BCS Breakdown: 2007 Final Poll
by Horn Brain on Dec 3, 2007 1:09 AM CST
in Football
13 comments
Horn Brain checks in with his weekly look at the BCS.
I only wish the BCS was delivered with a press conference, where some poor shlub had to go out and face the world, read off the top 10 or 15 teams, and then answer questions based on info from the polls and from the computer operators. In my mind, it goes something like this:
BCS Joe: Ahem. The BCS is proud to announce that the participants in the BCS National Championship game this year are the Ohio State University Buckeyes, and the Louisiana State University Tigers...
The Assembled Press:
On to the madness... Well... I guess it doesn't actually count as madness after those creepy Chinese girls... soooo... um...
On to the voluntary wing of the asylum!
Outliers:
This week is just awesome. Awesome, I tell you! The poll is on its head this week. Total chaos. Anarchy, Armageddon, absolute smoke-billowing-from-the-wreckage cataclysm. The best part? This is the only week that counts! This is why I keep track of this stuff. Because when it all falls down into a big heap, no one else has these graphs:
Real madness, here, people.
In the second graph, the blue line shows actual standard deviation, the pink curve is the expected value. The expected value is the best fit line to the average over three full years now. That's a pretty solid number. This graph does not look anything like it. That means chaos. tOSU is in the championship, and PB gets his riot. In poll-ular form.
The outliers are tOSU, VT, Oklahoma, USC, WU, Texas, USF, Boise, and UConn. Bet against the spread, people. They will disappoint. Exception: Va Tech, whose early season hiccup (some might call it a violent seizure) against LSU has left them rightfully out of the title debate in human-world, but is now firmly entrenched as computer #1. That's right, the humans have them at 5 and 6, but the computers have pulled them to within spitting distance of the title game.
Dodged one there, BCS. Now we get to see LSU's chainsaw get back to work after a month in the shop for a carb-job. The Mississippi will run scarlet and gray in January. Don't believe me? Look at that graph again, and then remember the debacle that was the Lone Star Showdown. This stuff is for real, people. It's also obviously the year that a 2-loss team is the National Champion. Seriously, who didn't see this coming?
I bash Wisconsin:
Wisconsin doesn't really matter because I hate them and they suck. I defy you to give me one reason to like them. Please lose to Hokie-Joke State in your bowl game, you free-loading varmints. I hate you and I don't care if anyone I know is a badger.
Billingsley Report Card:
Well, surprise, surprise. Craziest of all college football seasons, and Billingsley finishes the craziest of all crazy years with his best performance yet. Madness:
Yes, that's right, people. Below 50% throwouts this week. He counted more than he didn't. I think that this is the biggest indictment of all, though, since it took the craziest poll I've ever seen to make him look good. Seriously. The craziest. His standard deviation is still off in "Big Ten is still a good conference" land, but that's mostly because he still thinks the Big Ten is still a good conference. He's also the only computer that still ranks Boise State. and he ranks them #16. Are you kidding me? He ranks them, but not Auburn, USF, or Texas. Fire him, BCS. Fire him.
Lesson of the Week:
Just when you think you've seen madness in its purest form, it gets a little madder. The lesson here is that there truly is no limit to how crazy a football season can get. The other lesson is that Ohio State is naturally more deserving of a shot at the national title than your team. This is because of the great tradition there. Go to title game, get embarrassed, fool everyone again next year. They are the OU of the North.
--HornBrain-
0 recs |
13 comments
Email
Print
Comments
In today's edition of "WTF BILLINGSLEY!":
- RB gives Mizzou a 16, while the minimum score for the other 5 computers was 20.
- RB gives USC a 23; 17 was the next highest score from any of the other 5.
- RB gives Clemson a 3, while 4 comps had them at 11 or 12.
- RB gives Wisconsin a 11, while the next highest was a 5, and two comps gave them a 0.
- RB gives South Florida a 0, while ALL the other computers gave them at least double digits!
