BlogPoll Roundtable 3.2: Storylines Emerge

by Peter Bean on Sep 17, 2007 9:33 AM CDT in Texas Longhorns Football

Brian asked me to lead this week's BlogPoll roundtable. We use these questions as an opportunity to learn more about the teams our colleagues follow most closely. Bloggers: please include a link to your answers in the comments section below. A roundup of some of the most enlightening answers will be provided in this space on Friday.

1. Handicap your team's chances to win your conference championship. If your team is not the favorite, who is?

(Notre Dame bloggers, please use the following variation on the above: the over/under on wins in your next five games is being set at 1.5. Can you make a good case for the over? (Next five: vs Michigan State, at Purdue, at UCLA, vs Boston College, vs USC)

Oklahoma has to be considered the favorite, followed closely by the Nebraska-Missouri winner (if for no other reason than the North has to send someone to a winner-take-all conference championship game).

For Texas, everything hinges on the Oklahoma game, though you could point to last season and note that even that, at times, is not enough. If we guess that (using only what we've seen from both teams so far):

A) Texas only beats Oklahoma 3 times out of 10 (.3)
B) If Texas beats Oklahoma, it wins the Big 12 South 4 times out of 5 (.8)
C) If Oklahoma beats Texas, it wins the Big 12 South 9 times out of 10 (.9)

Texas then has a [(.3) x (.8)] + [(.7) x (.1)] = .31

Based just on what we've seen so far, Texas has about a 30% chance of making the conference championship game. If we're optimistic and say Texas defeats the North Division winner 7 times out of 10, we get a final of (.31) x (.7) = .217

Roughly a 20% chance of a Big 12 championship.

2. Outline the (realistic) best case and worst case scenarios for your team.

Best Case: The Longhorns get a big push from young talent and work out the kinks in the scheming (both sides of the ball). Texas beats Oklahoma and gets rolling. It's not unfathomable that this team could win the remainder of its games. It doesn't look like a team that could win the BCS Title, even if it were to right the wrongs and get by OU. A more realistic best case scenario is an 11-1 season with a trip to the Fiesta Bowl.

Worst Case: Kansas State catches lightning in a bottle, drops Texas in Austin, as the wheels come off. Loss to Oklahoma is right now probable. Games against teams like A&M, Nebraska, and even Texas Tech (or Oklahoma State on the road) could break to the bad guys. Texas could finish 8-4.

3. We're only three games in to the season, but teams and storylines are starting to take shape. Compare your team to a character or theme from a fable or children's tale.

Right now, Texas looks to me like a little piggy who's building his house out of straw, refusing - for whatever reason - to use the bricks lying around. The Big Bad Wolf, Oklahoma, is about to come huffing and puffing, and damnit, this house is going to crumble in the worst way if there's not a switch to something sturdier. See below for some bricks this team could use.

4. Imagine you're the coach of your team. Give three specific changes you'd implement immediately which you think would have the biggest impact on improving the team.

The bricks:

Bench Bobino and Killebrew; insert Norton and Muckelroy. This is simple, this is easy. This would improve the team immediately.

Use John Chiles as an offensive weapon. Not only is it suicidal to have no backup quarterback with any experience, but in this case, the backup in question might just provide some offensive spark that this team needs. Even if the rainy day never arrives, the kid might just help out anyway. What are we waiting for?

Fix the blitzing patterns, which have become discombobulated. Part of this is tied to our sorry linebacking play, but sending in Bobino on these kamikaze blitzes is not working well. Not only is he blitzing himself out of far too many plays, but there's not been sufficient protection for the vulnerabilities exposed by a blitzing MLB. This is a simple fix that we need to see soon.

5. USC, LSU/Florida, and Oklahoma have established themselves as the frontrunners in the early going. Which other team or teams are you eyeballing as potential BCS party crashers?

Could the Big East send an undefeated team through this year? Probably not, were two of the above three also to run the table. I also think the shaky start by the Big 10, in conjunction with last year's Ohio State/Michigan bowl meltdown, probably precludes the voters sending an undefeated Penn State, Ohio State, or Wisconsin to the big game unless there's only one other (or no) undefeated teams elsewhere.

--PB--

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Answers..

If Texas does not make it to the BCS title game, I'll assume that it's because of a loss to OU. I would like OU to make it to the title game so the big 12 gains respect and then lose to LSU because they are land thieves.

Best case, we find an offensive identity against Rice and Kansas State and beat OU and cruise for the rest of the season into title game. Worst case, we have another very close call against Kansas state and lose to OU and Nebraska handily, fall out of BCS altogether.

Could be much worse but I don't want to indulge in that

our offense is cinderella searching for her damn glass slipper (offensive identity).

