Predictions!
by Peter Bean on Dec 26, 2007 12:34 PM CST
in Football
13 comments
And finally, a few opportunities for me to look stupid as the game plays out in an entirely different manner from the way I'm projecting!
1. Chris McGaha will find the end zone. Sun Devils fans have been dying for this kid to find the end zone. I assure them: we can help. Texas has proven itself especially incompetent at stopping speedy white guys. ASU's coaches have no doubt seen video tape of last year's Alamo Bowl and this year's K-State game. I'm at the point where I'll be downright shocked if this kid scores fewer than two times against us.
2. Jermichael Finley will have a big game. While Jamaal Charles is Texas' most explosive offensive weapon, Finley may present the biggest matchup problem for the Sun Devils. That's true for most teams Texas plays, and Davis only remembers this about twice a season, but I'm guessing that with a month to get ready for this one, Finley will be an integral part of the game plan. Assuming he doesn't drop passes like he did against A&M, I'm expecting a nice night for him.
3. If either team picks up a special teams score, it will win. Texas' margin for error on defense is too slim to be giving up gobs of yardage - let alone scores - on special teams. On the flipside, Arizona State ranks in the bottom third nationally in kick coverage; if Texas can steal a big play or two on returns of their own, it'll go a long way towards picking up a win.
4. ASU fans will outnumber Texas fans in the stadium. The ASU athletic department sold their bank of tickets to this game within a week and had to direct Sun Devils supporters to the Texas office to hunt for extras. San Diego is easy enough to access from Tempe, and there's undoubtedly a healthy number of ASU grads living in San Diego/Southern California. I'm expecting a 65% or more share of the crowd for ASU.
5. John Chiles will play. Call it a hunch, but I think we're going to see John Chiles used in this football game. After the A&M letdown, I'm guessing Texas' coaches will be eager to Get Creative! in the season finale. If we're lucky, Chiles won't just be used on one or two gimmick plays, but will be creatively integrated into the game plan for a more systemic advantage.
6. Texas 38 Arizona State 37 There are so many reasons to pick ASU in this game. Perhaps more reasons than there are to pick the 'Horns. But I can't do it. Maybe I'm wishcasting, but I think the Texas offense can outgun the Sun Devils if it comes to that. Given our pass defense, it probably will come to that. And though my head says ASU should be the favorites in this one, I'm dreaming of a strong offensive performance from the 'Horns. Hey, I'm not a scientist - I'm a fan.
Enjoy the game everyone. Folks who will be in San Diego on either Wednesday night or Thursday for the game, email me if you want to get together. 54b and I will be staying at the Gaslamp Hilton and looking for trouble fun.
--PB--
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IMO
If Chiles plays and doesn't show any improvement in the passing game it may be time to debate pulling the plug.
Naysayers will claim, "but VY didn't improve until his junior year".
Chiles aint VY as an athlete or a runner. Reliance on ad lib 3rd and 20 conversions is not a possibility for him. Moderate progress in his throwing skills are a must if he is going to be a viable QB for the future.
It will be interesting to see. Luckily his HS highlights show him to be an elite and fantastic WR. Something Texas badly needs. Maybe they intend to utilize the same plays as in the first half of the season by splitting him out at flanker.
An interesting sub-plot among many. Texas developing/finding some difference makers for next season is a priority (outside of fixing the Mackovic craptastic defense).
by EYESofBEVO on Dec 26, 2007 2:19 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Debate pulling the plug?
"If Chiles plays and doesn't show any improvement in the passing game it may be time to debate pulling the plug."
Why should we debate unplugging Chiles when the coaches have never plugged him in? He made nine attempts this year and didn't throw a single pass in the last 1/3 of the season. That's it. If he had failed while playing a meaningful role, I would be ready for the debate. But as things stand, the coaches could bench him for the entire '08 season and no one would know the difference.
Regardless of how he performs in 12/07, he should have the same opportunity to improve in the offseason as everyone else, and he should be assigned a position -- be it #1QB / #2QB / #3QB -- based on his merit in the summer/fall of 2008.
by mikey 4 on Dec 26, 2007 3:01 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
So what does he bring as a back-up then?
Why should we debate unplugging Chiles when the coaches have never plugged him in?
He WAS used. He was hit and miss as a runner and looked awful throwing the ball. Chiles had other attempts to pass while in, but was choosing to tuck and run (often without success). As a receiver he was maybe the best athlete out there aside from Sweed.
The thing unique about Chiles is that his play at QB is a very recent experiment. He only played QB in HS for one year and is still learning to throw a football. Kind of a rare situation for a big time D1 program to be gambling on their QB of the future with a guy they THINK can play the position, as opposed to other guys behind him who have a proven track record (from HS).
It isn't like they are wondering if he can play at this level and catch up to D1 speed. They are wondering if he can play QB at ANY level or at all.
He needs to start showing a basic grasp on passing skills.
But as things stand, the coaches could bench him for the entire '08 season and no one would know the difference.
He only has 4 years to play and I don't want to see him end up like Drew Kelson as a wasted ultra blue chip athlete.
Regardless of how he performs in 12/07, he should have the same opportunity to improve in the offseason as everyone else, and he should be assigned a position -- be it #1QB / #2QB / #3QB -- based on his merit in the summer/fall of 2008.
When did I say take away his opportunity? He will have every opportunity and then some. The only reason he is the current back-up is because of his potential, so he gets more than enough slack.
But if he doesn't even grasp basic passing skills a year 1/2 in to his college career then they should start bouncing around the idea of him switching.
by EYESofBEVO on Dec 26, 2007 3:26 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Responses
He WAS used. He was hit and miss as a runner and looked awful throwing the ball.
He was used rarely, and not at all in the last 1/4 of the season.
