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Mailbag: Is Texas Doomed In A Three-Way Tiebreak?

With each passing week in this crazy season comes more and more email to my inbox. Keep it coming. As always, I make a point to respond to everyone through email or on the site. I will never use anyone's full name on BON unless explicitly authorized.

Thanks for taking my email in last week's Mailbag. I don't mean to be a pest but there's still a big gap between you and what Hinton is saying on Texas' chances. I guess what I'm trying to bait you into discussing is whether or not you think he's full of it. I mean, one of you has to be wrong on this right?

(Also for the record- I am a Mizzou fan, I just love Big 12 football and like your blog. And of course am interested to see who we will play in the title game.)

--L.S.

Alright, alright: Let's take this on more directly. And let me preface my comments by noting that I fully support Matt Hinton's candidacy to become CFB's Playoff Czar.

To your email: Honestly, what you're really asking for is a Matt Hinton Mailbag. I've laid out my reasons why I think Texas should win a three-way tiebreaker with Oklahoma and Tech, and BZ has masterfully explained why--if the human vote falls one (not unrealistic) way--Texas not only can, but would. What you want to know is: Why does Hinton think Texas can't win the three-way tiebreak. So I'll post this publicly and ask for Matt to weigh in at his home base.

I'll risk putting words in his mouth by saying that my read on what he's been saying is that he is projecting a tide of human vote momentum for Oklahoma that--if realized--would in 9 computer scenarios out of 10 propel Oklahoma past Texas. But we'll let him speak for himself.

And one final point: Not only do I not think it's the OU slam dunk Hinton assumes, but, even if it were, what the hell else would you expect from BON but to lobby loudly for the alternative? If there's a three-way tie for the Big 12 South, Texas fans can, should, and will loudly make the case that our team belongs in Kansas City. That won't change, whether Hinton's right or not.

Star-divide

(Editor's note: This was emailed prior to the Kansas game.)

With all of the discussion regarding our defense this year, and in
particular our pass defense, I'd like to get your take on something.

If Mack had decided to keep Akina as the DC instead of bringing in
Muschamp, and we were in the exact same position at this point as a team -
record, attitude, offense, defense - would the majority of fans (you
included) be as positive about the performance of our defense this year?
Would Akina be getting the same amount of love that Muschamp is getting?
Would the same perception exist that a lot (not all) of our defensive stats
are more a function of the offenses we've played than a poor job by our
defense and defensive coaching staff?

--Horncasting

This is a great question, because Horncasting both makes a great point (Muschamp Mythology is a real phenomenon) and demands to know whether that's coloring otherwise objective analysis.

To answer the first part: You're right. I doubt very much that if Duane Akina had been retained as Defensive Coordinator, he would be enjoying the same kind of charitable interpretation of the defense's performance-to-date. With Muschamp, there is--and I can't deny this applies to myself as well--a tendency to look at a data set and, faced with two possible interpretations, give Texas' charismatic DC the benefit of the doubt.

With that said, whatever excess there may be in praising Muschamp, and whatever disparity there might be if we compared it against the exact same performance by Akina... if we strip all that away, I'll stand firmly behind the conclusion that the 2008 defense has to be considered a success. Whatever biases may exist in the way we discuss the DCs themselves, I roundly reject any argument that this defense has been anything short of Very Good.

The stat post last week was my way of trying to say: "Look, this defense has passed my eyeball test in terms or improvement, but also, for those of you concerned about the big cumulative stats, please bear in mind the context: Texas has faced four of the strongest offenses I've ever seen in Oklahoma, Missouri, Okie State, and Texas Tech." 

And on a final note: the dissents to my post seemed centered on the argument that, whether this is an improvement or not, Texas needs better heading forward. I don't know anyone who would want otherwise, but that point seems to miss what this defensive unit has accomplished along the way. What I find exciting is that this defense is, as I anticipated, awfully good as we approach the season's conclusion. What surprises me is that those historic offenses didn't destroy us worse than they might have along the way. The best is in front of us, but the results-to-date deserve a salute. I believe that.

PB I read your site every day and though I don't comment I read all of the comments and I just have to say that I found objectionable your comment that those of us who would root for Tech this weekend would be Aggie for doing so.

Let me just state that I find it hard to believe you (or any diehard fan) could hear that horrible Boomer Sooner song and actually feel good about it. It's just not something I can fathom. Every Texas fans should root for Tech and then hope for Baylor or Missouri to get the upset!

