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BCS Implosion?

While the Texas faithful is preparing itself for the inevitable leap frog by OU should they win out, shouldn't Tech fans be worried about Texas leapfrogging them?

Has anyone ruled out the possibility that a 1 loss Texas team could be ranked ahead of Tech even if Tech wins the Big XII conference?

For instance, assume the following scenario -

Texas wins out.

OU beats Tech, but loses to OSU

Tech beats Baylor

Tech takes the tie breaker over Texas to the Big XII championship game because of head-to-head, but that doesn't necessarily mean that Tech will be ranked higher in the polls or the BCS than Texas.  Furthermore, if Tech were to lose at OU, the degree of the loss would also carry some weight.  My guess would be that if Tech were to win the Big XII at best they would get a unanimous #2 from the voters (remember we are assuming they lose to OU).  So let's run with this:

Tech's scores would be 2736 in the Harris, and 1464 in the Coach's poll (the expected scores for a unanimous #2 ranking in both polls).  Assuming they also come in at exactly 96 points from the computers (again unanimous #2 ranking) Those would equate to a BCS score of .9600 (they currently have .9715).  Currently Texas is at .8798.

So how how much would a Texas team ranked an average #3 in both human polls need to beat Tech by in the computers to nudge ahead? Texas and Tech breakeven if Texas nets an impossible 1.04 in the computer score.  So where's the rub? 

Question the assumption - Does a 1 loss, Big XII champ Tech automatically get in the championship game? If you assume that an 11-1 Tech is not a unanimous #2, the computer target score for a 10-1 Texas starts to move down.  Throw in the possibility that Florida beats Bama in the SEC championship and now voters are sharing rankings 2-4 among Texas, Tech, USC (assuming they win out) and Bama.

You can run all sorts of scenarios here, and obviously its worth considering that the voters may sense an imminent BCS implosion and would default to ranking a one loss Tech at #2 if they win the Big 12.  But, just for the sake of arguement, if Texas (or USC for that matter) were to peal away about 12% of the Harris and Coach's poll voters from Tech then all of a sudden Texas or USC would only need a 0.06 point edge in the computer score to jump Tech.   Take a look at the separation in computer scores between one loss teams -- Texas is 0.4 points higher than Penn State, and still 0.1 points higher than Florida and OU.  12% of voters in the Harris poll is about 14 out of 114, and in the coach's poll we're talking 8 out of 61.

Is this a possibility? Mathematically? Definitely.  And if I were a Tech fan, it would scare the crap out of me.  But I still wouldn't be as scared as the guys in charge of the BCS would be if Tech loses to OU and OU turns around and loses at OSU.

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Good points

But I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again.

As a Texas fan, I’d love to see them jump a one-loss Tech to play for the MNC. As a CFB fan, it’d be disastrous for a team that didn’t win its own conference to jump the team they lost to that did win its conference.

by jc25 on Nov 12, 2008 6:28 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

In that case...

…Tech would have had (IMO) one of the two best resumes in the country alongside Florida. When looking at whom to vote #2, the only team the pollsters should even look at aside from Tech is USC. Alabama and Texas weren’t conference champions (Texas wouldn’t have even won its division), that leaves USC as the next highest conference champions. Tech’s resume would obviously be superior, and I would hope the pollsters would vote accordingly. But we all know what relying on the voters can bring (cough, OU ’03, cough).

jc25 said it all. It would be great for me as a Horn fan, but crushing for me as a college football fan. Tech fans should definitely be wary of this possibility.

by Sweed4Heisman on Nov 12, 2008 6:42 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

USC

Also not a conference champion unless Oregon State loses.

by hornalum08 on Nov 12, 2008 9:05 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

USC...

Why would they rank USC over us? They didn’t even rank them over us now, and they don’t have a championship game to give them another game to sway the pollsters.

by BlinkOneGun on Nov 13, 2008 6:33 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

If Oregon State wins out

USC would be Co-Champions and would not get the automatic BCS bid. Therefore, they would technically have to go to the MNC game as an At-large team not as a Conference champion.

Biggest issue I have is that if the Big 12 didn’t have a conference championship game, Texas, Texas Tech, and OU would all be Co-Champions just like USC. So using the “needs to be a conference champion” argument basically means we get the shaft because we have a conference championship.

If Tech and/or OU have just one loss along with Texas we are all co-division champions.

by Forty on Nov 12, 2008 7:26 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

In the scenario BMG proposed...

… OU would have two losses, and Tech would have one loss and the head to head tie breaker against Texas. Technically, I guess Tech and Texas would be co-champs, but it doesn’t make much since to call them both champs since Tech won head to head.

As for USC, I was just assuming Oregon State will lose. They have Cal and Oregon at home, and have to go to Arizona.

by Sweed4Heisman on Nov 12, 2008 7:44 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

Agree Jc25..............

I also think Tech beating Missouri (in Kansas City (which is like a home game for the Tigers) versus the Texas win at home would come into play.

by texascfo on Nov 12, 2008 8:40 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

depends how bad

in this scenario, it probably depends on how bad Tech were to lose to OU. A strong showing in Norman wont hurt them even if its a loss, but a >two TD loss could sway voters.

They’d have to crush Mizzou to regain the edge…

by BMG on Nov 12, 2008 10:00 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

ou won't lose to tech

Mack will start making his speeches after the a&m game how Texas beat ou by 10 points on a neutral field. He will be on every radio and tv station he can possibly show his face on before the polls come out.

by Longhorns84 on Nov 12, 2008 8:42 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

excellent point...

I dont think OU will lose to Tech, not in Norman. But that’s good for us, if people have some perspective in the 3 1-loss Big Xii South teams scenario.

Who gets the #2 ranking?

The common assumption is that OU will get a huge boost after beating an undefeated Tech and 2-loss OSU.

I think we can assume (not safely) that Tech drops down to #5 or #6 in the human polls which would be brutal and likely not be able to overcome Texas or OU regardless of their computer ranking. This I believe would be based purely on the 3 schools’ tradition and schedule.

Texas can be sure to remain at #2 or #3 in the human polls if they win out against KU and aTm. Same goes for OU.

So back to the perspective and LH84s point:

Comparing the 3 teams head to head matchups is difficult. Since they would each have lost to each other. Odd situation. Given a step back from the picture you could see TWO glaring strengths for the Longhorns.

Texas lost to Tech in Lubbock at the last second after being down 19-0, and regaining the lead. Big cajones. Huge.
Texas beat OU on a neutral field. By 10 points, after trailing for 80% of the game. This is still the Red River Shootout voters. Oh. And beat Big Xii North Champ Mizzou. I guess that’s 3 strengths.

Tech beat Texas in Lubbock. Lost to OU. Didn’t play any other notable teams the entire season, 4-loss OSU not withstanding.

OU beats Tech, but in Norman. Lost to Texas. Didn’t play any other notable teams the entire season, 4-loss OSU not withstanding and 2/3-loss MWC team TCU.

Given just a little perspective on those points, I’d hope any self respecting human voter will put us ahead of OU and Tech. Unfortunately we’re all out of self respecting human voters. We’ll have to take our chances with the ones we have now.

-flo

by bleed burnt orange on Nov 13, 2008 9:28 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

The point of this post

was to point out what could happen if OU beat Tech but lost to OSU in Stillwater the next week. Tech and Texas would finish with one loss, but OU would have two losses.

The calamity for the BCS would be that because the computers favor Texas as the top 1 loss team, it is possible that they would favor a one loss Texas over a one loss Tech. If that is the case, then it would take only a handful of voters to cause Texas to leapfrog Tech into the #2 spot even if Tech wins the Big 12 conference.

The point of this point was merely to point out that Tech fans should have just as much concern that they could be leapfrogged should they lose as we do.

by BMG on Nov 13, 2008 10:51 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

bleed burnt orange

Do note forget this about the OU schedule per ESPN:

“Oklahoma will have an edge in strength of schedule. The Sooners defeated No. 18 TCU and No. 22 Cincinnati, which could both finish as conference champions, and, in the Bearcats’ case, in a BCS bowl. The only one of Texas’ nonconference opponents with a winning record is Rice.”

by texascfo on Nov 13, 2008 10:17 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

They may have the SOS in Non Conference..

But those two wins were at home. Considering we beat OU at a neutral site instead of at home, I don’t see OU leapfrogging us. I think the 4 game stretch from hell we’ll help us out big time.

by TexasFight7 on Nov 13, 2008 10:33 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

No need for Tech to be "scared"...

if they just win out.

If they lose ANY of their remaining games, however, I think the chances are zero% that they would make the NCG over TX. A loss to OU would put us all in that “one loss to each other” mess we’ve talked about ad nauseum, and would give voters a chance to evaluate each game – and a last-second win on a semi-miracle play, at home and in front of a rowdy crowd just wouldn’t be enough to keep them ahead of Texas.

In essence, they would lose the head-to-head with us, and that’s probably their very best vote-getter right now. And even if OU screwed the pooch a week later to drop, though Tech would go to the CCG, I don’t think it would vault them back over us if we didn’t lose. I think that head-to-head, once gone, is not coming back for them – voters would probably generally disregard it in favor of a more “body of work” approach, which favors UT.

But… having said that, it’s still all in their own hands. And you gotta think that’s probably just fine with Captain Leach…

by Pflash on Nov 13, 2008 5:52 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

i disagree...

I dont see how anybody could think Texas would or should remain ahead of Texas Tech in either human poll if Tech loses to OU, but wins the Big Xii. The only place Texas could jump them is in the computer rankings, but even still I dont see that being that much of a deal breaker. For Tech that is.

-flo

by bleed burnt orange on Nov 13, 2008 6:02 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

just win the Big 12 Championship game

there is to much football to even talk about the BCS since we are now 3.
Mack NEEDS to win Conference Championships (like 3 in a row!!)
if we win the Big 12 i will consider this an exceptional season and if we don’t
make the NC game it wont break my heart. WE WILL BE THERE NEXT YEAR!!!!!

ut1ou2 for texas-ou weekend

by ut1ou2 on Nov 13, 2008 6:55 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

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