BlogPoll Top 25 Draft Ballot
by Peter Bean on Oct 29, 2007 7:23 PM CDT
in Texas Longhorns Football
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PrintAs always, your comments considered through Tuesday. I'm most interested in how to sort through the teams still considered viable candidates for the national title game. I've laid out my own reasoning, but welcome thoughtful critiques for alternative views. There's no Right Way here. I'm open to persuasive chatter.
1. Arizona State (2) Meaningful games: Colorado (+19), Oregon State (+12), at Stanford (+38), at Washington State (+3), Washington (+24), California (+11). If this were a power poll, I wouldn't rank the Sun Devils #1. Looking just at the on-field accomplishments, though, I think they've got the goods right now. While LSU's resume took a bye week hit (Virginia Tech, Florida, South Carolina, and Kentucky all losers), Arizona State dispatched California while past victims Colorado, Oregon State, and Washington State all picked up wins. Reasonable minds can disagree here, but I'm comfortable with this. And ASU can firm the hold here on Saturday when they travel to Eugene. [Next: at Oregon]
2. LSU (1) Meaningful games: at Mississippi State (+45), Virginia Tech (+41), South Carolina (+12), Florida (+4), at Kentucky (-6), Auburn (+4). See above. LSU's got some fine pelts on the wall, but as the SEC continues to cannibalize, they'll need to assert their primacy vigorously with convincing wins down the stretch. [Next: at Alabama]
3. Kansas (3) Meaningful games: at Kansas State (+6), at Colorado (+5), at Texas A&M (+8). Kansas whipped the Aggies pretty thoroughly - more so than the 8 point final margin indicates. They hold off Ohio State for now, though the Buckeyes were as impressive as anyone Saturday night. I'm in the minority on Kansas here - most folks have them down at least a couple spots, if not more. Consider me (overly?) impressed with the way that they so thoroughly dismantled their weak opponents, while handling conference business on the road with aplomb. [Next: vs Nebraska]
4. Ohio State (4) Meaningful games: at Washington (+19), at Purdue (+16), Michigan State (+7), at Penn State (+20). The Nittany Lions are hardly a top tier test, but Ohio State so completely beat down Penn State that I came away impressed. Still, they've got work to do to catch and hold off their competitors. (Not in real life, mind you, where they'll play for it all if they win out.) [Next: at Penn State]
5. Oregon (7) Meaningful games: at Michigan (+32), at Stanford (+24), California (-7), Washington State (+46), Washington (+21), USC (+7). The Ducks are right on the cusp already and now get to host undefeated Arizona State. Their best case scenario: beat Arizona State handily and have the Sun Devils win out their remaining games. [Next: vs Arizona State]
6. Boston College (5) Meaningful games: Wake Forest (+10), NC State (+20), at Georgia Tech (+14), at Virginia Tech (+4). A win is a win, but it sure was ugly. In real life, the Golden Eagles needn't worry about style points too much, though. Their strength with the computers virtually assures them a national title shot if they win out. Florida State should not be considered a gimme win. [Next: vs Florida State]
7. Oklahoma (8) Meaningful games: Miami (+38), at Tulsa (+41), at Colorado (-3), Texas (+7), Missouri (+10). A bye week for the Sooners, who are very much on the outside looking in on the BCS Title Game without help. Not only must they win, but they need quite a few dominoes to fall. First things first, though: they must stay in the national conversation with wins that impress voters. [Next: vs Texas A&M]
8. West Virginia (13) Meaningful games: at Maryland (+17), at South Florida (-8), Mississippi State (+25), Rutgers (+28). West Virginia has yet to put together a full season of its Best Football, but few teams are more explosive when everything's working. Like Oklahoma, they need a lot of help to be considered for the Title Game. Winning the Big East should be the primary focus. [Next: Bye]
9. Missouri (11) Meaningful games: at Illinois (+6), at Oklahoma (-10), Texas Tech (+31). Missouri's win over Iowa State was sloppy, but it'll do. The team who really needs to root hard for the Tigers until the final weekend is Kansas. That game has to be a clash of the titans draw for a national audience if anyone's going to pay any attention to the Jayhawks. [Next: at Colorado]
10. Georgia (19) Meaningful games: Oklahoma State (+21), South Carolina (-4), at Alabama (+3), at Tennessee (-21), Florida (+12). As impressive a victory as Mark Richt's ever had, the Bulldogs benefit from everyone else's struggles as much as they do from beating UF. [Next: vs Troy]
The rest of the Top 25:
| Rank | Team | Delta |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arizona State |  1 |
| 2 | LSU |  1 |
| 3 | Kansas | -- |
| 4 | Ohio State | -- |
| 5 | Oregon | 2 |
| 6 | Boston College | 1 |
| 7 | Oklahoma | 1 |
| 8 | West Virginia | 5 |
| 9 | Missouri | 2 |
| 10 | Georgia | 9 |
| 11 | Auburn | 1 |
| 12 | Alabama | 8 |
| 13 | Michigan | 9 |
| 14 | Connecticut | 12 |
| 15 | South Florida | 9 |
| 16 | Florida | 7 |
| 17 | Tennessee | 9 |
| 18 | Texas | 3 |
| 19 | South Carolina | 4 |
| 20 | Kentucky | 10 |
| 21 | Hawaii | 3 |
| 22 | Illinois | 4 |
| 23 | Virginia | 6 |
| 24 | Wake Forest | 2 |
| 25 | Colorado | 1 |
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Georgia not 10
They do get my vote for most intense squad of the year and best celebration. Mark Richt is up there with my fav. coaches. Gotta love the guy who, baiscally, sees "we don't give a fuck, we are going to talk trash and hit Florida in the mouth." Although it was classesless and disrespectful he does what it takes to get his team fired up.
