Community Projection: Jamaal Charles

...but one. I think he finishes second to McFadden for the Heisman.

the titans' blog

http://www.musiccitymiracles.com/

but my predictions on jamaal are

15-18 carries a game
5.9 yards per carry
1203 yards
and 12 TD's

First post here after lurking for a while, but I couldn't resist with Jamaal as the topic.

I whole heartedly agree with jprice that:

please get Jamaal in open space.

On a team not blessed with so much experience and speed in the wide receiving corps, many coaches would love to get JC split out in open space. But that's not particularly feasible or necessary on this year's team. So it will be flares and screens, delays and the occasional wheel routes. That should be enough to push up the hair product sales for a dozen defensive coordinators.

A lot depends on just how gDavis implements and accents the spread offense. And nobody has said it, but it's sounding a whole lot more like Tech all the time. I really don't want that, but I'd love to see more of Leach's sense of attack.

However, there are two aspects of JC that say running should be more than a cursory part of the Horns' attack. One is his vision in the hole and the ability to physically adjust in motion, at times reminiscent of Emmett Smith - and that's high praise. The second is his acceleration, which I find on par with Tony Dorsett. Just no visible sign that he is changing gears. But he needs decent holes to do that, much better lead blocking and some sustained seams for that acceleration.

Quiet frankly, I found the running game pathetic last year. One of my coaching friends, a long time practitioner of the spread and who also has a son that's a significant player on the team, discussed how crucial this was. We agreed the team found ways to compensate and score, but that it altered what could have been a much better balance for the offense. Another thing which was lacking - the general deep passing game - seem to relate, for they both required quite specific blocking. We didn't dismiss intent (not a GD fan) but the O-line is normally the culprit in such situations (and that is a general allegation).

That said, if JC can get better blocking and a decent fullback or blocking back and the offense can pass as well as it should, JC should be looking at a 1,500 yard season, some long TDs and maybe 10-12 scores in all.

The issue with JC is durability. He has shown some of the Roy Williams racehorse syndrome - that is, how well he can perform if mildly injured. I take the high ankle sprains as serious, though, it was for Metcalf and any other backs (including the DBs last year). For someone who's whole running style keys around fluent and virtually intuitive moves, JC stands to lose more than the average back with such injuries. High ankle sprains, hamstring and groin pulls degrade his ability to do what he does best and to utilize his incredible speed. He has added strength and muscle, but I doubt if he will ever be the stereotypical one-back workhorse. He was in HS but this is a whole different level of punishment.

So, the last real issue is carries. Last year the killer was a 12-game schedule without any breaks. This year is the same. We had minimum injuries in 2005, last year we didn't. To me, this is the unstated threat to this team, for such a stretch requires more depth, especially in the O-line. That plays into JC carries and no real depth at RB. It's obvious that a lot of carries have to be devoted to the back-ups early in the season, and that means in key games where it really counts like TCU and K-State before we get to OU.

The kid can do amazing things - I just want to see him able to do them. I want the opposition to worry about him going EZ every time he touches the ball.

Sorry about the length, but this was a fun topic.

post suggested UT use Jamaal Charles like Garrett Wolfe.  Fantastic idea, and the stats cited that Wolfe put up in 2006 are certainly something to shoot for.  However, the thing that scares me to death every time Charles touches the ball is that he's way too prone to coughing it up.  If Charles could match any statistic of Wolfe's it would be these: 2004-zero fumbles; 2005-zero fumbles; 2006-zero fumbles. This from a guy who's 5'7" and 177lbs., so Charles at 6'1"/205 is hardly too small or fragile to get it done.  He just needs to quit putting the ball on the carpet.

Mack has always gone with dependability at running back.  JC must show 3 things in order to get "primary back" carries.

1.  Hang on to the ball.

2.  Blitz pickup (this will be HUGE this year).

3.  Minimize negative carries.

If he is able to successfully do these things, he will get the carries.  With his talent as a runner, and the threat of our passing game, I think the low end of his YPC is 5.5.  I think that Jamaal will do these things (at least as good as anyone else at RB), garnering 17-18 attempts per game.  So...

1155 yards rushing
250 yards receiving
11 total TD's

Seeing the runs by Eric Metcalf spurred the answer to JC's production. JC is easy (relatively compared to say runners like Cedric Benson) to tackle. Some backs Earl Campbell and Ricky Williams, were strong and didn't go down with arm tackles they had to be gang tackled, others like Eric Metcalf and Vince Young are slippery and deceptive and make tacklers miss them.

As much as I would like to see JC have a good year he won't improve much. His YPC average will go down. His YPC is dependant on a big O line push and since he is easy to bring down he doesn't really break many in to the D back field. So with a less dominating O line means less of an up field push which may shave as much as a yard off his YPC.

With Colt McCoy and the good receiving crew the Longhorns will pass to win and run to keep the defense honest which will cut the number of attempts for JC and since the runs will be used to slow the pass rush they will come in down situations which are less liable to result in good gains. So overall running yardage will go down also.  

His tendency to fumble has given me so many scares, I though I was going to die early of a heart attack.  His small size was never a big fear for me, I really never expected him to be a between the tackles RB and an open field back at the same time.  

I really hope we use his incredible speed more this year and get him the ball with somewhere to go.  One of the saddest stats I saw from last season was that Jamaal's longest run was only 45 yards.  I don't think he'll average more than 15 carries a game, but he'll be getting quite a few receptions, say 3-5.

My guess:
14 carries per game
4 receptions per game
6.3 ypc
1200 yards rushing
1650 all purpose yards
15 touchdowns