Community Projections: Colt McCoy
by Peter Bean on Jul 26, 2007 1:07 PM CDT
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Whereas Colt McCoy redshirted as a true freshman, in 1999 Ken Dorsey started three games as a true freshman and appeared in two more. Both players assumed full-time starting roles in their second seasons in the program. Check out their numbers:
Outstanding numbers from both players in their first year as the team's full-time quarterback. Scarily, McCoy's numbers are a little bit depressed from the injury he suffered in Manhattan. Who knows how high the numbers go if he doesn't suffer that stinger injury?
How did Dorsey do in his encore junior campaign? Not too shabby at all.
He completed 57.9% of his passes for 2,652 yards, with 23 TDs and just 9 INTs. He won the Maxwell Award, finished third in Heisman Trophy balloting, and helped lead the Canes to the 2001 National Title with a masterful performance in Miami's 37-14 win over Nebraska in the Rose Bowl.
Dorsey provides a good example of how difficult it can be to improve upon elite first-year numbers. Dorsey's overall statistics were consistent with his sophomore season, but he wasn't able to bump them up much. He did, however, improve in the red zone and on third downs, something McCoy can take a step forward with in 2007.
Teams will be respecting McCoy in a different way this season, as well. He certainly won't be catching anyone by surprise, that's for sure, as both the Big 12 media and bloggers have him pegged as the preseason conference Offensive Player of the Year.
With as many weapons as McCoy will have to throw passes to, I'm expecting big things, so you might file my projection in the optimistic category. I'm looking forward to reading everyone else's.
Colt McCoy 2007 projection: 240-365, 65.7%, 2,900 yards, 30 TDs, 8 INT
Your turn.
--PB--
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I think Colt's strong numbers were due in part to the offense's strong reliance on the passing game. I'd be happy to take some more modest numbers from Colt if it means Charles is getting more carries and productive yards.
In any case, I think the Ken Dorsey comparisons are spot-on.
By the way, came across this on Yahoo Sports (via Rivals)...
Texas true freshman John Chiles will have a tough decision on his hands in the coming weeks.
The Rivals100 athlete can either follow Vince Young's example and redshirt to develop as a quarterback, or he can play right away and be an impact receiver, safety or kick returner.
Like another Texas super recruit, Chiles comes to the Longhorns as a raw passer but with athletic ability to spare.
"He saw Vince redshirt. He was an inconsistent passer early in his career. That's what worked for him and kids are saying I want to be Vince Young I want to wait and slow down," Texas coach Mack Brown said. "John has been a little more confused of whether he would like to be a quarterback or a receiver or a kickoff returner. He can do all these things."
Redshirting probably would mean an end to playing other positions for Chiles, who arrived in the spring and will go through two-a-days before making a decision.
I'm fine with Harris as our back-up. He's a more established passer than Chiles, and he can still fill a Tebow-esque running role if that's what the coaches are writing in. I'm wondering, though, how does this bode for the Russell Shephard recruiting? Colt's set for the next 3 years, and presumably we're hoping Chiles can take over the next two after that (if he does indeed redshirt). Obviously, this isn't an immediate problem, nor might it ever be a problem, but it's something for the recruiting fans to think about.
by jc25 on Jul 26, 2007 1:24 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I s'pose
'Frighteningly' would have been a better choice.
But it works well enough as is, I guess.
by Peter Bean on Jul 26, 2007 2:06 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
No, no
its a perfectly cromulent word...
by BrooklynHorn on Jul 26, 2007 2:39 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Lets see.........
250 - 325 for 3400 yards
25 TD passes
10 INT.
MVP-MNC in New Orleans..............
by ouALWAYSsux on Jul 26, 2007 2:42 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
67% completion rate, 3800 yds, 40 TDs - 10 INTs
And Heisman runner up to some douchbag from USC or SEC. But Sweeeeeeeeeedd will be BCS MVP as he destroys whatever DBs line up against him.
by DogTown on Jul 26, 2007 3:32 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
On his first snap against Arkie St.