Not in any order;

A. Bench Brandon Foster and Ryan Palmer to form some kind of rotation between Chykie Brown, Curtis Brown, Ben Wells, Deon Beasley and Earl Thomas.
B. Bench Robert Killebrew, Scott Derrry and Rashad Bobino for Muck, Kindle and Norton. Although Bobino would be allowed a few snaps every now and then.
C. Create a separate playbook package for John Chiles or Sherrod Harris..WHOEVER OUR BACKUP IS! similar to that of last year's Tim Tebow.
D. Start Eddie Jones and rotate Lamarr Houston and Sam Acho at DE until Orakpo returns.

I don't think theres much potential for any kind of BCS Crasher unless Hawaii goes undefeated which is unlikely.

by mvplonghorns on Sep 17, 2007 10:48 AM CDT reply actions

BCS Crashers

Assuming that you have to go undefeated, there are only three teams left:
Hawaii - They have the best chance, but I think even if they make it to Washington undefeated, the pressure will be too much to pull out that win.
Air Force - Beat TCU and are starting to get votes in the top 25 polls. Even if they go undefeated, they will not have a victory over a top 25 team.
Tulsa - OU next week, if they pull the upset, then we can start talking about them. That is a really big if.

by Wells on Sep 17, 2007 11:05 AM CDT up reply actions

Air Force

I have seen some people start to talk about Air Force lately, and it surprised me at first. But when you think about the fact that they have beated TCU and Utah (who just crushed UCLA), I think they might have their toughest games behind them.

by Texas Wahoo on Sep 17, 2007 1:23 PM CDT up reply actions

re: 4b

You don't have the OL personnel (depth or player-wise) to install an offensive package for Chiles similar to what Florida did for Tebow.

by Beergut on Sep 17, 2007 3:31 PM CDT up reply actions

take

I would put our odds at around 5-1 for winning the big 12. OU's are probably 3-2 at this point.

Best case, 11-1 (loss to OU or A&M) and a trip to the Fiesta Bowl. Worst case, 8-4 (loss to OU, A&M, OSU, and Nebraska or KSU) and a trip to the Alamo Bowl or Citrus Bowl.

Sleeping Beauty. Texas could have a great team this year if our guys would just wake the %$@# up! Quit hitting guys late. Quit over/under throwing receivers. Quit carrying the football like its a hot potato. Quit dancing, and hit the friggin hole.

a) Give Ogbonnaya 10-15 carries/game and make him the red zone back. b) Start Kindle, Norton, and Muckelroy at LB. c) find 5 offensive linemen that can create holes and protect McCoy

Florida and Cal are the only teams that could squeak into the top 3. Florida by virtue of 2 meetings w/ LSU (one on a nuetral SEC championship field). And Cal with head-to-head matchup with SC. No one will squeak into the top 3 unless they knock one of these three teams off.

by BMG on Sep 17, 2007 11:18 AM CDT reply actions

Why?

Just curious, does anybody have any real insight/ideas into why we are not switching our current starting linebacks for the likes of Muck and Norton. I know why Kindle hasn't been in. Is this an "experience" issue--just seems odd. Between not switching out our current starters at lineback and corners for the younger talent, we seem to be on the verge of "defensive suicide". I am starting to think that it is going to take a loss before we see these changes made--some learn the easy way, some the hard way and I think we are on the trail to "the hard-way".

by EyesOTexas on Sep 17, 2007 12:33 PM CDT reply actions

Young guys

It seems that Mack has a history of not playing young guys until after the first loss. Maybe that is why we always bounce back after an OU loss. We lose and then the next week, the younger guys actually get a chance to prove they are the better option.

by JohnsonUT on Sep 17, 2007 12:45 PM CDT up reply actions

Mack's PC today

seems to indicate they will begin rotating. I assume this means the starters are no longer "starters". Who knows if that actually happens.

I love the energy and enthusiasm Derry, Bobino and Kill bring to the field -- but that is where it ends for those guys. They are either overthinking things, having brain lock or they just don't have the athleticism to play this defense. I lost count of the overpusuits Saturday afternoon.

Again, I feel for all three -- because I truly think they are giving it their all. But leaving Muck, Norton, Kindle (when back) and Robinson on the bench so much is just stupid.

Cats and dogs sleeping together.

by EYESofBEVO on Sep 17, 2007 12:59 PM CDT up reply actions

I'm holding my comments

until Texas plays a REAL team. Not to say TCU was terrible, but they just aren't as good as Kansas State or Nebraska or OSU. I will not think bad or good til I see Texas play a decent team.

41-38

by inVINCEable on Sep 17, 2007 12:40 PM CDT reply actions

TCU

I maintain that they are better than KSU and perhaps OSU. While none of those teams has looked very good thus-far, OSU has shown me absolutely nothing.

by Texas Wahoo on Sep 17, 2007 1:25 PM CDT up reply actions

Worst case.....

