Preseason BlogPoll Ballot, Draft 1

by Peter Bean on Aug 21, 2007 2:26 PM CDT in Basketball Comment 29 comments

I'm not in love with preseason polls, for obvious, frequently articulated reasons, but the members of the BlogPoll are gearing up for our annual stab at the preseason ordering of teams. Methodologically speaking, as someone who's come around to leaning heavily on resume for ranking, this is the hardest one of the year.

With that in mind, please note that this is Preseason Ballot Draft. BlogPollers are submitting ballots today, looking at the composite results, and opening the floor for discussion. A final, official preseason ballot will be compiled a week from now.

Before I give this year's preseason ranks a first go, a quick tour of, gulp, last year's submission.

The Good There's not much good stuff here, at least at the top. Louisville at #7 was about as close as I got in the top ten. Beyond that, West Virginia, Nebraska, Boston College, and TCU were all pegged about right.

The Bad Um, everything else? Texas at #1 was, as noted at the time, a homerific nod to the champs. I was convinced we'd beat Ohio State, and if that had happened, it've looked mighty good. 'Specially if McCoy doesn't get hurt. As is, the wheels came off and Texas' post-VY weaknesses were exposed.

Auburn and Notre Dame were woefully overrated, while Iowa at #5 was just criminal. I blame Brian, who hyped 'em all the way up to #2.

And now, 2007:

Rank	Team	Delta
1	Southern Cal	25
2	West Virginia	24
3	Michigan	23
4	Texas	22
5	LSU	21
6	Oklahoma	20
7	Hawaii	19
8	Louisville	18
9	Florida	17
10	Virginia Tech	16
11	Florida State	15
12	Penn State	14
13	Ohio State	13
14	South Carolina	12
15	Alabama	11
16	Missouri	10
17	Oregon	9
18	Texas A&M	8
19	Tennessee	7
20	Oklahoma State	6
21	Wisconsin	5
22	Georgia	4
23	UCLA	3
24	TCU	2
25	California	1

Dropped Out:

Remember, this is a draft. This is your time to use the comments. Debate, argue, tell me I'm dumb. Let's start the discussion.

--PB--

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Comments

Hawaii at #7?????

People really need to stop drinking the Colt Brennan Kool-Aid (Mai Tai's). Makes me sick.

by bleed burnt orange on Aug 21, 2007 2:42 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Two things

First, take a look at that schedule. Which game are they going to lose?

Second, this is why preseason ranking is an exercise in futility. We need some actual data.

--PB--

by Peter Bean on Aug 21, 2007 2:51 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Just for argument's sake

They have the potential to lose every road game (except Idaho). The travel has to be killer and after opening day they go on the road 4 of the next 6.

Boise State game should be entertaining. And is a Pac-10 team usually scheduled as a finale???

by CyHorn770 on Aug 21, 2007 3:24 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

One more thing

Colt Brennan is a sexual predator:

On January 28, 2004, Brennan entered the dorm room of a University of Colorado coed uninvited and, according to the coed "exposed himself and fondled her."[1] Brennan, who was intoxicated at the time of the incident, was arrested and eventually pleaded guilty to charges of burglary and trespassing, but a guilty verdict for unlawful sexual contact was vacated by the court for lack of evidence.

Courtesy of wikipedia

by Wells on Aug 21, 2007 3:25 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

absolutely ludicrous.

i don't want to judge teams by the ease of their schedule. Hawaii is a joke.

Horns up, Okies Down.

by kicker on Aug 21, 2007 4:29 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

How'd we lose the corn?

Why no Nebraska anywhere in the 25?

While they should have a decent year, I'm not sure Missouri is a #16.

by Shake on Aug 21, 2007 2:50 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Open to debate

I can't figure out what to do with Nebraska. I think they're a top 30 team, without question, but I'm wagering on Missouri being the better team.

I honestly don't know. How good will Sam Keller be? Is Bill Callahan going to make some better adjustments this year?

I could see the Huskers losing 4-5 games and missing out on the top 25.

But that's why this thread is open. I'm listening for feedback.

--PB--

by Peter Bean on Aug 21, 2007 2:52 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

FSU

at #11. Come on, PB. Your better than that.

Hypothetical question: If Sammy Stroughter suits up before kickoff this season, does Oregon State crack the Top 25? Cal should also be a little higher, with the offense they field this year. Overall, good initial stab at the rankings, considering they don't mean much. Yet.

by joey on Aug 21, 2007 3:01 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

What, no Duke at #25?

If it's good enough for the OBC, it's good enough for you PB...

Also, since it doesn't mean much at this point, I'd suggest taking the Ags completely off the list. I'm a big believer in the power of positive thinking and I think that if we get everyone to positively believe that the Aggies don't merit top 25 consideration, they will proceed to flame out and go 0-12 this season.

And yes, as of this moment I do value Aggie suffering over Texas' Strength of Schedule. That may change in the near future but I'm grooving on it right now.

So take that.

by Kahuna on Aug 21, 2007 3:11 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Re:

Anyone catch that overrated/underrated ESPN article? (link here)

Anyways, here's the formula:

The formula was simple: We took a team's preseason ranking in the AP Top 25 poll and compared it to where that team finished the season. For example, if State U. was ranked No. 6 in the preseason poll and finished 11th, the team lost five points. Conversely, if State Tech was ranked 13th in the preseason and finished second, it gained 11 points.

Based on that data, over the past 10 seasons, here are the results:

Most overrated teams in last 10 years:

Florida State (-63)

Tennessee (-58)

Washington (-42)

Miami (-35)

T5. Ohio State (-34)
T5. Nebraska (-34)

Florida (-33 1/2)

Michigan (-25)

Texas (-24)

Clemson (-22)

Most underrated teams in last 10 years:

Washington St. (+51)

Boise State (+48)

Oregon (+32 1/2)

Arkansas (+26)

Wisconsin (+23)

Louisville (+20)

TCU (+18)

T8. Boston College (+17)
T8. Iowa (+17)
T8. Maryland (+17)
BCS Conferences:

Pac-10 (+60 1/2)

Big East (+9)

Big 10 (+3)

SEC (-12 1/2)

Big 12 (-78 1/2)

ACC (-102)

As you point out, PB, this is an exercise in futility, but based on Schlabach's article, you might be falling into a few traps.

Too high, perhaps?: Florida State at 11, Tennessee over Cal (with a likely Cal home win early on in the season), young Ohio State and Florida teams ranked in the top 15, and even Texas (gulp) and Michigan residing in the top 5.

Meanwhile, a couple teams that are perhaps too low might be: Unranked Boise St, who return a lot minus Zebransky, unranked Arkansas (with McFadden and Felix Jones), 21 Wisconsin and 24 TCU.

Again, it's all speculation, but it's fun food for thought.

by jc25 on Aug 21, 2007 3:18 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Yes to Flordia St

being too high.

No to Arkansas, too many problems in the off season including parents and players mutiny.

by Wells on Aug 21, 2007 3:29 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

RE: Arkansas

Travelling down the tangent here, but I cannot wait for September 13, 2008.

I miss that SWC rivalry.

by Shake on Aug 21, 2007 3:33 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

part of

the problem with the espn article is poor design of the scoring. They may have mentioned this in the article but if you are ranked #2 at the beginning of the year for all 10 years computed, then the most you could be underrated is 10 where as it is much more likely that you might lose a game near then end of the season and drop 5 points which brings you to be overrated by 50 points over a 10 year span.

As peter keeps pointing out, the preseason polls are retarded in the fact that you really can't know how a team will be and despite that fact, the poll has a huge amount of control over who is ranked 1 & 2 at the end of the year. The preseason poll basically turns everyone into vegas oddsmakers except vegas is much better at it than we are (or there would be no vegas).

by cliffaudit on Aug 21, 2007 3:37 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Where's the Vegas Poll, then.

