First Look: Arizona State Offense vs Texas Defense
by Peter Bean on Dec 6, 2007 10:56 AM CST
in Football
30 comments
For the first time in their careers, long-time friends Dennis Erickson and Mack Brown will face one another on the field. Erickson has helped revive Arizona State with a 10-2 season with losses only to USC and Oregon.
Longhorn fans are appropriately anxious about the matchup after the loss in College Station, so let's take a first look at the ASU offense and Texas defense. First, the numbers:
I suppose Texas fans could have hoped to draw a more run-oriented opponent for their bowl game, but let's face it: Stephen McGee threw for 700 yards against this Texas defense. Whomever the Longhorns drew for this bowl game, the game plan wasn't going to differ - throw, throw, throw.
The bad news for Texas is that passing offense has been the Sun Devils' strength this year. Rudy Carpenter had a great season for ASU and if Duane Akina has any hope of ending the season on a high note, he's going to have to figure out a way to keep the passing game in check. Junior wideout Michael Jones is the receiver Texas will need to try to keep a handle on - the 6-4 two-sport athlete (baseball) averages a healthy 17.5 yards per catch, finding the end zone 8 times this season. Arizona State provides balance, however, as five different receivers caught at least 20 passes this season. There's just no way around it: Texas either fixes the pass defense for the bowl game, or we're in for a wild shootout.
--PB--
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Numbers go up...
...On both sides. I would imagine every number on this chart is bigger after the game, with the possible exception of turnovers and ASU's national rankings in most offensive categories. Please make me sound stupid, Duane. Please, please, please make me sound stupid.
by Horn Brain on Dec 6, 2007 11:03 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
maybe if we play our dbs 10 yards off the line
they'll just keep throwing over the middle
and we'll know what they're doing
and our secondary will never be fooled and made to look stupid
by abcdmetrius on Dec 6, 2007 11:20 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
I know one Defensive unit that'll be on Holiday
I appreciate the breakdown, but I think in our case, you can simply take ASU's PPG average, plus it up 5 or 10%, add 1 and tell the UT's offense that's what they'll have to score to win...you might also tell them putting a few points on the board in the first 3 quarters would help.
Hate to be this cynical, but no doubt Rudy and Co. are looking at the game tapes and saying to themselves, "if we can just complete a 3-yard pass into the flat, we can take it to the house 67% of the time."
The Co-Op just sent me an email selling Holiday Bowl T-Shirts. My favorites:
Texas D - We're Small, But We're Slow
Akina's Blitzes Are So Disguised, We Don't Even Recognize Them
Playing Two-Below Since 1897
Tackling - You Could Learn A Lot From A Dummy
All I Want For Christmas Is A 3 & Out
by 54b on Dec 6, 2007 1:21 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Why the gloom?
Did we surrender when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor? On which point I refer you to the more elaborate version from the inimitable Holly and Joan:
JAMAAL CHARLES: War's over, man. Oklahoma State dropped the big one.
COLT MCCOY: What? Over? Did you say "over"? Nothing is over until we decide it is! Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor? Hell no!
JAMAAL CHARLES: Germans?
MACK BROWN: Forget it, he's rolling.
COLT MCCOY: And it ain't over now. 'Cause when the going gets tough . . . the tough get going. Who's with me? Let's Go! Come on! AAAAEEEEEGGGHHHH!! What the fuck happened to the Texas I used to know? Where's the spirit? Where's the guts, huh? "Ooh, we're afraid to go with you Colt, we might get in trouble." Well just kiss my ass from now on! Not me! I'm not gonna take this. Robinson, he's a dead man! Bowman, dead! Niedermeyer...
JAMAAL CHARLES: Dead! Colt's right. Psychotic, but absolutely right. We gotta take these bastards. Now we could do it with conventional weapons. But that could take years and cost millions of lives. No, I think we have to go all out. I think that this situation absolutely requires a really futile and stupid gesture be done on somebody's part.
COLT MCCOY: LET'S DO IT!
Read the rest:
http://www.snarkastic.com/archives/0...
by duras on Dec 6, 2007 1:59 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Sorry...