Colt will begin to shine. And by shine I mean an iridescent glow will emanate from his skin, strong enough to even pass through his uniform and helmet. Lights will not be necessary for night games. Colt will also begin to exhibit levels of levitation unheard of outside of certain communities of swamis in South Asia. His passes will always find their way safely to his receivers, looking much like remote control airplanes as they correct their course in mid-air. When Colt runs, well, the best way to describe it will be "Bo Jackson in Tecmo Bowl". By the end of the season (a perfect season by the way, not just in terms of wins but also in that he will not throw an incomplete pass), Colt McCoy will ascend to the heights of Olympus where he will spend the rest of his days manipulating us mortals as though we were little clay figurines (a la Clash of the Titans).
I don't know, call it a hunch.
by Kahuna on Jul 26, 2007 3:46 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I don't understand......
.........why redshirting has to mean that Chiles would have to say goodbye to playing other positions. He could redshirt, then be used in spot roles for a year, and if he impresses that much we worry about a QB controversy in Colt's Senior season.
Listen, QB controversies only really suck if you can't pick because they're both terrible (see Casey Dick/Robert Johnson from Arkansas a couple of years back).
If a Chiles is good enough to knock out a Senior version of Colt McCoy, I guarantee I won't be complaining, and if not he's the kind of guy that can ignite the offense in so many ways (like ol' Ramonce).
by thestos on Jul 26, 2007 3:53 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
regression toward the mean
it's very unlikely that McCoy exceeds his numbers from last year. he had a phenomenal RS-Freshman season, well above the average performance of ncaa QBs regardless of experience.
from the perspective of statistics 101, anytime you have an extreme stat, it's more likely to be closer to the mean/average when measured again.
colt made some amazing plays last year, but had a lot of things break his way.
plus, he's going to have a less experienced OL and see more defenses orchestrated to stop #12.
by cortexas on Jul 26, 2007 11:16 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I really like statistical analysis
but I disagree with you. You assume that his mean is below last season's performance, but what if it's actually above that line? His experience and talent rich supporting cast make me think that he can blow people up this year. I know we all agree that pure stats aren't the only measure of QB though. I'm sure okie fans would rather have heupel's 21/14 ratio and nat champ rather than jason white's 40/8 AND his dismal showing against K-State, LSU, and USC. C-Mac can go 20/15 so long as the team is undefeated.
I appear to be rambling, so I give up. I wish football would start already. My tv is dying of boredom.
by DogTown on Jul 27, 2007 12:52 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
better than average for NCAA QBs as a RS Freshman
the point i was trying to make was that he had a better than the average year for the "population" of NCAA QBs. same as if you take the GRE and score a 1300 - any extreme statistic is likely to regress toward the mean when sampled again. even if you're truly "better than average".
that goes for everyone. i expect JC to regress upward toward the mean for starting NCAA RBs too.
it's a handy heuristic.
by cortexas on Jul 30, 2007 9:36 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
You can tell he grown up.
Last year CM was still a teenager. At the beginning of last season he was unsure and tentative.
He has grown up and grown into the leader of the offense. He's bigger, stronger and full of confidence.
So much about playing QB is psychological than just having physical talent. Colt is going to improve because he's much better prepared to lead the team from the first game and if he stays healthy his stats should be be better because he will do better in the first two games and the last two games compared to last years. That's 6-8 quarters of much improved play. The early patsies (throw in Baylor and Rice) will get torched 4-5 TD's per game and 350-400 yards much more than last season. The only way the numbers go down if big leads push CM out for some 2nd string experience for the backups.
255-385 66.2% 3,185 32-9
by Xerxes on Jul 27, 2007 10:35 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
what a difference a year makes
comp% 68
yards 2800
td - int 25-10
qb rating 160%
i know the td are a little low and the int # is up a little but realistically who was the last qb to put up back to back 30 td seasons. (i will research that stat right after this). also think he will be 5 or 6 in the heisman race. hopefully a big XII championship and 3 wins in revenge games
by kcc28 on Jul 28, 2007 4:24 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
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