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Texas Longhorns Report Card: Offense vs UCF

Onward with the offense...

Quarterback

The good? Colt hit 32 of 47 passes. That ain't half bad.

The bad? He only had 259 yards. That's about 8 yards a completion, which is... not good. And gets at the crux of the problem right now. We've got no vertical passing game because teams are sitting two safeties deep. And why are they sitting two safeties deep? Because there's no need to bring anyone up for run support.

We've hit a crossroads of sorts with McCoy. Greg Davis and Colt McCoy were able to surprise people a little bit last season as teams dared the redshirt freshman to beat them. Now? Teams have figured out that our running game is manageable without safety help, that there's no penalty for dropping two safeties into coverage, and that giving the Longhorns the underneath stuff isn't terribly painful. Certainly not when we can't execute in the red zone.

So where do we go from here? It's a tough question, really. Either McCoy has to be asked to provide a credible running threat or we need to consider moving McCoy under center and revamping the offensive system altogether. This hybrid, which worked pretty well last year when teams weren't keyed on taking away our vertical passing game, has run its course. Something has to give.

McCoy himself is trapped a little bit here. The system itself will need to evolve or McCoy's going to be facing an uphill battle most of the season. If Greg Davis' biggest critics ever had a year to point and yell, "SEE!", so far- this is it. Davis will have to make some fundamental adjustments (and soon) to successfully quell those concerns.

How to grade McCoy, then? He was merely solid. Neither great nor bad. That, of course, won't win any championships. Let's just hope, for now, that Davis gives McCoy a better opportunity to succeed.

GRADE: B-

Running Back

My goodness Jamaal Charles is good. He's running with an intensity and purpose that's simply blown my mind this year. Unfortunately, he put the ball on the ground twice on Saturday. For now, let's just note that he picked up 7 yards per carry because he's breaking 3-4 big runs a game this year. To this point, he's the team MVP.

Those who want to see Ogbonnaya carry the ball more, let me just note that he's got to be used situationally. Chris is a good bit bigger than I remember him being a year ago (could just be bad memory on my part) and is useful more in a blocking, H-back type role.

There's simply nothing to dislike about this unit right now, especially if those fumbles were an aberration. They catch passes, they run well, they block well. This ain't the problem.

GRADE: B

Wide Receivers

Somehow, Quan Cosby caught 10 footballs for 67 yards. That's pretty tough to do, boys and girls, and is a reflection of just how silly our offensive scheming has become. Anyone who's read this site since the beginning knows that I hate to be excessively negative, but there's just not much good stuff to pin up on the bulletin board right now.

This receiving corps - even short-manned - is outstanding. But we're just dinking and dunking our way down the field, scaring nobody (except our own fans). The passing game can't get vertical because the safeties don't have to help with the run. The run can't get going because we're running out of the shotgun with a quarterback who doesn't count as a threat to keep the ball. What's left? Bubble screens. Quick throws to the wide receivers. It is a poor man's version of the Texas Tech spread attack.

Once again, this ain't a personnel or performance problem.

GRADE: B+

Offensive Line

Let's face it: we knew this was a huge question mark heading into the year, and we've not seen anything yet to make us feel better. Central Florida's best unit was its mammoth defensive line, and it showed. Dallas Griffin was swallowed whole on more than a couple plays. Charlie Tanner is not an answer at guard. Tony Hills does well with pass protection, but has never blocked well in the running game. Chris Hall at tackle is a band aid. Only Cedric Dockery represents the burnt orange and white in a way that we're used to seeing from our linemen.

So... now what?

I have no idea. True freshmen are very rarely the answer on the offensive line. It's looking like a patchwork unit from here on out. And it may not be fair to call this a quesiton mark any more. I think filing it as a team weakness is more appropriate. The only real question is: when Texas loses, will the coaches just start developing the real horses?

GRADE: C-

Offensive Coaching

Honestly, I think I've covered most of this already. Davis has some real work to do, and though the offense is a far cry from "broken," we're not yet at a point where we can expect this unit to win us games against elite competition. And that, of course, is the only goal.

So let's just leave it at that and hope, pray, and beg for Davis to use the final out of conference scrimmage as a chance to rethink how he wants to score points with these players.

GRADE: D

--PB--

0 recs  |  Comment 23 comments

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Don't forget though...

The 8 yards/comp isn't good, but Sweed was hurt and then left. Pittman was out the whole game too. Also, we did go long with Sweed that one time but it was ruled incomplete.

We ABSOLUTELY have to blow out Rice by halftime so Chiles can play in the 2nd half or at least 4th quarter. With more play makers healthy for the game, we should put up 50+.

VY : Football :: KD : Basketball

by goingforthecorner on Sep 17, 2007 8:53 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Quan covered Sweed's spot well

and Shipley came up with some nice catches, and a great pattern on the out-and-up. So, I don't think the loss of Sweed made that much difference.

And I'd nearly bet if anyone back-up QB plays, it's Sherrod. It's just mindless that they haven't played Chiles, unless they feel he is so unprepared or the the O-line just can't give him the protection.

On a personal speculation, I thought that late in the first quarter, early in the second quarter when we jumped on ASU early would have been an excellent time to insert him for a series. I thought the whole crowd was ready for that, the bench was ready. Just a feeling then, but it didn't happen and the game shifted.

It always bothers me when teams abruptly stop playing well together.

by whills on Sep 17, 2007 9:22 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

charles is OK not GREAT

chris ogbannaya should be splitting carries with jamaal. chris is more consistent and I believe is a better pass catcher than jamaal.

take dead aim

by ryanut03 on Sep 17, 2007 9:09 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

When the coaches got together

to create the grand unified strategy, it's looking more and more like they got knots, big lumps and bad headaches.

The lack of a deep passing attack and no running game were complaints from last season which have carried over in spades. Hate to see that, but it's high on your list and should be.

We do have talented and competitive receivers with great speed, but we seldom throw it down there and let the talent go for it. How many shots should we be taking a game:

  •  less than four,
  •  at least four to eight (one or two per quarter for an average), or
  •  more than eight.

Fixing the running game calls for a whole reconfiguration; either go all-in with the spread (ala Tech) or find something that works (and this far into the season, it's probably the I and pro-sets).

And maybe it can't be fixed. That's not necessarily pessimism; I just don't think the coaches have a clear mind on the subject. They're deeply invested in the current offense and can't pull back to get the critical overall attention. That's why a loss often is the grounds for change, for the bitter truth is exposed.

You'd think the end of last season would have done it, but Colt's injury perhaps made them keep their hands and stay in the pot instead of throwing it all in and reshuffling.

by whills on Sep 17, 2007 9:10 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

It is almost as if you say...

Greg Davis sucks, but you refuse to actually utter the words Greg Davis sucks. Don't pussyfoot around the issue. No one here will like you less for it. You're so insightful, but sometimes when I read your AWESOME insight, it's like you're being too careful not to say what you REALLY want to say. The scheme isn't working. Honestly it never worked. It didn't work for VY when he was here, which is why they just had to "turn him loose" his junior year. Greg Davis (or mack brown maybe) deserve to give the players a chance to win, and the last three weeks, he simply has not done so. I know that we have issues all around the field. Trust me I know. But I expected the defense to struggle with palmer griffin and foster. Just not the offense. Anyway, we have just got to be better

by saveadre on Sep 17, 2007 9:14 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Ha

Nicely said, sir.

Honestly, though? I'm not scared to say Davis sucks. I'm just not ready to make the leap yet. I've noted before that I think he adjusts better than people give him credit for.

Today's post, though? Clearly notes how desperately we need to make some fundamental changes. Consider Davis "on notice" in my book.

--PB--

by Peter Bean on Sep 17, 2007 9:49 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Greg Davis

I know you're in South Bend now, but have heard any of the stuff Chip Brown has said about Mack and Greg?  He's talked about how he feels that Greg Davis is an inventive play-caller and offensive mind and that Mack stifles him with his conservative nature.  I'd be interested to hear your take on that.

by hornbone on Sep 17, 2007 11:06 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I've commented on this before

I'll have to dig for the link tomorrow.

