MNC prediction
by DogTown on May 8, 2007 10:00 AM CDT
28 comments
Last year I went out on a limb (not really) and predicted (drunkenly) that Ohio State would play a one loss SEC team for the MNC. My point isn't that I'm the all seeing prognosticator of football (which I am), only that PB's countdown is still in the triple digits and I need a fix.
Who do you think will play for the MNC game next Jan? I think it will be an undefeated USC and an undefeated Texas, in a death defying rematch of 2005.
Some issues to consider.
Can any SEC team emerge undefeated from the conference? I dont see it happening
Would an undefeated Big East team get passed over by a one loss team fom the SEC, Big12, Big10? My feeling is that the Big East is the easiest conference to get through, but would get bullied in the press by the bigger conferences.
Million dollar question:
Could a one loss SEC team get voted in over an undefeated team from the B10, B12, P12? I think this is what the season will come down to. Florida showed the SEC toughness last year, but I just cant envision a one loss team getting voted in over a big name team from the power conferences. If it was an undefeated Iowa (who dodges OSU AND Mich) Ok State or Cal, then the odds increase greatly. If undefeated Texas, ou, or USC, then not so much.
Note that I dont think any of this is necessarily fair, only that I think it is how the system works and trying to predict accordingly.
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Million dollar answer
I don't think a one loss SEC team gets ahead of an undefeated team, unless, possibly, maybe they are from the Big East. But even then...
It isn't like the BIG 12, 10, Pac 10, etc aren't proven conferences without recent MNCs. There would be enough regional voters to say, "no way".
Anywhoo...IMO Mich or possibly an ACC team has a better chance of going undefeated than USC this season. USC's schedule has too many mine fields and Booty just isn't the caliber of QB they've had the past few years. He makes too many mistakes and has a limited range of skills/passes.
If I had to pick right now, I'd go Mich and the winner of the BIG 12.
by EYESofBEVO on May 8, 2007 10:59 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Undefeated
I do not think that an undefeated Big East/ACC team gets jumped by anyone at the end of the season.
If WVU, Rutgers, Louisville, or other teams like them (without the history of legitimacy) are ranked above a team pre-season, they will have to lose to get passed.
Example (Completely hypothetical): USC (Pre-season ranked 1)goes undefeated, WVU (Pre-season ranked 3) goes undefeated, Auburn (Pre-season ranked 6) goes undefeated. USC vs WVU for the Championship. I could be wrong b/c of the computers, but that is just what I think.
And that sucks b/c that league will be weak except for the top 2. I think the winner of WVU/Louisville has a great shot at the National Championship.
My prediction: I agree TX vs. USC only I think USC will have 1 loss.
If I can't pick the longhorns I would say USC vs (winner of WVU/Louisville)
by SwimTexas on May 8, 2007 11:05 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I don't think so
Auburn goes unless SEC has a down year. While a 1 loss Auburn probably does not jump WVU, an undefeated team from the SEC will get the respect from the press and the computers that will push them ahead.
by Wells on May 8, 2007 11:13 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
They SHOULD Go
But I don't think that they would jump a team if they were rated higher all season. I think that the teams keep winning, and nothing changes. Maybe that is just the "Frustrated with the system" guy in me talking.
Having said that, if I were a voter, there would have to be pretty strange circumstances for me not to rank an undefeated SEC team above an ACC/Big East team.
But I can see the possibility of WVU or Louisville waltzing their way thru that Conference undefeated and having an eye on the Championship game late in the season.
by SwimTexas on May 8, 2007 12:57 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I guess it depends on how the season plays out
If the Big East team (I took ACC out because if a VaTech/Miami/Fla St would not get jumped) had a close game to a bad team, they would get dropped below the SEC undefeated. If the blow out every team they play, then it could happen. It would also depend on who they play when. If their marque game is early or if they have a bad non-conference schedule, then the chance of them staying higher than an undefeated SEC team is less.
I guess it is not an absolute either way, but I do think an SEC team has a better chance, even if they are ranked lower at the beginning of the year.
by Wells on May 8, 2007 1:26 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Does anyone else think
That if we end up playing in the MNC against USC that we will get shellacked?
by whoopspat on May 8, 2007 11:41 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not really, no
Texas has an experienced high scoring offense. It would probably be another shoot-out.
USC's offense is being retooled. They are very talented, but the skill positions are still up for grabs(QB aside). That leaves them open to mistakes, which Booty is already prone to. Losing the Coordinator and making that adjustment is another setback. They still have the feel of an offense searching for an identity and settling in. Even a really good team like USC will have hurdles.
We'll know how good they are after that first bout with NU in Lincoln. They have Oregon, Cal and Zona State on the road.
by EYESofBEVO on May 8, 2007 12:05 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
You're really underrating USC in my opinion
Their defense is probably the best in the country, maybe even by a good margin. I doubt they'll get into any shootouts.
I'm not sure what you have against Booty, either. His numbers last year (29tds to 9ints, 144 rating) were quite good, and he's got a better arm than Leinert.
by Old Tex29 on May 8, 2007 12:11 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
"Really Underestimating them"?
to say that they wouldn't blowout Texas in the MNC game? First of all, if you are excepting the fact that a team has a chance to Make It to the MNC game, then you Can't be underestimating them too much.
Second, I can see the argument that Tx doesn't get Blown out. I think they would be the underdog, but a blowout?
And weapons like UT has Should be able to score against even the BEST Defense in the country. It might not be a shootout, but it had better be Far from a Shutout.
by SwimTexas on May 8, 2007 1:02 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
The USC defense was only a marginal improvement
over Texas. Calling them the "best" next year seems a little lofty.
OU's defense was actually much better than USC's -- and Texas managed to put up points.
No disrespect to the Trojans, but they have the same chances to win it all as the other top 15 teams. There was nothing unique about USC that makes me think they are vastly superior to everyone else.
by EYESofBEVO on May 8, 2007 1:45 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
best d
next season the best D will be where it was last year - Virginia Tech. They return 8 starters from last year's top-ranked squad, which allowed only 219 total yards/game.
by BigTexBD on May 8, 2007 1:59 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not a big Va Tech fan
but if I had to pick a team that could make a run in the ACC it would be them.
They just need a QB who doesn't give the game away.
by EYESofBEVO on May 8, 2007 2:18 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm not a USC fan
so I really have very little desire to continue this conversation. But, I don't want to seem like a hit-and-run artist so I'll address a few points.
First of all, your argument is a little disingenuous.
"OU's defense was actually much better than USC's -- and Texas managed to put up points."
By what metric? USC's defense was better than OU's in the only category that matters: scoring defense. Yards don't matter in the grand scheme of things, points matter. You pull a bit of a bait and switch when you write that "OU's defense was much better than USC's" (referring to total defense) and then switch the subject to points: "and Texas managed to put up points"(referring to scoring defense). If we're talking points, OU's defense was not better than USC's.
No disrespect to the Trojans, but they have the same chances to win it all as the other top 15 teams. There was nothing unique about USC that makes me think they are vastly superior to everyone else.
You don't think there's a reason they appear to be a unanimous preseason #1 (at least in every ranking I've seen). I really don't think there's a question they're the most talented team in the country. They've had four consecutive #1 or 2 ranked recruiting classes. They return 10 starters from the 11th ranked scoring defense. Booty could be a first round pick next year. That's what they've got going for them that every other team doesn't.
by Old Tex29 on May 8, 2007 2:36 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Fine
it's a war of semantics. Your thread started with "the best" and now you claim specifics, which really doesn't lead to anything.
IMO, 11th does not equal "the best next year". It just means they were good and will continue to be.
by EYESofBEVO on May 8, 2007 2:45 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think there's a chance that that could happen.
USC is absolutely loaded this year. On paper, there isn't another team in the country that comes close to what they have right now.
by Old Tex29 on May 8, 2007 12:06 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
No
From a homer prospective, I don't think I could ever predict UT getting shellacked.
But even so, while USC will certainly be strong next year, I don't see their offense as being as good as in the past. Even with Booty returning, losing Jarrett will hurt. They will be good, but I am not ready to give up on being able to stay in a game with them before the season starts.
by Wells on May 8, 2007 12:46 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
no two undefeateds
I can't see two teams going in to the MNC game undefeated. As good as I think Texas, USC, LSU, Louisville, et al are going to be, I don't see any two of them going undefeated, maybe even no one at all. I think USC may have the best chance, but the Pac-10 will be better than last year and they are playing a difficult non-con schedule.
As always, I think Texas will be favored in every game but we will have a game where things just don't go the way we want them to. It happens every season (except when we had that really good QB a couple seasons ago) at least once.
Anyway, I still think we have a great shot at making the MNC game, along with USC, but I'm not willing to make a formal prediction just yet.
by BigTexBD on May 8, 2007 1:04 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Texas is still a year away from serious MNC...
... consideration, given that they have to replace the bulk of the O-Line and have a lot to prove on D. Give me 2008, when all of these studs from the 2005 and 2006 classes start to make an impact, and we have Colt and Jamaal and ____ (fill in the blank with any of a half-dozen wide receivers) leading a record-setting offense. That's right - I'm predicting the 50 points per game will be at risk!
This season I'll be content with a Big XII Championship and BCS bowl victory.
by patienthornsfan on May 8, 2007 2:28 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
agreed
I think USC and maybe Mich in the final game. I mean that could change totally of course. I don't think this is texas' year. It's not getting any easier to get out of the BIG XII undefeated, just like all the others(reasons for a playoff??). The BIG XII is returning all improved teams this year. What we should be asking ourselves is who will be in the BIG XII title game (although I suppose not because everyone would say texas/nebraska) but that's what should really be discussed.
by carsondude on May 8, 2007 2:33 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
That was my thought as well.
