Texas Maintains #3 position in BCS Standings

Analysis to follow. For now, let's get this to the front page for discussion.

about 3 years ago Peter Bean 11 comments 0 recs |

Comments

by the numbers

The numbers are up at Fox: http://msn.foxsports.com/cfb/polls

Again, the computers like us more than the human polls, just enough to push us up to #3. It’ll be tough to stay ahead of OU(sucks) should they beat Tech.

1. Alabama 11-0 0.979
2. Texas Tech 10-0 0.970
3. Texas 10-1 0.891
4. Florida 9-1 0.876
5. Oklahoma 9-1 0.839
6. USC 9-1 0.787
7. Utah 11-0 0.764
8. Penn State 10-1 0.696
9. Boise State 10-0 0.656
10. Ohio State 9-2 0.615

by wizardimps on Nov 16, 2008 4:50 PM CST reply actions

Just for grins, my perfect BCS storm

…and this isn’t even that convoluted a scenario:

(1) Texas, Penn State, USC, Oregon State and Utah all win out (all quite possible, if not likely)

(2) OU beats Tech and OSU, goes to KC, but loses to Mizzou (#11 Mizzou winning that game, at night in the state of Missouri in December, is quite possible, no matter who their foe is)

(3) Florida loses to FSU (my one stretch, but, hey, let’s say Bobby announces his impending retirement before the game, and the ’Noles win one for Bowden in his last home game) but turns around and beats Bama in Atlanta

Your universe of teams:

(1) A one-loss Texas that did not win its division.

(2) A one-loss Texas Tech that did not win its division.

(3) A one-loss Alabama that did not win its conference.

(4) A one-loss USC that did not win its conference.

(5) A two-loss Florida that won one of the two toughest conferences in the country.

(6) A two-loss Mizzou that won one of the two toughest conferences in the country.

(7) A one-loss Penn State team that would probably be an underdog to any of the teams listed above but did in fact win its conference.

(8) An undefeated Utah that defeated the Pac 10 champs during the regular season.

Who’s in Miami?

by Hopkins Horn on Nov 16, 2008 5:01 PM CST reply actions

great scenario

but ultimately easy answer: texas vs. USC, for the following reasons:

1. simple poll momentum; texas and USC win out while the teams ahead of them lose. therefore, they move up to 1 and 2, respectively.
2. timeliness of loss; USC and texas have the two least-recent losses of all one-loss teams in the scenario.
3. quality of loss; both lost to “good” teams, on paper (10-1 tech and 10-1 oregon state).
4. brand-name factor; both texas and USC have won a national title within the last four years, therefore are more “deserving” of a title game berth (the anti-ohio state rule, if you will).
5. re-match lust; voters would love to see USC try and avenge the 2005 loss with their newly-stifling defense.

the only other team that might jump USC into the #2 spot would be a one-loss alabama or texas tech; but their losses would have been in a CCG right before the final BCS poll and to a 9-2 florida and 9-2 missouri team, respectively. bama’s #1 ranking would not sustain the momentum like OU’s did in 2003 (enabling them to back-door into the MNC game), due to the fact that they haven’t dominated teams this year (like the 2003 sooners did) and bama is already bleeding first-place votes in the human polls. texas would be a lock for #1, no matter the earlier loss to tech.

anything i’m missing?

bleeding orange up in nyc. get a rope.

by cwofford on Nov 16, 2008 7:48 PM CST up reply actions

jinx

ESPN ran the same scenario and came up with a similar final BCS ranking of:

1. texas
2. USC
3. texas tech
4. alabama

their ultimate point is: good thing the BCS doesn’t have a “must win your conference to play in the MNC game” rule. i’m now a converted believer, myself.

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/news/story?page=roadtobcs/0805

bleeding orange up in nyc. get a rope.

by cwofford on Nov 16, 2008 8:16 PM CST up reply actions

I think that is right...

…but Penn State would have a very legit gripe that they, and not USC, should get the second spot, given their rout of Pac 10 champion Oregon State, the very team that defeated USC.

by Hopkins Horn on Nov 16, 2008 8:52 PM CST up reply actions

Oregon State has 3 losses

to Utah, Penn State, and Stanford. Not that they’re not that good, but…. three losses.

by littlevisigoth on Nov 16, 2008 9:13 PM CST up reply actions

amazing...

It’s amazing to think that a team ranked #3 in the BCS on November 16th (Texas) will probably not play in its own conference championship game.

it’s also amazing to think that althought the #1 and #2 ranked teams in the BCS will be favored to lose another game each (Tech vs. OU, Bama vs. Florida), and yet the #3 team still may not crack the top 2 and get to the championship game.

I’m still holding out hope that we can win a ‘beauty contest’ against OU in the polls (humans be damned), and i’m also sensing that it would be hard to deny Texas the #2 ranking in the BCS if a) OU beats Tech b) OSU beats OU and c) Tech beats Mizzou. I just don’t see Tech dropping below Texas and then somehow jumping back into the top two, even with a win at Arrowhead.

Otherwise we’re looking at a Fiesta Bowl and a nice #2 finish for the year if we can win a bowl game against Utah/Boise/OhioState/USC/whoever.

by brownf on Nov 16, 2008 5:04 PM CST reply actions