Mack Brown's Mistake In The Punting Game
Quan Cosby's check-in with the media on Tuesday involved a question on the kick return game, which he said he thought was "real close. Guys are out there working really, really hard. Like always, I have the easy part – just running the ball. Sometimes I don’t hit it right quite where I should. Those guys are going to continue to work and eventually, hopefully we’re able to get one in the (end) zone."
The end zone would be great, but let's start with the more modest goal of bringing the return game yardage above league average: Texas' 22.9 yards per kickoff return is 44th nationally and right in line with the '07 numbers (22.5 yards per return, 34th nationally). Cosby has returned 5 of the season's 8 kickoffs at 23.8 yards per--identical to his season average in 2007 when he returned 42 kicks for Texas, including a 91-yarder for a touchdown against Texas A&M.
For the second straight year Cosby also handles the majority of punt returns, and for the second straight season he is averaging less than 10 yards per return (8.0 so far this year; 9.3 in 2007). For as solid a receiver as is Cosby, when watching him return punts it's very obvious he's a below average punt returner, so much so that one wonders whether Mack Brown is just consciously choosing to give up the chance of big plays on the punt return by making sure no big plays go against Texas on punt returns: Not only is Cosby limited as a punt returned, but he fair catches the ball like few others in college football.
Texas has forced 22 punts through four games, but only 6 have been fielded and returned. A year ago, the Longhorns forced 70 punts and only returned 20, 84th fewest in the country and down in the cellar with teams which can't return punts because their defense can't force punts.Though that was also true of Texas too often last year, the percentage of total punts returned was far below most other teams; Oklahoma, for example, returned 45 of 89 punts in 2007, 9 of 29 so far this year.
To be fair, Quan hasn't had too many great chances yet this year, but last year's performance combined with what we can see with our own eyes, unmistakably suggests a passive approach to this element of the game. I was curious how Texas' punt return numbers since Quan assumed the job compare with a handful of other teams. Quick and dirty a small sample as it may be, the results do suggest our eyes aren't deceiving us:
| Punts | Touchbacks | Inside 20 | Blocked | Fair Catches | FC % | |
| Texas 2008 | 22 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 27% |
| Texas 2007 | 70 | 5 | 19 | 0 | 19 | 28% |
| Oklahoma 2007 | 89 | 5 | 20 | 0 |
24 | 22% |
| Mizzou 2007 | 70 | 6 | 19 | 0 | 17 | 24% |
| LSU 2007 | 82 | 5 | 27 | 0 | 20 | 24% |
| Ohio St 2007 | 103 | 5 | 21 | 1 | 13 | 13% |
| USC 2007 | 95 | 9 | 31 | 0 | 11 | 12% |
Is Mack Brown making a mistake? I don't think there's any doubt, for all of these reasons:
1. The risk-to-reward calculus favors taking yards where you can. Though circumstances will at times mandate a non-return (e.g. ball kicked out of bounds or hazardaously close to the goal line), where one is available, those extra yards gained justify risking a fumble. I can't prove it mathematically without data on how often players punt fumbles, but looking at the value-added of even 10 extra yards per return (helpful reference: RMN's Points Per Play chart), I'd be shocked if players fumble punt returns enough to cancel out or exceed in (negative) value that gain. Assuming that's true, Mack Brown isn't giving himself the best chance to win with the current strategy.
2. It's a wasted advantage. At least in theory, one of the benefits of being a recruiting-rich school like Texas should be on special teams, where the sheer volume of top-end talent should assure those units are stocked with playmakers--be they starters or four-star athletes who do not. Though as Texas fans we're at times silly in how much we obsess over whether the roster goes three and four deep at every position, a strong two-deep is out of most school's reach. But Mack's wasting that advantage here by trotting out a white surrender flag. It's nice that Quan doesn't fumble, but it'd be nicer if someone like Brandon James or Trindon Holiday was back there instead. (If DeSean Hales' redshirt comes off, I'd love to see him get a look.)
3.Game 5: Still paging playmakers. The offense has crushed the weak thanks to Colt's superhuman performance, but the uncomfortable companion question has to be: What if Colt gets hurt or has an off game? Most Texas fans will answer: "We're screwed." Probably true, but that of course doesn't mean we shouldn't be hunting for help at every turn. Sticking someone dynamic on punt return to see if they take to it would be worth the effort.
Relatedly, sometimes you just don't know what you have until you see it in live action. If replacing Quan meant risking losing his solid production, we might think differently, but as is, we're just conceding the punt return game as a non-factor, rather than giving other guys opportunities to shine. Mack should be more aggressive.
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38 comments
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Comments
Biggest reason that Quan should not return kicks and punts is
that he is so valuable as a receiver, it is just too risky to have him return kicks and punts. Special teams plays tend to be more dangerous than plays than regular plays because of the speeds of the players when they collide. Quan is a critical part of the horn offense and losing him to injury would be devastating.
I also agree with your other reasons.
by Kafka on Oct 2, 2008 12:14 AM CDT reply actions 1 recs
Aaron Williams
In my NCAA Texas dynasty, Aaron Williams returned punts for all four years, and won the Heisman doing so. His speed is sick.
by pleaseplaykindle on Oct 2, 2008 12:22 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
DJ Monroe...
is the way to go on NCAA. He’s a burner.
by jw4425 on Oct 2, 2008 12:40 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
No kidding
But I think they didn’t peak the same year (maybe a couple of years apart) I can’t remember. But they were both sick. Williams at CB won the Heisman on like 16 INT and 10 TD in a season. He had more TDs than most of my receivers.
by pleaseplaykindle on Oct 2, 2008 1:50 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
After watching that interception return against Arkansas
I was thinking the exact same thing. Everyone else looked like they were in slow motion.
Look me up on Xbox Live: Loondogiv
by Loondogiv on Oct 2, 2008 9:42 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Nice analysis, PB
I also have trouble believing Cosby is the most dynamic returner on the team. This is a significant problem for Mack Brown allowing Cosby to stay back there. Mack will tell you that there isn’t enough practice time or Quan has the best hands but that isn’t enough. Quan’s just not fast enough, he has no ability to take the corner. Chykie Brown does and visually looked much more explosive in his one kickoff return this year, gaining 29 yards, small sample size and all, but still five yards further than Cosby’s average.
The talent point is extremely valid – there must be someone on this team more explosive on returns than Quan Cosby and that player needs to be on the field returning kicks.
by GhostofBigRoy on Oct 2, 2008 12:24 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I might disagree with you here, PB
I’ll agree on kickoff returns because there’s no pressure when fielding a kickoff in the endzone and after that, it’s just A regular offensive play with a lot of blockers; no extra reason why someone would fumble much more often in that case. Thus speed and the ability to make an elusive move are the paramount skills. There’s no need to have Quan and Jordan field kickoffs when they’re clearly not the most explosive players on the team.
But I tend to think that fumbles on punts are FAR more common, if only because the returner is fielding the kick in traffic and then trying to make something happen without getting a running start and often times with defendersbehind him that he doesn’t see coming. And besides, against good teams, how often are you going to get a killer return on a punt? I think the percentages are likely better sending in the cavalry to block the punt, pressuring the kicker into a bad punt even of you don’t get to it, sacrificing the return, and taking the field position they give you. If you try to block the punts instead of going for returns, you get the same advantage of a potential game-changing play without the disadvantage of a potential turnover.
If Texas had a spastic offense like last year, I might feel differently, but with an elite offense than can move the ball almost at will, I would take care of the ball at all costs, try to block punts when you can, and let the O do all the work when you can’t block them. Even if the relative potential advantage of putting a better returner in the game is greater than the potential disadvantage of fumbling, that’s an average over the course of a season. In one specific game, if you have the offensive ability to outscore the other team, there’s no need to take the chance (even if it’s an above 50% chance) because that specific game may be the one in which the fumble means the difference between a win and a loss. It’s the conservative way to play, but when you have the offense that Texas has this year, there’s no need to take unnecessary chances unless you’re down late in the game.
by billyzane on Oct 2, 2008 12:50 AM CDT reply actions 1 recs
PB is right to pick on this but your sense of Mack is right on, BZ.
You both raise a question: When you have a solid team and plenty of weapons, do you deploy even more?
Right now this offense seems so good, but we’ll know in a few weeks if our perception is well founded.
KOs and punt returns are some of the most exciting and crowd pleasing plays in football. It’s one place where you can get all the crowd’s attention. I fully understand Mack’s conservatism in this but on the other I really enjoy those returns.
That’s a strong point about having the kind of talent to find great returners. From my point of view, it is the type of weapon that really puts pressure on a team, the completion of the hat trick to force an opponent to be on guard all the time, with no relief.
Last, with the points about the value of Quan and Shipley to the offense, new punt and KO returners are insurance, plain and simple. And, if you should get in a Georgia Cotton Bowl situation, any game situation where you must safely field the punt, put in Quan; there’s nothing stopping that, nothing at all.
Great topic PB and fine response, BZ.
Do we want the best team possible? Are we satisfied before we’ve really begun.
by whills on Oct 2, 2008 1:04 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm apparently the only one left
Who’s not entirely comfortable assuming this offense can sustain all season just on Colt being the best player in America. So I’m more eager to scrap for some help.
I’m still not sure how often players fumble punts. It’d be interesting to find out, so we could test this thing empirically. I’d guess there would have to be quite a few more punt fumbles than I’m imagining and a truly ELITE offense for the math to come out the way a conservative strategy requires.
--PB--
by Peter Bean on Oct 2, 2008 1:13 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
If the offense proves unable to sustain its advantage over the opposition...
…then I’m with you in calling for creating more relative advantage in other areas. But my point is, if you have the ability to line up and beat someone with little to no risk of screwing it up and giving the other team an advantage they shouldn’t have, then why do it? Play to a draw in special teams and win the game on offense and defense. If you increase risk of screwing something up by trying (unnecessarily) to also dominate the special teams game, you’re not going to win any more games than you would have anyway and there’s a stronger chance that you’ll potentially lose a game due to a mistake made on special teams.
Cost benefit analysis. There are times when it might be useful to have someone more explosive than Quan out there. There are also times when it’s much more beneficial to play it safe. With the type of offense Texas has this year, the instances of the latter, I imagine, will outnumber instances of the former.
by billyzane on Oct 2, 2008 1:24 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
As for the statistics
You’re probably right that the statistics work out in favor of taking a chance. It’s the same idea that coaches should really go for it on 4th down more often or that baseball coaches shouldn’t bunt and give up an out.
But that’s all circumstantial. Even if you have an 85% chance of converting a certain 4th down, the 15% of the time that you don’t convert it may be catastrophic for the game you’re currently playing whereas punting would give you a better chance to win the game. It’s about circumstance. Even if statistics say you shouldn’t sac bunt because, on the whole, you’ll score more runs in an inning if you don’t give up an out, in a certain situation in which you need 1 run to win or tie, it still makes sense to bunt. Circumstance.
It’s not about collective statistics here. If you don’t need to take the chance, you shouldn’t.
by billyzane on Oct 2, 2008 1:34 AM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
I get all that
But I can’t agree with you.
To begin with, the issue is not “should I cautiously field THIS punt” because the circumstances of the game dictate a possession here is critical. I don’t dispute that there are times when playing a given punt safe is wise, any more than I would dispute that you don’t play for 2 runs when you only need 1.
The issue is whether Mack’s decision to play the entire punt return operation conservatively is prudent. And given that you concede the math, I’m not sure I get your position. You seem to be saying that against teams that Texas can beat without going full bore, it shouldn’t bother. That’s fine insofar as it makes sense to avoid mine fields when only a catastrophe could keep you from your goal. But the real goal is to be good enough to beat Rice AND become the best team you can be so you can beat, say, Oklahoma. And I don’t see much daylight between what you’re advocating and that old Mack philosophy of not playing freshmen until we’d lost to Oklahoma. Which I know you hated.
You’re right that circumstances matter, but playing to avoid catastrophe against Rice doesn’t help you prepare to beat someone better. Nor is a coach’s fear of the catastrophe to a patsy a good reason to adopt a strategy that is both demonstrably irrational and fails to prepare the team for better competition.
It’s not about collective statistics here. If you don’t need to take the chance, you shouldn’t.
It’s not just about collective statistics, but they’re an important variable that isn’t safely ignore due to the existence of “this is a time to play it safe” exceptions. Identifying certain circumstances in which a fumble is the absolute last thing the team can afford is not difficult, easy to apply, and perfectly in accord with maximizing the value-added. But calling every punt against every team you should be able to beat without punt returning a time to play it safe is uncharacteristically narrow of you, BZ. You’re right: Circumstance counts. And looking in isolation at a game you can win without your punt returning/Cedric Benson/whatever is ignoring gobs of circumstance for all the wrong reasons, and at the expense of values that help you reach bigger goals.
Because ‘need’ relative, too.
--PB--
by Peter Bean on Oct 2, 2008 2:16 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Completely agree with BZ on this one
Normally I hate the conservative thing, but I think Mack is making the right decision on the punts. Is the risk of flipping the field, giving the ball back to the offense, and having to keep your defense on the field to get more tired, worth a few extra yards and a return every now and then? I say no.
KOs and punt returns are some of the most exciting and crowd pleasing plays in football. It’s one place where you can get all the crowd’s attention.
As are muffed punts. I’d even go as far as to say that fumbling a punt has just as much of a chance to turn the momentum in a game as a punt return. Case in point the game against USC. We had just stuffed their offense (twice?) to beging the game. We field a punt near field and then fumble it over to USC. They score quickly and suddenly have all of the momentum.
Also, look no further than the Spring game this year where Mack had some of the young explosive guys fielding punts. There were two muffs in that game, Curtis Brown had one and another young player had another.
Having said all of that, I like the fact that Mack is trying out some of the younger guys (so far Scott, Ch. Brown and Cu. Brown) at fielding punts late in games. Let them take is slow and build confidence in themselves and by the coaching staff.
by Horncasting on Oct 2, 2008 9:27 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
You remember the old DKR quote?
Paraphrasing, “Only 3 things can happen when you throw a pass, and two of them are bad.” His philosophy was “cram it down their throats with the run when you have better athletes and don’t take the risks inherent with throwing passes.” Of course, when the running game wasn’t working and he had to pass, he did, notably on 4th down against Arkansas in ‘69 and then on that famous winning drive against Notre Dame in the Cotton Bowl that year. He was playing conservatively when he could and opening up when he had to. Which I don’t think is a bad strategy at all.
This offensive philosophy doesn’t work quite as much now because of scholarship restrictions and the ridiculous defensive speed a lot of teams have these days. You pretty much have to pass to beat elite defenses. But that doesn’t change the fact that it’s inherently more risky to pass than to run when you have the athletes to win by just lining up and running. The philosophy still holds. And although, just as with the passing game that DKR shunned, on the whole you’ll probably get more of an advantage from taking risks than a disadvantage, unlike the passing game that DKR shunned, the added advantage of better field position is only minimal on any given drive compared with the potential catastrophe of a muffed punt.
by billyzane on Oct 2, 2008 11:22 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Doesn't make it right
I understand the reasoning behind the decision, but it doesn’t make it, in my view, a good one. I also understand why baseball managers do the wrong thing, but it doesn’t make the decision the right one. It’s the same principle why people won’t take a bet that a perfectly rational person should take but doesn’t.
It just doesn’t make the decision the right one. The argument’s validity rests on a premise I don’t find compelling: That the likelihood of catastrophe against a team Texas should be able to beat with or without a muffed punt is likely enough to justify giving away all the benefits that come from returning punts purposefully.
Looks like we’ll have to agree to disagree on this one.
--PB--
by Peter Bean on Oct 2, 2008 12:12 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
One last shot
How about we look at it through a different lens?
I’m in a fantasy football league and another guy offered to trade me two players (a running back and a WR) for Frank Gore. These two players will undoubtedly score more fantasy points combined than Frank Gore will by himself, thus making it seem like an upgrade for me. However, the running back he was trading me is not going to score as many points as Gore and the wide receiver he was trading me (Marvin Harrison) was a negligible upgrade over the wide receivers I already had. Thus, while the straight up and down trade-off was beneficial to me (more fantasy points), the relative benefit was even at best.
So while, strictly speaking, the straight up and down trade-off of getting potentially more explosive punt returners in there is probably more statistically advantageous (I’m conceding this, but we don’t actually know that it’s true), you have to look at the relative advantages that it gives you. So let’s look at relative advantages:
— Explosive Plays: I think that putting Quan out there on an island with his sure hands and trying to block every punt is going to get you just as many TDs and explosive plays as putting Aaron Williams or whomever out there and going for the return every time, if only because the ability to block a punt has virtually nothing to do with where a team is punting from, but the ability to return a punt has everything to do with where a team is punting from (i.e. you’re less likely to be able to return a punt kicked from the 50 yard line than from the 20, but you’re equally likely to be able to block both of those punts). You have more opportunities to block a kick than to return one.
— Field Position: trying to block a punt and not doing it still puts pressure on the punter to rush his motions. You’re going to get more shanks with pressure than without, resulting in better field position. Good returns will get you better field position as well, but putting someone back there who’s trying to break a TD every time also often result in a fair amount of losses of yardage. Having someone who gets 4-5 yards on every return may not statistically outgain someone who tries to break a TD every time, but you’re also never putting your offense in a hole.
— Bad Things: if we assume that the younger guys are more prone to punt muffing and what not (which the spring game and the coaches’ attitudes seem to suggest), then having Quan out there is an undeniable asset in preventing bad things from happening. The strategy of trying to block every punt leaves you vulnerable to the fake. You don’t have to rush EVERY time, but even if you gave up a fake every now and then, that gets the opposing team what, somewhere between 5-15 yards? A muffed punt gives them what, 40-50 yards?
Are the relative advantages of doing it your way really that much better than doing it my way? Seems like almost a draw to me.
by billyzane on Oct 2, 2008 1:08 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
If the offense needs a player other than Colt to step up
then I think we should look for a player who is involved in more than a handful of plays each game. Maybe Fozzy can fill this role.
Incidentally, maybe the reason we don’t return a lot of punts is because our team this season has been giving up a ton of yards before forcing the punt? Maybe there’s just not a lot of field between the punter and the return man. I don’t have stats to back up my argument, but this logic gels well with the Muschamp bend don’t break defense.
by pleaseplaykindle on Oct 2, 2008 1:52 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think the underlying assumption
with your argument, BZ, is that the backup returners would be more prone to fumbles than Cosby. There’s no evidence of this other than they aren’t on the field and Mack Brown has cited the lack of practice time before for other returners not playing, so I wonder how much of a difference there is really. If the backups aren’t more likely to fumble than Cosby, or only slightly more likely, as in, say, once every 25 punts rather than once every 50 punts, does that justify putting them in over Cosby. Once again, we’re hurt by our distance from the program and inability to see what is happening during practice, which is and will remains a significant frustration.
by GhostofBigRoy on Oct 2, 2008 7:48 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
nit picking
There’s no evidence of this other than they aren’t on the field
No game-time evidence, doesn’t mean Mack has no evidence! Remember, game time is not the only time Mack see these kids. But, I agree, Mack should play the others so we — fans — can be sure they fumble too
On the other hand, it’s hard to believe we don’t have a guy on the team who can do a better job returning kicks, given what we’ve seen from these kids in high school.In Mack Brown We Trust!
by Cyrus on Oct 2, 2008 8:34 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
2 muffed punts in the screen game
by the young players was enough for me to want Cosby back there.
by Horncasting on Oct 2, 2008 9:18 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
you're right in that sense
If the other returners aren’t much more likely to fumble than Quan, then there’s no sense in having Quan out there. I’m going under the assumption that Mack has seen something that we haven’t seen. Since I have no idea, I have to.
by billyzane on Oct 2, 2008 9:19 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Mack's seen something, all right
It’s called seniority.
by jc25 on Oct 2, 2008 9:57 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
mack played selvin young on punts when he was a freshman
it’s not just that.
by billyzane on Oct 2, 2008 10:46 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
You absolutely cover the waterfront
on your punt return analysis. Returning punts is like trying to fend off bees when you accidentally hit their nest. One of ’em is going to sting you!!!!!!
Better to go for the punt block, the fair catch, the safe-before-sorry approach. BY ALL MEANS, do not increase the chance that the defense, which just did its job, may have to out there — 40 yards closer to the goal line — and have to do it again.
I do disagree on one small point: JShipley IS one of the most explosive players on the team. Like our QB, he may not impress the watch-holders or the pro scouts, but he has excellent speed and he knows how to use it.
by edsp on Oct 2, 2008 7:43 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Punt blocking kinda risks a turn over...
in roughing the kicker. That’s really equivalent to a turn over isn’t it?
by ajax77777 on Oct 3, 2008 5:36 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Will Mack take risks against OU?
This discussion brings out the cynic in me. Here we are focusing on a deficiency in the Texas gameplan. As much as I’d like to overlook the punt/kickoff return game, I can’t. With so much to celebrate, I can’t help but worry about this element of the team. Some will say the offense is great, the return game is satisfactory so why worry.
My fear: Texas offense sputters against OU, and the field position battle becomes a critical factor to the outcome. Texas loses, and we’re back to square one, thinking about what would’ve been had Chykie or Aaron Williams of DeSean Hales had their chance to burn up the field. Texas loses, and suddenly, the lack of a vertical passing game is a big concern. Texas loses, and suddenly all those little nitpicky deficiencies that have been pointed out up to this point become the focal points of the entire Longhorn nation.
We don’t have much to criticize these days, but we also have to control for the quality of past opponents vs future opponents. If the return game is just satisfactory against poor-average competition, what will it look like against elite competition? In closer matches, a ho-hum return game, as PB (and others like Chip Brown and Geoff Ketchum) has suggested, will become an eyesore and possibly even a reason fans point to as, god forbid, the reason Texas lost.
by Kool Hand on Oct 2, 2008 2:26 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
To give credit where credit is due
3 for 22 on blocks is a great percentage that lets hope continues. I would take the conservative returning if we keep on getting blocks.
by Wells on Oct 2, 2008 7:05 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Not so sure
I’m torn on this. On one hand, we should really have someone who can do a better job than Quan. He has sure hands, but it’s not like he never fumbles either.
On the other hand, Remember the time everyone were saying Chiles should get meaningful snaps. The reason was we don’t know his capabilities. Where are those people now? Here is a newsflash: coaches have seen these guys in practice, and know their capabilities to a much greater degree than us. We don’t need to see them for ourself so we can judge! My point: it could be the case that based on the practice, non of the candidates is capable of doing a better job than Quan.
In Mack Brown We Trust!
by Cyrus on Oct 2, 2008 7:19 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
True
But I just have a hard time thinking that with all our talent, the best we have is a middle of the road return man.
This was one of my points in talking about our mediocrity last year, and it has not been addressed yet either. I kind of get the feeling that Mack is trying to up Quan’s stock as a draftee by getting him more touches, and more potential highlights. He seemed to have done that with success for Selvin Young as well.
by BoddickerIsClutch on Oct 2, 2008 9:20 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
One hole in the stats
Where the line of scrimmage is when the ball is kicked is a great influence on how the return is setup. If the punt goes up from the opponent when they are at their own 30 yard mark gives the returner more opportunities for a good return than if they kick for the return teams own 40.
The horn defense has been a bend but not break type of team. It gives up yardage in the pretty easily until the opposing team gets onto the horns side of the field.
Texas was at the bottom of the list you presented with forcing only 70 punts, the teams which were better than the horns forced more punts which means either the horns kept the ball out of the opposing teams (not likely for it’s weak defense) or the other teamed scored or made a turnover. Texas was 45th in scoring defense, allowed 40 tds to Ohio St.’s 20. Only USC and LSU had a higher percentage of kicks inside their 20.
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,inside 20,,,,,,,,,FC ,,,,,,,,,, #extra returns than Texas
LSU,,,,,,,,,,,,32.9% ,,,,,,,,,,, 24% ,,,,,,,,,,,,,7.3
USC,,,,,,,,,,,,32.6% ,,,,,,,,,,,12% ,,,,,,,,,,,,,19
Texas,,,,,,,,,,27.1% ,,,,,,,,,,,,28%,,,,,,,,,,,,,0
Mizzou,,,,,,,,,,27.1% ,,,,,,,,,,,24% ,,,,,,,,,,,,2.1
Oklahoma,,,22.4% ,,,,,,,,,,,22% ,,,,,,,,,,,,0
Ohio St. ,,,,,,20.3% ,,,,,,,,,,,,13%,,,,,,,,,,,,6.9
Having less kicks inside the your 20 means less fair catches The difference between Texas and LSU may just be the difference between a small number of punts. Texas may have had 4 or 5 punts inside the ten than LSU or that small number of longer punts to LSU where the return man had room to run. USC really stands out as something different. Texas fair caught everything inside the 20 and USC ran back 20 out of 31.
I would bet this has less to do with how good the returner is and more about how conservative the coach is. To say mack brown is more conservative than pete carroll or les miles is pretty clear. But only a handful of kicks can also exaggerate how conservative Mack Brown looks.
by Xerxes on Oct 2, 2008 9:26 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Other stats
I would also be interested to see a column on the chart that indicates whether the defense was trying for the block or the return. It could be that a high frequency of our fair catches are when we are trying to block the kick, and that we are going for the block more often than the other teams. In such cases, the expected return yardage would drop along with the chance of recovering a muff. We might also look at the distance of the punts (or the averages of the punters), since a shorter kicks typically get better coverage and the returner gets fewer yards before contact, both of which make a fair catch more attractive.
Before you criticize someone, walk a mile in their shoes. If they get mad, you're a mile away AND you have their shoes.
by Caradoc on Oct 2, 2008 10:49 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
more other stats
also a coaches tendency not to do one or the other much
There is always the other guy, how good the opposing punter can make a difference.
by Xerxes on Oct 2, 2008 12:50 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Quan
If Quan can get back to his 9.3 yards per punt return bordering on 10, that’d be fine with me. I understand the need for playmakers, but that’s really not a bad average and he doesn’t fumble. Of course, the second Cosby does, we’ll all wonder what the heck Mack was thinking.
However, on kickoffs, I’d love to see someone else field them. Cosby and Shipley both have had a great year so far, but not only does it make little sense to risk our two veteran receivers on special teams, I’m sure we can find a more dangerous returner among our ranks.
Overall, I agree that Mack is being too conservative. Even if we grant that our offense will keep its pace during our brutal Big 12 schedule, it’s not like we have the only offense in the Big 12 capable of putting up points. Against OU, Mizzou, and Tech, we’ll definitely want other advantages that help us score.
by TheElusiveShadow on Oct 2, 2008 1:06 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Another point
While some have mentioned the risk / reward of punt returns, the general consensus seems to be that there is no potential downside to trying to block punts. How about roughing / running into the punter? My point is only that there is a potential risk to rushing the punter, or for that matter, any strategy you choose to implement. It requires a well coached punt coverage / blocking team, and even then there will be some calls against you.
As far as exciting plays for the fans go, I think blocking a punt and returning it for a TD is right up there at the top.
by Longhorn in Canada on Oct 2, 2008 6:44 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
However
You have a point about running into the punter, but that’s just 5 yards and may not give the other team a first down. Roughing is a deliberate act and just plain stupid. Yes, there are plenty of opportunities for personal fouls on returns as well.
However, a blocked punt is just a matter of yardage — maybe 50 or more, to be sure — but you were going to get the ball back anyway. With a muff on the return, you are giving up about that much yardage, plus the possession. In terms of damage done, there is nothing worse, except maybe a long interception return.
Before you criticize someone, walk a mile in their shoes. If they get mad, you're a mile away AND you have their shoes.
by Caradoc on Oct 3, 2008 1:26 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

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