What Will JC Do?
by Peter Bean on Jun 26, 2007 10:37 AM CDT
in Texas Longhorns Basketball
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PrintAfter the 2005 championship season, I giggled drunkenly about Jamaal Charles and his chance to be the "best tailback to ever play at Texas when it's all said and done." (There's a reason I love Bill Walton, you know...)
Charles' sophomore encore, and the running game as a whole, was a mild disappointment, however. Compare Jamaal's freshman and sophomore seasons:
His net production didn't drop off much in 2006, but his efficiency plummeted. After a whopping 7.4 yards per carry in his freshman campaign, Charles regressed to the mean, picking up only 5.3 yards per pop last season.
To put the numbers in context, last year's 7+ yards per carry (min. 100 attempts) tailbacks are charted below:
Meanwhile, down in the 5.3 yards per attempt range, Charles is surrounded by Jonathan Stewar, Tyrell Sutton, and Matt Forte.
Yards per carry, of course, is not the be all and end all of a running back's worth. After all, Ricky Williams "only" averaged 5.9 yards per attempt during his Heisman Trophy-winning senior season. Rutgers' Ray Rice set the Big East rushing record last season on 5.4 yards per attempt.
But therein also lies the rub: Williams (366 attempts) and Rice (335 attempts) were given the football over and over again. And then still more. Charles rushed about half that many times in 2006. Though his efficiency numbers are fine (if not elite as they were in '05), an elite tailback must excel at one or the other. Either he must spring for big yards per attempt or he must be capable of handling two or three dozen carries per game, while maintaining a solid average.
Charles accomplished neither in 2006. Splitting carries with Selvin Young, he never had the opportunity to amass large numbers of attempts, and when he did get the ball, he didn't produce like the elite back that many of us think he is.
So what now? If Charles is as special as we think he is, there's some reason to think he could enjoy an explosion in production similar to the gains Reggie Bush enjoyed between his sophomore and junior seasons (from 6.4 to 8.7 YPA). Given the concerns about Charles' ability to carry a heavy workload, that's probably the ideal scenario - a modest increase in attempts (up to, say, 200, the number of attempts Bush had in '05) with a jump in efficiency back to his freshman season rates.
Reggie Bush may not be an ideal comparison for any running back, and I don't mean to say Charles has that kind of season in him this (or any) year. Still, we've seen enough highlight material from Charles to know that he's got similar explosiveness and the ability to pick up 6.5+ yards per attempt.
While many wonder whether Charles is built for 25-30 attempts per game, I think the more important question is how Davis gameplans the offense as a whole. You'll soon grow tired of hearing me talk about this, but one more time: the strength of the Texas passing offense ought to motivate Davis to run off of the pass, and not vice versa. If that happens, I haven't a doubt in the world that Charles can enjoy a 200 attempt, 1300 yard season.
--PB--
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JC's durability
by Arby A on Jun 26, 2007 11:07 AM CDT reply actions
mmm hmmm
agreed. That is all.
by DestroyerUT on Jun 26, 2007 3:22 PM CDT up reply actions
J Charles will have his opputunity to get 25-30
I trust that Mack Brown is a man of his word. Mack has said he will give J Charles a chance to get as many carries as possible. How J Charles's body responds to the carries will be what dictates how many more games he receives 25-30 carries. With Texas having a 12 game regular season I think we will need to rotate the running backs in order to keep everyone healthy for the entire season.
Chris Ogbonnaya and J Charles will be a great 1,2 running back punch. Lets also remember that many of J Charles rushing yards early in the 2005 season came against the weaker teams on the schedule in mop up duty because he was not the starter (Louisiana-Laf 145, Rice 190).
In summary, I like J Charles and I think he can have a monster season, but I also think that the offense will take the approach of taking what the defense gives them. I believe early in the season teams will gear up to stop the pass and make Texas beat them on the ground. If we are able to run the ball effectively when defenses attempt to take away the pass that is when our offense will really become effective.
- BigTEx
by BigTex on Jun 26, 2007 12:07 PM CDT reply actions
JC
I also was giddy about the possibility of JC improving in his sophomore campaign off of his promising freshman year, and like many, was somewhat disappointed with not only JC, but the running game as a whole. PB makes a great point about the pass opening up for the run. Hopefully Greg Davis will see things the same way. With the receiving corps ability to spread the field horizontally (Cosby/Finley) as well as vertically (Sweed/Shipley/Pittman), there should be plenty of running room for JC and Co. One thing I noticed when looking at the 7+ ypc list is that each of those four backs split a significant amount of carries. Slaton (who carried the biggest load of the four) with QB Pat White, Ilaoa with a back even bigger than himself (don' t remember the name, but the dude was HUGE), Spiller with James Davis, and Jones with Darren McFadden. JC had his better season when he had a situation sort of like what WVU has with Slaton and White. Ilaoa's success was more due to Brennan and Co. stretching the field for him (hopefully what Colt and Co. can do for JC this year). Big Tex makes a good point as well about Ogbannaya splitting carries with JC. Ogbannaya is a little more of a pounder than JC and could be useful once a defense is softened up a little (sort of comparable to Spiller/Davis and Jones/McFadden; yes I realize that Ogbannaya isn't quite the talent of Davis or McFadden, but using him at the right times could have a similar effect). Hopefully my ramblings will prove prophetic and JC will enjoy a huge junior season.
