BCS Breakdown 2008 V1.3

by Horn Brain on Nov 10, 2008 12:22 AM CST in Football Comment 17 comments

Sigh... Late again. -HB

Last week I said the polls were pointing to a close game in Jacksonville and a Texas win in Lubbock, and I was wrong both times, though just barely on the latter. Bring it on, Red Raider internet users (technical major graduates), but I'm saying Texas played like crap and we still had to hand you back the game in the final seconds after we let it thump us in the chest. I suppose my spreadsheets can't account for how beat up a team gets after playing three top 12 teams in a row. Coming off a blowout or a bye-week, Texas wins in Lubbock, and we're all bragging on how good our farts smell. I guess that's just the way the wind blows on the plains, though.

Stuff you don't read anyway after the break...

Outliers watch:

Charts, graphs, whatever:

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Well, last week, there were only a few weirdos: Alabama, Texas Tech, Texas (marginally), and LSU. Oddly enough, two of them played this weekend, and two played the week before.

Alabama was hurting in the computers a little bit, and a little bit of uncertainty is all it takes to send up a red flag for a top team. Sure enough, the high standard deviation was followed by a very near collapse in Death Valley. If Alabama were playing in a road game with that kind of homefield advantage and a good football team, the outcome might have been different. As it is, though, Jarrett Lee said "screw it" on his first throw in OT and killed the Tigers' hopes for an upset. That's what that high standard deviation was telling us about LSU, as well.

As far as Texas and Tech go, these are really just a case of one side of the equation not having caught up with the other. Both teams are getting underrated by the humans, but especially Texas. The resume the Longhorns bring to the table is second to none as far as one-loss teams go. The fact that the humans had us below OU and USC is absolute bull, but you knew that already.

Wish I could say more, but all that's left for this section is to note that the humans and computers are generally in far better agreement than average this year, as evidenced by the super low standard deviations of most of the teams.

Billingsley Report Card:

RB didn't disappoint us last week:

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Head of the class in wackiness and in being ignored as usual, though he managed to actually have more than half of his rankings count for the first time this year. He should really thinking about greasing the beads on his abacus representing Alabama, USC, Utah, LSU and Ball State, as they seem to be stuck in last year. Alabama, Utah and Ball State all receive higher than the #4, #14, and #25 he gives them from every other computer. On the other hand, RB is too generous to USC and LSU, who have either played no one (USC) or been exposed badly multiple times (LSU). Is USC really #5? Ahead of Florida and Oklahoma?

That's enough for a week late version of BCS Breakdown. Now I'll get started on this week's numbers and try and get back to you before Friday.

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I read this. All of it.

I always do.

Last week I changed a pick due to this info. Of course, I lost. But that was my judgment which was swayed and not your information. I sure wish you had additional descriptors on the graph so it could stand alone. More whistles and those lovely chaps.

*Alabama were.

by whills on Nov 10, 2008 12:58 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

thanks whills

Also, I like to refer to teams as individual units, since that’s the idea of a team. I say “Alabama were” later, but that’s only because I’m using the (I believe) subjunctive tense. I’m sure one of the grammar nazis will correct that. Like “If Jeff were to eliminate in my kitchen, I’d have to eliminate him.” I’ll have the next one out soon. Hopefully it’s useful.

by Horn Brain on Nov 10, 2008 9:30 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Go Ahead Techies Take Our Sloppy Seconds

Go ahead Techies beat up on 2 teams we’ve already retired for the season. The difference between our wins over OSU and OU, were that they were both undefeated at the time we played them, playing with much more confidence. Once you lose that first game, your team loses a little steam or “high” from thinking about being able to go undefeated. They are both sloppy seconds for tech.

by Dawnpatrol on Nov 10, 2008 10:03 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

You have to be kidding

If you think our victory over Oklahoma State was any more impressive than the way Tech humiliated the Cowboys just because they had already lost a game.