Maybe someone should send ballots to all the gambling houses there (and any other legal ones) and let them construct a pre-season Top 25. Now that should be interesting.

by whills on Aug 21, 2007 11:15 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Absolutely correct

The scoring system the author used was full of holes. If a hypothetical team was preseason #4 for a decade and always finished 4th, they would still fall behind any team that started unranked every year for a decade but had one fantastic season (Utah) where they finished top 10. Additionally, if that #4 team had one bad year where they finished in the 20's or lower, then the scoring system makes them highly overrated despite the fact that for 9 other years they consistantly finished #4.
All this and we haven't even gotten to the subjective nature of pollsters themselves, as if they were a true metric of a team's "goodness."

But as to your top 25, I think Florida is too high. I imagine they will finish with 3 losses

by DogTown on Aug 22, 2007 7:51 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Can WV run the table?

If not, they cannot be #2 in my mind because they cannot lose a game and end up at #2 by season's end unless there is only one other team that has zero losses or 1 loss (combined) and even then a solid 2-loss team might hop them.

Personally, I think they cough up at least one somewhere. Flip side, schedule wise they have one of the better on-paper chances of going undefeated.

by CyHorn770 on Aug 21, 2007 3:32 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

LSU should be

at #2. If they beat Va. Tech, I think it gives them the momentum to run the table and play for the NC in their backyard.

The Aggies are top-15 at least. I see them beating ou and losing a close one to the Horns to finish second in the South.

Penn State is only the fourth best team in a conference with only one legit contender- Michigan. No way are they top 20.

Too much parity in the SEC for Florida to come out with only one loss; I don't see them in the top 10.

My dream is for someone to pull off a miracle against USC, resulting in a NC battle of undefeated Texas vs. undefeated LSU.

Okay, that was fun.

by sambo on Aug 21, 2007 3:58 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

I really don't care

if you don't rank Nebraska. I believe we'll be there but I guess we'll have to earn it. I will say this in defense of my Huskers. Sam Keller has already shown that he can throw for a shitload of yards and he did it with less of a surrounding cast than he has now. Now he plays for a team that actually gives a damn about football. What do you think is going to happen?

However, Wisconsin at #21? They're better than that. They're replacing a quarterback and what else from a team that did pretty well last year under a first year coach.

Alabama is ranked because.... Nick Saban is there? South Carolina is ranked because.... Steve Spurrier is there?

I don't see anything on either of those teams that looks particularly impressive.

You didn't rank Arkansas. Neither did I but I'll probably update mine to include them.

Go Big Red Nebraska!
Corn Nation - Graduating more of our players than you are!

by cornnation on Aug 21, 2007 4:52 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Hey...

You can tell us how good you're going to be as soon as you man up and tell us what kind of frickin corn we are! I love that Corns of the Big 12 thing and I check Corn Nation every day for Texas. You're breaking my heart, man!

"So, the A and the M are just there so you aren't TU?"

by Horn Brain on Aug 21, 2007 5:55 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

well.

it's up now and I hope you take it in the spirit with which it's intended.. :)

Corns of the Big 12: Texas

I follow the inbound links to some of these posts to each team's message boards. Wow. Those guys who post on the message boards sure take everything seriously. Ha!

Go Big Red Nebraska!
Corn Nation - Graduating more of our players than you are!

by cornnation on Aug 22, 2007 12:39 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

That's sorta mean

but I wholeheartedly concur with your description of Oklahoma. I'd quote it here but it's better if everyone just goes to Corn Nation and reads it for themselves.

So take that.

by Kahuna on Aug 22, 2007 8:18 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Good Stuff

Funny stuff, people who get worked up over a joke have a problem.

by Wells on Aug 22, 2007 12:23 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I could care less...

... what kind of corn we are, as long as I can quit wondering what you were going to put up there. Now you better not make me wait for the Aggies.

With success come expectations!

"So, the A and the M are just there so you aren't TU?"

by Horn Brain on Aug 23, 2007 9:59 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Hmmm...

Bammer at 15? Discuss.

Just so it's clear that I'm not above criticism, mock away.

by Big Jon on Aug 21, 2007 4:59 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Not Much Rammer Jammer

I would switch Auburn with Alabama in the poll at 15. Bama's offense will be very good, especially with Major there as OC, but there's no defensive depth at all. They will have to win shootouts, and that style don't fly in the SEC.

