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Oklahoma State Preview, Part 1: Rush Offense

While most of the Big 12 preseason pub this year went to Texas Tech, Oklahoma, and Missouri, the Cowboys lingered well behind even Texas-In-A-Projected-Down-Year in terms of attention and/or projected strength; even among Blog Poll voters, only five of us included the Pokes on our preseason Top 25 ballots. Oklahoma State's 7-0 start has completely surprised the college football world. So who are these Cowboys and what should Texas fans expect on Saturday night?

Unsurprisingly, the best place to start might be Matt Hinton's former home at Sunday Morning QB, where in  previewing Oklahoma State during June he concluded the Cowboys could be the surprise team from the Big 12 South:

Non-Binding Forecast: A Six-Shooter Between Your Eyes or Bust. I’m a little surprised this team has received no top 25 love whatsoever – iffy record notwithstanding, it was a couple points away from nine wins last year and looks like the perfect "sleeper" bet with the likely stars on offense and promises of a revamped, readymade infusion bringing the perpetually lame D up to par. I’m not sure you’d have to be a sucker to take it, either. The defense may be too far away to put the Oklahoma-Texas hold on the South in question, but if they can take one of the four tough Big 12 road games – at Missouri, at Texas, at Texas Tech, at Colorado – I think the Cowboys are throttling their way to an eight-win regular season. At the very least, I’d be careful before I swallowed the unanimous nodding toward Texas Tech as the presumed upstart in the division.

Time will tell how Oklahoma State's story ends, but this is the week for Texas fans to take a close look as we prepare for our third straight terrifying opponent on the schedule. Starting tonight and concluding Friday, we'll spend a day on each component of the 2008 Cowboys', beginning after the jump with Part 1: OSU's Rush Offense.

Star-divide

OKLAHOMA STATE RUSH OFFENSE

I get the sense that the national perception of Oklahoma State is like that of a one-hit wonder band: Ask the average fan what they know about the Cowboys and the answer's likely to be, "Aren't they real good at running the ball?"

They are.

OSU 2008 SEASON RUSHING STATS


Att/Gm Yards/Gm Yards/Att TDs
2008 Stats 51.3 283.1 5.52 24
B12 Rank 1 1 2 1
Natl Rank 4 5 10 5

Oklahoma State's offense is far from one-dimensional, but it's appropriate we start our breakdown with their rushing attack--the million man army of their frighteningly explosive offensive capabilities. In truth, we're concerned with just four, but it's important to emphasize this isn't a Barry Sanders Show kind of attack; the Cowboys get meaningful contributions from three tailbacks as well as quarterback Zac Robinson:

OSU'S FOUR HORSEMEN: SEASON TOTALS

Player Class Recruited Rivals Attempts Yards Average TDs
Kendall Hunter SO 2007 151 955 6.3 9
Keith Toston JR 2006 65 487 7.5 7
Beau Johnson JR 2008 42 276 6.3 2
Zac Robinson JR 2005 68 317 4.7 5

That's three tailbacks with rushing rates that would garner all-conference recognition if sustained for 300 carries. However, not only is it hard to conceive of this (or any) group sustaining that kind of production over a full season, but a close look at the Cowpokes' rushing splits in non-con vs Big 12 play shows a significant drop in production. After OSU ran roughshod over Washington State, Houston, SW Missouri State, and Troy to start the year, their first three conference games have seen the rush production slow considerably.

OSU'S FOUR HORSEMEN: BIG XII PLAY

Player Attempts Yards Average TDs
Hunter 71 337 4.8 1
Toston 24 119 5.0 2
Johnson 5 14 2.8 2
Robinson 38 184 4.8 3

Human after all.

What changed? First, the distribution has shifted: Highly touted JuCo transfer Beau Johnson has faded from the regular mix as "Spud" Hunter has become the tailback Mike Gundy trusts most with the football. Second, the overall production has slowed considerably. Despite what you've heard about Big 12 defenses this season, they're not quite as bad as many of their poor performance numbers suggest; at the least, A&M, Missouri, and Baylor have had athletes strong enough to deny Oklahoma State record-setting rushing numbers. (Tuesday moment of schadenfreude: If the preceding isn't much of an endorsement, it's as close to a compliment as Mike Sherman has received this season.)

Mike_sherman_medium
We're not far from this day. Really.

Though video game rushing numbers may be a relic of OSU's cupcakey non-conference season, the Cowboys haven't exactly struggled to run the ball in Big 12 play, and it's only fair to note that they pulled on the reins after building big leads against both A&M and Baylor. Moreover, through three conference games, the Cowboys lead the Big 12 in rushing attempts (148) and yards (621); their 4.19 yards per carry ranks third. Even at a significantly retarded pace they're still pounding the ball on the ground effectively.

This Saturday, however, they'll face their first truly ferocious defense as Brian Orakpo, Roy Miller, Lamarr Houston, and Henry Melton replace four man fronts comprised of two- and three-star players Mack Brown declined to offer. And that might be a problem for OSU's five starting offensive linemen... who Mack Brown similarly declined to offer.

Position Player Class Rivals Height Weight
LT Russell Okung
JR 6-5 305
LG Andrew Lewis
JR 6-5 285
C David Washington
SR 6-3 302
RG Steve Denning
SR 6-4 296
RT Brady Bond
JR 6-7 290

The group has been unquestionably effective in 2008, but rushing against Texas on Saturday may prove to be as or more challenging as it has the past two seasons (80 yards on 21 carries in 2006; 164 yards on 45 attempts a year ago). Not that Zac Robinson is terribly concerned: Where two years ago in Austin Bobby Reid crumbled without substantial rush support, last year Robinson waxed the Longhorns in Stillwater by completing 30 of 42 passes for 430 yards and 2 scores.

Whatever the popular perception, this Oklahoma State offense is no one-hit wonder. They can run the football against the weak but have the balance to attack through the air, whether or not the run game is picking up yards. In Part 2 we discuss Zac Robinson, Dez Bryant and that OSU passing game.

Wednesday: OSU Pass Offense
Thursday: OSU Rush Defense
Friday: OSU Pass Defense

0 recs  |  Comment 13 comments |

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some of the rankings of their opponents and the results of the game in terms of rushing yards…

washington st #118 252yd/g
houston #105 197yd/g
missouri state NR NR
troy #73 151yd/g
texas a&m #112 223yd/g
missouri #33 110yd/g
baylor #58 134yd/g

the teams they’ve played have been extremely soft in terms of rush defense this year, and as noted in the posting, the running backs production has almost been halved. and they’re coming into town against the #3 rush defense in the nation. their backs aren’t going to know what hit them.

by Displaced Longhorn on Oct 22, 2008 12:43 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Yes, Longhorn

Yes, OSU does not have a running attack like the UTEP miners, who ran for almost 150 yards on you. This is kind of like all the SEC teams who praise their defenses, but their offenses suck eggs and can not put up numbers. Mizzou’s rush defense was second in the nation before the OSU game. After Mizzou played OSU and TX, it plummeted.

by Okie on Oct 23, 2008 8:13 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

mizzou was averaging 100yd/g when you faced them, now i don’t know what that would rank them at week 4/5, but currently that would put them at about #18.

after the OSU game they were ranked #33. after texas, #45.

i didn’t say you weren’t going to run on texas, i’m just saying you haven’t faced a defense like ours..

by Displaced Longhorn on Oct 23, 2008 9:00 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

they'll still try and run

if they become one dimensional…well we saw what happened to Mizzou last weekend. I’m not worried about this game. We always seem to win against Okie St. no matter what the half time score may read. They don’t have the defense to slow us down. We’re playing too well to lose now… next week on the other hand, in Lubbock, scares me to death.

by clra2 on Oct 22, 2008 12:55 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

As long as your views don't mirror those of the team, I'm happy.

I say this out of obligation of superstition. Worry about this one, then the next one, and so on and so forth.

by HornPossessed on Oct 22, 2008 1:10 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

yep, I agree

Hell, I’m even gonna worry about the aggies during turkey week!

but I wonder what they seriously expect if Baylor gave them a run for their money. Rak is gonna chew Zak Robinson up and spit him out midfield. Hope they bring lots of ice and tylenol, ’cause this is gonna hurt in the morning …

"When you get to the end zone, act like you've been there before."

by txex92 on Oct 22, 2008 4:17 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

We have rushed more effectively in conference than OSU

So before anyone freaks out about their running game, think of ours and know, we have done it better.

I pointed out the numbers here but didnt look at the opponents defenses, so Ill do that now.

BU, Mizzou, and Aggy against CU, OU, and Mizzou.

Baylor is about 10 spots lower than CU in scoring D and Total D, CU is about 10 spots lower than Baylor in rushing D. We played CU in Boulder, OSU played Baylor in Stillwater. Id call it a draw here, but probably slight edge to CU.

OU is 67 spots higher than aTm in scoring D, 67 spots higher in Total D, and 74 spots higher in rushing D. We played OU in Dallas, OSU had Aggy at home. Major advantage to UT.

Mizzou is Mizzou, OSU played at their place though, and we had them at home. Id say that difference negates the BU/CU slight advantage.

So with the difference in our schedules in conference being OU vs Aggy, we have rushed more effectively. We have also picked up a ton more first downs and third downs, and coughed the ball up less. OSU also has at least one fumble lost in each of its last three games.

I expect another beatdown this Saturday. This team showed last week that it can stay focused and hungry, I expect to see that again. And OSU’s running totals, will continue to plummet.

by BoddickerIsClutch on Oct 22, 2008 8:34 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

To take it a step further

Great job of showing how each have done against their respective opponents. The next question in this comparison is how good of a defense is each offense going to face in THIS game.

OSU’s rushing offense, which Boddicker established has performed about the same as ours against lower competition, will be facing the top ranked rushing defense in the conference. Our defense this season is giving up 48 ypg and a mere 1.6 ypc.

UT’s rushing offense will be facing the 5th ranked rushing defense in the conference, which has given up 117 ypg and 4.0 ypc.

Against our only common opponent OSU gave up 64 yards and 3.6 ypc, while rushing for 187 yards on 4.3 ypc, and UT gave up 30 yards on 1.6 ypc, while rushing for 203 yards on 5.1 ypc.

Just based on those stats (which I acknowledge are for losers), you’d expect us to be able to run the ball better than OSU in this game.

Having said all that, their offense has the ability to be very balanced and has quite a few big-time weapons, which scares the hell out of me.

by Horncasting on Oct 22, 2008 9:55 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I don’t mean to “be-downgrade” OSU’s running attack. However, for as many questions as I have had about the Texas D over the course of the past 3 years one thing that has remained constant is TExas’ ability to stuff the run. I don’t expect that to change. My biggest concern deals with the mobility of Robinson, and also Dez Bryant and Pettigrew.

Should be an intreresting game – I haven’t quite decided what I expect to happen

by andmyster on Oct 22, 2008 8:45 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

words words words…OSU…words words words…significantly retarded

OK, I think I’m ready for this game.

by gunmonkey on Oct 22, 2008 8:52 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Jump on them early

All analysis aside we need to jump on them early like we did Missou. This is not the same Okie State team we’ve played before. If we get down by two TD’s again this year we will lose.

by B12 on Oct 22, 2008 10:45 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

4-3 vs nickel

I think that UT mostly will play 4-3 vs OSU and play nickel only in obvious passing situations. What do you think?

by Kafka on Oct 23, 2008 5:28 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

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