Friday Night Open Thread: Final Texas-Missouri Thoughts

Some part of me wants a lower scoring game but I think that the kind of scores y’all have is really what we’ll see. These offenses have too many weapons in the hands of great QBs with good game judgment.

Maclin will get a couple and the big TE will be hell in the red zone.

Texas will need the outside threat of Fozzy, and I expect some of the younger receivers to get some opportunities. Of course, we could throw to CoJo over the middle and give those safeties some of their own medicine. If we’re going to run a triple option, this is the week.

GD has to be more aggressive rather than less.

Enjoyed the radio show but there was a distracting echo.

BTW Gilbert broke the 10,000-yard career mark tonight, 20-28 for 376, 5 TDs against what was thought to be a decent team (Hendrickson, now 5-3), won going away 57-0 (same score as last week vs. Lampasas). Lake Travis is 8-0. Gilbert now ranks third overall in Texas football history.

I don’t think I’ve ever seen a No. 1 team playing against a team outside the top 10 picked by so many to lose. Is this how it’s going to be the rest of the way out even if we keep winning? Isn’t the definition of 1st better than everyone else? Or at least what people perceive at the time? CFN ranked Texas No. 1 in their rankings, and Colt as first in Heisman watch. How does that not logically lead to a prediction for Texas? I could understand maybe if it was on the road, but here at home? Ahhh, silly media.

In the OU game, the UT O performance in the second half was much more conservative and effective than in the first half. In the first half, colt made some long passes and was really getting chased around by the OU blitz. He was sacked a few times, had two fumbles and threw a terrible pass up for grabs that sure looked like an interception. The horns’ O scored 13 points in the first half (and three of those points can be disputed).

In the second half, the horns’ O was much more conservative and effective, scoring 25 points (including a kneel down last drive). The longest pass that Colt completed in the second half was 12 yards in the air (with 25 yac). Every other completion in the second half was <= 10 yards (including yac)!

The focus on short passing in the second half netralized the OU blitz. This was hugely important. Another huge factor was that GD attacked the substitute MLB by throwing short passes in his area. Like most LBs, the MLB was better at stopping the run than defending the pass. In the second half alone, the horns completed 7 passes to Shipley in the MLB area.

These two strategic changes that GD made at half time were not super creative or aggressive, they were actually quite simple and conservative. GD just used little simple passes to neutralize OU’s strength (blitzing) and attack OU’s weakness (short pass D, especially by the substitute MLB).

So the key concept in the Mizzou game (indeed, any game) for offensive strategy is to examine the matchups (which vary from play to play, of course), understand the vulnerabilities/strengths for UT and Mizzou WRT these matchups, and constuct a strategy that masks the UT vulnerabilities and attacks the Mizzou. This strategy should be as simple and conservative as is practicable because mistakes are ruinous.

So, how do you apply this matchup analysis approach to the Mizzou game?

In the OU game, which is a pressure cooker, GD mainly kept the ball in the hands of his veterans (colt, Ogbonnaya, Quan, and Ship) in the second half. Cody was only used to score TDs. Since the Mizzou game is a home game, GD may feel more comfortable playing some of the young guys like Cody, Malcolm, and Fozzy in more substantial roles.

If Cody or Fozzy or Vondrell are at TB, then Ogbonnaya is free to play the inner WR (pseudo TE). This frees up Ship to play outside WR. This means that Ship takes hits from DBs instead of LBs, which is good for his health.

With Ogbonnaya at pseudo TE, he can:

• chip block the DE for more effective pass blocking by the OT on the DE,
• block an OLB on a wide run by the TB (hello, Fozzy)
• block a DB on a two man screen
• block an OLB or safety when Colt rolls out.
• downfield blocking

The blocking outside improves tremendously with Ogbonnaya at pseudo TE which means that:

• two WR screens,
• outside running by TBs,
• longer pass patterns,
• Colt rolling out

all will be more viable plays against Mizzou.

Ogbonnaya should also be able to go across the middle for passes effectively and with much less risk than for Ship.

The main reason to play Ogbonnaya at TB is not that he is a better runner than Fozzy or Cody but that he can handle the pressure better, is a better pass receiver and better at picking up blitzes (than Fozzy, anyway. Cody seems to be a fine blocker already). Since Colt does not throw to his TBs that much, Ogbonnaya will probably catch a lot more passes.at pseudo TE than at TB.

For the same reasons that Ogbonnaya is so valuable at pseudo TE, Malcolm Williams would be valuable as the pseudo TE on the other side. Malcolm is a big strong guy who is an order of magnitude better blocker than Collins, Kirkendoll, or Buckner. Since the young WRs get so few passes thrown their way, it would be much better to pick a young WR who is an excellent blocker like Malcolm than the much weaker Collins, Buckner or Kirkendoll. That 4th WR position might get 3 passes thrown its way the whole game but will have to block on more than 60 plays.

Mizzou is not as fast as OU on D (who is?) and will probably not blitz as effectively as OU (especially with Ogbonnaya and Malcolm chip blocking DEs into the OTs). UT should be able to attempt longer passes and not be forced to throw so many short passes. These passes should be thrown mostly to Quan and Ship so it would be best if these two did not have to worry too much about blocking.

With superior blocking at pseudo TE, Colt should be able to roll out more to his right (since the pseudo TE can block the LB or safety who will be trying to force Colt to his left). This will buy time for longer pass patterns, will give Colt opportunities to run outside, and will be a great setup for reverses.

With improved blocking by the pseduo TEs (inside WRs), the horns should be able to run a much more diverse set of plays vs Mizzou than vs OU and also run the ball more effectively.

Running 4 WRs does not mean that UT has to completely sacrifice the physical game. By putting Ogbonnaya and Malcolm at pseudo TE (and Cody or Fozzy or Vondrell at TB), the horns’ O becomes much richer and thus less predictable.