Texas up to #11 in Coaches Poll

by patienthornsfan on Nov 11, 2007 12:32 PM CST Comment 19 comments

ESPN/USA Today has us moving just ahead of Hawaii. If KU beats Missouri, we should end up back in the Top 10 after we thump the Aggies. Will it be enough to get to a BCS bowl? Looking less and less likely.

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Why less and less likely?

With Michigan and tOSU going down, I think our chances just got a whole lot better.
The only thing in our way now is a undefeated Kansas losing to OU, or UT blowing it in College Station. But a one loss Kansas is not an automatic pick over Texas.

I think Texas gets the nod over a 2 loss Missouri or OU because Texas will be on a 6 game win streak as opposed to coming off a loss.

The Big 10, ACC and Big East will all get one bid unless Hawaii loses. The Pac 10, SEC and Hawaii will take the other three bids.

by Wells on Nov 11, 2007 12:42 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

I guess it depends on the score in the Big XII CG

If it's close, then I think the loser gets the nod, whether it's OU or KU. If KU wins by two TD's (the best scenario I think) then it's easy to pick Texas over OU. I just don't see that happening.

If Hawaii loses to Boise State, then does Boise get the other at large?

My son's name is Blaine. You know he's gotta be tough.

by patienthornsfan on Nov 11, 2007 12:52 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

If USC upsets Arizona State

... does that help or hurt Texas? Or is it a wash because the Pac 10 is gonna get an at large anyway?

My son's name is Blaine. You know he's gotta be tough.

by patienthornsfan on Nov 11, 2007 12:54 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Boise St

I don't think can climb into the top 16 of the BCS, even winning out, but we shall see.

As for the Big 12 championship, even if Kansas plays them close, I don't see a BCS bowl getting excited about a one loss Kansas team, but it it possible.

I think that the conferences that are most likely to get two BCS bids are:

Pac 10 - Baring major upsets, two of three will get the bid: Oregon, USC or ArSt. So the USC ArSt game has little impact to Texas' chances.

Big 12 - I think the big 12 is actually edging closer to being #1. Barring 3 of the big 4 having upset losses, two of four should get a bid: Kansas, Missouri, OU, or UT.

SEC - I thought that they would be #1, but then I actually looked at their records, they really seem to be distributing the losses. But the SEC not getting a second bid is not very likely, but it is likely that it will be a three loss team that gets the bid. Probably the highest ranked team (providing they travel will) that does not go to the championship game or LSU if they lose the championship game.

ACC - Va Tech, Virginia, BC and Clemson are all hoping if they don't win out that they look better than each other and Hawaii loses. Can Clemson or Virginia stay in the top 16 if they lose another game?

Big 10 - If Ohio St loses to Michigan, they are also hoping that Hawaii loses and that a BCS group will overlook the fact that they just lost their last two games. Outside shot for Illinois, Penn St or Wisconsin to get back into the top 16.

Big East - If West Virginia loses to UConn only and Uconn does not lose again, WVU could get a bid, also hoping for a Hawaii loss. I dont know if any other team can get into the top 16.

by Wells on Nov 11, 2007 1:35 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

At larges

As you probably know, each conference can send maximum of two teams to BCS. If we get the nod over the loser of the conference championship game, 95% we will be in. At this point, I don't think we need to care much about Boise or Pac-10.

SEC 2 teams
PAC-10 2 teams
Hawaii/Boise 1 team
ACC 1 team
Big-10 1 team (Winner of OSU Michigan game)
Big East 1 team (Winner of West Virginia UConn game)

That leaves Big-12 with two.

In Mack We Trust.

by Cyrus on Nov 11, 2007 3:32 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Still a lot that could happen

I'm not presuming o.u. wins out. Playing at Tech, and in the annual bedlam game (which they often find a way to lose), o.u. is vulnerable. They may still make it to the Big XII CG, where they could lose a third time. I love any scenario that has the sooners crumbling at the end ...

by NYCHorn on Nov 11, 2007 1:06 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

ps

Texas is 12th in AP

by NYCHorn on Nov 11, 2007 1:26 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Annoying the AP has USC ahead of us

They will lose to ASU, but it still bothers me, just on principle.

At least we've jumped Hawaii in the AP.

My son's name is Blaine. You know he's gotta be tough.

by patienthornsfan on Nov 11, 2007 3:01 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

SEC should only get one bid

Right now, after LSU, only Georgia has two losses. If they lose to LSU in the SEC Title game, they will have three losses. I don't see them getting an at large coming off a loss and with several quality 1-2 loss teams on the board.

The Pac 10 looks really likely to get two bids.

We all need Hawaii to lose, but if they lose to Boise State, it might be possible for BSU to get into the Top 12 which might screw us also. I hate the WAC.

by the1austin on Nov 11, 2007 1:15 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

I don't agree on the SEC

I think a three loss Florida or LSU looks a lot better than a two loss Ohio St, or a three loss ACC, Big 10 or Big East team.

by Wells on Nov 11, 2007 1:38 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Also

I think the odds of the Big 12 not getting 2 bids, even with Boise St taking one of them is very remote. That would mean the Big 12 #2 getting passed on for a three loss ACC team, a two loss Ohio St team (on a two game slide), a two loss WVU, or a three loss Big 10 team for the final spot, none of which seems very likely.

by Wells on Nov 11, 2007 1:42 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Georgia

Actually, if Tennessee and Georgia both win out, then Tennessee goes to the SEC CG ... Georgia would surely get a bid to the Sugar if LSU wins out

Tennessee must beat Vandy and Kentucky to play LSU ... If they drop one of those and Georgia beats Kentucky, then Georgia goes. Tennessee beat Georgia head to head

I think a 1-loss KU team looks good to the selection committee

I don't know why we worry so much, though. There's only one BCS game that really matters. Then you got four other conference champs playing some other teams.

"Excuse me while I whip this out."

by FreedomDip on Nov 11, 2007 1:53 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

To a certian extent

I would agree that there is only one BCS game that matters.

But I think that the national exposure that comes with a BCS bowl, plus the better treatment that the players get at a BCS bowl, equate to a better recruiting pitch for players and better bragging rights for fans. With the way the system is right now, there is more prestige in going to a BCS bowl than playing in the cotton bowl.

by Wells on Nov 11, 2007 2:37 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Here's how I see it playing out...

-Hawaii wins out and finishes in the top 12 to get an auto bid

-Mizzou beats Kansas to hand them their first loss. Mizzou then loses in the title game to OU. Mizzou ends up ranked in the top 4 after the Big 12 title game since their only 2 losses came to OU and gets an auto bid.

-USC upsets Az St and jumps up in the rankings

Now to the bowl games...

National title game: LSU vs Oregon (neither team should lose anymore games this season)

Sugar Bowl: West Virginia vs Mizzou (West Virginia is the replacement pick for losing LSU to the title game and Mizzou is an auto bid for finishing in the top 4)

Rose Bowl: Ohio St. vs USC (Ohio St. wins Big 10. USC beats Az St. next week and ends up being selected as a replacement for losing Oregon to the title game. I think the Rose Bowl will try to maintain the traditional Big 10 vs Pac 10 matchup here).

Orange Bowl: Va Tech vs Georgia (Va Tech wins ACC and Georgia is selected from the at large pool. This is the most likely place I see UT winding up if we end up getting an at large. Georgia really isn't that great, and the selection committee might see Texas as the most attractive option here. A one loss Kansas is also a possibility to be chosen over UT.)

Fiesta Bowl: OU vs Hawaii (OU wins Big 12 and Hawaii finishes undefeated.)

Assuming that OU wins the Big 12, where do you see Kansas/Missouri finishing? I had Missouri finishing 4th ahead of Ohio St (5), West Va (6), and Kansas (7). Do you think that after beating Kansas and coming off a loss to OU that they still end up top 4? Or will they fall below Ohio St. and West Virginia? If Hawaii loses and either Mizzou/Kansas fail to finish top 4, then I think our chances get a whole lot better.

by HornsNation on Nov 11, 2007 3:18 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

No way

Missouri loses the big 12 championship and stays in the top 4.

by Wells on Nov 11, 2007 4:09 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Agreed, no way does Mizzou

lose another game in general and finish in the top 4. Their win over Illinois is looking pretty good right now, but a loss in the last game guarantees at least a 3-5 place drop in the BCS rankings.

by the1austin on Nov 11, 2007 4:18 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

This is also possible

If Missouri beats Kansas and loses to OU in the Big 12 title game, then they probably finish around 6 or so. I think UT would get chosen over Missouri coming off a loss in the title game and a 1 loss Kansas.

Then, we would have LSU-Oregon in the title game, USC/Az St-Ohio St in the Rose Bowl, West Virginia-? in the Sugar Bowl, Virginia Tech-? in the Orange Bowl, and OU-? in the Fiesta Bowl. Rose Bowl chooses a Pac 10 team to replace Oregon and the Sugar Bowl takes West Virginia. Then, the only other auto bid would be Hawaii.

So, the Orange Bowl picks first and will take some at large team, lets say Georgia. Hawaii isn't all that attractive, and will probably get chosen last.

Next, the Fiesta Bowl has a choice: it can take Hawaii or another at large. Could they take Texas and set up RRS part II? Wouldn't that make it one of the most watched games in the country? Two traditional rivals playing each other when the stakes are highest? I know they could always just take Arizona St, but what's the fun in that?

by HornsNation on Nov 11, 2007 3:44 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

re

1- Only 2 from each conference can go to BCS. So, Arizona St, Oregan and USC can not all play in BCS bowls.

2- I think automatic berths have to be selected before at-larges. So, if that's correct, Hawaii should be the first to be selected. I'm not sure about this though.

In Mack We Trust.

by Cyrus on Nov 11, 2007 4:15 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I think

it is that the automatic tie ins have to go first, but not automatic berths. For example, Boise St went to Fiesta last year, because they had last pick.

by Wells on Nov 11, 2007 5:05 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs