Texas is #12 in the Harris poll and #11 in USA Today. The computers still don't love us, so #13 very much expected.

Why so upset? Our BCS ranking matters very little. If we win in College Station, we'll finish 10-2, on a six game winning streak, and will be in great position to grab an at-large bid.

You have to remember that Tech lost to Oklahoma State and was blown out by MIZZOU in the last month.  South Carolina is in a free fall and so is Cal, but Tech hasn't done anything to distinguish themselves from those teams.

Our last three wins have been against three mediocre teams.  They may have been great, come from behind, dramatic wins, but that doesn't matter.  None of the teams have been ranked, and our position in the polls is a reflection of that.

Since the KSU/OU losses, look at the teams we have beaten.

Iowa State:  3-8
Nebraska:  5-6
Oklahoma State:  5-5
Tech:  7-4  

K-State has dropped to 5-5.

It doesn't matter how Kansas finishes unless they beat OU in the Big 12 championship game.  If OU loses we have no shot at a BCS game because they will claim the at-large berth. If TX beats the farmers and OU wins in San Antonio then we have a pretty good shot to get the at-large.  Records will not be a factor because the bowls are making an economic decision and we travel better than Kansas and Missouri plus we are a more nationally visible program.  Here's what I think is the optimal scenario

OU - Fiesta Bowl (12-1)
Texas - Orange Bowl (10-2)
Kansas - Cotton Bowl (12-1)
Missouri - Holiday Bowl (10-2)

If we do not get an at large then we will probably end up in San Diego.  Just my opinion.

Rule 1: The BCS is about making the bowls money (i.e., won't travel or draw ratings).

Rule 2: The only team to lose its conference championship game and go on to a BCS bowl is Oklahoma (after losing to K-State, they still automatically qualified for the MNC). Keep in mind that there were 2 less at-large spots until last year.

Rule 3: The bowls don't like selecting a team that lost its last game, because that team's fans has "lost momentum." Thus, rule 2.

I know I said not to talk about Texas until after they win out, but if Texas wins against A&M, I can't see any reason why they wouldn't be selected.

First, let's note that any team ranked 3 or 4 in the final BCS standings is guaranteed an at-large. This shouldn't be a problem. Hawaii will also likely be in the top 14 should they beat Boise State and remain undefeated and would thus be guaranteed a spot. For the purposes of this, we're assuming best-case scenarios for the likely candidates, such as Oregon (as mentioned below):

The Pac-10 looks extremely likely to garner 2 bids between Oregon, Arizona State and USC. This is assuming Oregon wins out, in which they will more than likely finish 2 or 3. The ASU-USC winner takes care of the other bid.

The SEC, likewise, will hold on to two spots. The first is LSU's in the MNC; the second is whoever finishes second in the East. The winner of the East goes on to lose in the Conf. Championship, thereby leaving the second place team as the most desireable (out of Florida, Georgia and Kentucky). If LSU loses the CC, they still have a chance at one of the at larges, or both at larges come from the East.

The Big 10 has no chance at a 2 bids. Likewise with the ACC. In the Big East, only West Virginia has a shot at an at-large.

Finally, the Big 12. The loser of Mizzou-Kansas will finsh the season with a loss. Neither team is steeped with tradition. They're out. If OU wins the CC, same story. Note: the Mizzou-Kansas loser has a remote chance of ending up in one of the 3-4 spots, should other teams ahead of them fall. The drop-off after losing seems to be about 7 spots, so they'd fall to 10th and have a small chance of moving back up after other teams lose. If OU loses...then we'd be fighting with OU for the at-large. In this scenario, I think we'd come out ahead because or the aforementioned rules.

So to recap: 2 CCs will go on to the MNC. The remaining 4 CCs garner the automatic bids. 2 additional bids are taken by the Pac-10 2 and the SEC 2. 1 is taken by Hawaii (or perhaps even Boise State). 1 spot is left. That's between the Big XII and a possibly two-loss West Virginia.

That looks to be how it'll shake out. Of course, as SMQ likes to say, this'll all be different next week. And now, back to your regularly scheduled programming of not discussing this until after the A&M game.