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Oklahoma State Preview, Part 2: Passing Offense

We continue our OSU preview with a day-late look at the Cowboys' passing offense. As emphasized in Part 1 of this preview series, whatever perception exists about Oklahoma State being a one-dimensional team, the truth is that this team runs and passes equally well--their diversity preventing teams shutting down the Cowboys merely by overloading to stop the run or the pass.

As such, analyzing OSU's rush or pass offense in isolation is of limited utility; since Part 1 looked exclusively at their rush game, after the jump I take a macro look at the Cowboys' offensive success so far in 2008. Each scoring drive for the season is charted by number of plays in the drive, yards covered, TD type, and scoring player. Southwest Missouri State is excluded as irrelevant.

A synopsis and game analysis follows the data.

Star-divide

Charts? Charts.

Opp. Drive Plays Drive Yds Score Type Score Yds Player
WSU 8 17 FG 26
8 67 RUSH 11 Hunter
11 56 FG 21
4 8 FG 27
KO Return 90 Cox
9 61 RUSH 1 Robinson
4 39 RUSH 10 Hunter
Opp. Drive Plays Drive Yds Score Type Score Yds Player
HOU 3 80 RUSH 58 Hunter
8 80 PASS 39 Bryant
4 75 RUSH 28 Toston
3 31 PASS 29 Bryant
3 86 PASS 74 Bryant
10 82 RUSH 10 Hunter
9 62 RUSH 5 Toston
Punt Return 71 Bryant
Opp. Drive Plays Drive Yds Score Type Score Yds Player
TROY 11 67 PASS 16 Bryant
9 54 RUSH 4 Hunter
9 74 PASS 26 Bryant
5 76 PASS 44 Bryant
4 56 RUSH 17 Hunter
11 99 RUSH 1 Toston
11 74 FG 22
16 65 FG 19
2 19 RUSH 16 Toston
Opp. Drive Plays Drive Yds Score Type Score Yds Player
A&M INT Return 6
6 56 PASS 29 Bryant
Punt Return 78 Bryant
INT Return 22
7 62 PASS 23 Bryant
5 68 RUSH 6 Robinson
3 37 PASS 21 Bryant
12 77 RUSH 7 Robinson
Opp. Drive Plays Drive Yds Score Type Score Yds Player
MU 13 71 RUSH 6 Robinson
2 72 RUSH 68 Hunter
4 66 PASS 40 Davis
3 29 PASS 31 Davis
Opp. Drive Plays Drive Yds Score Type Score Yds Player
BU 11 61 RUSH 4 Toston
4 62 PASS 37 Bryant
12 81 PASS 9 Bryant
11 47 RUSH 2 Toston
8 61 FG 20
9 64 FG 21

That's a lot of data. So how about some... More charts? More charts.

Score Type: FG Rush Pass ST Def
7 17 13 3 2
Drive Plays: 1-5 6-10 11+
15 12 10
TD Distance: 1-10 11-20 21+
12 4 13
TD By: Hunter Robinson Toston Bryant Davis
7 4 6 13 2

Had enough charting yet? Yes? Very well, let's move on to the...

ANALYSIS

The point of plotting all this out was to look at how OSU's been putting up 40+ points per game this year. We don't really care how they scored against SW Missouri State, but looking at their scoring distribution by type, distance, etc against their D1 opponents offers some insight into how the Pokes are getting it done. To the bullet points:

