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Have At It: Blog Poll Top 25 Draft Ballot

I've to this point been pretty wishy-washy with my Blog Poll rankings, in large part because there wasn't gobs of data to dive into in the first place. But here we are, the regular season is halfway complete, and our team, the Longhorns, suddenly find themselves among the front runners.

So this week I bust out the charts, plotting each team's wins (excluding non-Division 1 opponents) and strength of schedule, as measured by Jeff Sagarin here.  As always, I'm open to your feedback. Please bear in mind: this is not a power poll. So telling me you think "Texas would beat Alabama" is not a relevant consideration. We're ranking on resume alone here; variations in how one values a loss, margin of victory, and home/road splits could lead you to rank teams differently than I have below. I welcome your thoughts.

TEAM 1 2 3 4 5 6 SCHED
1. Alabama @ UGA (+11) UK (+3) n-CLEM (+24) @ ARK (+35) WKY (+34) TUL (+14) 38
2. Texas n-OU (+10) @ CU (+24) ARK (+42) RICE (+42)
@ UTEP (+29) FAU (+42) 43
3. Penn St Ore St (+31) @ WIS (+41) ILL (+14) @ PUR (+14) TEM (+42) @ SYR (+42) 74
4. USC Ohio St (+32) ORE (+34) @ UVA (+45) ASU (+28) @ Ore St (-6) 3
5. Oklahoma St @ MU (+5) Troy (+31) HOU (+19) A&M (+28) @ WSU (+26) 94
6. Florida LSU (+30) MIA (+23) @ TN (+24) @ ARK (31) HI (+46) MISS (-1) 21
7. Oklahoma TCU (+25) @ BU (+32) CIN (+26) @ WAS (+41) n-TEX (-10) 32
8. Georgia @ S.CAR (+7) @ ASU (+17) TN (+12) C. MICH (+39) ALA (-11) 23
9. Texas Tech NEB (+6) @ KSU (+30) @ NEV (+16) MASS (+42) SMU (+36) 105
10. Ohio State MIN (+13) @ WIS (+3) PUR (+13) Troy (+18) Ohio (+12) @ USC (-32) 40
11. Utah Ore St (+3) @ AF (+7) @ MICH (+2) UNLV (+21) @ Utah St (+48) @ WYO (+33) 72
12. Boise St @ ORE (+5) BGU (+13) LA Tech (+35) @ SMU (+17) 111
13. Virginia Tech @ UNC (+3) GT (+3) @ NEB (+5) WKY (+14) @ ECU (-5) 30
14. BYU UCLA (+59) NM (+18) @ WAS (+1) @ Utah St (+20) WYO (+44) 121
15. Missouri @ NEB (+35) n-ILL (+10) NEV (+52) BUF (+21) OK ST (-5) 87
16. LSU @ AUB (+5) Miss St (+10) UNT (+38) @ UF (-30) 66
17. California
MSU (+7) ASU (+10) CSU (+35) @ WSU (+63) @ UMD (-8) 55
18. North Carolina
CONN (+26) ND (+5) @ MIA (+4) @ RUT (+32) VT (-3) 36
19. Michigan State
NW (+17) ND (+16) IA (+3) @ IU (+13) FAU (+17) @ CAL (-7) 45
20. Vanderbilt S. CAR (+7) @ MISS (+6) AUB (+1) RICE (+17) @ MIA (OH) (+21) @ Miss St (-3) 48
21. Wake Forest
@ FSU (+9) MISS (+2) @ BU (+29) Clem (+5) Navy (-7) 13
22. Ball State
NAVY (+12) @ IU (+22) @ Akron (+17) @ Toledo (+31) @ WKY (+17) Kent St (+21) 107
23. Kansas CU (+16) FIU (+30) @ ISU (+2) La Tech (+29) @ USF (-3) 95
24. Georgia Tech
@ BC (+3) Miss St. (+31) Duke (+27) @ VT (-3) 89
25. Minnesota @ ILL (+7) @ BGU (+25) IU (+9) NIU (+14) FAU (34) @ Ohio St (-13) 77

Under consideration: Oregon State, TCU, South Carolina, Oregon, Connecticut, Northwestern, Tulsa, South Florida, Boston College, Florida State, Navy

0 recs  |  Comment 31 comments |

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Comments

Display:

I've had issues in other weeks

Here, you and I are on the same page (I’d be uncomfortable if I were you) . . . Bama on top due to tougher schedule seems correct. Sadly, I think you’re right on the Paternos and the Carrolls. Utah at 11, maybe. Boise at 12 is off base — and they’ll probably go 12-0 and end up in the Fiesta again. At the expense of a deserving SEC or Big 12 team with two losses from a killer schedule.

by edsp on Oct 12, 2008 5:43 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

One thing I noticed

Penn State @ Wisconsin +41
Ohio State @ Wisconsin +3

Perhaps the most recognizable mascot in sports, and certainly the toughest looking, Bevo is a fixture

by run Bevo run on Oct 12, 2008 5:54 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

That is the spread

not some kind of points system.

Unless you are just saying that Penn State is that much better than Ohio St, in which case never mind.

by Wells on Oct 12, 2008 10:00 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Exactly

Penn State is scary talented.

Perhaps the most recognizable mascot in sports, and certainly the toughest looking, Bevo is a fixture

by run Bevo run on Oct 13, 2008 12:25 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Nothing in the big 10

is scary, unless you play in the Big East.

by Wells on Oct 13, 2008 10:30 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Seconded.

I think escaping Tulane and Kentucky because of unconventional scores more than offsets what little good came of whipping yet another uninspiring Clemson team. Plus, that win over Georgia can’t touch our win over OU. Georgia had to play four quarters against Tennessee, for crying out loud (sorry, Holly. Berry’s still a man.).

by Horn Brain on Oct 12, 2008 7:17 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Texas over OU/Bama over Georgia

Absolutely. Bama’s win was very impressive and sufficient to make them number one last week.

However, we can say with certainty that ‘Bama isn’t 31 points better than Georgia, at Georgia, at the half. Kudos to the Tide for coming out with that much steem, putting Georgia on its heels and slamming the door shut in the second half. On Saturday, however, OU, one of the best teams in the country came out firing if not on all than at least on most of its very formidable cillinders, played, on balance, an excellent game from start to pretty much finish and was defeated by on OU team that matched them in talent and execution and bested them in resilience and heart. Further, the merit of the Clemson win was further diluted by the disaster against Wake Forest. Given our sytematic dominance against the rif raf and ’Bama’s difficulties with Kentucky and Tulane our case is fairly decisive if not quite overwhelming.

Of course this is all academic at this point at many very difficult tests remain. Still, I think one can make a very powerful, and objective, argument that we deserve to be number 1 at this time.

marshalld

by duras on Oct 13, 2008 2:25 PM CDT up reply actions   1 recs

USC

i dont know how you can reasonably rank one loss USC ahead of OU. Yeah, they were impressive against Ohio State. Yeah, they’re a talented and good team. But if youre basing it on resume, that loss is HORRIBLE. Oregon State is not a good team.i think you have to have USC behind OU, and probably behind oklahoma state.

by 6th street on Oct 12, 2008 6:04 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

See HornChamps comment below

1) Oregon State is much better than you’re giving them credit for (#17 Sagarin)

2) USC has OU pantsed in the wins department.

--PB--

by Peter Bean on Oct 12, 2008 7:19 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'm not sure...

how you came to that inaccurate conclusion.

Oregon State went to Happy Valley and lost to #3 Penn State by a ton – just like all of PSU’s opponents. Losing those 3 hours probably didn’t help.

Oregon State traveled to Salt Lake City and played a tough game against #14 Utah and lost by a measly 3 points.

The Stanford loss was an opening game loss with numerous injuries.

Since then, they’ve stomped a collective 111-20 mudhole in Hawaii and Washington State.

Then there was that 6-point victory over then-ranked #1 USC.

Looking at their schedule, they’ve probably lost their last game of the regular season. They are a pretty solid 9-3 team.

--- All roads to the Big-XII Championship lead through OU/RRS. It's not just another game! We're all about championships here. ---

by HornChamps on Oct 12, 2008 7:09 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

oregon state is a wierd team

they can play a great game one day and a terrible one the next. They will NOT win out, no matter how easy their schedule is. OSU is a team that can lose to anyone on any given saturday.

"There aint nothin' over till it's over. "
~Rocky Balboa

by Hook'em13 on Oct 12, 2008 8:03 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Mike Riley's...

….Oregon State teams have historically had a tough time getting out of the gate. However, they finish well.

Look at their performance the past two seasons.
Early Season: 4-5
Final 9 games: 15-3

After losing 3 of their first 5 games, Oregon State has a good chance of finishing the season 9-3.

--- All roads to the Big-XII Championship lead through OU/RRS. It's not just another game! We're all about championships here. ---

by HornChamps on Oct 13, 2008 10:30 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

this is a great chart

And for the first time, I really don’t see anything I can quibble with.

by andy_wooster on Oct 12, 2008 8:54 PM CDT reply actions   1 recs

USC redux

The chart is really helpful: well done.

Although I think the poll is solid, I have trouble understanding why USC is so high. They have no signature wins, and they lost to an unimpressive team. On resume, OU, Florida, and Georgia all are at least as worthy. . . . By implication, tOSU is also ranked too high — no quality wins, and devastated by their only worthy opponent.

Missouri and LSU are perhaps ranked too low; the teams that beat them have talent.

by Allaha on Oct 12, 2008 10:02 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Forget it

When I saw Texas was not #1, I found I had no further interest in this matter.

Before you criticize someone, walk a mile in their shoes. If they get mad, you're a mile away AND you have their shoes.

by Caradoc on Oct 12, 2008 11:35 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Good to know

Appreciate your sharing that.

Can you never tell me to be open minded again, then? Thanks!

--PB--

by Peter Bean on Oct 13, 2008 12:13 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Ok, Ok

I suppose I was still a little charged up after Saturday. But I must say I was shocked to see the #2 ranking after we got #1 in both major polls. I realize the Blog Poll aims to be more ‘scientific’ than those others, though it’s still not clear what it is endeavoring to measure. Best resume??? Say what?

You might consider this: when other Blog Poll contributors see that you have ranked your own school at #2, it may influence them to set Alabama in the #1 spot until they lose. They expect you to rank Texas #1 and if you don’t, those sitting on fence may decide to go the other way.

This is a time to be Captain Kirk, not Mr. Spock.

Before you criticize someone, walk a mile in their shoes. If they get mad, you're a mile away AND you have their shoes.

by Caradoc on Oct 13, 2008 10:00 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

See, now that you invoked Star Trek it totally makes sense.

There’s gotta be a Godwin’s Law corollary for that.

________________________________
I will give my shirt for Tennessee today.

by Holly on Oct 13, 2008 10:46 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

look at the monkey...

…look at the silly monkey!

If You See Kay, Oh You

by texfan23 on Oct 13, 2008 2:08 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Question on strength of schedule

Alabama (SOS 38) has outscored its opponents by 121 points. Texas (SOS 43) has outscored its opponents by 189 points. Wouldn’t that more than make up for the relatively slight difference in strength of opponents?
I have been impressed with Alabama this year. Much like UT, they are showing a lot more than most people expected. Both teams were expected to be building for something much better in 2009, and both have risen up and bit supposedly superior opponents in the ass.
As Mack said, nobody will remember who was #1 at the end of week 6. It’s only the final ranking that counts. With the schedule we have, if we manage to be up there at the end of the year, we will have accomplished something really special. Hell, we have already accomplished something pretty damn special.

by Longhorn in Canada on Oct 13, 2008 12:38 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

I'm guessing...

… PB is playing the classic “Let’s not go sucking our dicks just yet, gentlemen…” card, hoping that we don’t overlook Mizzou and shoot ourselves in the foot right away.

by Horn Brain on Oct 13, 2008 2:00 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

You mean

Like all the people who are talking College Gameday covering the Horns for 4 straight weeks?

Perhaps the most recognizable mascot in sports, and certainly the toughest looking, Bevo is a fixture

by run Bevo run on Oct 13, 2008 1:46 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah, I find the thought horrifying...

for this reason (among others).

(Warning: Some of Orson’s most inspired work, and also…disturbing)

proud to swim home

by learned hand on Oct 13, 2008 2:10 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Can you believe

He was roommates with Bo Darville

Perhaps the most recognizable mascot in sports, and certainly the toughest looking, Bevo is a fixture

by run Bevo run on Oct 13, 2008 2:19 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

No argument here

I would be extatic to get out of the conference with 1 loss and might, depending on circumstances, be very content with a 2 loss season. I am emphatically not overlooking Missouri. Daniel’s performance against OSU (well, without the ints) and our less than fortress-like pass defense vs. OU leave me petrified.

Petrified but not particularly anxious. I’ve have been oblitarated at work and have watched far too little football this season, this being my first full weekend for a while. Still, I’ve been following closely enough and have to say that I’ve enjoyed Texas football immensely since the Holliday last year. In some ways I’m enjoying this season more than 2005. After the win in Columbus I would have considered anything less than an MNC (the USC hype notwithstanding) a serious disappointment. This year, as I comment above, the expectations are fewer and the accomplishments easier to appreciate.

Still, bearing in mind the hiring and effect of Muschamp we need to consider that there is virtually 0 chanc e he’ll be here in 2010 and perhaps not more than 50/50 that he’ll stick around for 2009. With Colt and the D expectations would rise and the anxiety might return.

marshalld

by duras on Oct 13, 2008 2:35 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

One other minor quibble

While I think you probably have LSU about right, I would hesitate to say a 5 point win at Auburn was better than any of their other wins. In fact, it might actually be worse than their loss at the swamp.
I don’t think we will be hiring any coordinators off this Auburn team.

by Longhorn in Canada on Oct 13, 2008 12:44 AM CDT reply actions   1 recs

It could be the other way around

Auburn just might want one of their coordinators back from us at the end of the season. I never thought that Tubberville’s job would be in jeopardy this season. But then again, I never thought this Arkansas team would win an SEC road game, either. The natives are getting very restless in Auburn right now – don’t be at all surprised if they want their BOOM back after the Iron Bowl.

Friends may come and go, but enemies accumulate.
- Thomas Jones

by beast in bama on Oct 13, 2008 10:39 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

LSU must go

They have zero quality wins and a horrible blowout loss.

South Carolina has two road wins over SEC teams that are better than LSU’s best win. Their losses? Georgia, in a very evenly played game, and Vanderbilt on a Thursday night, in large part because a punt hit a blocker in the back.

by FSUncensored on Oct 13, 2008 8:06 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

much better...

only you forgot the classic that was Georgia Tech beating FCS opponent Gardner-Webb(2-4) 10-7 on a tipped field goal block.

by vy til i die on Oct 13, 2008 10:42 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

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