Who Will Replace Kevin Durant's Scoring?
by Peter Bean on Nov 27, 2007 5:52 PM CST
in Texas Longhorns Basketball
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PrintThat was the million dollar question, right? And the lead to every single article written about Texas this preseason.
Your early answer:
Everybody's picked up the slack so far, with some nice early scoring from Alexis "Wingman" Wangmene. (Hat Tip to Caradoc for the appropriate nickname for our long-armed freshman.)
We're only five games in, so we don't want to read too much into such a small sample size, but there's no denying that the early returns are Best Case Scenario. Are they sustainable? Let's go player by player:
AJ Abrams Is Abrams a 23 points per game player? Considering his inability to create his own shot (or draw fouls doing so), I don't think so. That incredibly quick release is something to behold, and Lord knows he's as good a three point shooter as I've ever seen at Texas, but he's shooting at an unsustainable pace right now - both in terms of open looks and percentage of shots made. With improved all-around game and the quick release, I think 18 points per game is doable.
DJ Augustin No fluke here. In fact, Augustin's scoring average may go up as the season goes on. Unlike Abrams, DJ has the ability to get himself a look almost any time he wants it. Those running floaters he's hitting are Steve Nashesque. And I suppose it's worth saying that if AJ Abrams does score 23 a game? It'll be because of what Augustin can do to break down a defense with his penetration.
Connor Atchley Texas is going to be in great shape if Atchley's averaging double-digit points per game. So far he's hit 7 of his 10 three point attempts, and while he's not going to shoot 70% on the year, he has a solid stroke if he's selective about when he pulls the trigger. More than that, though, Atchley's doing a great job of putting himself in good position to take advantage of forwards wandering to help stop Augustin penetration. Like TJ Ford's beneficiaries before him, Atchley can cash that into 10+ points per game as well.
Justin Mason About what I'd expect from Mason so far. He's not found his jump shot yet, but is always around loose balls and unafraid to get to the rim. If he can find his stroke? 12-15 points per game is well within reach.
Damion James His rebounding is as important as anything else, but the development of his offensive game is a huge boost to this post-Durant team. He's going to have games where he scores 20+, but others where he's relatively uninvolved in the scoring. Seems right on average to me.
Alexis Wangmene With those arms, he's going to be a factor near the rim. He's more a defense-rebound guy for now, but chipping in 5 points per game seems doable.
CONCLUSION
It's looking pretty darn good right now, thanks to Augustin's leap forward as a point guard. And lest we forget, this analysis does not include potential contributions from Gary Johnson, who could be a double-double guy by the time conference play rolls around.
Do I wish Kevin Durant were still here? Of course. Am I already in love with this year's team? No question about it. We're as exciting as last year, with Augustin the new superhero. No joke.
--PB--
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Replacing Durant's scoring
On the positive side, I think this team won't have to score as much, because our defense and rebounding will improve over the season, especially when Gary Johnson can play. Our conditioning is up as well, which will lead to more garbage buckets, and us having to play zone less (though we will still have to play it, due to the amount of time two under 6' guards play)
On the negative, this team has been hyped a lot after one great game against a top 10 team who played a very poor game. Opponents will try to lock down on DJ and AJ, and we'll have to get more low post scoring. Also, AJ will struggle a lot more against the more physical Big 12 guards. Don't be surprised if this team struggles to score at times. However, with a great point guard like DJ I don't think this will happen that often.
My estimates for this year:
AJ - 17 ppg
DJ - 17 ppg
Mason - 11 ppg
James - 10 ppg
Atchley - 9 ppg
Wangmene - 8 ppg
Gary Johnson (when he plays) - 13 ppg
Aggie joke
Four college students are traveling in an airplane that is low on fuel. First, the Wolverine yells "this is for Michigan!" and leaps to his death. Next, the Buckeye gets up, yells "this is for Ohio State!" and jumps to his death. Finally, the Longhorn steps forward, yells "this is for Texas!", and throws the Aggie out.