  • Dez Bryant is killing OSU opponents via the big play, with 2 punt returns for TDs (71 and 78 yards) and 11 TDs, all but 2 of which have gone for 20 yards or more--39, 29, 74, 16, 26, 44, 29, 23, 21, 37, and 9. You don't need to wait for Horn Brain or BZ to tell you that averages to a big number--34.5 yards per TD reception. 
  • The Cowboys can sustain drives, with more than a handful of 11+ scoring drives. However, only 5 of those drives have come in Big 12 play, and 3 were against Baylor. Can OSU sustain scoring drives against a team with a nasty rush defense? The Missouri game suggests "no"--that was a game won with big plays (see first chart above).
  • Special teams will matter.  The Pokes have picked up three additional scores from kickoff and punt returns. As the Sooners found out in Dallas this year, that can change everything. And Texas fans need only think back to the KSU game last year to remember the pain that can accompany poor return coverage.
  • The OSU passing game lives and dies with Bryant.  Not charted above is the Cowboys passing game for the season, but check out the receiver distribution in the team's season box score: Bryant leads the team with 45 receptions and  Brandon Pettigrew has the second most with... 11.
  • Chykie Brown is the player to watch. At 6-1 and playing the best football of any Texas CB, Chykie is likely the one to be on Bryant's jock Saturday afternoon. He'll have safety help, no doubt, but his ability to frustrate Bryant will be the match up of the day.
  • To bump of not to bump?  Given OSU's dependance on the big play, if you were Will Muschamp would you jam Bryant at the line of scrimmage to slow down the time it takes him to get downfield? Probably depends on whether Texas pass rush is killing the OSU offensive line; if they are, Robinson will be forced to get the ball out quickly and turn elsewhere for yardage.
  • Safety discipline is critical.  Mike Gundy will try repeatedly to fool Texas' young safeties into over-committing to rush support while Bryant and Damiam Davis streak deep. If Thomas or Gideon bite at the wrong time, our corners will be left one-on-one with the scariest receiver in the Big 12, if not country.
  • It's all moot if: Texas D-Line demolishes the Cowboys up front. We can talk tactics all day, but if OSU can't rush the ball or give Robinson a little time to work some play action, the Cowboys are not likely to march methodically for 10-15 plays against this defense. No, that was what I feared Missouri might be able to do. If they can't, OSU won't, either.

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Big 12 Football Report, v 1.9

Oct 2008 by PB @ BON - 14 comments

Comments

Display:

More charts? More charts

Yes, we want more.

Seriously, does your day have 27 hours? Great work. Thanks for the care and feeding of us hungry lambs.

by edsp on Oct 23, 2008 3:45 PM CDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Scoring by Quarters

I think the first quarter will tell the story in this one, much like last week.

OSU has not give up more than 7 points in the first quarter all year, and only gave up that much twice.

If Texas comes out and pops them in the mouth behind a rowdy home crowd (Ill be there screaming my head off!) we will force them into a situation they haven’t been in before, and hopefully we will be in their heads with our history.

If we dont jump out on them in the first quarter, or they hold serve, it could be dog fight.

by BoddickerIsClutch on Oct 23, 2008 4:17 PM CDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I can't see...

OSU stopping colt…He’s way to accurate… all those quick slants and throws…

I gurantee you mack has already reminded them of the past 3 game they have had..Starting Unbelievibly slow…

by mccoy12 on Oct 23, 2008 4:38 PM CDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

pass defense

washington st #46
houston #81
missouri state NR
troy #51
A&M #61
missouri #115
baylor #79

not the strongest, not the weakest (except for missouri), some run of the mill pass defenses.

dez bryant has 45 catches, pettigrew 11. however pettigrew has also had an ankle injury the last 4 games, look for him to either be shaking off the rust, or surprising defenders who don’t expect him to get the ball much.

by Displaced Longhorn on Oct 23, 2008 4:55 PM CDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Sorry to sound like a complete noob, but

What are the pros and cons of bumping/not bumping a wr at the line

by Egonz on Oct 23, 2008 5:04 PM CDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

bump coverage

a good bump coverage slows the wide reciever down at the line of scrimmage, which in turn gives your pass rush more time to get to the qb….

If you have a bad bump, and the wide reciever gets behind coverage…say hello to lots and lots of yardage…

by mccoy12 on Oct 23, 2008 5:12 PM CDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Jamming

If the receiver is jammed at the LOS, it really screws up the timing of the play. If the pass rush is excellent (which will probably be the case), then the QB would like to get rid of the ball quickly to neuter the pass rush. If UT can effectively jam Bryant, then it will be very tough to complete that short pass to Bryant.

