BlogPoll Draft Ballot, Week 4
by Peter Bean on Sep 24, 2007 9:05 AM CDT
in Football
24 comments
This week's BlogPoll draft ballot. As always, your commentary is welcome. This is a work in progress, with revisions considered through Tuesday. Please note that four weeks in to the season, we're still short on data. I try to weight a team's resume more heavily than my subjective opinions of the teams, but both are considered. At least for now.
Dropped Out: Penn State (#8), Texas A&M (#24), Texas Tech (#25).
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32. LSU A nice home win for the Tigers, who handled South Carolina without playing exceptionally well. The offense looks decidedly mortal to me, but the silly amount of talent on the roster makes them as dangerous as anyone to rip off an undefeated season.
3. Oklahoma Tulsa's bag of offensive tricks wasn't enough to slow down the Sooners, who have blown out everyone they've played. I think OU's secondary can be picked on to some degree, and Sam Bradford is playing over his head a bit right now, but this is a very good football team playing at an exceptionally high level right now.
4. Florida The team sputtered a bit on the road this week, but won anyway. This team has some growing left to do, but when they do hit peak performance? Duck.
5. West Virginia A blowout of East Carolina neither helps nor hurts the Mountaineers here. A huge Friday night showdown at South Florida looms. Finally, a real test.
6. California This game wasn't quite as close as the 45-27 final suggested. Cal led 31-10 by halftime, and though Arizona threw for 309 yards on the Golden Bears, they needed over 60 attempts to do it.
7. Texas Finally. Something to feel good about. Kansas State is next.
8. Ohio State Now that is how you beat down an inferior opponent. The Buckeyes absolutely smothered Northwestern 58-7 in Columbus.
9. Boston College The Eagles handled Army with relative ease and will snack on Massachusetts next week. The upcoming cupcakes, plus the weakness that is the ACC this year, could sink this resume in a hurry.
10. Clemson No problems for Clemson again this week as they easily handle NC State 42-20. Cullen Harper is giving the team exactly what it needs to complement that elite running game.
11. Kentucky A road win at Arkansas has the Cats at 4-0 and a frightening thought for every SEC contender. If you're wondering, Kentucky gets Florida Atlantic this week, then three straight at home: South Carolina, LSU, and Florida.
12. Oregon They didn't exactly obliterate Stanford, but that Michigan throttling is, in all likelihood, going to look better and better each week.
13. South Florida Quarterback Matt Groethe is a lot of fun to watch. He's one of those guys who's just crazy enough to be scary. Usually, that helps his team win. There will be times this season when it hurts the team. Show Me game upcoming Friday night with West Virginia..
14. Rutgers Not much on the resume just yet, but they've looked awfully good so far anyway.
15. Missouri It's a pitiful resume, and there is always Gary Pinkel to consider.... And the defense stills tinks.... And.... Okay, I still think Daniels-Temple-Coffman makes them dangerous.
16. Wisconsin They're creeping up my ballot by default, but I stick by my preseason proposition that this team isn't as good as most say.
17. Arizona State So far, so good for Erickson's boys, who improved dramatically in the second half to handle Oregon State. The Sun Devils visit Stanford next week and should improve to 5-0.
18. Michigan State Beating the Irish this season is nothing special, but Dantonio has this team playing well enough. Is it well enough to contend for the Big 10 title? I suspect not.
19. Cincinnati They're rolling along nicely right now, including a 40-14 rout of Marshall this past Saturday. They'll host San Diego State on Saturday before a tough road trip to New Jersey to take on Rutgers.
20. Georgia A tremendous win for the Bulldogs over Alabama in overtime gets them back on my ballot. Mark Richt remains one of the nation's best coaches.
21. Alabama And a tough loss for the Tide, who sputtered offensively under the lights. It wasn't Major Applewhite's best night as a coordinator.
22. Kansas They haven't defeated a single notable team. But they've slaughtered all the non-notables. That's more than most teams on this ballot can say.
23. Hawaii Colt Brennan doesn't play and they still drop 66 on the visitors. Of course, those visitors were Charleston Southern. The resume has very little room to improve.
24. South Carolina How weird is it seeing Spurrier's team play strong defense and struggle on offense?
25. Purdue How soon before the wheels come off? 'Cause you know they are...
--PB--
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Spoiler alert
Kentucky has Florida and LSU both at home. That could be interesting. Florida winning the SEC east is no longer a given.
Cincy and USF are another two that will send things topsy turvy. W Virginia is no longer a shoe-in for the BIG least.
OSU looked better, but against that NU defense anyone would. Plus NU was without the best player in the BIG 10, Tyrell Sutton.
Purdue is my mid-season pick to win the BIG 10 this year.
Cal and Oregon seem interchangable. Neither is relevant until one of them beats USC.
Mizzou will win the BIG 12 north without breaking a sweat. Nebraska's d-line is terrible.
by EYESofBEVO on Sep 24, 2007 10:11 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Cal and Oregon
"Cal and Oregon seem interchangable. Neither is relevant until one of them beats USC."
- There are certainly similarities, but just because they're undefeated teams in the Pac-10 doesn't make them the same team. For example, while Cal has built big leads early against a couple weak teams and then let them close the gap without losing the lead, Oregon actually trailed Stanford at the half on Saturday. On the other hand, there have probably been more "wow" moments from Oregon's offense. Etc, etc.
- A little too harsh an assessment, no? Sure, losing to USC might knock Cal or Oregon out of the national title hunt, but that's hardly the only prize out there. They're certainly relevant to filling out a blogpoll ballot that goes past #5. Michigan's win on Saturday makes Oregon seem fairly relevant regardless; a Tennessee win this coming Saturday could do the same for Cal. Beating USC has been a tall order for any team recently; more generally, beating the conference favorite is not a relevance requirement (e.g., Rutgers matters even before beating WVA, Florida matters even before beating LSU) for the teams picked to finish second or fourth.
- Even if you still think it's a toss-up between the two teams, you're still looking too far ahead on the calendar to sort out the mess. Cal visits Oregon in five days, probably with College GameDay along for the ride. A Cal win in Eugene should end any claims of interchangeability.
by Calfan on Sep 24, 2007 11:38 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
You're right
Saturday should answer this question of interchangeability.
by Speedway on Sep 24, 2007 12:08 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
For the record
I like both teams, alot. Both are fun to watch.
But I want someone to beat USC, because their Pac-10 dominance is annoying.
by EYESofBEVO on Sep 24, 2007 1:04 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
West Virginia Tests
Which do you think is a bigger test for WVU PB? At South Florida next week, or at Rutgers a month later? I'd have to say Rutgers, so I have them above USF in my poll.
by patienthornsfan on Sep 24, 2007 10:31 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
LSU over USC
PB,
Consider moving LSU up. Problems on offense, sure, but all opponents undefeated other than losses to LSU. South Carolina win looks even better after Georgia over Alabama. Look how many points Ball State put up on Nebraska. Sure, USC eased of a bit last week but how big does the win in Lincoln look?
by duras on Sep 24, 2007 12:03 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Florida
I'll watch their game with Florida most closely to determine their relative strength to USC and Oklahoma. And, of course, Florida.
Most of these teams at the top will have chances to prove their worthiness; I think the better question may arise with a team like West Virginia, which was counting on Louisville being a fellow Top 5-10 team. Now that game carries much less weight. Can they make up that ground with Rutgers/USF wins? It depends on how those teams perform the rest of the way, but they have a real problem if there are two other undefeated teams.
by Peter Bean on Sep 24, 2007 12:07 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
LSU on Resume
Obviously the Florida/LSU game will be of the gretest probative value but on a purely resume basis (and I know you're not doing it that way) LSU seems more formidable than USC at this point.
You're right about the problems evaluating down ballot. On this point we might consider the adventures of Auburn. However, if Auburn performs with even a de minimus modicum of respectability against Florida, LSU et. all it will tell us little about the value of the South Florida win b.c. AU will become a different team. In a similar way, a Horns win over OU will enable us to completely discard the preceeding lines on the resume but then, as you'll soon learn, res ipsa loquitor.
by duras on Sep 24, 2007 12:24 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Lookin good PB
Hard to argue with any of this due to (like you mentioned) lack of data to this point. At this point (and any point in the season really), the top 10-15 teams are the most important, and I think you have those nailed down pretty well. The data we need will start coming in bunches now that conference play is cranking up everywhere. Cal/Oregon this week could go along way in explaining who stands where as far as hierarchy within the Pac 10 and the rest of the country. Damn ABC had to put it in the exact same time slot as Texas/K-State. Maybe I can convince someone to get a live feed of the game on the GodzillaTron during the Texas game. Now I'm rambling... good work PB.
by Sweed4Heisman on Sep 24, 2007 4:20 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Splitting hairs ...
Luckily it doesn't matter now, but I would probably drop Florida a number of notches due to the close win this past weekend though it's hard to say they don't have the talent and ability to be in the Top 4. I just think they need to show it again.
Basically, take any team ranked #5 through #13 on this poll and throw them on a neutral field and I would say they would be pretty even today - and there would be some excellent cross-conference games in there!
by CyHorn770 on Sep 24, 2007 4:43 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
LSU #1
It shouldn't be debatable. LSU cans Va Tech, USC Lite, cupcakes with virtual ease. You told me earlier that this poll is morphing from a "should finish #x" to a "deserves to be #x" poll. Look at it both ways, though:
"Should finish:"
USC and LSU "should" win all of their games, LSU will have beaten Florida twice, South Carolina, Va Tech, Alabama, Kentucky, and Arkansas. This looks more and more likely every time you remember that the biggest stars on LSU's team are the meat and potatoes tough guys that do the dirty work. USC will have beaten Nebraska, Oregon, Cal, and Arizona State. This is obviously LSU's point. Only way you could argue otherwise is to give USC extra points for being more likely to win out, but isn't that just giving them bonus points for having an easier schedule?