Too many question marks on the O-line right now. A good O-line makes the passing game and the running game much easier. We lost too many long time starters to graduation. While the incoming class is no slouch, they need time to gell into a unit, and need another summer wtih Mad Dog.
by Brandon 97 on May 9, 2007 9:56 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
One more clarification
I don't think that Texas will get shellacked by USC, I think that it could happen (like 3% chance). USC is the most talented team in the country IMO. I also think that Texas could shellack USC if things broke right.
I also agree with patienthornsfan that 2008 will be UT's year.
by Old Tex29 on May 8, 2007 2:41 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I left out the ACC,
And I should have given Va Tech some love. They'll be on a mission this season, the way LSU played after Katrina. I just dont know anything about the VT team, returning starters, recruiting, etc.
My Texas pick wasn't so much bc I'm a homer, but more bc I think that despite our ugly pass defense we were one healthy McCoy away from 12-1 or 11-2 last year. Looking at the schedule, we get KSU, Neb, and TT at home this year. Going undefeated is extraordinarilly difficult, but I think that our offense will be better and our defense cant be worse. 2008 may be the season we circle on the calendar, but '07 ought to get real interesting.
by DogTown on May 9, 2007 8:55 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
clarification
I meant "VT will be on a mission this season, SIMILAR to the way LSU played after Katrina in '05."
by DogTown on May 9, 2007 8:58 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
USC is the clear #1
USC is absolutely loaded! They are head & shoulders above all other programs. I look for them to face LUS in the NC game, though it might be a WVU team. We're at least a year away from title contention. You don't win championships with a patchwork O-Line. Our D-Backfield will be punked much of the season. I look for us to lose to OU, @ OU-Lite and @ A&M.
by HornChamps on May 10, 2007 11:41 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Predicting losses to OU and A&M
No one will accuse you of being a homer.
While I agree with you about us being a year away, what do you see in A&M and OU that has you already marking down the losses.
by Wells on May 10, 2007 11:46 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I wish I had your collective optimism
But with a newly solo OC, a QB who can be rattled, and a new WR corps, I'll reserve judgment. If our fullbacks remain healthy enough to run-block, that will be cause for optimism to counter the gloom. Nothing wrong with three yards and a cloud of dust.
by DC Trojan on May 10, 2007 12:06 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
How great is it ? . . .
. . . to even be thinking of another MNC for daHorns? It's fantastic. Back in the day I measured the season by whether we beat Baylor. Ugh.
Who thought (really) that we'd be playing for the national championship in '77, '80, 82, and '05 before the season even started?
I think we'll be in the mix in '07, but we have some hurdles. The Agros will be on fire, again. The Sooners will be tough, again. Tech will be their usual yardage machine, again. Who knows how the TCU game will go? Last year, we gave KSU and aTm the impression that they were good and we have to convince them otherwise. With a new OLine and new DBs we are gonna have to get it together pretty fast to go anywhere near undefeated. Even with Colt we need #25 to be in the Heisman conversation and the DLine and seasoned LB corps to come up big.
I'll keep my prediction in line with MB's history: we'll go 11-1 and play for the BigXII Championship. If we are good enough to win that game, the records of the other D-1 contenders (USC, WVU, UM, etc.) will determine whether a one-loss BigXII team can play for the MNC. It sure is cool to legitimately believe that Texas is good enough to be there!
by Arby A on May 11, 2007 12:04 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Oh, Yeah. I forgot the orignial question.
No. A one loss SEC won't leapfrog an undefeated BigXII team.
If Texas, OU, or Nebraska goes undefeated they will almost surely play for the MNC. To go undefeated, Texas and Nebrask will probably have to beat each other twice.
If Tech goes undefeated they will have beaten Texas, OU, aTm, OkState, etc. Tech doesn't play Nebraska, but anyway that would be a pretty impressive resume. An undefeated OkState will have beaten Georgia and Nebraska in addition to Tech, Texas, and OU.
Quite a few BigXII teams have played for the MNC recently. I can't see a one-loss team from any conference getting the nod over an undefeated Tech or OkState.
It boggles the mind that any other BigXII team could go undefeated. I can't see how Kansas State, Mizzou, or aTm could manage it.
As for the Big10 or Pac10, no way. The media loves those leagues and proves it every year. Only Cal and SC have a shot at going undefeated in the Pac10, anyway. An undefeated Big10 team is always gonna get the love, even if it's Purdue. If Wisconsin, Iowa, or Minnesota went undefeated they'd go just to stick it to the south. We all know what happens when OSU or UM go undefeated. They're in.
by Arby A on May 11, 2007 12:47 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
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