...for the euphemism.
by duras on Dec 6, 2007 2:20 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
It should probably read
"Inimitable, THANK GOD." I don't think the world is ready for four of us.
(Seriously, you're too kind.)
by Holly Anderson on Dec 6, 2007 2:25 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Hollytwins?
I could live with that.
by Peter Bean on Dec 6, 2007 2:31 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Not really.
The polls and Laff Riots are endlessly entertaining, inter alia.
by duras on Dec 6, 2007 2:50 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
thanks for the link
Holly, Joan, et al.,
GREAT.NESS.
When I grow up, I wanna be able to write like you do. :-)
by Beergut on Dec 7, 2007 6:18 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
A "wild shootout"
presumes that we will be able to score on their defense. If T+1 was any indication, we can't.
by BrooklynHorn on Dec 6, 2007 3:04 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Another Holiday Bowl
Another blowout loss to a middling PAC 10 team. Great.
GIVE US THE ORGERON!!1
by littlerearl on Dec 6, 2007 5:52 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
what?
We've been to three holiday bowls since Mack became head coach. We lost to #15 Washington State in 2003 by 8 points. We beat #21 Washington in 2001, and we lost to #8 Oregon in 2000 by 5 points (and we would have won if both Roy Williams and BJ Johnson hadn't dropped TD passes in the last 5 minutes). Now we're playing #11 Arizona State.
Let me count the things wrong with what you said:
- "Another Holiday Bowl" - first one since 2003.
- "Another blowout loss" - we haven't lost by more than a touchdown to any Pac-10 team since UCLA in 1998.
- "...to a middling PAC-10 team" - Oregon and Washington State were not middling. They were good. Washington was middling, and we beat them. The Holiday Bowl gets the #2 team out of the Pac10, which is generally a good team. Arizona State is a good team.
- "ORGERON!!1" - I don't even think you did the "1" at the end to be funny. You're that guy.
by billyzane on Dec 7, 2007 10:20 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
It just somehow seems meaningless...
The "real" Longhorns show up in San Diego. An exciting come-from-behind victory leaves everyone excited about next year. Then, nothing changes in the off-season and we go 10-2 or so again. Repeat.
We will not get angry/hungry enough in a decade or two to win another NC. A VY comes along maybe once in a generation.
Holiday Bowl depression settles in...
by bfaut86 on Dec 6, 2007 11:28 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
a couple of thoughts
One way to improve the D a bunch is to play Drew Kelson a whole bunch (assuming that Drew is healthy by then). Drew can tackle like an LB and will help a bunch on pass D just by adding the extra DB (i.e. UT would be playing a nickel package). UT should assume that ASU is going to pass, pass some more, and then keep on passing. forget stopping the run first Mack, force them to run by employing nickel and dime packages liberally and going with only one DT and 2 DEs. Stunt a bunch up front.
On offense, Mack and staff can not possibly miss how USC just destroyed ASU a couple of weeks ago with short passes to running backs deployed as wide receivers. The UCS running back receivers got tons of yards after catch. Easy money. If UT does the same thing with Jamaal Charles deployed as a wide receiver, ASU will be in trouble on D. USC would typically do play action to one side and then throw to the opposite side. It worked over and over and over.
by Kafka on Dec 6, 2007 11:42 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
re: USC
Defensively, that game was an aberration for ASU. Our open field tackling was absolutely abyssmal, harkening back to the teams we saw under Dirk Koetter. Other than the dangerous Jamaal Charles, I don't know that Texas has the playmakers that USC (or Oregon with a healthy Dennis Dixon for that matter) does.
From reading BON this season, it seems like it will entirely depend on whether Greg Davis is bright enough to run some zone read schemes that will free up Charles and force ASU to account for more of the field. If you run a straight I formation, 3-wide offense, I like our chances of hanging with the Horns.
by Beatuofa on Dec 7, 2007 12:14 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
ASU game
USC put running backs out wide to receive those short passes. ASU simply did not have the talent to match up. There was not much ASU could do about it. If UT throws to Jamaal Charles out wide (a big if), ASU will also have trouble. Jamaal is pretty awesome in the open field. finley is also an outstanding playmaker at tight end. McGee is a pretty good running back. UT also has a bunch of very reliable possession receivers who catch the ball quite well. Colt scrambles quite well and also runs pretty well. His big problem is turnovers.
It is almost certain that UT will run some zone read (that is actually one of GD's favorite plays, colt is the one who did not like to run it last year when he was skinnier). UT runs the spread and rarely runs the I.
The big problem for UT on offense is turning the ball over (primarily by Colt McCoy). If UT does not turn the ball over (a big if), they will probably do fine on offense.
Overall, UT's big problem is pass defense. ASU would have to be insane not to pass a bunch.
by Kafka on Dec 7, 2007 3:36 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
A few corrections/clarifications...
Just wanted to clear up a few things on ASU's offense.
Despite the statistical breakdown, ASU really does look to run the ball first. Our running game suffered with the loss of Ryan Torain to a foot injury 5 games into the season. Jr. Keegan Herring and So. Dmitri Nance (originally from Euless Trinity, and the only Texas HS back besides Cedric Benson to run for 3,000 yards in a season) have picked up the slack, and each of them have their strengths -- Herring is the shifty breakaway threat, Nance is the between the tackles guy with good vision -- but neither is the complete package that Torain was, and the running game has been much more inconsistent as a result.
In addition to this, the OL has been ravaged by injuries and inconsistent play as well. C Mike Pollak is an all-conference performer, but the rest of the line has been described as being "all guards." The biggest issue with this has been abysmal pass protection, as only 2 teams allowed more sacks than the Sun Devils this year, and Rudy Carpenter has taken an absolute pounding all season long. Most teams have blitzed the hell out of ASU and dared us to beat them down the field, and the results have been mostly successful for opposing defenses.
We have done a good job of spreading the ball around (as evidenced by the 5 recievers with 20+ catches stat Peter referenced) but it sure makes things interesting. Michael Jones leads the team in total catches, but the steadiest receiver on the team is So. Chris McGaha, who has emerged as a reliable 3rd down conversion machine with the best hands on the team. Sr. Rudy Burgess is steady and versatile, and So. Kyle Williams is the best downfield threat.
Basically, the best way to tell if the ASU offense is clicking is if they are managing the running game, and limiting sacks. If the team is getting 120+ yards on the ground, and keeping the sacks at or below 4, then you guys may have your hands full. If we've got 24 carries for 74 yards and 6 sacks heading into the 4th quarter, look for UT to be up big. Hope this helps you guys, and I'll look forward to reading more on the Horns leading up to the game.
by Beatuofa on Dec 6, 2007 11:53 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Oh God...
If the team is getting 120+ yards on the ground, and keeping the sacks at or below 4, then you guys may have your hands full.
Hands full? I literally dream of that kind of defensive performance. I think you misunderestimate our badness.
by Horn Brain on Dec 7, 2007 12:25 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Dream away...
Well from the defensive stats presented above, it looks like you guys are fairly stout against the run. My worst nightmare is that we're unable to get a ground game established, are stuck in obvious passing situations, and Rudy Carpenter drowns in a steady rain of 3rd-and-9 blitzes.
We're already over the fact that our OL sucks, we just don't want the OC and QB making things even worse. The fact that we've managed to have a very productive and efficient passing game despite these weaknesses is a testament to Carpenter's talent and toughness, and some inspired play on the part of our underrated WRs. The biggest complaints that most ASU fans have had about the offense this year are that 1) OC Rich Olsen calls too many long developing pass routes which expose Rudy to blitzes that he can't escape, and 2) Rudy doesn't get rid of the ball quickly enough even when he does have time, and takes a sack rather than trying to run for a few yards or just throw the ball away.
I haven't seen very much of UT in person this year and mostly followed the ups and downs of the team through this blog, but I've just got this enduring mental image of hulking, angry Texas farmboys trampling everything in their path on defense. Not the case this year evidently?
by Beatuofa on Dec 7, 2007 1:37 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Wrong visual image
Imagine a slow tractor plowing blindly into a heap of rubbish and you've just witnessed our linebacker play.
by Peter Bean on Dec 7, 2007 1:49 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
No...
