BCS Selections: One Week to Go
by awiggo on Nov 25, 2007 12:48 PM CST
in Texas Longhorns Football
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PrintAfter the results from Friday and Saturday, the BCS bowl picture became a little clearer but with three BCS conference championship games still to come, there remain a number of possible scenarios.
Assuming Missouri, LSU, and Virginia Tech win on Saturday, here is what the BCS bowls would look like:
National Championship: Missouri vs. West Virginia
Both teams play on Saturday, with the Tigers facing the tougher challenge in the Sooners in San Antonio.
Rose Bowl: Ohio State vs. USC
The Rose automatically matches the Big 10 and Pac 10 champs as long as neither is in the top two in the BCS.
Fiesta Bowl: Kansas vs. Arizona State
The Fiesta would lose the Big 12 champ (Missouri) and would make the first replacement pick. Assuming the Fiesta Bowl wants another Big 12 team, they would go with KU at 11-1 over 10-3 OU. Arizona State would be the pick after the Orange Bowl’s first pick. I am assuming the Sun Devils beat Mike Stoops to finish at 10-2.
Sugar Bowl: LSU vs. Hawaii
The SEC champion Tigers would land in New Orleans automatically. If the Warriors finish in the top 12, they will automatically be BCS bound. This year the Sugar Bowl must pick last and will be forced to select Hawaii, just as the Fiesta was forced to take Boise State last year.
Orange Bowl: Virginia Tech vs. Georgia
The ACC champion automatically heads to Miami and the Orange Bowl gets the first pick after any replacement selections. At 10-2, Georgia is a no-brainer.
But, let’s throw in some craziness. Now let’s assume that OU wins the Big 12 instead of the Tigers.
National Championship: Ohio State vs. West Virginia
The Buckeyes are in the safest place possible this season: at home.
Rose Bowl: _____ vs. USC
In this scenario, the Rose Bowl would be the one making the replacement selection having lost Ohio State. Would the Rose take 10-2 Georgia and expect Dawg fans to travel cross country? Maybe. What about 11-1 Kansas? Don’t know. What if they wanted to maintain the Big 10 / Pac 10 standard. Would the Rose pick Illinois and cause the Big 12 to get just a single team? Just for kicks, let’s say they take the Illini.
Fiesta Bowl: Oklahoma vs. Arizona State
OU because the Big 12 champ automatically goes to Glendale and the Sun Devils as a Pac 10 at-large.
Sugar Bowl: LSU vs. Hawaii
Same as above.
Orange Bowl:Virginia Tech vs. Georgia
Same as above.
Also,
If Hawaii automatically qualifies, it will be tough for the ACC championship loser (Va Tech or Boston College) to land an at-large selction.
If LSU loses the SEC championship, they will drop out of the BCS and Tennessee and Georgia will represent the SEC in BCS bowls.
If the Big 12 only puts one team in the BCS (ie OU in the Fiesta), the Gator Bowl will be allowed to pick a Big 12 team ahead of the Cotton and Holiday bowls, thus selecting Kansas. This would put Missouri in the Cotton and Texas in the Holiday.
If West Virginia and Missouri both lose,...BCS chaos. Ohio State would be in the National Championship, but its anyone’s guess who their opponent would be. 10-2 Georgia? 11-2 LSU? But the Tigers could still lose. 11-2 Virginia Tech? But the Hokies could still lose and already have once this season to BC. How about 10-2 USC or 11-2 OU? It could happen. What a year!
--AW--
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Imagine:
- The second scenario you described, with OU winning the Big 12.
and
- Texas having beat A&M.
We could have gone to the effing Rose Bowl.
I was about to ask the same thing
But would the Rose really have taken a 10-2 Texas team over an 11-1 Kansas? If KU had been blown out by Mizzou, I could see the Rose taking us but I think it's obvious KU is playing a better brand of football right now even if UT had bean Aggie. Could be wrong as money talks though we'll never know now.
Still, I'm not seeing how this Aggie loss changed much as far as bowl invites go for UT given the way yesterday played out.
If anything, the Aggies may have done us a favor as Mack may just shake some things up at the DC spot. Something I seriously doubt he would have done at 10-2.
I'm assuming you also noticed the "Quotes" section under the A&M game had 3 short paragraphs compared to the six pages of "Quotes" under the Tech recap. It also excluded JC's very telling frustration (Quote of the year by the way). Reminds me of that Sports Center commercial where the anchor hands that mascot $50 after he stole the NASCAR and says, "you got big ones my friend, big ones.