Right now, I have to concede that Texas Tech is playing the best football in the country. They are peaking, and it sucks for us to see a team that has never finished higher than 3rd in the Big 12 South pass us up this season and look so poised in doing it. The fact is, Tech looks unbeatable right now. The good thing is, Texas looked unbeatable after we shredded MiZZOU. Tech is peaking now, and can easily have a letdown in Norman or in Kansas City. But, to try and cheapen the quality of their wins at this point is silly. Right now, I would be stunned if Tech lost to OU.

Let’s not discount the importance of the bye week Tech is getting right now. Had Texas had a break before the game in Lubbock, I think the team would have come out much stronger. Tech will be rested from the last three weeks of playing ranked competition. Hopefully, and I think its very possible, Graham and co. will fall in love with themselves over the course of the next 2 weeks after reading all the media clippings. Tech is playing great, but overconfidence could have a part to play considering Tech has never been in this position before.

Also, calling Tech fans “Techies” is kind of Aggie to me. I think Texas fans are better than that. What’s next, refusing to call them anything but “ttu?”

by the1austin on Nov 10, 2008 10:32 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I agree.....

and I’d take it a step further and say that Tech should be a unanimous #1 ahead of Alabama.

"I asked Darrell Royal, the coach of the Texas Longhorns, why he didn’t recruit me and he said: "Well, Walt, we took a look at you and you weren’t any good.
- Walt Garrison

by 512 on Nov 10, 2008 1:39 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I think we'd be

utt if Aggie fans were doing it. They get everything backwards.

Go register. Or else.

by Skin Patrol on Nov 10, 2008 9:24 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

So in other words

Texas, which lost to Tech, is “retired” for the season because Tech beat them right? According to you, UT has lost confidence and now you are the sloppy seconds for any team who can win or gives you a good run. Sounds kind of stupid doesn’t it?

Being an accountant and famous don't go together. If you're a famous accountant, you probably did something wrong.

by Boarder on Nov 10, 2008 10:47 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Sloppy seconds...

I don’t know if we can make a generalization that teams are easier to beat after they’ve lost a game because they’ve “lost confidence”. I think that really depends on the mentality of the team: the coaches, the players, the leadership, etc.

However, I do think Tech’s win over OSU was easier than our win over OSU because Tech could watch our game footage and see what worked and what didn’t work, whereas we had no blueprint for victory over OSU because they’d never lost.

by Heart of a Muschampion on Nov 10, 2008 11:01 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

I enjoy this

Not being a genius, I nevertheless greatly enjoy your graphs and statistical analysis; perhaps in the manner that an accountant might nevertheless enjoy a work of art.

May Colt be with you. Yeah, that's right.

by bfaut86 on Nov 10, 2008 12:09 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Psychological pressure adversely impacts complex motor skill performance

When I took psych with a lab as an undergrad, we did an experiment to measure how psychological pressure impacts complex motor skills. It turns out that psychological pressure can really cause you to perform worse at complex motor skills. That is why many athletes tend to choke in the clutch, it is just normal human behavior. Athletes who perform well under extreme pressure are the exception, not the norm.

by Kafka on Nov 10, 2008 12:50 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Not sure.....

On the other hand, RB is too generous to USC and LSU, who have either played no one (USC) or been exposed badly multiple times (LSU). Is USC really #5? Ahead of Florida and Oklahoma?

……how you can be “too generous” to a program that has allowed a grand total of 60 points all season. A defense that has pitched 3 shutouts. A defense that has allowed only ONE single opponent to score more than 10 points.

USC’s offense is showing the impact of having so many highly ranked recruits leaving for the NFL after only 3 seasons of play. The compounding effect has really sunk in. Especially when compared to a program like Texas that has 5 seasons from virtually every recruit.

--- All roads to the Big-XII Championship lead through OU/RRS. It's not just another game! We're all about championships here. ---

by HornChamps on Nov 10, 2008 1:11 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Those shutouts are against Washington, Washington State, and Arizona State – teams that are a combined 2-17 in conference (with one of those wins coming against another team from that group) and averaging a combined 15 ppg in conference. (In fact, if you remove Arizona State from that group it drops to 11 ppg.) Yes, it’s somewhat impressive, but I fail to see how not giving up a garbage-time TD against your fourth-string defense makes it more impressive.

Put USC in the Big XII this year and I doubt they hold any of the top four in the South below 14, and aside from Oklahoma State probably none below 24. USC’s defense is great, but the numbers have to be put into context.

by SpartanDan on Nov 10, 2008 3:41 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs

Tell me this.....

If ????

1. Tech loses to Oklahoma
2. Alabama loses to Florida
3. Texas wins out

Would both Florida and OU jump Texas #3?

"I asked Darrell Royal, the coach of the Texas Longhorns, why he didn’t recruit me and he said: "Well, Walt, we took a look at you and you weren’t any good.
- Walt Garrison

by 512 on Nov 10, 2008 1:20 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

There is no way that two Big 12 teams will make the MNC.

It’s not happening. So, in this scenario, all that would matter is if OU passed Texas. I think right now, absent a stunning upset (Alabama to Auburn or Florida to Florida State and the higher ranked SEC team losing the SEC Title game), there will almost certainly be an SEC v. Big 12 Title game. That is what the voters want.

I would guess that an OU win against Tech (and of course a win in Stillwater) would be enough for OU to pass Texas in the BCS rankings. I honestly think the best path for Texas to a MNC comes if Tech beats Oklahoma and loses to Missouri in the Big 12 Title game. There would be no way for Oklahoma to get in (with 2 losses), and Tech won’t get in after losing their last game (See Oklahoma in 2004). The Florida/Alabama winner would face Texas. USC would come back into the picture, but would have too much ground to make up.

by the1austin on Nov 10, 2008 2:29 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

P.S.

I have some major issues with the BCS right now.

1. Obviously, the humans putting Texas behind Oklahoma (a team they beat by ten on a neutral site) and Florida (who lost to unranked Ole Miss who starts a QB who was the Texas #2 QB.)

2. Georgia #10- really? Why? Because the pollsters don’t want to admit they made a huge mistake putting them #1 pre-season? Take a look at Georgia’s resume.

8-2 record
Barely beat Kentucky last week
Only ranked win was against LSU #13
Crushed by Florida and Alabama
Beat South Carolina by one score 14-7

3. BCS busters? Bah humbug
Any team can beat any other team on any given day, but show me a resume for God sakes.
Utah, Boise State, Ball State? Seriously? As messed up as the BCS is with powerhouse teams like Texas, Oklahoma and Florida fighting tooth and nail to try and secure a BCS bowl- teams like Ball State get to use the affirmative action of the BCS to merely win out in a weak conference to get in.

4. Ohio State and Georgia ranked above Mizzou and Okie State is absolute crap. In my humble opinion.

5. USC #6? Really. Give Okie State or Mizzou one shot against USC on a neutral site.

"I asked Darrell Royal, the coach of the Texas Longhorns, why he didn’t recruit me and he said: "Well, Walt, we took a look at you and you weren’t any good.
- Walt Garrison

by 512 on Nov 10, 2008 1:34 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

You sir are a Big 12 homer to the extreme

Missouri and Oklahoma State haven’t beaten anyone either. Just because your only losses are to good teams don’t make you good yourself.

by billyzane on Nov 10, 2008 1:45 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Homer?

I didn’t write the Iliad or the Odyssey but I have been to the guy’s tomb in Greece. Got some great pics- I’ll send them to you.

"I asked Darrell Royal, the coach of the Texas Longhorns, why he didn’t recruit me and he said: "Well, Walt, we took a look at you and you weren’t any good.
- Walt Garrison

by 512 on Nov 10, 2008 2:03 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs