Morning Coffee Is An Unabashed Loser
A little nicked up. During the weekly MB-TF feature, "From the film room" (sorry can't link it), Greg Davis mentions that he has some nicked up offensive players. Looking at the body language on the field and watching Jordan Shipley limp off after getting his leg twisted under him on a tackle, I have to guess Davis is referring to Shipley, Cosby, and Chris Ogbonnaya. All three of them looked a little slower than normal getting up after plays, not unexpected after such a brutal three-game stretch. Ogbonnaya in particular looked like he lacked his normal burst, possibly the result of the early play against Missouri when he fumbled the football and got up limping.
Part of the issue here is the controlled passing game, which leaves the players vulnerable as they catch balls over the middle. Colt McCoy has done an excellent job not putting his receivers into situations where defenders can really tee of on them, but all of them have taken some hard hits this season. Oklahoma State's secondary provided the physical play expected but not delivered from Missouri. Which leads into the next issue...
Not to our standard. Both phases of the kickoff game have been less than stellar this season. PB raised the question of whether Quan Cosby should be back returning punts and kicks, supporting his position with statistical evidence and concluding that Texas needs more playmaking on special teams. With Cosby rarely coming off the field on offense and starting to look fatigued, the case is stronger than ever to replace him as kick returner. Taking out Shipley's 96-yarder against OU and replacing it with the current average (24.4 yards per return) places Texas at 21.4 yards per return, which would place them in the low 60's nationally. With Curtis Brown playing well on defense and special teams, it's time to give him a chance on kickoff returns.
The kickoff game has been an unmitigated failure the last several weeks, leaving Texas 104th nationally and allowing 24 yards per return, a figure that doesn't even take into account the field position lost with the intentional short and high kicks the last several weeks. Mack Brown dismissed any notions of Justin Tucker having a fatigued leg ($), but did say that some personnel would change on the kickoff unit, notably the reinsertion of Sergio Kindle and other former members of the unit.
Stats are for losers, Part I. And I am an unabashed loser. Mack Brown must be, too. Perhaps the most interesting and most cogent parts of his Monday pressers are the stats he provides. This week was no exception. And so, without further delay, on to the goodies. Texas gave up 217 rushing yards against Oklahoma State, by far the worst performance of the season (145 yards allowed against UTEP), but 66 yards below their season average. Far more distressing were the missed tackles (12) and yards allowed after those missed tackles (125, nearly one-third of the Oklahoma State offense). Most of those yards are attributable no doubt to the impressive Kendall Hunter, who proved to be the hardest player to tackle the defense has faced all season. Kid's good.
On the positive side, the Longhorns converted 11 of 14 third downs (78%, Tulsa leads the nation at 60%), while also winning the explosive play battle 12-8. Despite Zac Robinson only being sacked four times coming into the game, the Longhorns dropped him five times behind the line of scrimmage, while hitting him 12 times and pressuring him four more. In other words, the Longhorns were three mistakes by Colt McCoy (only two ended up hurting him) and some missed tackles from an immensely impressive performance against an excellent football team. As it was, the game went into the "W" column, which is all you can really expect during this gauntlet the team is running.
PS Mack: Don't tell Muschamp what you did in your presser. It's for the best.
Stats are for losers, Part II. I'm just going to keep going here because I can't help myself. Over at The Tortilla Retort, sometimes Barking Carnival contributor dedfischer breaks down the upcoming battle in the trenches between Texas and Texas Tech, while Scipio Tex responds. I don't have much to add besides commenting that dedfischer underestimates Brian Orakpo, but the whole discussion brings up some salient points for the Tech game. Namely, can the Texas defense make Texas Tech one dimensional, which would help the pass rush immeasurably? And, on the other side of the ball, can Texas control the clock and limit the number of plays Texas Tech runs?
Since I'm a loser, on to the numbers. Texas controlled the ball for over 40 minutes last year against Tech, 10 minutes more than an average that placed them at #40 in the country. This season, the Longhorns average 33 minutes of possession time per game, good for fifth in the country, while Tech places in the bottom half of the country at just more than 29 minutes per game. So why does this matter? Last season, the Longhorns ran 93 plays to Texas Tech's 57, 21 fewer than Tech ran against Kansas last week. For a team that averages 7.5 yards per play, that amounts to 157.5 more yards. Keeping Tech off the field will be crucial.
So how do the Longhorns do that? Well, the ball control passing team evident all season is a step, but running the ball effectively will keep the passing lanes open and wear out a Tech defense that might not have the depth to stay on the field for more than 33 minutes. The Texas offense bludgeoned Tech last year to the tune of 63 carries for 283 yards, more than 100 yards over the average that left them 82nd in the country. The improved defense has vaulted them to 14th, although they give up 37 more yards per game to winning teams. All this is to say that while Tech is a much better team in run defense this year, the Longhorns offensive line is playing better than it was a year ago, leaving much to be revealed on the Jones Stadium field Saturday night.
Will the real running game please step up? PB mentioned the issues in the running game in his post-game react, noting that the Oklahoma State stretched the zone plays to the sideline and Ogbonnaya and McGee failed to find running lanes. The zone blocking scheme requires good vision from the running backs and the ability to plant and cut. McGee has struggled mightily with the latter, although in his defense, he has shown much more burst recently than he has since the ugly play against Florida Atlantic. Both backs missed running lanes that opened up on the backside of plays. Ogbonnaya only averaged 2.4 yards per carry, while McGee had 6 for 13 excepting his 14-yard touchdown run. Both could have had more with better vision. Those mistakes spell doom against a good Tech run defense. Did I just say "good Tech run defense"?
So where does that leave Texas? Well, back to the mythical Fozzy creature, who apparently was healthy against Oklahoma State, but didn't play because Greg Davis didn't feel comfortable with him handling the myriad blitzes the Cowboy defense threw at the Longhorns. Frustrating, but understandable. At least it wasn't a health issue. If the blitz pick up is the main issue, though, Tech only blitzes 18% of the time, a number significantly lower than the last several teams played by Texas.
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Comments
Excellent Article
I, too, am a stats whore. And you just gave me a stat-gasm, GoBR!
Is it too ridiculous to consider Chiles as our new kick returner?
It's Mean to Ween
by Bombilla on Oct 28, 2008 8:44 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
But he has most of the teams fumbles
and the stat of fumbles per time played would be very high.
Not a horrible idea last year though.
by Bevoboy94 on Oct 28, 2008 9:38 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Punt Returns
Having Cosby back on punt returns might not provide the flash we would like to see, but with the offense playing at such a high caliber i’m sure the coaches are just banking on a sure thing: Cosby is a sure fire bet to catch every punt he attempts to field, and he’s smart enough to know when to let it go.
As for kick off returns, your guess is as good as mine. I’d like to see someone with a little more burst back returning kicks.
by rchorns on Oct 28, 2008 9:18 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Kick-Off Returns
Mack gave Malcolm Williams and Christian Scott a chance against OSU, I believe in the 2nd quarter. The ball bounced directly between them for a touchback as neither took over the center-field role in that situation.
I imagine if Mack were to replace Cosby and/or Shipley, those two would get the first shot.
By the way, is it too hard to imagine DeSean Hales in a Kendall Hunter type role? Methinks not.
by jc25 on Oct 28, 2008 9:40 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Has desean even touched the field this year??
He was a beast at running back in highschool
by mccoy12 on Oct 28, 2008 9:42 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
he's redshirting. but i'm imagining he's too good to keep off the field next year. nt whills
by jc25 on Oct 28, 2008 10:00 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Is he really that good?
Oh that’s right. Yes, he is. DeSean Hales: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aVLWjC2zUNE
by Kool Hand on Oct 28, 2008 4:37 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
not their fault
That kickoff was a knuckleball. It started off right at C. Scott and then inexplicably moved about 10 yards to his left on its way down.
I’d prefer to see Shipley and Scott or Malcolm back there instead of Quan.
by BMG on Oct 28, 2008 5:08 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
What about Fozzy takin punts?? He's not doin much RBing?? Why not let him get some touches on the ball?
by mccoy12 on Oct 28, 2008 10:06 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
problems in running game
Something was wrong with Ogbonnaya in the OSU game (aggravated an injury perhaps?). He was much slower in his cuts than in the last 3 games. If he can heal up, he might be incredibly effective running against Tech’s aggressive DE’s. Vondrell, Vondrell, what can I say. He makes two great runs and then looks like a lost cat on the third. I think he is still having trouble with reading the blocking on some plays. I recall one counter play where Vondrell ran into the LB before Ulatoski could get there. With a half-second hesitation, he would have had a 10 yard run easily. In general UT’s backs look to run around the corner rather than cut back way too much, and their field vision when they have the ball is good but not scintillating.
Some of the linemen had issues as well. Kyle Hix was manhandled most of the day, and consequently I think the Horns averaged something like only 2-3 yards per carry running to the right, but about 5 or 6 running to the left (behind Adam Ulatoski). Also, Chris Hall and Charlie Tanner had trouble on zone read plays with the OSU DT’s when they slanted hard.
More than anything else, I feel like Greg Davis doesn’t trust the run, the team knows it, and it affects their attitude. There are many plays where the blocking is executed well and the Horns run for 5-12 yards, such as McGee’s touchdown run, or sometimes a long run, like Chris O’s late run against Oklahoma. But there are also too many plays where the linemen get back on their heels and there’s just nowhere for the backs to go.
One final point – I recall last year that Nebraska was known to blitz a small proportion of the time, but against Texas brought it 80% of the time and it took until the fourth quarter for Texas to figure it out. Beware the percentages, but get Fozzy in the game!
by burnt in ny on Oct 28, 2008 10:19 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
If I'm remembering correctly,
David Snow (Freshman) broke open that McGee TD run.
I could be wrong but I thought I remembered seeing/hearing his name out there.
by HornPossessed on Oct 28, 2008 11:48 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not sure if he was in on that particular play
but I definitely saw him really early in the game…like the second drive.
by Horncasting on Oct 28, 2008 2:31 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
OH hell yes
If you get a chance to watch him pull and take down 2-3 OSU defenders, it was a thing of beauty. I have continually looped the replay in slow motion and just cannot get enough of the effort. The play unfolds exaclty like GD drew it up on the chalk board. Even Quan is getting downfield and making the final block for McGhee to make his cut on.
by TXStampede on Oct 28, 2008 6:20 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
GD's on it
Re: deceptive blitz statistics. Leading up to OSU, Davis mentioned at some point that teams have been blitzing against the Horns at a higher percentage than against other teams. I think he’s incorporating this into his gameplans. Colt seems to know when the opposition is blitzing, when to hit the hot route, and it seems that the hot route receivers have been getting open for him.
by Kool Hand on Oct 28, 2008 4:32 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ummm
“…Tech only blitzes 18% of the time, a number significantly lower than the last several teams played by Texas.”
Isn’t that just leaving the door wide open for a repeat of the Nebraska post-game press conference from ’07???
by Shake on Oct 28, 2008 10:35 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

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