Under The Hood: Texas A&M at Miami
by Peter Bean on Sep 20, 2007 10:08 AM CDT
in Football
23 comments
It’s time to bring back the Under The Hood series, in which we take a closer look at the numbers behind some of the week’s biggest games. With only three weeks of football played, this data doesn’t tell us too much – the sample size is just so small. Still, it’s a nice snapshot of each team’s early season performance. These will provide more insight as the season goes on.
Our first guinea pigs for the ’07 season are Texas A&M and Miami, who meet tonight in the Orange Bowl. First, the charts, then a little commentary.
Texas A&M margin of victory: 24.3 points
Miami margin of victory: 1.3
Texas A&M's opponents have a combined record of: 2-5
Miami's opponets have a combined record of: 3-6
As another rough guide, Jeff Sagarin lists Texas A&M’s strength of schedule as 140th in the country and Miami’s as 104th. Sagarin rates 243 teams for his football ratings.
How are these two teams performing statistically? Below are tables of each team's season totals, with national rank in parentheses.
| Rush YPG | Rush YPC | Rush TD | Pass YPG | Pass YPA | Pass TD | QB Rating | Total Offense | Scoring Offense |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 296.3 (5) | 6.35 (6) | 14 (2) | 148.3 (107) | 5.4 (107) | 3 (91) | 107.7 (96) | 444.7 (32) | 46.3 (12) |
| Rush YPG | Rush YPC | Rush TD | Pass YPG | Pass YPA | Pass TD | QB Rating | Total Offense | Scoring Offense |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 172 (47) | 4.49 (43) | 4 (64) | 130.7 (113) | 6.1 (89) | 3 (92) | 104.4 (101) | 302.7 (99) | 22.3 (83) |
| Rush YPG | Rush YPC | Rush TD | Pass YPG | Pass YPA | Pass TD | QB Rating | Total Defense | Scoring Defense |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 151.0 (57) | 3.51 (49) | 5 (83) | 232.3 (70) | 6.6 (59) | 4 (67) | 118.6 (53) | 383.3 (75) | 22.0 (53) |
| Rush YPG | Rush YPC | Rush TD | Pass YPG | Pass YPA | Pass TD | QB Rating | Total Defense | Scoring Defense |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 108.7 (34) | 2.86 (34) | 0 (t1) | 194.3 (42) | 7.6 (89) | 7 (100) | 139.1 (87) | 303.0 (26) | 21.0 (47) |
All stats via CFB Stats
Charts? Charts!
So what can we draw from all this?
*It should be noted again that we can’t glean too much from this. A&M’s played two awful opponents, and one decent one. Miami’s wiped up two bad teams, and been hosed by a great one. Really, we find out about these teams tonight.
*Miami’s passing defense was positively shredded by Sam Bradford (22-28, 295 yards, 6 TDs), but the run defense performed pretty solidly against OU (2.85 YPA). This is a classic "something’s gotta give" matchup, as A&M brings their bulldozing rush attack against one of the better run-stopping units in the country. You think Randy Shannon will be trying to force Stephen McGee to win this game with his arm? I certainly do.
*On the flipside, Texas A&M would probably like Kyle Wright to have to beat A&M. The Aggies don’t have a tremendously athletic defense, and I’d expect them to spend as much capital as they dare trying to keep Miami from establishing a consistent running game. For both teams then, it’s a game of making the opposing quarterback try to play Division 1 football.
*Should we expect a low-scoring slugfest, then? I’d guess so. This looks like a made-to-order game of extreme rushing, ball control, and battle for field position. First to 13 wins! (Seriously, that might do it.)
*But hey – it’s football on a Thursday night. I can dig it.
--PB--
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take A&M +2 & under
Miami cannot score enough to keep this game out of reach for A&M's running attack. A&M will try to pound the ball and take time off the clock and wear the U down by the 4th. Unless we see defensive TDs, I expect A&M will cover (and win) and the game will be under the 45 pt total.
by BMG on Sep 20, 2007 10:32 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Who to root for?
On the one hand, a poor Miami performance would (if only slightly) assuage our belief that OU and its wonderchild Sam Bradford are rolling to the BCS Championship. Blowing out Utah State and North Texas is nice, but if Miami fails to show up (at home!) against a no-passing, weak D A&M team, maybe that OU signature win doesn't look so great after all. Furthermore, it would be a signature road win for the Big XII, which would be nice following a week where Texas and Baylor barely squeaked by its opponents, and Nebraska and OSU got absolutely demolished (and to a lesser extent, CU). Finally, a quality A&M win here would help Texas if we were to play and beat them during Thanksgiving.
On the other hand, I hate A&M and would love to see them lose every game the rest of the year.
It's a tough call.
by jc25 on Sep 20, 2007 11:36 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Ahhh, yes.
The classic struggle between conference camaraderie and the raw, unadulterated loathing of those who institutionalize the abuse of farm animals (a set that includes subsets of livestock and Aggie women).
This is a conflict of interests, as you pointed out, but the real question is: Is the outcome of the A&M v. Miami game more important than the welfare of the aforementioned farm animals? I say, no, it is not. (Since when was the last time an Aggie game counted for anything of its own merit?)
