BCS Breakdown: 2007 Week 7

Resident math guru Horn Brain checks in with the latest numbercentric look at the BCS.

There are five stages of grief:

Denial:  We were the better team, right?  We were coming back in the 4th, and we just needed a half-yard on that 3rd down.  We were robbed!  (This was a very, very short stage)

Anger:  Why does this always happen to us?  Akina is a tool!  Fire his ass!  And that MacDuff dweeb!  What has he done all year, anyway?  Surely he wasn't teaching tackling or coverage.  Come to think of it, go ahead and fire Davis, too!  Even if we had had a decent defense, they would have been tired anyway since Greg won't pass down field against the worst secondary in the Big 12!  Dammit Greg!  Let Colt run the damn ball, remember?!?  Dammit! (I may still be here)

Bargaining:  We can still get to a good bowl game.  If we get Oregon, at least our defense will look good again.  Oh crap, what if we get ASU?  Well, at least Mack will have to fire Akina then... sigh... (segue into...)

Depression:  This is just like every non-VY year... Mack is slipping back into alternate Cotton/Holiday Bowl mode.  We got out-coached by Callahan and Franchione, and they're getting the boot while we pay Mack and his staff $3 million+...  Maybe it was all an illusion, after all.  Mack is 11-9 against A&M and OU (Still depressing even in stage 5...)

Acceptance:  Well we've kind of squandered this year, but next year we've got a bunch of guys coming back, and 7 home games with a much more interesting schedule.  Plus, we're looking crazy good in basketball, not to mention Kyle Russell is back for another year on the diamond.  Volleyball is a #1 seed in the tourney...  You know what?  It's going to be OK...

On to the madness! Click here for the rest of this post.

Outliers:
I'm not putting up that horrible table with the actual numbers in it for each team this week, but if you're interested, I'll post it in the comments.  Instead, we'll go straight to graphic madness:

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So this week we have Mizzou, Georgia, Kansas, OU, Wisconsin, Texas, South Florida and Boise State sticking out all suspicious-like.  Last week I decided to put these deviants into one of two categories, and this week is no different.  Remember that unexpected performances tend to bring about this high standard deviation, and that I don't group Wisconsin here because I've decided I hate them.  No reason.

Inconsistent play:
Georgia, OU, TEXAS (Yeah, still stuck in anger), SFU.  Remember how everyone worried that SFU would get into the NC game because the computers loved them for some unknown reason?  Yeah, they still love them (#15), and no, I still don't know why.

Weak Schedule/Not Enough Information:
Mizzou, Kansas, Boise.  Mizzou has squandered away a win in one of its two really significant games, and Kansas flat choked under the bright lights, just like I said they wouldn't, which makes the other game look less significant.  Boise's here because they won the Fiesta Bowl last year.  The computers don't rank them, but the humans still think they can Statue of Liberty anyone to death on any given Saturday.

Screw Wisconsin for beating lame Michigan's backups.

I picked Texas to win big on Friday just like most of you, but it's pretty clear that I was drinking the Kool-Aid.  My own numbers put us in the same category with Kansas, Boise, Hawaii, Wisconsin, etc, but I just chalked it up to us being on a tear that the computers hadn't caught up with yet.  At least this gives my predictor equation some support... (Bargaining again)

Billingsley Report Card:
I tried naming this section something less Billingsley-oriented last week, but once I saw the numbers for this week, I realized I was just kidding myself.  Why pretend that this section can discuss anything but the impossibly hodge-podge list of numbers that is the Billingsley computer poll?  This madness may disturb those of you who respect common sense:

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Well, at this point there's little to actually say.  Thrown out of the computer poll 16 times out of 25, Billingsley has West Virginia and Ohio State in his championship game right now.  He's a total goober about almost every other team, too.  Hell, I just put these up in the hopes that someone from the BCS sees it and boots this loser.

Lesson of the Week:
Listen to the numbers, because they aren't trying to trick you.

One last thing:
Anyone have any idea what it means for your standard deviation to be freakishly low compared to the predictor?  I can't come up with what it means.  Any suggestions will be greatly appreciated.

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