- And last but not the least ridiculous, RB gives Boise State a 10, while ALL 5 other computers gave them a zero.
That concludes the final episode of "WTF BILLINGSLEY!" See you next fall!
by goingforthecorner on Dec 3, 2007 5:00 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
Good stuff, gftc
I did some of this early on, but it took up too much room on the post. Still needs to be said, though. Hope to see more of this next year.
by Horn Brain on Dec 3, 2007 2:05 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Gimme
A break Brian. This year is probably the best example of the statement "GAMES ARE NOT PLAYED ON PAPER." App State Michigan? Stanford USC? Illinois Ohio State? Maybe have a little backup for your statements other than your personal feelings. In addition, what makes LSU so deserving of going to the MNC? LSU had two chances at being number one and staying number one and blew it. Not to one unranked team, but two.
"Go to title game, get embarrassed, fool everyone again next year." Go to title game in 2002, win national championship, go to fiesta bowl, win, go to fiesta bowl two years later, win, go to national championship again, lose, lose heisman winner, leading recievers, make it to the national championship again? Your arguement holds as much weight as my shit does after i eat a spicy burrito. Try losing your core players and trying to make it back to the national championship. wait, wait, it only took one player leaving to make it clear Texas wouldn't even finish in the top ten the next year.
The OU of the north? i could say i agree with that statement a little bit, in terms of, we consistently make BCS bowls. But unlike OU, our coach not only coaches, but builds the character of young men and molds them into good citizens. Ohio State consistently beats it's rival, unlike OU and has only lost one bcs game, compared to OU's 3. The two burnt orange glory years are gone. Your main rival is in a bcs game, while your are in a bowl game no one outside The two teams playing in could give a shit about. hey.....sounds familiar to me. Michigan of the south.
by 303Dub on Dec 3, 2007 8:09 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Deflection
What does Texas have to do with any of this? We're irrelevant and we know it. Bringing us into isn't a substantive response to claims about Ohio State.
Basically, the Buckeyes need to win this game. There's no questioning Jim Tressel's excellence as a coach, but if fans don't want to be bombarded with 'worthiness' claims, they need to win this year. Period.
Saying that Texas is slumping is irrelevant. We're well aware. The question is whether Ohio State is worthy of a top two ranking.
by Peter Bean on Dec 3, 2007 8:26 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I dont
See what "worthiness" has to do with it though. Because if you take a look at the Buckeye roster, what is to stop them from being a championship caliber team next year? i dont think anyone expected them to be where they are at, at the start of the season.
by 303Dub on Dec 3, 2007 9:44 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Will agree
That Ohio State may field an even better team next season, but my point is this: if OSU loses this year, it'll be a while before voters give them the nod again in situations where there are other teams that have a roughly equal claim on the title game berth.
by Peter Bean on Dec 4, 2007 8:18 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
It's Brain...
Woah, there. Did I hit a little nerve with my assertions? Like PB said, we know we're irrelevant, and I think that almost anyone here would agree with you that we are the Michigan of the South. Better overall program that's currently paying a stubborn mule to run its program with tons of class, schedule zombie meat OOC, and struggle to motivate the team to win rivalry games and other important games, all the while tooting his own horn about winning most of the games and clutching the crystal football like Linus with his blanket.
Now that you've gotten me to "admit" something that I gladly say openly all the time here, why don't you go burn down all the couches in town and swing your jorts triumphantly over your head? Should give you some fond memories of 2006, just like LSU will give you some not-so-fond ones come January.