I've just got this enduring mental image of hulking, angry Texas farmboys trampling everything in their path on defense. Not the case this year evidently?
That's the Aggie defense, and it only shows up for one game a year.
On defense, we're more like an all-male tribe of genetically superior super humans, created and then left to live out their lives on an isolated island alone. With no natural enemies, we evolved over time into a peaceful race, surviving simply by harvesting the wild fruit and vegetables, and leaving no trace of our violent purpose to be found, save our iron physiques. Then suddenly, our creators are drawn into a war against a more powerful race, and are forced to call upon their super soldier reserves. Thinking that they can rely on our superior physical strength, they throw us blindly into battle without training, our lines break within moments, and all is lost. The enemy converts some of us to their cause, and after strenuous training, they unleash the full potential of the power of our race upon those who have created us, bringing a swift end to the war. As our creators are shackled and shipped off to remote mining camps, they can only wonder why the talent performs so much better for our enemies.
Long story short: Your team will vastly outperform your expectations against us.
by Horn Brain on Dec 7, 2007 3:04 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
there is a reason for that
That's the Aggie defense, and it only shows up for one game a year.
That's the only game of the year our offensive and defensive linemen say, "F*ck it,I'm sick of this shit, we're just gonna kill everything that moves on that field. No one leaves until we beat the hell out of them."
And it works, for one game a year.
by Beergut on Dec 7, 2007 6:22 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Or...
...they practice all year for it... whatever.
No, seriously, I just think they are pumped up. They certainly don't blow their assignments, or else we would run all over you. Doesn't matter if Texas gets pumped up or not, because our schemes are bullcrap.
by Horn Brain on Dec 7, 2007 8:39 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
BeatUofA beat me to it
He'd know better than I would about whether the game against USC was indicative of what ASU can do on defense, but blitz the shit out of Carpenter and Texas is in with a shot.
by DC Trojan on Dec 7, 2007 2:16 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
yikes!!!
sorry, just had a nightmare vision of Bobino hurtling headlong into the nearest blocker and literally disappearing...
followed by another nightmare vision of Killebrew smacking the absolute hell out of the quarterback only two or three steps too late and then looking astounded as the flag flutters to earth...
So here's me at the end of this season:
[optimistic voice]Oh man, I hope we see tons and tons of Norton, Kindle and Muck flying in and blowing things up.[/optimistic voice]
followed by:
[reality check voice] Yeah, a bowl game in a senior's year is just the forum for Mack to decide there's been enough reward for years of service and devotion and subpar play.[/reality check voice]
by agent orange on Dec 7, 2007 11:35 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Re:
I picked up the Chronicle and saw the early line was TEXAS by 1 1/2. WTF?
by jc25 on Dec 7, 2007 9:36 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
Pac 10
I happen to live in Pac-10 country and have watched ASU several times this year. They will give the Horns fits no doubt. They are a fast, fast, fast team. Our defense will be tested early and often. The question will be if we can hold them in the red zone. If we can hold them to field goals we have a really good chance. The one thing I've noticed about ASU this year is that when they get behind or are losing ground they get discouraged and start infighting and pointing fingers. We should exploit that. It would be great to see the Horns build up an early lead but we really haven't seen that against a formidable foe this year so I'm not going to hold my breath on that one.
by horns65 on Dec 7, 2007 5:00 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Which team were you watching?
Ummm wow, I've gotta wonder if you're actually thinking of our neighbors to the south in tucson, or maybe past seasons under Dirk Koetter. ASU is a notoriously slow starting team, trailing early against, well...pretty much everyone except Sam Jose State, San Diego State, and Stanford. The only games they weren't able to come back and take care of business were against Oregon and SC. They've actually been notable for their ability to keep their composure this year when falling behind and then come roaring back. The team has been outscored by something like a 3:1 ratio in the first quarter, but then outscores their opponents in every other quarter.
I would actually be shocked if UT doesn't find themselves with a 7-0, 13-3 type lead at some point early in the game. Along with the OL doing their best turnstile impressions, it's something ASU fans have just come to accept about this year's team.
by Beatuofa on Dec 8, 2007 12:08 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
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