I talked to Chip about this for an extended amount of time, and I believe him. Greg does Mack's bidding.

--PB--

by Peter Bean on Sep 17, 2007 11:13 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

ah

I must have missed that.  I really, really dig Chip's show in the afternoon.  They've got interesting theories and good analysis, even if their predictions don't always come true.

I just think it would be fascinating if Greg Davis was thinking all the things that we've posted online and just can't say it because he's doing what Mack wants him to do.  The reality is probably a combination of fault for Greg and Mack.

by hornbone on Sep 17, 2007 11:24 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Mack Don't Know

I commented about this in another thread.

If you don't know, Mack, maybe Greg does? Let go of the choke collar and let him give it a try, without your interference. Say, against Rice, where it doesn't really matter if he gets it wrong.

Locked in London, Longing for Longhorns

by patienthornsfan on Sep 18, 2007 1:48 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

yeah

but you should be able to score 52 on Rice even with 4 yard outs

by the other Andrew on Sep 18, 2007 8:54 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

The spread offense...

has run its course as our offensive centerpiece, I think.  Going to it when Vince was here was smart and GD should get credit for that.  It perfectly fit VY's skill set and allowed him to blossom.  Colt is not ideally suited for it since he isn't a real credible running threat.  He obviously had a lot of success in it last year, but if, as PB points out, teams are going to be taking away the deep ball, that changes the dynamic.  I believe GD needs to switch back to running more traditional pro and I sets like we ran pre-Vince.  Now can we dramatically switch streams mid-season?  That may be the $64k question.

by SaintBevo on Sep 17, 2007 9:53 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Greg Davis according to PB

F, C+, and D so far this year.  Awesome!

by JohnsonUT on Sep 17, 2007 11:10 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Not necessarily GD

But rather, Offensive Coaching has received these miserable grades.  The truth of who's fault it is (Mack, Greg, combo) lies in the discussion above.

I vote for PHF's suggestion.  Mack should take off the headset for the Rice game, and let GD get all jacked up on Mountain Dew.  Rice is a great institution, but the fact is the Horns should be able win even if the players were making all the coaching decisions.  There's really nothing to lose by cutting the reigns this Saturday.

by Shake on Sep 18, 2007 7:56 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

You could have said the same thing about...

Arkansas and Central Florida.  "With our athletes, it doesn't matter who calls the plays."  I think we have learned that is not the truth in today's college football environment.  It's nice to have the horses, but if you don't know what to do with them (like Michigan), it won't matter.  We can't look past Rice.  We almost lost to Arkansas State and UCF.  

by the1austin on Sep 18, 2007 12:16 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Exactly

Which is why they should at least try PHF's suggested change for the Rice game.

Obviously, the status quo does not put us in a position to dominate these teams.

by Shake on Sep 18, 2007 12:36 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Concur.

I completely agree we need to change it up.  Our offense is the most boring of any top 15 team.  I'm just saying that we shouldn't start thinking Rice is below us.  The last 7 or 8 years we could assume that our second team would handle Rice by 56, but this years team has not given us that luxury to assert.

by the1austin on Sep 18, 2007 3:08 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

the consistency problem.

If you look at the play by play review of the game,

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/foo...

you see a pattern. In every drive that ends in a field goal or punt in the last series of downs of that drive there is one run play that gets less than two yards (and the majority are 0 or 1 yards).
In a game where the horns had 15 real possessions, 9 ended with a punt or field goal (2 more fumbles, 1 int, 1 missed field goal and 2 td's). Those 9 were drives stopped short of a first down and each one in the last series of downs has a running play that gains no more than if you fell forward from the line of scrimmage.

JC carried the ball 22 times and 12 times got 2 yards of less. He rushed for 9 yards in those 12 attempts that's .75 yards per carry, of these 7 came in the last series before a punt or field goal so you could say that poor running significantly contributed to not picking up a first down for those drives. If you add the 2 fumbles that's 9 drives out of 15 that were stopped due to JC's play.

It's may not be all to do with JC's running, Ogbonnaya had 2 drive killing runs in 2 series but one of those ended with a JC fumble.
You got to spread the blame around to the poor coaching and the inconsistent line play. Overall I would say 3 or 4 long runs can't over come so many drive killing non gaining runs. And that can explain the weak rushing performance the horns have had last season and this one.  

The scary thought is what happens when you play like this against a higher quality opponent.  

xerxes

by Xerxes on Sep 18, 2007 9:50 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Good insight, X

But I think you're putting too much blame on the back for the short runs.  What is that quote?  "All backs look the same when you hit them in the backfield" or something.  Run blocking was atrocious at times.  Zero holes, and JC does a wonderful job of turning something into nothing.  On the TD, he ran through the designed hole and straight into the back of one (or two) of the linemen, then kind of slid left into the space where our guys were supposed to have blocked the D into, and broke free.  You can't fault JC for every bad run.  The blocking (scheme and execution) is generally terrible on those bad runs.  It constantly appears that we have linemen trying to block people across the field from them.  I'll take the jewel-encrusted mediocrity that we have now, over letting Ogbonnaya slam into a solid wall of orange and white for 2 yards per.  I love Oggy, too, but he needs a hole to run through to blast the secondary off the ball.

"So, the A and the M are just there so you aren't TU?"

by Horn Brain on Sep 18, 2007 12:17 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I go back and forth

about JC, it just seems on a lot of runs he gets stopped to easy. He not one of the those runners who is always driving forward dragging defenders along with him.

The real problem is how many plays the offense runs that are non productive. Even if Colt is completing 60%-70% of his passes, drives will fizzle with so many  plays that produce no yards (there were 3-4 passes for less than 2 yards). It's hard to keep drives going and push the ball into the end zone.

I checked for the total # of plays gaining 2 yards or less and there were 22 of 90, 25% which means almost every series their looking at long yardage on 3rd down.

Going back to "Playing The Numbers Game: Predictors of Success in Texas Games, 2001-06"

1st downs and 3rd down efficiency were 4 and 5 from the top as the best predictors of success. And at number 1 was "Net Rush Offense".
So strong consistent run offense means winning games.

I was curious about other teams 3rd down efficiency for their last games so,
LSU  67%
W. Virginia  55%
USC  50%
Texas 45%
Florida 42%
Oklahoma 33%

Either OU made lots of 1st downs on 2nd down or scores on long gainers to put up so many points and yards.
 

xerxes

by Xerxes on Sep 18, 2007 5:12 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

hey, a shout out!

i'm glad that was of some help.  the problem with "net rush offense" is (as i tried to explain in the column) that i'm not sure it's actually a cause of success.  i think it may actually be a symptom of success (i.e. teams that are ahead in the game run more often and thus accumulate more yards).  

also, if you look at last week's column, i don't think net rush yards is a very good indicator of efficiency of the rushing attack.  but i like what you're doing with # of plays that gained 2 yards or less.  there's something there.

by billyzane on Sep 19, 2007 10:50 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'm thinking the same thing about....

cause and effect, you can't really tell.

But taken with the others groups at the top of your list it shows consistent offense is correlated with teams that win.

It looks like OU has a strong offense but has a hard time picking up 1st downs on 3rd down so there is something at work there. They have either had long plays that score or make alot of 1st downs on downs other than 3rd. If it's the first reason UT may have a better chance stopping OU than we think, if they can prevent long gainers.

The problem with the Horns seems to go back to last season, not being able to score from short yardage or just pick up short yardage running in general. It shows up in all those plays with little or no gain.  
Is it the runners? Is it the plays? the formations? the overall scheme? How can you tease those things apart?

If it weren't for Colt McCoy completing such a good percentage of his passes this team would be hurting.

xerxes

by Xerxes on Sep 19, 2007 3:58 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

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