The Three Point Line Moves
by Peter Bean on May 11, 2007 11:56 AM CDT
in Texas Longhorns Basketball
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PrintNo morning coffee today, as there's simply nothing to report. Sad, I know.
Briefly, then, a note on the recent recommendation from the NCAA Rules Committee that the three point line be moved back a foot to 20 feet, 9 inches. This was brought up in the diaries, but I haven't had a chance to chime in on the topic yet.
The move itself is, in my view, a welcome one. For far too long, the college game has been disproportionately affected by the three point shot. With the line as it's currently marked, collegiate basketball teams can hardly justify any jump shot that's not a three-pointer. As close in as it is, with a full extra point attached to a successful shot, a team's field goal attempts should include a healthy number of three point attempts.
Long dubbed "the great equalizer" in college basketball, the three point shot has given inferior teams a shooter's chance at competing with anyone, should they be particularly warm from the outside.
That may all change with the new line. By adding a full foot to the three point distance, a decrease in three point field goal percentage across the board should be expected. One foot may not seem like much to add, but in a game of inches, such a change will undoubtedly have a noticable affect. In the grand scheme of things, this is probably bad news for athletically inferior teams who've heretofore had a deadly weapon to counter-balance their deficiencies in other areas. More often than not, when a smaller, less-athletic team upsets a "big school" powerhouse, they've done so with a healthy number of three pointers.
Similarly, the move's affect on teams like Michigan, now coached by former West Virginia coach and three point advocate extraordinaire John Beilein, will be interesting to observe. Credit to Brian at MGoBlog, who has stuck by his "move it back" guns despite the potential setback for UM. Predictably, Beilein's saying he doesn't expect the rule to affect his team's offense, though that's fanciful wishcasting. It's doubtful Beilein doesn't know as much, and he'll almost certainly make some adjustments to the way his team operates offensively.
That brings us, then, to Texas, which just lost the one guy who may have been immune to this particular rule change. While Durant will be shooting three pointers from three feet deeper than the proposed college line, the rest of the Texas squad will adjust to the new collegiate mark.
The most obvious question is how this will affect AJ Abrams, a player who attempted 64.4% of his shots from beyond the arc. Abrams made 120 of his 284 three pointers (42.3%), and derives almost all of his value from his ability to contribute to the team in that manner. If it's reasonable to expect that percentage to dip a bit, Abrams will lose some of his offensive value, at which point he'll really need to improve his defense if he's to justify the number of minutes Rick Barnes keeps him on the floor.
Aside from Abrams, the rest of the Longhorns weren't excessively dependent on the three point shot, so the rule should have a negligible effect on their offensive value. If anything, the rule should help a team like Texas, which has traditionally run an offense featuring shots near the rim. There's some upside here, too. Abrams is a pretty freaky three point shooter; if he's able to keep his percentage at or above 40% next year, Texas won't have to try to replace that portion of its offense.
It's replacing that Durant guy's offense that will be the bigger concern.
--PB--
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Augustin loved the top of the key 3. It'll be interesting to see if he can move that shot back a foot as well.
Thought about that
but it seemed that he was shooting most of those from at least a foot off the line anyway.
Depends on AJ's arm strength
If his arm strength is enough to continue his +40 % as you said, then the change might help him, stretching out zones and allowing a shorter player to get more looks.
If he has to start forcing the ball there, then his percentages will drop and his value on the court will be greatly decreased.
The 3 is a concern for AJ
with the new rules, but I'd much rather he develop a reliable mid-range shot and some passing skills.
AJ can shoot 3's until his arms fall off, but he needs to broaden his skill set.
It's hard not to jump off a cliff right now.
I want to believe something is foul here. I desperately want to believe that someone is trying to take Big Rick down. One of my idols, my favorite athlete of all time, one of the most incredible people I have ever met, and one of the most brilliant minds to ever step on the 40 acres looks like a complete idiot right now. It is killing me.
Though I think the positive test for banned supplements was the straw that broke me, nothing can be worse than this. I had the highest hopes for my boy this year. He is in the best shape of his life, mind and body. And I could see and hear his passion for the game again. Going into this season, Ricky returning to the league had me more excited than VY year two. All of that is good a bruised now. Will he even be reinstated in September and if so, will anyone take a chance on him? I've heard that the Rams have interest, but that was before this stumble.
I am almost at the point (or maybe I'm there) that I would love to see Rick just retreat to Toronto/Calgary and live the life that he so desperately wants. He may not be meant for this business, or this society for that matter and he deserves better. I just want to see the man happy.
"Because I really like Toronto, I really like this organization ... you can live here, you know? You feel like you have a life. I come to work, I go home, play with my kid, walk to the store. It's really nice. I get to teach. It's wonderful here."
It's a shame that you can commit suspected murder, beat your spouse and teammates, spit on and generally emotionally destroy strippers and working girls, rape, abuse, rob, shoot, burn and even torture and abuse 50+ beautiful dogs and you can and will eventually make a comeback, even be the most high profile linebacker in the league. But, insert THC into that bloodstream and you're just as good as a Satanist/Commie/Pinko/Red/Atheist/Babykiller.
That's a rant, but I really am at a loss for words.
I just hope this man can find peace before he runs out of time. Free Ricky, free thinker.
I like the rule
I'm usually opposed to anything that diminishes the strategic intrigue of a given sport, and the college three-point line certainly did that.
I hated watching teams like West Virginia [and seemingly every team in the country for the one day they played UT] thrive on the fact that if they put up a million 3's and make any considerable percentage of them, they are likely to win.
We will be a better team next year
Hey PB, any new news on that Bogus Balbay kid?
I just wanted to say that all the Barnes critics failed to realize that he's a defensive-minded coach. Can you imagine how difficult it must've of been for Barnes, a defensive coach to be forced to become offensive-minded, knowing that his team was one of the worst defensive teams of all-time [/bill walton]?
I point this out because Gary Johnson (and hopefully Pittman's presence in the paint) is going to allow Barnes to go back to the style he's comfortable with, and that's slowing it down and playing some serious D. We'll need to do that anyway if Pittman is playing consistently. Johnson gives us an interior defense and rebounding presence, something we pretty much did not have at all last year.
And as far as the three point line being spread back, I don't know if I'm going to like this as a basketball fan. Unless the NCAA decides to ban zone defenses, the game will only get uglier. Look for Barnes to take advantage of this and use the 2-3 zone a lot more. When we do go zone, it's good to know that unlike last year, we could possibly have three solid rebounders on the court at the same time in Pittman, Johnson, and James.
by goingforthecorner on May 13, 2007 2:13 AM CDT reply actions
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