FanPost

Is Greg Schiano 'the next Fran'?

After back-to-back bowl seasons in 2005 and '06 (first time in school history), Rutgers football coach Greg Schiano is one of the hottest young coaches in college football. Following a historic 11-win season in 2006, Schiano was linked to several possible head coach openings, including the University of Alabama and the University of Miami. He turned all offers down, saying he is going to stay at Rutgers (he is a New Jersey native).
For many Rutgers fans, this was terrific news, as they feel they are hanging on to one of the brightest young coaches in the game, a rising star with a defensive background. But is Rutgers' recent good fortunes the results of Schiano's coaching genius, or the good luck brought on by timely conference re-alignment which favored Rutgers?

Dennis Franchione pushed his name into the national consciousness of college football fans with a 10-1 season in 2000. TCU made headlines because they were a member of the Western Athletic Conference (WAC) at the time, a non-BCS Conference, and arguments abounded about whether or not an undefeated team in a non-BCS conference should receive a shot at playing for the national title.
Such talk was quelled on November 4, 2000, when San Jose State upset Franchione's Horned Frogs, and ended their undefeated season. TCU finished the year 10-1 (current head coach Gary Patterson coached TCU in their loss in the Mobile (AL) Bowl), and Fran went on to take the head coaching position at the University of Alabama.
It looked like a good hire for Alabama, because Fran had taken TCU from 1-10 in 1997 to 7-5 (and a bowl win) in 1998, 8-4 in 1999, and then 10-1 in 2000. Fran looked like a hot coach, a master at rebuilding down programs, and Alabama was thrilled to get him.
Closer inspection, however, revealed that the 2000 10-win season wasn't so much a result of Franchione's coaching genius as it was competitive programs leaving the WAC to form the Mountain West Conference (MWC). After the 1999 season, BYU, New Mexico, Utah, Wyoming, Colorado State, San Diego State, Air Force, and UNLV all left the WAC to form their own conference, the Mountain West Conference. With no BYU, Colorado State, or Air Force on their schedule, TCU steamrolled through their 2000 conference slate, until they fell to San Jose State.
After leading Alabama to 7-5 and 10-3 seasons in 2001 and 2002, respectively, Fran moved on to Texas A&M, where he promptly fell flat on his face, going 4-8, 7-5, 5-6, and 9-4 in his four seasons there. His deficiencies as a coach were revealed when he had to face a real conference schedule with real opponents, and he didn't have a roster full of bought talent (see Alabama tenure) to beat up on inferior programs.
Clearly, a weakened WAC schedule in 2000 set Fran up for his big run, which led to his current setting today, where he is considered by many to be a fraud of a coach, making a salary reserved for coaches who win conference and national championships, while he sets school records for worst-ever performances yearly.
When Greg Schiano arrived at Rutgers in the Fall of 2000, they were coming off a 3-8 season under Terry Shea. Schiano followed that with seasons of 2-9 in 2001, 1-11 in 2002, 5-7 in 2003, and 4-7 in 2004, before breaking through with a winning season (7-5) and bowl bowl birth in 2005. In 2006, Rutgers appeared to have arrived as a program, going 11-2 and capturing their first bowl win in school history, defeating Kansas State in the inaugural Texas Bowl.
What changed from 2004 to now? Try the composition of the conference. After the 2003 season, Virginia Tech and Miami left the Big East, joining the Atlantic Coast Conference. Boston College followed a year later, joining the ACC following the 2004 season. Why is this significant? In the four seasons from 2001-2004, Rutgers was a combined 0-10 against Miami, Virginia Tech, and Boston College.  
Miami, Virginia Tech, and Boston College were replaced on the conference schedule with Louisville, Cincinnati, and South Florida. Rutgers went 1-2 against that slate in '05 (win over Cincinnati, 44-9), and 2-1 in 2006 (loss to Cincinnati, 30-11). If they had faced the Virginia Tech, Miami, and Boston College triumvirate in 2005, that 6-5 regular season record arguably would have been 5-6, meaning no winning season and no bowl appearance for Schiano, and quite possibly no more Schiano at Rutgers (difficult to believe they'd keep him after 5 straight losing seasons).
Other ways Schiano is similar to Fran? Embarrassing losses to inferior programs (Baylor 2004 for Fran, D-IAA New Hampshire in 2004 for Schiano); historical blowout losses in their first season (77-0 to OU in '03 for Fran, 80-7 to West Virginia in '01 for Schiano); difficulty beating one particular spread-obsessed program (Texas Tech for Fran, although he did beat them in 2004; West Virginia for Schiano, he is 0-6 for his career against them).
How are they different? Fran made his bones as an offensive coordinator as an assistant, before becoming a nomadic head coach, moving up the ladder at several programs before reaching his current perch at Texas A&M. Schiano was a defensive coordinator, making his mark at Miami in 1999-2000 before taking the Rutgers job. He currently acts as Rutgers' defensive coordinator along with his head coaching duties on gameday. Unlike Franchione, Schiano played college football during his college career.
Reasons for optimism for that Schiano might avoid Fran's fate? Schiano claims he wants to stay at Rutgers, because he is a New Jersey native. He has done a good job recruiting Florida, building his defensive unit around imported speed from the Sunshine State. He can stay in the revamped Big East, and be a consistent bowl team and even 10-game winner. He might even break the streak against West Virginia, and get his program into a BCS bowl.
Reasons for pessimism? I'm hearing rumors that Schiano might take the Penn State head job whenever Joe Paterno finally retires/dies on the sideline. Although the Big Ten (11) does have a rotating schedule that allows you to avoid playing the league heavyweights every other year, there are no Cincinnatis or Temples to feat on every season in conference play. If Schiano does move on to take the head job at Penn State, I believe he'll just be exposed as another Franchione.

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