The relative speed of Bryant compared to the horn covering him matters a whole bunch. When the WR is faster than the DB, it is really risky and difficult to try to jam the WR. When the WR is significantly slower than the DB, it is easier to jam and to recover after the jam is defeated. Bryant runs a 4.58 40 on average, according to NFLDraft. Chykie Brown runs a 4.42 40 on average. Chykie is quite a bit faster than Bryant (who outweighs Chykie by 25 pounds). Chykie will need to not let the bigger Bryant knock him off balance.

I think the horns should jam Bryant.

OSU throws a lot of jump balls to Bryant. I anticipate that the horns end up tipping some of these passes and that this will lead to at least one interception for the horns.

My guess is that the horns play mostly 4-3, except on obvious passing downs.

I will be very interested to see how UT defends Pettigrew. If UT defends Pettigrew with a safety, Pettigrew will probably grab a bunch of passes. He is just too big and strong for a safety (unless UT has some monster safeties I have not see yet).

by Kafka on Oct 23, 2008 5:50 PM CDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

concurrence

I concur. I think it’s likely that they cover Pettigrew with Muckelroy underneath and a safety over the top. This is what finally worked against Jermaine Gresham of OU and slowed Chase Coffman in the first half of the Missouri game. I think the key to the game is if Texas can double over Bryant in the key spots and bump Davis at the line in single coverage short but safety help if he goes deep. PB’s chart shows quite clearly that the Cowboys rely heavily on “throwing it up” to Bryant or Davis.

by burnt in ny on Oct 24, 2008 6:12 AM CDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Containing Drives....

“Can OSU sustain scoring drives against a team with a nasty rush defense? The Missouri game suggests "no”—that was a game won with big plays (see first chart above)."

Kendall Hunter still had 154 yards on the ground…. Not everything from our offense is a big play, Dez’s TDs are always long yardage scores because he is big, fast, physical and is very good with jump balls. (35 inch vertical)

If you want to use stats, lets look at the rushing offenses that makes yall’s rushing defense “nasty”.

Florida Atl…..86th
UTEP………..73rd
Rice………….87th
Arkansas…….71st
Colorado…….70th
ou……………49th
Mizzou………58th

thats not impressive either…

The Blogosphere has finally made it to Stillwater!!! Come comment.

PokesPride.Blogspot.com

by PokesPride on Oct 23, 2008 7:25 PM CDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Well if we go down this path...

We could sit here all day and mention how inflated your rushing stats are for the season because of the D-II Missouri State game (450 yards) while all your other games have been fairly inconsistent in terms of rushing yards (with your best rushing games against two of the worst rush defenses in D-1: Wash. St. and A&M). Okie Lite has not broken 200 yards in any other game, all against very mediocre rush defenses.

by HornPossessed on Oct 23, 2008 8:20 PM CDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

florida atl – averaging 107yds held to 37yds
utep – averaging 146yds held to 145yds
rice – averaging 120yds held to 17yds
arkansas – average 115yds held to 11yds
colorado – averaging 114yds held to 49yds
oklahoma – averaging 151yds held to 48yds
missouri – averaging 171yds held to 30yds

texas’ run d is currently 2nd, last year they finished 6th, the year before 3rd. see a trend? i realize that the ranking is partially inflated (considering ooc games, sacks etc), but at the same time, they just held oklahoma and missouri to an average 39yds

also, texas’ dline is held down by 4 seniors. if you do not believe they’re proven, you’re foolish.texas’ dline has 4 senior starters…. they were #3 in the nation in rush defense last year.

by Displaced Longhorn on Oct 23, 2008 8:27 PM CDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

The above also

shows that had these teams not played us, many of them would be ranked higher in rushing offense than listed further above.

by tdwalsh on Oct 24, 2008 10:56 AM CDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Might I suggest Histograms?

Instead of the charts of TD scoring play yards, why not show a histogram? They display more information. I’ll put one together soon.

by pleaseplaykindle on Oct 23, 2008 8:13 PM CDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Great Blog

PB @ BON – i really like your analysis, and breaking down of the stats. I made one smart mouth comment to displaced longhorn, and i apologize for that one. no need. anyway, i noticed that the only team that has ran the ball for over 100 yards on TX was UTEP. How did this happen? i looked at the game track, and UTEP’s rushing yards came in the first half when it mattered. i somewhat assume that TX did not take a trip to El Paso seriously. True/False? comments.

by Okie on Oct 23, 2008 8:20 PM CDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

hm? what smart mouth comment? was it removed?

by Displaced Longhorn on Oct 23, 2008 8:28 PM CDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Lamarr Houston, starting DT

was suspended for that game. That had something to do with it.

by billyzane on Oct 23, 2008 9:10 PM CDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Houston and scheme

Houston missed the game and that reduced the penetration in the backfield, but the main culprit was the defensive scheme. Muschamp was protecting the young secondary and had the corners and safeties back in “quarters” (each covering a quarter of the field), and there the LB’s had trouble covering all the gaps. As usual this season, the problem was fixed at halftime.

by burnt in ny on Oct 24, 2008 6:16 AM CDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I’m not here to talk trash. Honestly, I am just sick of OSU being insulted and disrespected. “Okie Lite” might not win this weekend, but they will actually show up and play, unlike Mizzou. We play y’all well every year, only to blow it in the second half. Not saying it ill be like that again this year, but I believe it will be a lot closer than many anticipate.

The Blogosphere has finally made it to Stillwater!!! Come comment.

PokesPride.Blogspot.com

by PokesPride on Oct 23, 2008 9:08 PM CDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

i fully expect a better game from osu than mizzou

by Displaced Longhorn on Oct 23, 2008 9:10 PM CDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

as i recall

Oklahoma State was responsible (by beating the other guys up there) for putting the Horns in the 2001 Big 12 CG. It way late, but thanks for the help.

by edsp on Oct 23, 2008 9:44 PM CDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Forgive me for rolling my eyes, but...

You waltz in here, pick one sentence, remove it from its context, and play the “we ain’t gettin’ no respect” card.

I’ve got a better idea:

1) Go to the BON search bar.
2) Type in “Okie Lite.”
3) Note the paucity of results among articles I’ve written.
4) Return to the search bar.
5) Type in “Oklahoma State.”
6) Read what I’ve written about this team in the last two months.
7) Depart, with tail between legs.

--PB--

by PB @ BON on Oct 23, 2008 10:37 PM CDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

So...

Discussing OSU’s real strengths and weaknesses (as we perceive them) and analyzing how we can overcome them and win is disrespectful. I suppose we’re supposed to freak out and wonder aloud how we can possibly beat the confident Pokes here in Austin to show proper “respect.”

I’m sure there are plenty of Horns fans out there who are treating Okie Lite… uh, lightly, but from I’ve seen here at BON, we realize a dangerous opponent is coming to town. We’re just confident that if we play the way we’re capable of, we’ll beat the Cowboys.

by TheElusiveShadow on Oct 24, 2008 12:17 AM CDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

no kidding

In light of the past few years — the massive scares that were overcome only by insane displays of Horn teamwork or talent — I’d say that most Texas fans give Okie Lite U plenty respect.

by Kool Hand on Oct 24, 2008 6:59 AM CDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Pokes are Classy

…but they have not played the likes of us. This whole build-up reminds me of last week before Mizzou. Sorry, but this will be a shock to them at out level of competitiveness.

…and OU still su*ks, Thanks for the comments, VA Cowboy.

HornBorn55

by HornBorn55 on Oct 24, 2008 9:00 PM CDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

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