Kinda makes me feel better about our demolition of ISU last week (I watched OU for most of the second half rather than Texas - frankly a somewhat more edifying spectacle for Longhorn fans) and even about our less than impressive win against Baylor.
by duras on Oct 22, 2007 2:54 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Buzzwords
Seems like a lot of coaches, pundits, and even players have made 'parity' their new favorite word. Parity, parity, parity. I am tired of hearing it in regards to this season. I've been wondering can't anyone at least use a synonyn? Balance, equality, anyone? There are more; the English language is full of alternatives. Can we give the word parity a break? Or is it just me?
I think duras just coined (or almost did and then it occurred to me) a new word describing this season (or at least Notre Dame's season) and that is: mediocrappy.
by Speedway on Oct 22, 2007 3:19 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
are you sure that's strong enough?
And FYI that's not gloating. ND's season is so bad that even as a rival gloating's not fun, it's cruel.
by DC Trojan on Oct 22, 2007 7:57 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Trojan
You're going to have to search for some ancient Scottish term to describe the magnitude of Our Lady's indescribable crapiness this year (like those legal doctrines they were searching for when Clinton was impeached). You may need to go to ancient Greek or even ancient Trojan(huh? What language did the speak in Troy anyway? They seemed to converse fluently with the Greeks so it may have been some greco-trojan blend. Thay may have be their language as well - perhaps you'l enlighten us)
Real test this weekend against University if Nike. Strap them up.
by duras on Oct 23, 2007 1:00 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I like how
Texas shows up when the disgrace formerly known as Michigan does. Very nice of you to slap us in the face even as you finally end our self-imposed ballot vacation. Considering how we played against Baylor, that's a kind justice.
by Horn Brain on Oct 22, 2007 3:20 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Another rare instance....
The Longhorns' Sagarin Ranking is #46
Sagarin Rankings for our opponents:
Wins - Losses - Future Games
UCF 74 OU 14 A&M 32
TCU 86 K.State 34 OklaSt 33
Baylor 102 TexTech 44
IowaSt 131 Neb 55
ArkSt 136
Rice 152
.
We beat the teams we were supposed to beat. However, not by the margin we should have, given their talent. Par for this staff.
Just look at the teams ranked immediately below us in the BCS. Each of them has a signature game to their credit.
20.Michigan - defeated #25 PennSt and a difficult Illinois team
21. Cal - defeated #5 Oregon
22. Auburn - defeated #11 Florida and a KansasSt team that beat us by 20 in our house
23. UConn - Louisville (OK a little marginal)
24. Alabama - defeated a Tennessee team that was ranked #20
25. PennSt - defeated a Wisconsin team that was ranked #19
Who exactly would be our signature victory? A 4-4 TCU team tied for last place in the MountainWest?? Our "body of work" is abysmal.
by HornChamps on Oct 22, 2007 4:36 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
well, i would like to note...
that if you're going to point to what an opponent WAS ranked when they were beaten as evidence that that team was quality when the game was played, you should also add that TCU was ranked #19 in the AP poll when Texas beat them. I agree with you that the TCU win is not particularly impressive though. but neither is any win when the other team's ranking was artificailly inflated, which seems to be what you're saying about the Alabama and Penn State wins over Tennessee and Wisconsin, respectively.
by billyzane on Oct 22, 2007 4:45 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well
I've never inflated Texas' body of work. I don't think it's terribly impressive.
I'll note, though, that Michigan lost to Appy State. Connecticut hasn't beat anyone of note (UL doesn't count this year). Wisconsin is not a good football team; beating them means little.
In other words: we're nothing special, but none of these other teams are either. I'm okay sticking Texas in the back of the Top 25.
by Peter Bean on Oct 22, 2007 4:47 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Peter...
Sorry if you read different.
by HornChamps on Oct 22, 2007 4:52 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
No offense taken
Just noting why I finally included Texas this week. Thanks for the kind words; they're appreciated.
by Peter Bean on Oct 22, 2007 4:53 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
how in the world
do you have Kansas ranked third and Hawaii ranked at all after almost losing to SAN JOSE STATE!
by Hook'em13 on Oct 22, 2007 5:07 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Kansas and Hawaii
Kansas has destroyed their cupcakes and beat two solid teams on the road. That's a damn good place to be this year.
Hawaii is 7-0, and though none of the wins are high quality, they are still wins. They aren't moving up because they aren't beating anyone good, but wins are wins.
by Peter Bean on Oct 22, 2007 5:31 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
meaningful games?
@ mississippi st?
@ stanford?
come on dude.
by mattw on Oct 22, 2007 5:18 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Only because
Each of those two teams has defeated a team in the top 25. It's there for comparison.
by Peter Bean on Oct 22, 2007 5:29 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
my top 5
pb- i have
1 lsu
2 asu
3 tOSU
4 Oregon
5 Florida
no way Kansas, South Florida, or Boston College
beat Florida
(or OU for that matter)
the BCS NC is going to be a joke if BC is in it.
by ut1ou2 on Oct 22, 2007 6:53 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
BC in the BCS is a complete
joke but we can hope that VTech or someone will knock them off and even if they win out its possible the voters will put in a 1 loss team like LSU, (the land thieves) or even Oregon ahead of them.
tOSU is a different story. If they win out they are in reagardless of the circumstance that they will not have garnered one scalp indicating their worthiness of a top 2 ranking.
by duras on Oct 22, 2007 7:45 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
the problem
with saying "this team would beat this team, and thus they should be ranked higher" is that some teams have played each other. stanford has proven that if they played USC (at USC, mind you), they would win. therefore, according to your method, stanford should be ranked higher than USC. oh, and obviously, kentucky should be ranked higher than LSU, though you don't seem to stick to your own system in making your rankings, apparently.
i don't blame you though. it just doesn't work because the transitive property doesn't apply to sports.
by billyzane on Oct 22, 2007 8:18 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
OSU
First Post on the Board. I'm an Ohio State Graduate so I will be biased, but I will also tell you my favorite football game of all time was Texas being OSU in the Shoe in 2005. I still think those were the best 2 teams in the country playing too early in the year.
Ok, I understand not having OSU at 1, but I don't agree with dropping them after they take care of business. I was at the game and they had more passing yards than M. State had total yards (they had more rushing than passing yards). I think the penn state game will be a blowout (see Purdue on the road) and it is going to come down to Michigan. I also feel that Texas is a top 15 team as of right now, since they played the team that I think has the most talent on the field (ou) tough for 4 quarters
Hope I'll be around to contribute more
by Buckeye06 on Oct 23, 2007 11:25 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Thanks
Thanks for the comment. Truth be told, most of us haven't seen Ohio State play much this year, which is another reason why I'll be glued to the TV Saturday night. I think a lot of us are wary of the Big 10 in general this season; having not seen the Buckeyes play much yet this year, I want to see how they perform at night in Happy Valley. First big test of the year for them, and one that can earn them some validation.
With all that said, my rankings are purely on resume. The Bucks just haven't beat anyone good yet. Purdue and Michigan State are average at best. The Buckeyes need to start rolling through the good teams before they can move up.
by Peter Bean on Oct 23, 2007 11:30 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
OSU
After so many complained it wasn't a Big Ten rematch, the Big Ten shoulda taken care of Business in the BCS title game and the Rose Bowl.
That, and lack of high-profile games are reasons why they have been mostly an afterthought this year.
by FreedomDip on Oct 23, 2007 12:18 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
PSU
Isn't likely to enhance tOSU resume enought to warrant a spot in the BCS or a dramatically higher ranking. I do think, provisionaly, that tOSU is the class of an abominable Big Televen. Furthermore the blowout against Florida was probably a function of the crapiness of the Big Televen as much or more than OSU. Florida was regularly tested in tough games during the season and LSU has this year. You guys haven't and there's just no way to similate that kind of experience.
It is the case, however, that you guys will assuradely play in the title game if you win out but your chances there are dubious for the reason mentioned above. The Sweatervest will have his boys ready to go but its unlikely to be enough.
by duras on Oct 23, 2007 1:08 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
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