....If the Rice game doesn't go like it has the past 3 years (Texas scoring 40+ points) and it is a close game, Kansas State will beat us at home, Oklahoma will crush us with another 60+ point game, 2 more Texas players will be arrested before the end of the season, and Texas will be lucky to finish 7-5.

If Texas can start showing up and playing 4 quarters of competitive football, I will be satisfied win or lose. It's the embarassing 7-12 losses where we play like crap that kill me.

Best Case:
Texas A&M beats Miami Thursday night by 3 touchdowns showing everyone that Oklahoma has yet to play a real opponent. Mack Brown stops sand-bagging and Texas averages 50 points per game the rest of the season. Cameras find the same little boy crying at the Cotton Bowl when Texas puts 63 on the board against OU. USC loses to Cal and one other suprise loss. Texas meets LSU in the Sugar Bowl for the BCS National Championship, wins, Tiger fans riot and burn NOLA to the ground. Sam Bradford is dismissed from OU for his involvement in another scandal, violating OU's probabtion and the Sooner's football program goes the way of the SMU ponies. (No one said it had to be realistic).

"You don't score 42 points against Kansas State and just lose."

by 16thLonghorn on Sep 17, 2007 12:52 PM CDT reply actions

You forgot

Les Miles getting fired and Periloux getting bashed all over the field.

by JohnsonUT on Sep 17, 2007 4:10 PM CDT up reply actions

Completely dismissing Florida?

They should be in the discussion with OU, USC, and LSU.

by the1austin on Sep 17, 2007 1:08 PM CDT reply actions

Oversight

They should be in there

--PB--

by Peter Bean on Sep 17, 2007 1:14 PM CDT up reply actions

Tortoise and the Hare

We're the Hare, plain and simple.

We're faster, stronger, more athletic, and should win very easily. Instead we lose focus, jerk around a whole lot, and let the tortoise back in the race.

by BrooklynHorn on Sep 17, 2007 1:36 PM CDT reply actions

the hare has talent

Y'all lack it in critical positions.

by Beergut on Sep 17, 2007 3:34 PM CDT up reply actions

I read your other comments about the o-line.

Would love to hear more about that in depth. Are you up for a diary?

The general consensus in football is that when the offense isn't ginning, the usual suspect is the O-line. Then the QB. Then the backs and WRs.

With the youth and inexperience and now some shuffling, the O-line draws the black bean by default. They take the longest to train and then must become cohesive within themselves to maximize their effectiveness over four quarters. Three games is really not much in the progression.

by whills on Sep 17, 2007 7:56 PM CDT up reply actions

Jevan Snead.....

....starting getting happy feet after the 5th game. Will John Chiles allow Mack to waste more of his games? Chiles has made it incredibly clear he wants to play QB and he wants to play this season.

--- All roads to the Big-XII Championships run through OU and the RRS. It's not just "another game." ---

by HornChamps on Sep 17, 2007 4:08 PM CDT reply actions

i think they intended

to get chiles in all 3 of these games, but the general inability to put anyone away led them to keep mccoy in the game longer than they wanted. It's hard to get a true freshman qb some snaps when you can barely hold on to a lead in the 4th quarter.

by billyzane on Sep 17, 2007 5:21 PM CDT up reply actions

Just a thought

Sherrod could be close to being ready to play, and maybe Chiles needs more time before he is ready. The coaches might just be trying to keep the redshirt possible for Chiles if we can make it until Sherrod is healthy again. Just a thought

by R00T4UT on Sep 17, 2007 6:51 PM CDT up reply actions

I think you are close to the real case.

They could have gotten Chiles in if they wanted; they didn't want to, didn't want to take the redshirt off.

They are gambling that Sherrod would make it back.

One of the elemental things about this team is that there hasn't been much playing time for the subs compared to the last few years with the blow outs. That short time on the field usually inspires the underclassmen, makes practices better and more enthusiastic and means to them they have a chance at the big show. But not this year; a big class of bench warmers. And for those many illustrious Friday night heroes that is sometimes hard to take. Even a minute on the field in the big house is manna from heaven.

Makes me wonder what those subs are feeling right now.

by whills on Sep 17, 2007 7:40 PM CDT up reply actions

BZ...

...I believe ROOT and whills to be completely accurate. However, it will turn to a dangerous game of Russian Roulette if this staff is not being 100% completely truthful with Chiles. If they are slow-playing him, like they did J.Snead, then he's not stupid enough to not recognize the pattern. I just hope they are being completely above board with this situation. A staff can hope for a RS season all they want, but that doesn't mean the player has to be on board with the idea.

--- All roads to the Big-XII Championships run through OU and the RRS. It's not just "another game." ---

by HornChamps on Sep 17, 2007 11:10 PM CDT up reply actions