Mack uses a fake punt to an overrated senior linebacker against a terrible to get his guys fired up. We needed that against OU, or KU or even Nebraska.
They do not impress me. I think they should around 15 or so. Either 'Bama or Connecticut should be ahead of them.
Also oregon should be number 2 or three.
by longhorn4life3 on Oct 29, 2007 8:01 PM CDT reply actions
ASU # 1?
to me they haven't earned the right quite yet. Ohio State should be # 1. but if ASU comes away with a W over Oregon that they get my # 1 vote. Also agree with where you put Texas.
fire Greg Davis
Earned?
How has Ohio State "earned" anything more than ASU has? Their biggest win was Penn State this weekend. Doesn't really compare to a Cal team that was #2 in the nation a couple weeks ago.
Neither has blown anyone out of the water, but ASU deserves the nod at this point.
i will beleive that
when and if the beat oregon. if they beat oregon, ( and not in the fashion BC did) i will give them the go ahead nod for #1
fire greg davis
How do you justify ASU at No. 1?
They may look better on paper, but I don't see how you can rank them ahead of the Ducks. If anything, Oregon at #1 would make more sense, even though they lost a close on to Cal.
Here's where wins and losses come into play and they shouldn't. Cameron Colvin hangs onto that ball or it doesn't go out of bounds in the end zone, that game is over, and Oregon wins. Obviously it didn't go that way, as Cal came out on top thanks to the fumble that went out in the end zone.
I know it seems weird that I'm backing our rivals, but I just don't see how you can put Arizona State at No.1, and the Ducks at No. 5.
In the grand scheme of things, it doesn't matter. We'll solve this problem this weekend.
Here's the end of the Cal game:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QxOyE...
--jake
www.buildingthedam.com
by buildingthedam on Oct 29, 2007 8:46 PM CDT reply actions
We can't rewrite history
The kid fumbled; Oregon lost. Even if he scores, there's no guarantee they win. We can only go by what's happened. As of now, ASU played Cal better than Oregon. I see no justification for placing the Ducks ahead of ASU.
You're right, it's an academic argument, but I do not see how Oregon could be #1 over ASU.
Absolutely PB
Even moreso becuase ASU seemed more convincing in its win over Cal than Oregon did. The relative position of Oregon/ASU is least worthy of discussion however because this issue will be resolved to our satisfaction this Saturday.
More problematic is measuring the quality of the opponent based on the progress or regression of the teams. ASU was more convincing but it also seems to be the case that Cal was a better team a month ago at Autzen than they were this past Saturday. Again in this case the issue is trivial but in others not so much. LSU beats MSU by 45 at MSU, then looses at Kentucky, which proceeds to play Florida tough then to loose to MSU at home by 17. Does this enhance the quality of LSU's win over MSU or does it make their loss to Kentucky worse? Seemingly both, but how does that impact their rankings?
The entire poll is at the very least defensibly but best of all you have OSU and BC in their rightful and not excessively elevated places. In particular it was appropriate to move BC down because whatever doubts we may have had about them going into last weeks game have been intensified by their effort rather than allayed by the win.
Sorry
2 more cents
I agree for the most part, but having watched both the Oregon-Cal and ASU-Cal games, it is only fair to point out that Oregon played a very different Cal team than ASU played.
Oregon played a Cal team that was all jacked up on hopes of playing for a National Title. By contrast, the Cal team that ASU faced last weekend had lost twice already, had been thrown out of rhythm with a QB injury, and was really only a shell of the team that once dismantled Tennessee and Oregon.
Yes it is a common opponent, which is all we have to go on, but the circumstances weren't exactly the same.
by BrooklynHorn on Oct 30, 2007 12:43 AM CDT up reply actions
Different team
But if you say that "Oregon played a very different Cal team," then I think you must also admit that Oregon played a very different Michigan team than the one that is on a long winning streak.
Thats really part of the point
I was making as well. Both Cal and Michigan are very different from what they were when they played Oregon. Again, in respect of ASU we'll know Saturday.
When we evaluate OSU at the end, assuming they win out, we will not need a 32 point victory (which didn't actually reflect how lopsided the game was - my wife is a Michigan alumn and she stared at the TV through the end in fascinated horror) to convince us that they are more deserving of a trip to the BCS champhionship game than Oregon. Still, a somewhat decisive win will be necessarry. For the powers that be, however, an undefeated OSU can securely book is reservations for NOLA, no questions asked.
your right
lets just wait ans see what happens this weekend and we shall see who is the #1 out of the two. but as of right now, Ohio State is my #1.
fire greg davis
At this point ...
It comes down to this:
Give every team a week off (or four for BCS purposes) and a neutral site. Who's you'r hands-down No. 1?
Alabama at 12? UConn at 14?!?
UConn's 8 opponents this year have an average of a little over 3.5 wins this year. And they haven't looked all that impressive in beating those teams. The beat Temple by 5 at home, and needed a horrible call to beat Louisville. They really don't belong that far above Hawaii.
by Credit812 on Oct 29, 2007 9:48 PM CDT reply actions
Tough call
As meh as the UCONN resume seems, the Hawaii resume is far sketchier.
I do have a tough time with the Huskies, though. They've got the head-to-head win over USF, but the rest is only so-so. They're probably the team I'm least sure about placing.
actually
they needed a horrible call to beat temple. While i was watching that game temple threw a touchdown on a trick play only to have it taken away even after the review! and it was CLEARLY a touchdown. if you ask me their only remotely creditable win was south Florida, and i have a feeling south Florida may have been flat.
fire Greg Davis
BCS computer ranking issues aside
If your #16 team travels to play your #7 team and loses to them by a touchdown and you drop them completely out of the Top 25 as a result, am I to assume you reconsidered having them at #16 to begin with? If not, that seems like a pretty big drop, given the circumstances.
Yeah
Not sure if I've treated this properly or not. USC has NO good wins, though. And a loss to Stanford. It's the latter that's got them in trouble on my ballot. Compare them with, say, Michigan, who has an equally awful loss - Michigan has some solid wins to hang their hat on. USC's got nothing. Nebraska has totally tanked on 'em.
Still, I'm not sure if I'm being too harsh with USC or not.
Again, though, I'm mostly concerned with the folks in contention for a BCS Title Game bid right now. As we get more into at-large BCS teams, I'll give this a closer look. In any case, USC's gonna have opportunities to pick up some quality wins. They can move back up.
i think
USC has about the same resume as texas. texas' losses are slightly better than USC's (Oregon/OU are equals and losing to stanford at home is probably a little worse than losing by 20 to k-state at home...but only a little). and neither team has any good wins. not saying USC should necessarily be ranked, but just based on a straight up and down look at wins and losses and point spreads thereof, texas and usc are pretty damn even.
Michigan!
PB, I guess you didn't actually promise, but you almost promised! Or do your rankings not count D 1-AA games, either? Either way, losing to Appy State was Titanic-bad. Hindenburg-bad. Indian Ocean Tsunami-bad. This is like if the Red Sox went and lost a game to a farm league team in three weeks. I know you chalked it up as a bad loss, but this is a Tier-1 loss. As in, Carr almost had his house burned down. Like if an atomic bomb was dropped on Ann Arbor. I just can't bring myself to say "Appalachian State, Big 10 Champions". You're a human, not a computer, you are free to use your poll to punish teams. I suggest that you at least give any team comparable to Michigan the benefit of the doubt. If anyone says it's not fair, you can say "They lost to an FCS team, this is what they get." That's the wages of the sin of buying easy wins.
give michigan a break
i'm no michigan fan, but they have had some impressive wins this seson and they are a better improved team than at the beggining of the seson. i think that they are a top twentnty five team. if they lose to ohio state then you can say that there fake, because honestley that is probably the second toughest game on their schedule, first being oregon.
fire greg davis
I think
Michigan is a pretty good team. I would like to play them in a bowl, although it would require them to collapse and us to lose at least one more game and meet in the Alamo Bowl or something. I just think that if you lose to a D 1 AA team, you don't get to go to the BCS. It should be written into the selection procedures, if only to discourage bullcrap games that should never be played anyway.
I think that PB has ranked them fairly, if you just consider Appy State a bad loss, but I consider it a shame on the entire FBS. I'm not freaking out about it... ok maybe "Indian Ocean Tsunami-bad" is freaking out. Anyway, I just wanted to present my case, PB doesn't have to take me seriously.
Actually
I agree with your placement of Kansas. I might even go so far as to say their resume might be better than ASU's.
All three ASU games I've watched (Colorado, Washington, and Cal) were struggles deep into the second half. But every time I've watched Kansas (with the exception of the KSU game) the outcome was never really in doubt.
Plus, all off the games I've mentioned were home games for ASU, while Kansas has played all of its big games on the road and won solidly, which is a pretty big accomplishment, even in the Big XII.
And as you said, Kansas is the only team that comes to mind that totally demolished its cupcakes.
Close doesn't mean in doubt
ASU looked in the first half like they would lose to Cal, and I believe they fell behind 14-0 to Colorado.
The Kansas-Colorado game was close, but I felt that KU was in control for the most part.
My general point is that both teams have similar resumes, but I've seen ASU 3 times, and KU 4 times, and I think KU actually passes the eyeball test far better than does ASU.
by BrooklynHorn on Oct 30, 2007 11:45 AM CDT up reply actions
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