Mack has always been good about playing it close to the vest and not giving the media any fodder. But the one consistent thing is when he's silent, you know things are getting tossed around behind closed doors. I think he was genuinely taken aback by the way his team performed on Saturday as we all were.
He has precedent for changing his DC(s) and I wouldn't be suprised if he did it again, especially if we get our brains beat in at the bowl game.
USA Today Out
Kansas didn't drop nearly as far as I thought they would. The Jayhawks are in a tie for 5th. The Harris Poll will be released later today. Coming into the week, KU had very good computer strength. If they can stay in the top 4 in the BCS, they will be an automatic selection, regardless of what happens in San Antonio.
I am wrong
Georgia is a BCS conference team that is also in the top 4 and ranked ahead of Kansas. The top 4 rule can't apply for teams ranked #3 and #4. The rule only applies if none of the other top 4 teams are getting in as at-large selections.
If Georgia stays at #3 and ahead of Kansas, it doesn't matter if KU moves up to #4 with a Missouri or West Va loss. They still wouldn't be an automatic selection under BCS rules.
Georgia
I don't think that the Rose would hesitate to take the Dawgs with their replacement pick if OSU gets to the title game. Yeah, Illinois keep the Big 10/Pac 10 matchup intact, but they have 3 losses and they might not even be BCS eligible. UGA is one of the hottest teams in the country, as is USC, and the Rose Bowl execs would drool over this type of a matchup of two old money schools. Also, Georgia may get an automatic at-large bid (much like Texas in '04) if they finish in the BCS top 4 next Sunday.
If OU wins the Big XII title, I would project:
BCS Title: West Virginia vs. Ohio State
Orange: Virginia Tech vs. Kansas/Mizzou
(Interesting situation for the Orange here, would they go with the 1 loss Jayhawks, or the 2 loss Tigers that gave the Jayhawks their only loss? Hard to tell...)
Fiesta: Oklahoma vs. Arizona State
Sugar: LSU vs. Hawaii
Rose: USC vs. Georgia
You're probably right,
but I'll throw a curve ball in your scenario. The Orange Bowl gets to pick before the Fiesta. Missouri and Kansas will have both just lost while Az State would be 10-2 and just beat Arizona. Would the Orange take the Sun Devils and leave the Fiesta to take Kansas, Missouri, or maybe even Illinois if they wanted to avoid a Big 12 / Big 12 matchup.
Just a thought.
Interesting thought...
That's definitely plausible since both KU and Mizzou would be coming off of losses. Financially for the Orange Bowl, I think KU, Mizzou, and ASU are all on a fairly even playing field. Geographically though, KU or Mizzou would likely draw more fans. I'm glad you brought that up though, because it's often very hard to tell.
As far as "avoiding" certain matchups, there is a clause in the BCS that lets the big wigs shuffle the matchups around to make the most money, avoid rematches, etc. It's never been used, but may come into play if unfavorable (Big XII vs. Big XII) matchups come about like you mentioned.
by Sweed4Heisman on Nov 25, 2007 2:31 PM CST up reply actions
And for even more craziness
UCLA beats USC, Arizona beats Arizona State sending the 7-5 Bruins of UCLA to the Rose Bowl as Pac-10 Champions.
THAT...WILL...NOT...HAPPEN!
ucla will not beat USC. there is too much chaos on that team right now with injuries and the Dorrell situation.
SC is more focused this year and they are more healthy going into that game.
Sounds familiar
where did I hear that before...let me think...oh thats right, it was all over this blog the week leading up to the A&M game.
by BrooklynHorn on Nov 26, 2007 2:32 PM CST up reply actions
I think
it should be a rule that you can't play for the National Championship game if you can't win your own conference; not if we're only going to pick two teams to get a chance. granted, that's probably an argument for a playoff, but if Georgia can't even get into their own conference championship game, i think their argument for playing for the national championship game is pretty weak, regardless of how hot they are right now. that they or Kansas might have a chance to end up in one of the top two spots just speaks to how screwed up the ranking system is.
by littlevisigoth on Nov 26, 2007 11:46 AM CST reply actions
Hmmm, playoff any one?
USC doesn't deserve to play for the NC, period. Now if a playoff system was in place, I would be thrilled to watch us try and earn our way into that spot. Alas...
I think we will beat the powder blue boys this weekend and snag a 6th conference title and a Rose Bowl invite, probably to face OSU. If OSU slips into the NC game, as much as the Pac10-Big Ten matchup holds with tradition, Illinois still would have to move up in the BCS to even be eligile (as Sweed4 mentioned) as the Rose Bowl backup. If that doesn't happen, it will be interesting to see who they pick.
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