Therefore, we should choose to support the result that would most benefit the farm animals. Again, however, we are confronted with a dilemma: Will the Aggies be more inclined to abuse the animals out of celebratory drunkenness, or grieving inebriation? While this is not easily answered, it is a more concrete question, and therefore can be supported with data.
That is why I have (not actually) compiled and cross-referenced the rate of animal-related sexual misconduct violations in the Brian-College Station area with the Aggie win/loss records from the sports of football, basketball, and baseball over the past 15 years, judging subjectively that about 1992 was when people stopped making bad decisions simply because it was the 80's, which would muck-up the analysis.
The actual analysis was a bit boring (except for some of the arrest reports), so I will spare you and provide you with my results:
Over the past fifteen years, Aggies have shown an increasing tendency to be more violent after a loss, especially in the last few years, with a sharp jump in loss-related assaults beginning with the hiring of Coach Fran.
Conclusion: Root for the Aggies, for sheep's sake!
by Horn Brain on Sep 20, 2007 12:22 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Run D
Miami's run defense wasnt that good against OU, add back the 42 yards lost from the botched punt and the average ypc and total run yardage goes up significantly.
not a texas fan just giving my 2 cents
by Hooligan65 on Sep 20, 2007 12:22 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Miami...big
Miami wins this one easily. By the middle of the 2nd quarter, obesity, humidity, heat, empty oxygen tanks on the aggie bench, and an angry Golden Corral manager stop the A&M running game dead in its tracks. Super-Size-Me ain't ready for the causal factors in Miami.
by Horns4Ever on Sep 20, 2007 12:28 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
wish i could agree
but after seeing Wide Load Lane keep a full gas tank in the 3rd ot against Fresno on a hot humid texas day, I'd be more willing to say he and goodson will wear down Miami's D, not vice versa.
by BigTexBD on Sep 20, 2007 12:58 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
A&M
Runs wild on Miami, gaining in the polls after a win on a "solid Miami team". Thing is, Miami just isn't that good. the media forgets every now and then that this isn't the 90's anymore. Miami isn't a dynasty that SHOULD win every game.
My call, unfortunately, is:
Miami - 17
aTm - 31
by inVINCEable on Sep 20, 2007 5:44 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Horns represented!
Did anyone else catch the horns fan tailgating at the ESPN intro to the game? He was wearing a white horns shirt and gave the hook 'em sign.
by horndude on Sep 20, 2007 6:38 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Canes Look Great Early
Impressive 18 play 80 yard td drive. Canes' d-line looks to be too much for Aggies O-line in passing situations. McGee is inaccurate enough with time. If the U can keep making him, rush this could be a long game for the Aggies.
by awiggo on Sep 20, 2007 7:24 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
double reverse fake?
by nematode on Sep 20, 2007 7:35 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Is there anything
less reassuring than Coach Fran with a clipboard, a head set, and a frown?
by awiggo on Sep 20, 2007 7:58 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
he could be wearing a party hat
by the other Andrew on Sep 20, 2007 9:30 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Thank you so much for that...
Awesome...
by the1austin on Sep 20, 2007 9:50 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
this is one of the best things i've ever watched.
jorvorskie is even crying about it.
by nematode on Sep 20, 2007 7:59 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
One would almost suspect
from watching this game that the A&M players have masterminded a very clever mutiny.
Make Fran look as bad as possible, get a better coach.
by BrooklynHorn on Sep 20, 2007 8:02 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Wonder if Jorvorskie will put Horns Down....
After this one...
by the1austin on Sep 20, 2007 8:02 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Beergut was right.
A&M is terrible. They just went up against a team with no quarterback, a team with a first-year head coach, and a team that was embarrassed on national television two weeks ago.
And they got stomped. Thoroughly.
by BrooklynHorn on Sep 20, 2007 9:49 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Lane: "Nobody in the Country can stop us.."
Sportscenter just opened up by humiliating J Lane. Hilarious.
by the1austin on Sep 20, 2007 9:54 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
anybody watching the game?
How did Jerrod Johnson look? I saw that he threw a touchdown pass.
by hornbone on Sep 20, 2007 10:14 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Threw a garbage time TD
with 5 seconds left in the game. He scrambled around quite a bit and found Bennett behind the Miami secondary [who had pretty much quit at that point].
The td was clearly the product of laid-back defensive effort, but the scramble he made looked pretty good.
by BrooklynHorn on Sep 20, 2007 10:31 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Just got an email from Unreasonable Optimism
He was looking for a home. He'd been happy at TCU but suddenly he lost his invite. Then he found Coach Fran and not only he was happy, he was getting a little pudgy because there was so much to feast upon in the land of big eaters.
Coach Fran left him right high and dry right there on the Miami sidelines early in the third quarter. Luckily he had no mass and just willed himself anywhere, even the net.
He did get immediate invites, some from local A&M clubs, but their need dealt with getting rid of his former best bud. But they really didn't want him; hell, they had the buyout money from last year and a damn reasonable idea of what to do with it.
However, he was also being courted by The Other Quarterback fans, suddenly legion in number with key verbal injector Bennett.
He was inquiring about Texas and I told him to get fucked. That they can get better was about as reasonable as I was gonna get. I told him to check the alumni associations, but I really thought the The Other Qb people would be the most fun. Those folks will really climb out on a limb for ya.
He said he was going to slip over on Baylor's couch and think it over. He was always welcome there.
by whills on Sep 20, 2007 10:24 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
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