I think Auburn's going to be a real sleeper this year, in spite of their brutal road schedule. They've got good depth on defense and in the offensive backfield and a senior quarterback who's getting a bad rap because he could barely walk due to injury through the last half of the '06 season. Their big weakness? Offensive line experience, or lack thereof.

by beast in bama on Aug 21, 2007 5:51 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Jeff Tedford is...

easily one of the Top-10 active coaches. Especially if you exclude the 2 elder statesmen - Paterno & Bowden. Tedford took over a (1-10) Cal team that was 11 years removed from their last winning season! There was no whining about a lack of talent or an appeal for time to re-build. He just went out and coached 5 consecutive winning seasons! Given the starting point, Tedford's (43-20) record is darn near phenomenal.

Cal's last 3 seasons have ended with the team ranked in the AP Top-25. In 2004 they were #9, #25 in in 2005 and then #14 in 2006. Given their identical (10-3) record and the fact they totally dominated (45-10) an A&M team that beat us in our own stadium, I can't for the life of me understand how they finished the season behind our Horns.

DeSean Jackson is as fine a WR/Return Specialist as you'll find anywhere in the country. Heck, he's only scored 21 TD's in his 24 career games! He is a Rivals' 1st team AA and Alex Mack(C) is a 2nd team AA.

Nate Longshore threw for over 3,000 yards last season and Forsett is a darn good replacement for M.Lynch who ran for over 1,300 yards last season. The O-Line is made up of 3 Jr's and 2 Sr's. Tedford's offense almost always scores in excess of 400 points (fell 5 short in '05) and I look for more of the same this season.

They shouldn't lose any more than 3 games and USC is their sole highly probable loss. You have to rank them #15, or higher.

--- All roads to the Big-XII Championships run through OU and the RRS. It's not just "another game." ---

by HornChamps on Aug 22, 2007 12:49 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

this is all pointless

if you think teams should be ranked based on their resumes, then this is the stupidest exercise imaginable. i'm of course not blaming you, peter. you're a member of the blogpoll and you're just fulfilling your duties.

but if the blogpoll really wants to be something that strives to be a true barometer of how teams actually should be ranked, it should take the lead in not producing a poll until conference play starts. it's ludicrous to rank teams based on how easy their schedules are. a ranking shouldn't be a prediction, it should be based on data.

and for all the talk of how a playoff would incentivize teams to schedule tougher OOC games, i tend to think that just delaying the first poll until conference play starts would be a much more practical way of incentivizing tough OOC games. and you wouldn't have to change the entire post-season system just to do that. a team like Texas has very little incentive to schedule tough OOC games because it is ranked so high in the pre-season poll every year (based on nothing but speculation). you don't have to do anything to move up other than wait for people to lose ahead of you. if the first rankings don't come out until october -- based on the actual data of the OOC games -- there's an incentive to have played and beaten a good team by the time those rankings come out so that you can be ranked very high initially.

the blogpoll should be an early adopter of this, i believe. perhaps next year.

[also: greetings from Hanoi, Vietnam! I'll be back in the states and posting regularly again in the next few days. i'm certain that you all missed me terribly.]

by billyzane on Aug 22, 2007 4:35 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

give me a break on this

crap about not producing a poll until conference plan starts.

You want to base it on data. I see guys mention this on other blogs as well. Specifically what data should it be based on? Seriously, what data? What data?

And what is the f'in deal with you people who want to make everything based upon on analysis? Just suck the fun right out it why don't you?

You lay out exactly what data a "true barometer" of a poll will use and how it will work, post the results and we'll see how it does. There is nothing stopping you from doing this. Nothing.

Go Big Red Nebraska!
Corn Nation - Graduating more of our players than you are!

by cornnation on Aug 22, 2007 8:18 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Interesting...

Not including Nebraska in the top 25. Wow. I am willing to say NU is better than at least 5 teams on your inaugural list, includng Missouri at 16. I guess we'll find out how that goes in October. Hawaii in the top 10? Not even sure what to say there...

by Big Red Darren on Aug 22, 2007 12:24 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs