13th?! in the BCS?
by Tstick33 on Nov 11, 2007 7:06 PM CST
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PrintCan someone please help me understand why we are only 13th in the latest BCS Standings? I thought we would be atleast 11th. How is a 3 loss Florida team before us, along with USC that moved up to 11th? Just a little frustrated and confused. Florida beat a lowly South Carolina team and Southern California beat a Cal team that has looked bad for the past month. Please leave your opinions below. Thanks.
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About Right
Texas is #12 in the Harris poll and #11 in USA Today. The computers still don't love us, so #13 very much expected.
Why so upset? Our BCS ranking matters very little. If we win in College Station, we'll finish 10-2, on a six game winning streak, and will be in great position to grab an at-large bid.
Agree
I think our spot is about right. Yes, Texas is looking pretty good with a 9-2 record, but you have to thinking about those 9 wins. We have yet to beat a ranked opponent. The best team we've defeated is either Texas Tech or Oklahoma State. And we've struggled against a lot of lesser opponents as well.
USC should not be ranked that high. Like us, they have yet to defeat a good opponent, but the home upset by Stanford should really put them a lot lower.
As for Florida, their 3 losses are against very good LSU, Georgia, and Auburn. The LSU and Auburn games were lost by a narrow margin. They have a couple of notable wins against South Carolina, Kentucky, and Tennessee by a pretty good amount.
Surprisingly enough
our best win is probably against UCF, not TTech or Okie lites.
PS. #13 is about right.
Florida's wins not that good.
Auburn is a four loss team. I don't care to who they lost to, four losses are still four losses. South Carolina is merely mediocre at best. Thats like us beating Tech. Kentucky was just an anomoly and they are coming back to down to earth.
The only reason Florida is ranked ahead of us is because they play in the greatest conference the universe has and will ever know, the SEC.
It really is all relevant b/c we will pass them as other teams fall of because of attrition. My only concern is Kansas going 12-1 and jacking our at-large bid.
by dsmith on Nov 11, 2007 7:30 PM CST up reply actions
Texas Tech has 3 out of 4 also
You have to remember that Tech lost to Oklahoma State and was blown out by MIZZOU in the last month. South Carolina is in a free fall and so is Cal, but Tech hasn't done anything to distinguish themselves from those teams.
Our last three wins have been against three mediocre teams. They may have been great, come from behind, dramatic wins, but that doesn't matter. None of the teams have been ranked, and our position in the polls is a reflection of that.
Since the KSU/OU losses, look at the teams we have beaten.
Iowa State: 3-8
Nebraska: 5-6
Oklahoma State: 5-5
Tech: 7-4
K-State has dropped to 5-5.
Kansas
It doesn't matter how Kansas finishes unless they beat OU in the Big 12 championship game. If OU loses we have no shot at a BCS game because they will claim the at-large berth. If TX beats the farmers and OU wins in San Antonio then we have a pretty good shot to get the at-large. Records will not be a factor because the bowls are making an economic decision and we travel better than Kansas and Missouri plus we are a more nationally visible program. Here's what I think is the optimal scenario
OU - Fiesta Bowl (12-1)
Texas - Orange Bowl (10-2)
Kansas - Cotton Bowl (12-1)
Missouri - Holiday Bowl (10-2)
If we do not get an at large then we will probably end up in San Diego. Just my opinion.
Avg #20 in computer polls
And that will improve, assuming the Horns take care of business in college station. A lot of the teams ahead of us in the computer rankings will play each other, or at least have a tough game or two remaining, not to mention conference championship games.
Fightin' Manginos
Can you imagine how pissed off that beached whale Mangino will be if Texas makes a BCS game over KU? (Remember his rant after we beat them in Lawrence to eventually make it to the Rose Bowl against Michigan?)
That man is about 2 Big Macs away from a coronary and getting snubbed in the BCS would put him in the grave.
Re:
Rule 1: The BCS is about making the bowls money (i.e., won't travel or draw ratings).
Rule 2: The only team to lose its conference championship game and go on to a BCS bowl is Oklahoma (after losing to K-State, they still automatically qualified for the MNC). Keep in mind that there were 2 less at-large spots until last year.
Rule 3: The bowls don't like selecting a team that lost its last game, because that team's fans has "lost momentum." Thus, rule 2.
I know I said not to talk about Texas until after they win out, but if Texas wins against A&M, I can't see any reason why they wouldn't be selected.
First, let's note that any team ranked 3 or 4 in the final BCS standings is guaranteed an at-large. This shouldn't be a problem. Hawaii will also likely be in the top 14 should they beat Boise State and remain undefeated and would thus be guaranteed a spot. For the purposes of this, we're assuming best-case scenarios for the likely candidates, such as Oregon (as mentioned below):
The Pac-10 looks extremely likely to garner 2 bids between Oregon, Arizona State and USC. This is assuming Oregon wins out, in which they will more than likely finish 2 or 3. The ASU-USC winner takes care of the other bid.
The SEC, likewise, will hold on to two spots. The first is LSU's in the MNC; the second is whoever finishes second in the East. The winner of the East goes on to lose in the Conf. Championship, thereby leaving the second place team as the most desireable (out of Florida, Georgia and Kentucky). If LSU loses the CC, they still have a chance at one of the at larges, or both at larges come from the East.
The Big 10 has no chance at a 2 bids. Likewise with the ACC. In the Big East, only West Virginia has a shot at an at-large.
Finally, the Big 12. The loser of Mizzou-Kansas will finsh the season with a loss. Neither team is steeped with tradition. They're out. If OU wins the CC, same story. Note: the Mizzou-Kansas loser has a remote chance of ending up in one of the 3-4 spots, should other teams ahead of them fall. The drop-off after losing seems to be about 7 spots, so they'd fall to 10th and have a small chance of moving back up after other teams lose. If OU loses...then we'd be fighting with OU for the at-large. In this scenario, I think we'd come out ahead because or the aforementioned rules.
So to recap: 2 CCs will go on to the MNC. The remaining 4 CCs garner the automatic bids. 2 additional bids are taken by the Pac-10 2 and the SEC 2. 1 is taken by Hawaii (or perhaps even Boise State). 1 spot is left. That's between the Big XII and a possibly two-loss West Virginia.
That looks to be how it'll shake out. Of course, as SMQ likes to say, this'll all be different next week. And now, back to your regularly scheduled programming of not discussing this until after the A&M game.
Hawaii
I don't see Hawaii beating Boise St. I know the game is in Hawaii but something tells me they will have their hands full with Boise. Boise has it goin' on right now and they actually have a defense - Hawaii is much like Tech.....the "defense" is just some players running around trying to give the offense a breather.
Who have we played??
Sagarin Rankings of 4-best Wins:
USC Florida Texas
#33 Cal #16 Tennessee #47 OU-Lite
#36 OregonSt #21 Kentucky #51 Nebraska
#51 Nebraska #32 S.Carolina #52 UCF
#65 WashSt #41 Troy #61 TexasTech
LOSSES:
#3 Oregon #2 LSU #7 OU
#84 Stanford #10 Georgia #60 KansasSt
#27 Auburn
SOS = #41 #2 #59
Both USC and Florida have better victories and better losses. The strength of schedule is decidedly in their favor. It is no wonder the computers jumped them over UT. But you have to be willing to look at it objectively.
PostScript: Don't forget USC was a 4th & 10 (with just 2 minutes remaining) away from winning the game with Stanford.
Sorry,
But you cannot rationalize the loss to Stanford. That's like saying Michigan was a blocked field goal away from beating Appalachian State. Texas and USC are basically even in resume at this point. If USC beats ASU, they'll be ahead of us. Right now, I'd call it even. Stanford is the worst team on that list, and USC lost to them.
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