--Clyde E.

If you're suggesting that I, or any Texas fan, should never root for Oklahoma, no matter how much it would help the Longhorns, then I'll stand by what I said--that's Aggie. It's like the college football playoff: Whatever one thinks of the new President politically, if you're for a college football playoff, you should welcome that the guy is aiding the cause. Who the hell cares how it comes about?

Similarly, if an Oklahoma win will help Texas, I'm all for it. I don't care whether Oklahoma loses 12 games a year; I care whether they lose 1 game a year. In Dallas. And if you press me on it, I'd suggest that I'd rather Texas have beat down an otherwise excellent Sooners team than get a win over a decrepit OU team. Hell, the last thing we need is another Lose-Lose game like A&M has become: If you win, it's no big deal, because they blow; if you lose, it's even more revolting than it would have been had they been a formidable opponent.

So screw that: No Texas fan need feel like it's some sort of sin to root for Oklahoma when it helps Texas. The only sin is losing to Oklahoma. And we're cool there--45-35, bitches.

With that said, I will concede a little ground in one regard: If you're of the Doc Saturday persuasion and don't think a three-way tiebreak will work out favorably for Texas, then you really should be rooting for Texas Tech if you think Missouri would have a reasonable shot at upsetting the Red Raiders in Kansas City. That's another topic for another day, but I wouldn't think it unreasonable for one to argue that the Tigers had a solid chance to win that game. And if you think the Tigers would be more likely to upset Tech than OU, then sure, go for it. Root your heart out for Tech on Saturday.

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Comments

Display:

Muschamp mythology

I disagree that Muschamp is getting love because he’s Boom Mother**er, even before the Kansas game. Last year, Texas’s defensive players just looked lost, even to the casual fan. There was little in the way of a consistent pass rush, and the team gave up big plays to Jordy Nelson, Michael Crabtree, etc. by the bucketload. While the 2008 version of the defense has given up a lot of yards, they’ve made tons of fourth down stops, and limited the vaunted Tech attack to mostly field goals. There’s the famous 11-play goal line stand against Rice. The defense has yet to be beaten on deep posts or fly patterns and has given up darn few long runs after catch on slants and crossing routes (the only real weakness has been the wide receiver screens, particular the jailbreak screens over the middle). But more than anything, the defense was playing a physical style, even before Kansas, that fans have rarely seen

by burnt in ny on Nov 17, 2008 10:17 PM CST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I don't disagree with your analysis on the play of the D

(At the end of the day, I think both Muschamp and the D deserve the praise I’ve given them.)

BUT… I do think it’s fair to point out that I (and others) are probably more inclined to interpret more favorably the performance of Muschamp than we might if Akina were captaining the ship. That Muschamp does (in my view, and yours) deserve it, doesn’t change the fact that he’s getting more benefit of the doubt than Akina would have.

I don’t think conceding that point undermines my (and your) point about the actual quality of the ’08 defense.

--PB--

by PB @ BON on Nov 17, 2008 10:28 PM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Then there is

this…

Perhaps the most recognizable mascot in sports, and certainly the toughest looking, Bevo is a fixture

by run Bevo run on Nov 18, 2008 9:11 AM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Explosives!!!

I agree that our defense seems to give up less big plays than last year. I know Mack loves to talk about explosive plays. Can someone (I’m too lazy) figure out the number of Explosives!!! given up this year versus last year. I feel like it would be much less, but maybe that’s just perception.

by Horn37 on Nov 18, 2008 1:30 AM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I came to the conclusion

a few games back that Muschamp was indeed mortal, but the change in attitude of the defense has been obvious and welcome (and remember y’all that this is only his first year with this group).

My dos centavos on cheering for ou over tech is “no problemo,” but I would never under any circumstances pull for aggie, ever!

And, I do not welcome that “the guy” is aiding the cause.

May Colt be with you. Yeah, that's right.

by bfaut86 on Nov 17, 2008 11:13 PM CST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Don't root for OU or Tech

Root that the game is close and ugly. That Harrell and Bradford throw tons of picks, Crabtree is ineffective and that OU may win by one point. The uglier the better. Colt will gain huge ground in the Heisman race, Texas vs Tech will look even more like a fluke win for Tech and Texas will move up in the polls while OU will gain marginal ground but not enough to pass Texas. The media will come out of their daze that they’ve been in with Tech and a rematch between Texas and Mizzou for the Big XII title will look even better.

by seth78 on Nov 18, 2008 1:35 AM CST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Rooting

Root with you heart. What you want or do has no influence over the outcome whatsoever. So do what makes you feel good.