two reasons for Charles' problems seem obvious
to me
- sophomore slump
I asked my buddy the texas fan about this, and he agreed that texas backs seem to suffer form a sophomore slump. Maybe it honestly isn't so much a slump as it is expectations getting out of control after stellar freshman seasons, but I remember Cedric Benson having a disappointing (compared to expectations) sophomore season. Before him, how did Hodges Mitchell do his sophomore year? I really don't have stats to back up my theory here, it is just an observation.
- no Vince Young
You want to run the Dart series, it helps when the other team chooses to force the Give read every time you're running Dart Option or Dart Trap, b/c they're afraid of what your QB can do running the ball. They'll take the damage the RB can do on the play in exchange for not giving up the huge play to the QB.
With Colt in the backfield, forcing the Give read was child's play. They didn't have to worry about the Keep read, and could take turns punishing the TB.
If you want to see an example of both choices being a bad decision for the defense, go watch West Virginia play.
#2
In the case of Charles, it's much more #2 than #1.
It's a whole bunch of #2, in fact.
Still, he's no paper tiger. I do think he's better than he performed last year, even if he can't match what he was lining up next to VY.
We shouldn't even try that play
First of all, it is sideways, which isn't so bad on a sweep where there is momentum, but if the QB isn't going to run (and Colt isn't) then the play is a waste of time. Even when the QB hands off he can still take Scott Ware-type shots. It isn't even as good as the old veer or a real option. Many times JC would get the ball standing still or trying to stop and go the other way. That might work if the defense is thinking about a running QB, but last year it led to a lot of TFLs. Either get rid of the play or just call it a play action fake sweep from the shotgun. It shouldn't be a bread-and-butter play until we get a running QB in there.
by Arby A on Jun 27, 2007 12:52 AM CDT up reply actions
Your getting two plays confused
The read, where the QB makes a choice, is not that sideways, as the running back is supposed to go off tackle.
The other play you are thinking about is a zone blocking run, where the QB is always going to make the hand off and the running back is supposed to follow the line to the outside, waiting for a hole to develop as the offensive line stretches the D to the outside.
Dohh!
Now I am confused about which play is the "Dart Read" and which is the "zone blocking run". Is there someplace where I can see them diagrammed? I hate to look dumb, but I really don't know that much about the technical aspects of this.
What I DO know is there is a play that we ran (or tried to run) over and over for seemingly no positive yardage. Its the one where McCoy runs past JC and gives him the ball. JC is standing still and has to avoid whatever defender is following McCoy. It looks like a sideways sprint draw. Whichever play that is we should either stop running it or figure out how it is supposed to work.
by Arby A on Jun 27, 2007 1:17 PM CDT up reply actions
What he calls the dart
Is what I would call the option read we ran all the time with Vince. It is where the QB reads the defensive end from a shotgun formation, and either keeps it and runs outside or hands off to the running back, who is cutting in front of the QB to hit a hole near the right tackle. We ran this very little with Colt, but people thought we were running it a lot because it looks like most runs out of a shotgun formation.
What I call a zone blocking run, is what we ran more of, and did not work even close to as well as it did in 2005. The theory of the play is you move your line outside and they each block in a zone area, stretching the defense so they can not cover all of the gaps. The running back then follows to the outside and picks the uncovered gap to run through.
Why this did not work as well last year as it did in 2005 is up for debate, but I think it is a combo of two things:
- The running backs waiting too long looking for the perfect hole to open up instead of just using instincts and hitting a hole.
- The defenses were committing enough players to the run that they filled up the holes, resulting in run stopping, but also opening up the pass. This was mostly due to Vince not being there, allowing teams to not have to commit a player just to stop Vince from running and not fearing the pass as much.
Anyone please correct if my terminology is incorrect.
Look for them to try and widen the gaps
Something that did not work when Nunez was the O-line coach, way back when.
Arby could be describing a counter that Texas uses, minus a fullback pulling away.
For two years now the running game has been a made of various plays where the RB's march up and down the line of scimmage looking for a hole (see A&M 05).
IMO, it really wasn't all that effective in 05 and in 06 it was exposed. Vince could make just about any offense run, masking any flaws.
I think we should just be happy with what the offense does well. Maybe the running game will improve as JC matures as a player.
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