FanPost

BCS Implosion?

While the Texas faithful is preparing itself for the inevitable leap frog by OU should they win out, shouldn't Tech fans be worried about Texas leapfrogging them?

Has anyone ruled out the possibility that a 1 loss Texas team could be ranked ahead of Tech even if Tech wins the Big XII conference?

For instance, assume the following scenario -

Texas wins out.

OU beats Tech, but loses to OSU

Tech beats Baylor

Tech takes the tie breaker over Texas to the Big XII championship game because of head-to-head, but that doesn't necessarily mean that Tech will be ranked higher in the polls or the BCS than Texas.  Furthermore, if Tech were to lose at OU, the degree of the loss would also carry some weight.  My guess would be that if Tech were to win the Big XII at best they would get a unanimous #2 from the voters (remember we are assuming they lose to OU).  So let's run with this:

Tech's scores would be 2736 in the Harris, and 1464 in the Coach's poll (the expected scores for a unanimous #2 ranking in both polls).  Assuming they also come in at exactly 96 points from the computers (again unanimous #2 ranking) Those would equate to a BCS score of .9600 (they currently have .9715).  Currently Texas is at .8798.

So how how much would a Texas team ranked an average #3 in both human polls need to beat Tech by in the computers to nudge ahead? Texas and Tech breakeven if Texas nets an impossible 1.04 in the computer score.  So where's the rub? 

Question the assumption - Does a 1 loss, Big XII champ Tech automatically get in the championship game? If you assume that an 11-1 Tech is not a unanimous #2, the computer target score for a 10-1 Texas starts to move down.  Throw in the possibility that Florida beats Bama in the SEC championship and now voters are sharing rankings 2-4 among Texas, Tech, USC (assuming they win out) and Bama.

You can run all sorts of scenarios here, and obviously its worth considering that the voters may sense an imminent BCS implosion and would default to ranking a one loss Tech at #2 if they win the Big 12.  But, just for the sake of arguement, if Texas (or USC for that matter) were to peal away about 12% of the Harris and Coach's poll voters from Tech then all of a sudden Texas or USC would only need a 0.06 point edge in the computer score to jump Tech.   Take a look at the separation in computer scores between one loss teams -- Texas is 0.4 points higher than Penn State, and still 0.1 points higher than Florida and OU.  12% of voters in the Harris poll is about 14 out of 114, and in the coach's poll we're talking 8 out of 61.

Is this a possibility? Mathematically? Definitely.  And if I were a Tech fan, it would scare the crap out of me.  But I still wouldn't be as scared as the guys in charge of the BCS would be if Tech loses to OU and OU turns around and loses at OSU.

All comments, FanPosts, and FanShots are the views of the reader-authors who create them.

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