"Deserves to be:"
LSU has crushed two teams in the top 15. USC smashed Nebraska, but didn't Nebraska just beat Ball State by 1? Didn't Nebraska struggle with Wake Forest? Didn't Nebraska forget how to tackle? USC even made stupid mistakes to let NU stay in the game through a quarter or two. The preseason is well behind us now, so you can't hang on to "USC is supposed to be good this year" anymore. USC has to be good. A lot good.
The problem I have is; I heard that if these two win out, then USC will be #1. WTF?!?!? This LSU team is not Auburn 2004. They do not play English Tea Party in their OOC schedule - They played Va Tech, and you could have easily immersed LSU into a mug of bayou water, boiled the mixture for a few minutes, and then scored enough to beat Va Tech with the spicy Creole broth left in said mug! LSU should be #1 now, and it will be a crime if they are not #1, should they be 13-0 come January.
USC can live with not being the de facto #1 for a few weeks, can't they? Spoiled brats...
by Horn Brain on Sep 24, 2007 5:12 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
You have no idea
How much I hate Les Miles...
Also - see the comment above. LSU gets its shot at Florida real soon here. I'll move them to #1 if they handle that test. Cool?
by Peter Bean on Sep 24, 2007 5:17 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
The point
Is that they deserve to be #1 now. USC gets the benefit of the doubt, and would stay number one even with only a mild thrashing of NU. I don't even like the Tigers, but they have top level talent, and are blowing the roof off of even their toughest opponents right now. USC is farting around and showing signs of mortality, and they get the top spot because they're usually really good. It seems like USC gets a lot of #1 votes because they're supposed to get a lot of #1 votes. I don't think I would pick LSU to bomb by 2 touchdowns against USC. It would be one of those games where one team gets things going their way and goes on a run, and that could decide the game. LSU and USC are both good, but LSU deserves #1 right now. Let Miles them squander it as they will, but they own that spot right now.
by Horn Brain on Sep 24, 2007 5:45 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
No definitive #1 right now
It is impossible to make a sound case for either USC or LSU as the definitive #1 at this point. Comparing wins against the same team at different points in a season is nearly an apples to oranges comparison, let alone comparing quality of wins against dissimilar opponents. Is VT a better team than NU? Who knows? Both of those teams got severely outplayed and their performance in subsequent games could be attributed to those loses. Besides, it's just too early to tell who the better team is. Even if both USC and LSU go undefeated during the season, LSU's in-conference wins don't automatically make them a better team. As more in-conference games are played a more solid opinion of both can be made, but until then these debates are pretty useless.
by blackdog81 on Sep 24, 2007 6:15 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hating Les
PB,
My wife is a Michigan alumn and would rather double Lloyd Carr's salary than hire Les to replace him. Still, Horns Brain makes compelling points. After the Florida game, IF the Hat doesn't blow it, the debate will pretty much be over.
by duras on Sep 24, 2007 8:14 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I hear ya
All these teams will have ample opportunity to prove themselves on the field.
If we encounter a logjam in November - believe me, we'll crunch the data hard, hard, hard until we figure out who's most deserving of which ranking.
by Peter Bean on Sep 24, 2007 8:51 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Texas in November
FWIW I'd be perfectly content with LSU/Florida splitting their games, looking sketchy v. UK, USC, et all, and the Horns beating OU in convincing fashion (hmmmm?!?!? - possible if some of the variations attempted v. Rice are made permanent but by no means certain even then), winning out and getting their filet handed to them in New Orleans - I sincerely regret to say that I am unconvinced that even under the most optimistic scenario the Horns could beat LSU/USC/Florida this year. Still, hope springs...
by duras on Sep 24, 2007 9:02 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Imagine how much you will hate Miles...
... when you have to watch him on the opposing sideline at Notre Dame games against the Wolverines once a year.
And you have to watch him snatch one or two of the top 10 players in Texas every year with his siren song.
by patienthornsfan on Sep 25, 2007 4:06 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'll guess we'll just have to wait until
USC smacks LSU by 2 TDs to settle this. They're the best team, period.
by Old Tex29 on Sep 24, 2007 5:21 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
ESPN's Mark Schlabach
by patienthornsfan on Sep 25, 2007 4:45 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Cincinnati doesn't...
....host San Diego State. They play @t San Diego State and those additional hours will make a difference in the game.
For the life of me, I can't understand how you are justifying keeping Ohio State behind our Horns. Currently, they are playing far superior ball against the cupcakes and their stomping of Washington ranks much higher than a victory over TCU. Did you notice TCU couldn't score a single point in the entire 2nd half against a wimpy SMU team??
I'm ecstatic to see you noticing the play of Kansas. Most haven't. Everyone was expecting them to play their usual stiff defense, but few expected this awesome offensive output. Todd Reesing has 11 TD's vs. a single INT. In just 4 games they have over 1,300 passing yards! Their top two RB's are averaging 6.75 YPC. I look forward to watching Mangino's boys playing Kansas State. If they do well in that game, then they are a real threat to win the North with Nebraska & Missouri both at home.
Kerry
by HornChamps on Sep 26, 2007 1:22 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
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