Texas still #3 in Sagarin

by jtlonghorn on Nov 16, 2008 8:14 AM CST

Tech - 93.97
Bama - 93.34
Texas - 92.38
Utah - 88.03
Florida - 87.94
Oklahoma - 87.47

Other Notables:

#8 Oklahoma State, #9 USC, #13 Missouri, #14 TCU, #19 Cincinnati

The Utah buffer is slowly dwindling and would imagine OU would jump them and Florida if they beat Tech next week. Texas is much closer to first than fourth though, so it doesn't look like OU may have enough to catch Texas even with 2 more good wins. And as OU moves up, Texas gets a little help since they beat them.

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Florida

It will be interesting to see how much Florida is able to close the gap for 3rd today. They may very well jump us, with a win over an overrated South Carolina team with a good record. The human voters already have them ahead of us, and it wont take much more movement in the computers for them to move into 3rd.

If they dont jump us this week, then I think we should be able to hold them off until the SEC championship game, as they play the Citadel next week and then close with FSU.

Of course, this point is moot as one of Florida/Bama will be out of the top 4 completely in 3 weeks.

by 6th street on Nov 16, 2008 9:14 AM CST reply actions

Media is the root of the problem

Look at the front pages of espn.com and usatoday.com. Both have the Gators waxing the Cocks as their front page story. The Texas victory – a defensive gem on the road in challenging weather – barely merits a link on either page.

The only thing more surprising about how actively the media are fellating Florida is how little they are pushing USC’s case for the MNC game.

Still a Blaine Irby fan

by patienthornsfan on Nov 16, 2008 9:28 AM CST up reply actions

well, to be fair

all afternoon yesterday ESPN.com had the Texas victory plastered across it. Several hours at least. So we werent totally slighted, as it might now seem. And I dont think ESPN has been anything but positive toward us in recent weeks. All of the talking heads have supported us over OU, and they even kept a link on the home page to our “blowout” victory over Baylor last week.

So Im not so sure that media has been as influential on our current position as it might seem. I think its just a very complicated situation. And the coaches/harris poll voters are morons as well.

by 6th street on Nov 16, 2008 9:38 AM CST up reply actions

Agreed.

To me all day yesterday, all I heard after our games was the talking heads going on about how Texas shouldn’t be jumped by OU.

I think someone’s doing a good job of not letting us fall off the radar and not letting that key point about our victory slip out of people’s heads.

by TXinDC on Nov 16, 2008 10:26 AM CST up reply actions

Predictor still has us ending up ahead of OU

95.26 v. 92.56

I keep forgetting, does the Predictor take into account the remaining games on the respective team schedules? If so, then I’m definitely rooting for the Land Thieves to win out.

Still a Blaine Irby fan

by patienthornsfan on Nov 16, 2008 9:20 AM CST reply actions

not sure

here’s what i pulled from wiki

“Elo chess,” is presumably based on the Elo rating system used internationally to rank chess players. This system uses only wins and losses, with no reference to the victory margin. The other system, “Predictor,” takes victory margin into account. For that system, the difference in two teams’ rating scores is meant to predict the margin of victory for the stronger team at a neutral venue. For both systems, teams gain higher ratings within the Sagarin system by winning games against stronger opponents, factoring in such things as home-venue advantage. For the Predictor system, margin of victory (or defeat) factors in also, but a law of diminishing returns is applied. Therefore, a football team that wins a game by a margin of 7-6 is rewarded less than a team that defeats the same opponent under the same circumstances 21-7, but a team that wins a game by a margin of 35-0 receives similar ratings to a team that defeats the same opponent 70-0. This characteristic is highly regarded by many as it recognizes “comfortable” victories, yet reduces a team’s incentive to run up the score.

I think predictor factors in only past games, but uses the margin of victory to reasonably compare teams to each other as a measure of how they would perform if they played on a neutral field. Thats what i read from it anyway. I dont believe that the Predictor actually factors in future games not yet played, or projects how teams will finish.

that having been said, Sagarin swears by his Predictor ratings over the EloChess, noting them to be more reliable and a better indicator of team strengths.

by 6th street on Nov 16, 2008 9:35 AM CST up reply actions