I thought he was electrifying running the ball. His ypc were comparable Charles's:
8.0 vs. 5.1 against Rice (Chiles has the better game: he put up 72 yards in 9 carries, while Charles put up 72 yards in 14 carries)
3.7 vs. 4.2 against KSU
4.0 vs. 4.6 against Oklahoma
6.0 vs. 6.3 against Iowa State
2.8 vs. 8.8 against Nebraska (Charles has the better game)
Keep in mind that he's a true freshman, while Charles is the Heisman-caliber upperclassman.
I agree that he needs to improve on passing.
The thing unique about Chiles is that his play at QB is a very recent experiment. He only played QB in HS for one year and is still learning to throw a football.
Chiles has ample QB experience. He had a stellar senior year as quarterback, putting up 38 TDs and 2562 yards. He's also been training as a QB at Texas and studying Texas's plays since last January. So his experience at QB doesn't bother me. I'm more concerned about his relative inexperience at WR. He has never played or practiced at WR in college. To my knowledge, he only started at WR for one season in high school, and that was in 2005. You're right to worry about experience, but you reach the wrong conclusion.
When did I say take away his opportunity?
What did you mean by "debate pulling the plug?" If you meant that he shouldn't play again this season, then the comment makes no sense, because the season is over. If you meant that the coaches should evaluate him in the offseason, then the comment is meaningless, because that means the coaches will evaluate him in the offseason either way. Thus, I took your comment to mean that we should debate not giving him another opportunity at QB, in which case I disagree with you.
by mikey 4 on Dec 27, 2007 11:23 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
My Predictions...
- Muck, Norton and Sergio will get more snaps than the "older" guys.
- The coaching staff finally devises an offensive scheme that does not require Colt to win the game himself. (ie. run Jamaal early and often, use John Chiles 10-12 snaps to keep defense honest)
- Orakpo will finally reek havoc on the QB now that he is actually healthy.
- The secondary will give up lots of yards, but only because ASU will be playing catch-up from the get-go.
by Misterserious7 on Dec 26, 2007 4:30 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Mandel's Pick
The Holiday Bowl has a history of high-scoring affairs, and this one should be no exception, as neither defense seems capable of shutting down the other's offense. ASU will likely try to keep the score down with a ball-control approach, but Texas' run defense is strong enough to limit its effectiveness. Some big plays from McCoy along with an anticipated huge night from Charles will ultimately do in the Sun Devils.
The pick: Texas 35, Arizona State 32
I'll agree with Stewie for a change. ASU's O-line sucks, so our rotating DE's will feast on Rudy Carpenter just often enough to let Colt, Jamaal and Jermichael outscore ASU. And I expect to see a trick play for Shipley, as well as a couple of interesting offensive wrinkles for Chiles.
by patienthornsfan on Dec 26, 2007 6:33 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
I think we win
If there is anything that is certain from the MB era it is that he rallys the troops extremely well after a loss. Even after the KSU debacle UT played their 2nd or best game of the year in a loss.
by IHN on Dec 26, 2007 9:34 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
we are in for a shootout.
- colt will throw 2 ints and yes they will come from the ball being tipped at the line of scrimmage, but will throw 3 tds shipley, cosby,and finley will be on the receiving end.
- our defense will have a hard time getting to the QB due to retarded blitz packages that dont fool anyone, but we will get 3 sacks. our secondary will have 2 ints , but still give up 400 yards of passing.
- j. charles will come up big for us late in the game and have a solid 160 yards and 2 tds. we will play from a 14 point deficit again, all year our team hasnt started out fast so why will this game be any different . and r. bailey will kick the game winning 43 yard FG with no time on the clock.
score ASU-41
Texas-45
GOD I LOVE TEXAS FOOTBALL
by kcc28 on Dec 27, 2007 9:18 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
Hmmm...
by Misterserious7 on Dec 27, 2007 10:10 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
i didn't go through all the scoring scenarios
just hit a few predictions
by kcc28 on Dec 27, 2007 2:20 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
a sneaking suspicion
It seems clear from reports that
(1) For the first time this season, the Horns will want it more than the other team
(2) Ulatoski starts at left tackle, as PB predicted.
(3) Texas will be a running team from the start and maybe the whole game out of a lot of 2 tight-end and H-back sets to help out Kyle Hix at right tackle.
(4) Charles gets 140 including one 35+ TD. McGee gets > 60, McCoy gets > 50. McCoy throws < 28 times. He gets one deep to Finley and one to Shipley, the rest of his passes move the chains.
(5) Offense keeps defense off the field for more than half the first half, so defense has just enough gas left in the end to
(6) let the offense win it with a field goal after
(7) the Sun Devils make halftime adjustments to slow the run and make a comeback to take the lead.
(8) Charles breaks a draw (or catches a screen pass) on 2nd and 10+ for +25 in the fourth quarter to set up the tying TD.
(9) Brandon Foster, in his last play as a Horn, recovers an onside kick (did you know he recovered 5 (I think) this year already) to help set up the winning field goal by Ryan "Money" Bailey.
(10) The Texas defense welcomes back to full strength Brian Orakpo, Eddie Jones, Sergio Kindle, and Lance Muckelroy (with these guys missing or banged up, is it any wonder the Horns had no pass rush against Okie State, Tech and A&M?) and the defense gets 5 sacks, including one to limit a drive to a field goal and another on a key fourth down in the second half.
(11) The Horns will have the fewest penalties of the year.
Call me wishful if you want, but see #1
Texas 34 ASU 31
by burnt in ny on Dec 27, 2007 10:09 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
Lance?
I thought it was Roderrick.
by Shake on Dec 27, 2007 11:56 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Re:
Lance is short for Roderrick. I thought everyone knew this.
by Misterserious7 on Dec 27, 2007 12:21 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
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