Wangmene is a beast
I can't wait to see Barnes develop that kid. You get the feeling he came out of the womb with those muscles.
You have to wonder what would have happened to Dion Dowell and Mike Williams under Rick and his staff.
Just look at Atchley. Lets be honest. CA was a joke the last two years. He was our whipping boy on BON the entire season last year. And now? He looks like a completely different person. Who would have thought he had that kind of athleticism and skill?
Barnes could have worked wonders with Dowell and Wiliams. Too bad they were young and inpatient.
We might have a name for Wang and Dex
That's courtesy of Andy Katz, who has been giving the Horns some serious love the past two seasons.
Barnes also experimented with a huge frontline of Atchley and the beef brothers of Dexter Pittman (6-10 and 299 pounds) and Alexis Wangmene (6-7 and 241 pounds) with Abrams and Augustin on the perimeter.
How does that name grab you?
by patienthornsfan on Nov 28, 2007 4:38 AM CST up reply actions
A more complete team
I think the relative experience of this team compared to the last and better conditioning have made a big deal so far. That should continue into the season. It has been nice to see Connor's development. I always thought he showed flashes of the player he could become and the battle with Connor was mostly with himself. Even though he has a solid stroke, he should shoot open threes without any confidence. He'd make a good play, then make one equally as bad. He's more consistent now and you can see his confidence developing, which is huge for a player like him. Think a guy like DJ suffers crises of confidence? Connor's big problem right now I noticed in the Tennessee game is that he doesn't box out well. He tries, but you see him consistently getting pushed around because he use any leverage to move the defender backwards--a critical part of blocking out. He gets into position and then gets pushed back out. I think I probably saw it 5 or 6 times against the fake UT.
by ghostoftheplaymaker4 on Nov 27, 2007 9:20 PM CST reply actions
Agreed
Connor got killed in the low post last year and is only marginally better this year. That's going to be a problem for this team again this year, especially without Johnson in there banging away fearlessly.
USC just slaughtered us around the rim in our elimination game.
Is he really a #2?
Could be that the problem all along has been using Atchley as a low post center. Maybe his best position is as a #2. Against TN his best minutes were with Pittman on the floor playing low.
He did get
11 rebounds in that game, so as long as that keeps happening, I don't mind him getting push around.
UT vs Texas Southern
Can you say "favorable matchups"?
Of the TSU players that get the majority of the minutes, one player is 6'7", one is 6'6", and the rest of them are 6'3" or shorter.
I don't think we'll have to worry about getting pounded on the boards tomorrow...
Hopefully their lack of size translates to DEXTER DOMINATION!
by goingforthecorner on Nov 27, 2007 10:50 PM CST reply actions
2 things about AJ
last season AJ pretty much scored from deep outside on catch and shoot type plays. If he got the ball in rhythm he shot a good percentage.
2 things are different this season, when AJ drives to the basket he actually makes a good shot. Last season he would drive and end up just throwing the ball towards the hoop and praying. Last season a little tight defense on AJ could mess up his rhythm and shot. This season since he's a threat to drive the defense will have to keep some distance which might give him a few more opportunities and help keep up a higher percentage.
Secondly Aj seems to have worked on his midrange set shot since last season. He's made a few in the mid range and it looks like he has much more confidence in taking that shot.
Adding both those scoring possibilities might add 5 or 6 points to his average.
Watched a bit of the Duke/Wisconsin game
as much as I could bear to watch a Duke blowout with Dickie V on the mike. I have to believe unless Wisconsin does a lot of growing between now and 12/29, we should dismantle them as or more easily than the Dukies did. Our gaurd play should eat them alive, as their transition defense was atrocious last night, and they just didn't have enough speed to shut down the dribble drive. Their offensive stud appears to be their forward Butch and they looked fairly well organized in the half court set with that rotating and back-cutting offense, but the pressure defense from Duke threw them way off. The points off turnovers tally was 14-0 Duke at the half.
Bottom line, color me not scared of the matchup with the Badgers.
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