You barely deserve "OU of the North" this year. You're more like "Kansas of the smoking couch". Lost to the only above-average team you played (you'll figure out the spread-option eventually, I hope). You brag about how no one deserves to face you in the NC game, but LSU has lost better games than tOSU has played all year. Great job picking up that big win over um... Wisc... Penn... Michi... Oh, that's right, Akron. Handled them nicely. Signature win for Tressel. You're lucky that one-loss in the Big Ten is still looked at as respectable, because you don't even deserve to sniff the title game. IMO, this is the worst thing that could have happened to you. Now, barring some miracle, you get embarrassed by becoming the first team in history to give the NC to a 2-loss team. Like OU, you'll have trouble getting enough preseason hype to vault you into the title game like this for the next five years. Enjoy humiliating the entire Big Ten.
by Horn Brain on Dec 3, 2007 9:42 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Damn Brain
You tell him. Woo!! At least OU twice defeated a team, in one instance in a blowout, which beat Illinois which took it to the Buckeys in Columbus.
by duras on Dec 4, 2007 11:04 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Michigan of the South
Easy Brain. My Wolvarine wife has been throwing this (as well as any number of kitchen utensils) at me since the aTm game but I just don't buy. We've got plenty of speed and talent and we're at least two years away from Ann Arbor purgatory.
Also our MNC is more recent, not split, not disputed and cooler than theirs. A LOT cooler.
by duras on Dec 4, 2007 12:01 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I would have to disagree
I think that winning the NC gave these coaches all they wanted, and they're content. A chance to win the conference (and this year, go to the national title game) simply wasn't worth telling Killibrew, Bobino, and Derry that they're not the best LB's on the team. Winning revenge games against KSU and A&M for your fans was simply not important enough to fire up the team. Winning the game whichever way you can simply isn't worth having your QB stay in the pocket and "play football right" against A&M.
Now that Mack has accomplished his competitive goals, he's content to just raise a group of football players as his children. Everyone gets to play, and if you're young, you just have to wait your turn. What big recruit wants to come here? This is embarrassing.
by Horn Brain on Dec 4, 2007 12:17 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I was being sarcastic...
...and find it difficult to disagree with anything you say. (Well, our MNC WAS cooler than theirs but that doesn't impact the validity of your assessment of the mindset of the coaching staff).
I grasp at straws, however a drowning Horn has little choice. MAYBE, the success of the Basketball team will spur the Mack to rethink his apporach somewhat. Obviously we would need at least a Final 4 appearance to make this happen but while there are no guarantees this does not look unrealistic. We have a young team thats likely to improve. While this would be fantastic on its own merits it could also, perhaps, get Mack's competative juices flowing a tad.
On a DRAMATICALLY more negative note, we have the Bowl season. On the one hand I'm looking for a rout of ASU and would like to see WFV run all over OU. However, perhaps these results would only entrench the dreaded complacency and mediocraty. The inverse, hideous in itself, might induce some changes. On balance, though, I'll go with option A. Let's take what we can get, maybe we'll even stubmle into a Big XII title here and there.
Michigan does, indeed, provided a discouraging example. A horrible season in 2005, a bad ending to 2006, a humiliating start and a bad conclusion to 2007 and the Ancien Regime (President, AD, old coach) is essentially trying to perpetuate itself. I fear this might be the case in Austin as well.
by duras on Dec 4, 2007 1:15 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Also
I just want to make the point that Ohio State should have to play in a conference championship game. All BCS conferences should be required to have a championship game. Look at what would have happened if the other conferences hadn't played a CC. It's the only fair thing to do until they scrap the shit pile that is the BCS and go to a playoff system.
by Texas Our Texas on Dec 4, 2007 9:23 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
buckeyes...
But unlike OU, our coach not only coaches, but builds the character of young men and molds them into good citizens.
All right, Mr. Clarett, out of your cell, you've got a visitor!!!
The only difference between Stoop's QB and Tressel's is the amount of illegal money they got. Oh, and also, the seriousness of their "penalty"...
Maybe tOsu will get lucky again and their far superior opponent will turn the ball over a dozen times or so and they'll be able to keep it close enough for a ref to decide the game. That's kind of your basis for BCS success, isn't it? Well, to be fair you really beat... Notre Dame. Oh... never mind, the only team more obviously and consistently overrated than you guys...
by agent orange on Dec 5, 2007 10:03 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Certain photos copyright © 2009 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
