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Colt's Completion Percentage - History in the making

I'm about as big of a Colt supporter as you can find around here, but even I thoroughly believed he could not keep up his performance once we got to conference games.  When are you completing 4 out of every 5 passes, no team is going to stop you.  It doesn't matter if they are short, long, or in between, you can score on anyone.

Then we came into conference play, and so far so good.  Colt is actually completing a higher percentage of his passes now (82%) than he did when we had Irby and were playing the weaker schedule (80%).

I still don't think it can last, history tells us its not possible, but then, you look at what we have ahead and who is behind, and begin to wonder if that is true.  The highest completion percentage in the history of the NCAA was Dante Culpepper in 1998 with 73.6%, who beat Steve Young's 15 year record of 71.3%.   Stephan Lefours came very close to Dante with a 73.54%, but the record still stands.

Assuming Colt throws the same average number of passes per game as he has through the first 7, he only needs to complete 63.12% of his passes from here on out, and he will set the single season record (excluding whoever else is challenging it this year as well).

You read that right, if he only completes 63.12% of his passes against defenses such as Baylor, aTm, TTech, Kansas, and OSU, he will set the single season mark and against a real bonafide quality schedule.

How likely is it that Colt will dip so very low?

In his 33 games as a starter, Colt has gone below 63.12% passing only 6 times. His second game ever as a college QB against tOSU (59.4%).  Then against OU, and aTm in 2006, he had 61.1% and 60.7%.

Three games in 2007 saw him below 65%.  One was the unquestionably abysmal K-State game (48.7%), that I still shake my head over, the others were the  Aggie loss (53.1%) and the Nebraska fiasco (42.9%). 

In 27 of his 33 games played at the collegiate level, he has been over 63.12% accurate.

Here as well is what the opposing defenses we have left are giving up, on average:

OSU - 56.5%

Ttech - 63.4%

BU - 61.8%

KU - 55.12%

aTm - 67.9%

Average - 60.94%

Teams we have already played average - 58.18%

Teams already played, minus Colts beatdown of them - 55.08%

So keep your eyes open folks, Colt is making history right in front of them.

Star-divide

Edit:  As noted in the comments, the Conference Championship game and the Bowl game will most likely be counted toward his statistical totals.

This changes to make Colt need to complete 66% of his passes throughout the next 7 games (assuming we win the South) to beat Dante's mark in 14 games played, averaging as many throws per game as he has thus far.

This number is still well within his reach given the data shown above, and that Colts career completion percentage is above the 66% average (69.5%), even if you dont count this years ridiculous totals (66.4%).

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Dammit Boddicker

Don’t you know that stats are for losers?!?!?!!!

Seriously, nice job, dude. Very innerstin’ stuff!

It's Mean to Ween

by Bombilla on Oct 21, 2008 9:46 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

After the game is played

Stats are for the losers, who try to find moral victories in the numbers. Before games, stats are for analysis and study.

What hes doing so far is really beyond anyones expectations, its almost inhuman. The only place you could possibly hope for that high a completion percentage through this far is on the moon (I hear its hard to do this against air…).

by BoddickerIsClutch on Oct 21, 2008 10:09 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

That's some damn fine

Statistical breakfast right there.

Friends may come and go, but enemies accumulate.
- Thomas Jones

by beast in bama on Oct 21, 2008 9:50 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Bowl Game

Are you counting a potential bowl game in the 56%?

Its likely that whatever bowl team we play will have a better-than-average defense, so it would skew that 56% number up.

Or do they not count bowl games in passing % records?

by pleaseplaykindle on Oct 21, 2008 9:57 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

I didnt count bowl or Big 12 Championship

I think the season record is just for the regular season, but I could be wrong.

If you count both those games, he has to average 66% completion over the next 7 games to break the record.

Good news is, that 23/33 games still holds him at over 65% (close enough) and his career completion percentage is well over 66%.

The way our offense is running right now, Id be surprised if he doesn’t have at least 2 more games at well over 70% as well.

by BoddickerIsClutch on Oct 21, 2008 10:05 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

According to the NCAA

Bowl game statistics are counted against all statistical totals. That policy was enacted just a few years ago, as I recall.

Friends may come and go, but enemies accumulate.
- Thomas Jones

by beast in bama on Oct 21, 2008 10:07 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I suppose it would follow that the Championship game would be counted as well

If it was just a few years, then Dante’s record wouldnt have included it. Oh well, Ill revise the post to point that out.

by BoddickerIsClutch on Oct 21, 2008 10:11 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Great post

Thanks, BIC

--PB--

by Peter Bean on Oct 21, 2008 10:36 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

I figured

Colt’s passing pctg. was on a record pace, but I had no idea it was THAT good. I don’t see how it’s possible, factoring in all the elements involved in completing passes -- play calls, communication, defensive switches and skill, protection, weather elements, drops. Every QB, of course, has some of his passes dropped; I bet one-third of Colt’s drops this year were flat misses by the receiver.

I have to believe some of Chris O’s recent success is the result of defenses scrambling all over the field to say close to No. 6 and No. 8 and their cohorts.

Thanks for the time spent in compiling all the numbers.

by edsp on Oct 21, 2008 10:40 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Whats amazing to me

Is that it seems to be getting better, not worse. In the two games people most expected Texas to lose, Colt completed first 80% against OU and then ninety freaking point six percent against Mizzou.

I don’t care how soft someones defense is, or what scheme you are running, you don’t throw the ball 32 times and complete 29 of them.

I don’t see how anyone can keep this up, its truly that amazing what he is doing. But then again, I couldn’t imagine he would keep it up, or even improve over the past two weeks either.

The remaining opponents on average allow 5% more completions than the teams that Colt went for 81.2% against. You gotta like those odds.

by BoddickerIsClutch on Oct 21, 2008 10:55 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think that a lot of credit also has to go our receivers.

They’re making some absolutely sick catches. With average receivers, Colt’s numbers aren’t nearly as good.

by Meekrob on Oct 21, 2008 11:29 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Its a team effort for sure

And I have definitely under-appreciated Quan the past few years. The man has hands made of contact cement. Hell Quan has turned 3 pass interference calls into completions. Thats unreal.

There’s also credit to the O-line to give him time, and the running game for keeping everyone honest. Not to mention the D to get the offense back on the field (4th in the nation in TOP) and keep them in rhythm.

I don’t mean to imply that Colt is doing this in a black box at all, but hes the one who is going to get the record should it come to pass, even though the entire team helped him to it.

If there is one theme for this year, its that the team is gelling like mad, and that is what is producing these mad mad numbers. Still its up to Colt to put the ball in position that a catch can be made, obviously at that point its up to the receivers to get it, and so far everyone has been phenomenal.

by BoddickerIsClutch on Oct 21, 2008 11:36 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Good Decisions

Such a high percentage is a credit to the line and to the receivers, but mostly to just good decision making- Colt will very rarely throw a ball into good coverage. There are a few that Quan has saved, and Malcolm Williams saved one for him last game as well… But he’ll make every open pass that is given to him, and make a run if there’s nothing available. Very straightforward logic, but no one has ever really executed it on the field as well as we’ve seen this season.

by Tackchevy on Oct 21, 2008 1:21 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Even better ...

… in years past, I would have said, “Of course he’s completing a high percentage. He only throws high-percentage passes.” You know, the old-fashioned horizontal game and short dump-off passes.

Not the case this year, with the new and improved game plan. He’s hitting them all – 8 yards, 20 yards and more.

Colt is the man.

Watch out, I bite.

by EddieTheAlbinoSquirrel on Oct 21, 2008 1:41 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Don't look back

McCoy had better not let up, since Chase Daniels is still hitting over 75% as well.

Before you criticize someone, walk a mile in their shoes. If they get mad, you're a mile away AND you have their shoes.

by Caradoc on Oct 21, 2008 2:20 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

check your math..

he’s thrown 197 pass attempts in 7 games, that’s 28.143 pass attempts per game.

there are 5 games left, 5 * 28.143 passes is 140.715 passes left to attempt.

140.715 passes to attempt + 197 passes attempted = 337.715 total passes to attempt this season.

to hit 73.6% of those total passes he needs to complete 248.558 passes.

since he’s already completed 160, he needs to complete 248.558-160 = 88.558 passes.

assuming he completes 88.558 passes, and since he has 140.715 passes left to attempt.

 that is 62.93% required for the rest of the season to break even with the record.

by Displaced Longhorn on Oct 21, 2008 3:43 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

62.93% was the required % for only the regular season

your updated stat of 66% is correct for the added bowls (+2 games), it comes out to ~65.98%

by Displaced Longhorn on Oct 21, 2008 4:08 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Good call

Dunno what my error was originally…

by BoddickerIsClutch on Oct 21, 2008 4:21 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

it’s all good, you got it right in the new one.

by Displaced Longhorn on Oct 21, 2008 4:27 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Fixed the original calc.

Not that it matters if the record includes bowls and all.

I get 63.12% of his passes, or more accurately, 89 completions in the next 141 throws, since he cant throw fractions.

by BoddickerIsClutch on Oct 21, 2008 4:35 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Colt owes a big thanks to his wide receiver entourage as well.

Not to take anything away from Colt’s excellence this year because he has been nothing short of amazing. In fact, I think we all can agree that 2 of the INTs he has thrown were the fault of Buckner and Ullman.

Overall though, players like Cosby, Shipley, and Ogbonnaya are doing a damn good job securing the passes that come their way. It looks sometimes like a bunch of infielders trying to protect Colt’s no hitter.

"I asked Darrell Royal, the coach of the Texas Longhorns, why he didn’t recruit me and he said: "Well, Walt, we took a look at you and you weren’t any good.
- Walt Garrison

by 512 on Oct 22, 2008 8:55 AM CDT reply actions   1 recs

Thought this was fun to point out.

If you are wondering why Colt is only #4 in QB rating, you can blame Roy Miller or Jordan Shipley for it.

Colt currently sits ranked fourth at 190.76
Bradford holds the number two spot with 192.2
Zac Robinson is in between them at 191.1 (come see me after Saturday).

If Roy Miller catches the TD lob Colt threw, Colts Rating would have been 192.86 (assuming it went for 2 yards).
If Shipley’s stays up a second longer after Quan’s monster block and gets the TD, Colt’s rating would be 192.44

by BoddickerIsClutch on Oct 22, 2008 11:21 AM CDT reply actions   1 recs

Nice one. You should make a seperate fan post called, "What If" Great insight!

"I asked Darrell Royal, the coach of the Texas Longhorns, why he didn’t recruit me and he said: "Well, Walt, we took a look at you and you weren’t any good.
- Walt Garrison

by 512 on Oct 22, 2008 1:31 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

What would his QB rating be if Ullman hadn't knocked the ball into the air...

for an INT with his bricks for hands?

If you combine the previously two mentioned and subtract at least one INT, then what would the QB rating be?

I’ll be honest. I have no idea on how to figure this stuff out.

"I asked Darrell Royal, the coach of the Texas Longhorns, why he didn’t recruit me and he said: "Well, Walt, we took a look at you and you weren’t any good.
- Walt Garrison

by 512 on Oct 22, 2008 1:33 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Good one!

191.78 if Ullman just knocks it down. Which is good enough for 3rd place, but not to top Bradford.

Now if you instead assume it was a 4 yard completion instead of an interception, then Colts rating becomes 192.45, which is good enough to top Sam!

by BoddickerIsClutch on Oct 22, 2008 1:53 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Update

Setting the mark at 73.6% and assuming he continues to average the number of passes per game as he has through the first 8…

To finish the regular season above 73.6, Colt needs to complete in the last 4 games: 57.9
To finish the year and get the record, Colt needs to complete in the last 6 games: 63.2%

Teams remaining Pass Allowance:
TTech – 63.25%
BU – 63.1%
KU – 58.61%
aTm – 66.5%
Average – 62.87%

Teams we have already played average – 60.3%
Teams average minus Colt’s numbers – 57.58%

Yes I made a spreadsheet this time, so hopefully the math is not only correct, but repeatable!

by BoddickerIsClutch on Oct 27, 2008 2:03 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

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