With as many games left to be played as there are, a wholly comprehensive break down of all the scenarios would be oppressively long, so I'm going go focus on two scenarios based on Saturday's showdown in Norman--breaking down the consequences of each and including a corresponding if-then rooting guide.
IF OKLAHOMA BEATS TEXAS TECH
We begin with the most widely discussed scenario, which is also the most complicated.
Texas goes to Kansas City if: (1) Oklahoma subsequently defeats Oklahoma State and Texas finishes ahead of the Sooners in the BCS Standings, or (2) Texas Tech loses at home to Baylor.
Texas goes to Miami if: (1) Texas gets to Kansas City as outlined above and defeats Missouri, or (2) Oklahoma State beats OU and Texas Tech loses to Missouri, or (3) Oklahoma wins the three-way tiebreaker and loses to Missouri.
The following events would help Texas in this scenario: In the case of an OU win on Saturday, root also for:
- Rice (vs Marshall, vs Houston), Florida Atlantic (at Arky State, vs FIU), UTEP (at Houston, at E. Carolina), Arkansas (at Miss. State, vs LSU), Missouri (vs Kansas), Colorado (at Nebraska).
- Air Force (at TCU), Pittsburgh (at Cincinnati), Hawaii (vs Cincinnati).
- If you're really obsessive, identify and root against opponents of Oklahoma's opponents.
- Very narrow, less impressive Oklahoma wins in either or both of their final two games.
- Reasoned, highly-developed discourse about the merits of Texas versus Oklahoma. Hope for as many voters as possible voting the Big 12 South Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma--in that order. Every point in the human polls will matter.
IF TEXAS TECH BEATS OKLAHOMA
And now the situation should the Red Raiders clinch the Big 12 South on Saturday:
Texas goes to Kansas City if: N/A. Tech goes to KC with a win on Saturday.
Texas goes to Miami if: (1) Texas Tech loses to Baylor or Missouri, or (2) Florida loses to FSU and beats Alabama, or (3) Alabama loses to Auburn and beats Florida.
The following events would help Texas in this scenario: The projections above are not guaranteed to take place if the Red Raiders win out. Rematch-averse voters could vote USC or one-loss Alabama high enough to face Texas Tech in Miami. So Texas fans would need to root for:
- Voter willingness to see a rematch.
- Marginal gains by USC in the computers.
- Strong finish from Texas' opponents to boost its own computer average.
WHAT TO DO ON SATURDAY?
Some of you may find yourselves unwilling to root for Oklahoma on Saturday, and if so, you'll want to root for one of the SEC front-runners to stumble before the title game in Atlanta. That, or hope Baylor or Missouri can knock out Texas Tech.
If Oklahoma does win on Saturday, things will get ugly. Real ugly. Heated debates about all this will ratchet up to perhaps unprecedented decibels, the shouting match between Lubbock, Norman, and Austin likely to become a deafening roar.
For now, though, we wait.