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Morning Coffee Is #1 For One More Week

Texas stays atop BCS Standings.  Not that it's a surprise, but the Longhorns will kickoff in Lubbock as the #1 team in the BCS Standings. Texas earned all but a handful of human #1 votes and scored perfect with the computers to maintain their comfortable margin over Alabama and Penn State. As several Texas players said after the 'Horns hard-fought victory over OSU, the brutal schedule is a blessing in that regard--win and they're in.

Texas Tech enters the week #7 in the BCS despite a #5 ranking in both the Harris and Coaches polls--their relatively manageable schedule-to-date hurting them significantly with the computers. Red Raider fans shouldn't lose any sleep over it: If Tech dispatches of Texas, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State in November, the computers will love them dearly.

Bonkers, Part 1. Jordan Shipley and Quan Cosby's numbers this season are getting ridiculous:

Shipley--58 catches, 737 yards, 10 TDs
Cosby--56 catches, 688 yards, 4 TDs

 

Star-divide

 

Bonkers, Part 2.  With his 38-45 performance passing Saturday, Colt McCoy actually managed to better his season completion percentage, which now sits at 81.8 through 8 games. There aren't words to describe this; it's too surreal.

C. Brown x 2.  A week after reminding Texas fans that they had a defensive back as freakishly athletic as Missouri's Jeremy Maclin, sophomore Curtis Brown got his first start in place of the injured Chykie Brown. His reward? An afternoon chasing Dez Bryant, that other superfreak receiver in the conference. Curtis done did good, helping hold OSU's explosive playmaker to just 74 yards on 6 catches--no scores.

With Curtis' arrival, Chykie Brown was able to rest a tender ankle on Saturday, which will help enormously this coming Saturday when both are expected to be at full strength for yet another incredible test--Michael Crabtree and the Red Raiders. It won't be easy, but as Texas hits the home stretch, the young talent that excited fans for a 2009 title run is realizing that potential... except the team has reached November without a defeat. The title run is here, now, in Lubbock on Saturday. Thank God for both C. Browns.

Gazelles rolling.  With their 3-0 sweep of BYU on Friday, the #3-ranked Gregory Gazelles enter Wednesday evening's home contest versus OU on a 10-match winning streak (which includes a 3-1 pounding of the Sooners in Norman). Assuming the Gazelles can stay hot and win their next six (KSU looking like the toughest test), a monster shodown in Austin with 19-0 Nebraska looms as the biggest match of the season.

Quick Hits.  Your best Texas Tech blog destinations this week are at Double T Nation and The Tortilla Retort... Scipio Tex wonders about the implications of MB-TF's awesomeness (My question: why are people still paying $100 a year for Texas news and analysis?)... Adam Jones' Top 10--stellar as always... Sagarin Ratings update: #1 ELO-CHESS (no margin of victory), #4 Predictor (MOV-included), #18 SOS... Dr. Saturday breaks down the BCS race heading forward... Texas opens a 5-point favorite in Vegas.

I'm away traveling the rest of the work day but will be back in time for EDSBS LIVE this evening. Talk to you then.

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Comments

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Has Texas ever had 2 1,000 yard receivers in the same season? I don’t think Roy and BJ ever managed it.

Life is an Occasion. Rise to it.

by patienthornsfan on Oct 27, 2008 4:47 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Roy Williams had two 1000yd. seasons (2002 and 2003). Neither BJ nor Sloan Thomas had one.

by burntorangehorn on Oct 27, 2008 10:04 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Also, Shipley and Cosby need a mere 263 and 322yds. respectively to reach the 1000yd. threshold. That means Shipley needs to average 43.83yds/gm and Cosby needs 52yds/gm., assuming they both play all remaining games including the conference championship. Knock on wood, but I think it’s doable. Here’s hoping Shipley at least pushes the 900 threshold this Saturday at Tech.

Also of note, Shipley is on pace for 101.5 receptions and 17.5 touchdowns on the season, and Cosby’s set for 98 and 7. I’d be really, really happy if they were to keep up the pace. I took this season off of fantasy college football because of my thesis, but they would’ve been steals!

by burntorangehorn on Oct 27, 2008 10:16 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

hehe

Funny. Was recently hired to revamp Univ of Washington’s Athletics Dept page and in my interview they said, ‘we just need to keep up with the Joneses. You knwo, have you seen Texas’ website? We want more of that.’

I’ve got my work cut out for me starting Tuesday

by Blitzburgh on Oct 27, 2008 7:47 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

really?

Cosby has only 4 TDs this year? I thought he had a couple more.

by clra2 on Oct 27, 2008 8:12 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Sagarin Predictor

I do not understand the Sagarin Predictor. USC #1 and Florida #2. I guess blow outs over bad teams are better than somewhat close wins over good teams. Also, I guess close losses to bad teams are better than blowouts of bad teams.

by JohnsonUT on Oct 27, 2008 8:29 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

I with you

and an other thing if all that matters is win loss with ELO-CHESS, then how does a one loss team get in front of a undefeated team?

As far as the predictor goes one 69-0 is better than 3 52-10s

by Xerxes on Oct 27, 2008 9:31 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Public Algortihms

Do any of the computers release their algorithms? Or has anyone thoroughly examined them?

by JohnsonUT on Oct 27, 2008 10:28 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

algorithms

Of the 6 computer ranking systems utilized by the BCS, 5 of them post their algorithms, to some extent, online:
Colley Matrix – http://colleyrankings.com/method.html
Dr. Peter Wolfe – http://prwolfe.bol.ucla.edu/cfootball/descrip.htm
Richard Billingsley – http://www.cfrc.com/Archives/Dynamics_08.htm
Kenneth Massey – http://www.masseyratings.com/theory/index.htm
Sagarin’s explanation is on the article
I couldn’t find the algorithm for Anderson & Hester

by mrbubbles812 on Oct 27, 2008 6:51 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Predictor Ratings

Sagarin’s Predictor Ratings always seem very accurate, but they are far from perfect (as expected from any algorithm). Running up the score against bad opponents can negate bad losses to good opponents.

5-3 Iowa (#10 in Predictor, #56 Elo-Chess)
5-3 Arizona (#13 in Predictor, #61 Elo-Chess)

Definitely no reason to stress about Texas being #4, the strength of the middle part of our schedule hasn’t allowed us to really run up the score (69-0 style).

by K-ram on Oct 27, 2008 4:47 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Dang Colt!

Your completion % is approaching my UT GPA!

by goingforthecorner on Oct 27, 2008 11:05 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Well dont they always say....

Championships are won and lost in November. Well here it is, Part Three of the season. Game of the Year v.4.

by Texas_Fight on Oct 27, 2008 2:07 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

where is Fozzy?

What news of the Whittaker folks? We can’t have our McCoy playing a RB like this.
McCoy gets injured on one of these inside runs and our season may be over.

by hookmhorns on Oct 27, 2008 2:21 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Fozzy

is a freshman. He’s been in two games. He’s been injured.

Mack ain’t gonna put him out there with a game on the line. I hope Fozzy plays this week. In the fourth quarter. Alongside John Chiles and Trey Allen and Dan Buckner. With the score 45-14.

by edsp on Oct 27, 2008 3:23 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

If we need to establish a running game

and the other 3 guys aren’t getting the job done, hopefully Mack will see what he can do.

I don’t think we win this week with the performance we got from the running backs against OSU.

by Horncasting on Oct 27, 2008 4:52 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Fozzy = Urban Legend

He is not playing because Mack cannot trust him. He cannot trust him to pick up the blitz. He cannot trust Fozzy to be fumble free. Fozzy could not demonstrate that he could be counted on because he was hurt. Now it is wait for Baylor to get an opportunity.

by realmccoy on Oct 27, 2008 8:19 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

CBS Strength of Schedule--How dod we rate, pretty good

I was checking out SOS (Strength of Schedule) today and Texas has one of the best (lowest is good)

Strength of Schedule: …………………………………….Ranking :

  1. Purdue, 2-6 overall……………………………………. .. #77
  2. Virginia, 5-3 overall……………………………………. .. #30
  3. Colorado, 4-4 overall …………………………………… #56
  4. Ohio State, 7-2 overall…………………………………. #13
  5. Missouri, 6-2 overall……………………………………. . #14
  6. Texas, 8-0 overall……………………………………. …. # 1
  7. Georgia, 7-1 overall……………………………………. .. # 8
  8. North Carolina, 6-2 overall……………………………… #20
  9. Rutgers, 3-5 overall……………………………………. .. #74
  10. Duke, 4-3 overall……………………………………. …. #66
  11. Oklahoma, 7-1 overall………………………………….. # 4
  12. Arkansas, 3-5 overall…………………………………… #62
  1. Okla State, 7-1 overall…………………………………. # 9
  2. USC, 6-1 overall……………………………………. …… # 7
  3. Florida, 6-1 overall……………………………………. .. # 6
  4. Penn State, 9-0 overall………………………………… # 3
  5. Boise State, 7-0 overall………………………………… #11
  6. Alabama, 8-0 overall……………………………………. # 2
  7. TCU, 8-1 overall……………………………………. …… #12
  8. Texas Tech, 8-0 overall………………………………… # 5
  9. Utah, 8-0 overall……………………………………. ….. #10

by gy2020 on Oct 27, 2008 4:20 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Corrections to previous post

Corrections because copy didn’t work:
Oklahoma State, SOS 22, 7-1 overall…..#9
USC, SOS 23, 6-1 overall…………………….#7
Florida, SOS 32, 6-1 overall………………..#6
Penn State, SOS 54, 9-0 overall…………#3
Boise State, SOS 56, 7-0 overall……….#11
Alabama, SOS 62, 8-0 overall……………#2
TCU, SOS 69, 8-1 overall…………………..#69
Texas Tech, SOS 72, 8-0 overall……….#5
Utah, SOS 83, 8-0 overall………………….#10

by gy2020 on Oct 27, 2008 4:30 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

SOS Misleading In A Way

The one thing that the SOS needs to incorporate is the team’s performance against the tough teams on their schedule. For example, the Buckeyes are #4 in strength of schedule because they played USC and Penn St. But they did not beat either team, and were totally outclassed by the Trojans. The six wins came against non ranked teams. Why do you receive credit for just playing the teams and not beating them.

by realmccoy on Oct 27, 2008 8:17 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

I don't think you really do get credit just for playing.

I think the SOS generally makes sense: Ohio State has a harder schedule so they should be ranked higher than other teams with 2 losses. Oregon State has a really hard schedule compared with other 3 loss teams and should be the highest ranked (except for their loss at Stanford).

What doesn’t make sense to me is how UT, 2-0 vs. top 10 & 3-0 vs. the top 30 has an easier schedule than USC who is 3-1 against the top 30. Maybe the cupcakes have too much bearing on SOS.

by ajax77777 on Oct 27, 2008 9:21 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

USC's strength of schedule is 23, and

Texas’ is 6. Makes sense to me. Here is a link to the CBS rankings website:

http://www.sportsline.com/collegefootball/polls/119

Of the teams in CBS’ top 25, only Ohio State (#4) and Mizzou (#5) have tougher schedules. I can see why Ohio State’s would be tougher, since they play the #1 and #3 teams in the country – Mizzou is a bit of a question mark, however – I don’t see how their schedule is harder than ours.

by longhornglory on Oct 27, 2008 10:09 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

You're misinterpreting what Strength of Schedule means

Strength of schedule is not an indicator of how good your team is. A team can be 0-8 and have the #1 strength of schedule in the country. Strength of Schedule is just an indicator of the strength of the teams you have played, not how you have performed against those teams. You look at SOS as a way to put into context the records and the stats that teams have accumulated.

by billyzane on Oct 28, 2008 10:48 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

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