Before you criticize someone, walk a mile in their shoes. If they get mad, you're a mile away AND you have their shoes.

by Caradoc on Nov 18, 2008 2:00 AM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

You never know

Maybe we’ll be lucky and get to watch a complete trainwreck of a game that ends with us coming out on top. Hook ’em.

by seth78 on Nov 18, 2008 6:19 AM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Fluke?

Granted it was a close game we could have easily surrendered at the end, just like we have so many times in the past. And it did end with a shock. But you so quickly dismiss the fact that you got soundly beaten in every statistical category and led the game for a whopping 1:28. At best, you played well for almost two quarters. Looking at those numbers, it would have been a fluke if UT had won. And what was your margin of victory over OSU again? Denial is a powerful force.

I’m not saying you don’t have a great team and a great program. I’m just saying a little objectivity and intellectual honesty will serve you well in the long run.

by TT_ on Nov 18, 2008 8:24 PM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Poser

What I find difficult to grasp in Hinton’s analysis is how on one hand a one-point, last second win by Tech at home is enough to put them ahead of Texas, while on the other a convincing beating of OU at a neutral site does not put us ahead of them.

Before you criticize someone, walk a mile in their shoes. If they get mad, you're a mile away AND you have their shoes.

by Caradoc on Nov 18, 2008 1:58 AM CST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Root for Tech?

I don’t know about everyone else but that last drive they had on us, those plays, have burned and indelible mark on my soul this season. The what if’s. The shoulda woulda’s. The “if only’s”. An incredible comeback dashed. Give them credit for making the play, but….

I HATE THE F*CKING PIRATES. ALWAYS HAVE AND ALWAYS WILL.

Graham Harrell is such a douche. His smug, lack of humility, presence is enough to get my ugly on. Just want to punch the guy in the nose. You all know what I’m saying.

So, I’m going on the record, “I dreamed about the Bradford to Gresham game winning catch.”

Will be rooting BOOMER SOONER Saturday night if for no reason but pure payback. Will also be rooting for every OU opponent to lose (damn you Cardinals). The game posting will be lively so let’s get our drink on and pull for BCS chaos. This is our best shot, IMO, because Baylor and Mizzou will not be able to hang with Tech pass game and OL protection.

So let’s go people. We all need to pull together on this one with a big ’ol case of mojo.

by TXStampede on Nov 18, 2008 3:36 AM CST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

In the words of the great poet, PB...

“45-35, bitches…”

"There are three kinds of people in this world: those who are good at math, and those who aren't..."

--GA Horn--

by GAHorn on Nov 18, 2008 8:29 AM CST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

USC

I really don’t see any way USC can be chosen over any of the Big 12 teams that might finish with only one loss. The narrative for this season wouldn’t allow for it.

by orangeblood1 on Nov 18, 2008 8:59 AM CST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Don't ever doubt media love for all things USC

If Tech beats OU and loses the B12 Title game (or vice versa), USC will definitely be in the discussion after they plow Notre Dame by 45.

by the1austin on Nov 18, 2008 1:10 PM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Love this year....

I know it has been stated but if you would have given me an option of a 11-1 Texas team playing in a BCS game (Fiesta) at the beginning of this year, I would have bought that option quickly and not looked back!

I am really looking forward to crushing the Aglets next Thursday and a year that we beat both OU and A&M is fantastic. Additionally, we should be in a position to win a third straight BCS game (5th straight bowl win) and finish 12-1. Yes, the NCG game would be great but I just want us to play in a BCS game and not be relegated to the Cotton Bowl.

Think of this also. If OU gets to the NCG and has to play Florida, it could get ugly for the Sooners and I think Stoops may lose his 5th straight BCS bowl game – that will be no laughing matter to the trailer nation – Texas – 5 straight bowl wins (three of them BCS wins) and OU 5 straight BCS losses). Which would you rather have to end the season?

Longhorns everywhere, 2009 is set up very nicely for us.

 

by texascfo on Nov 18, 2008 9:29 AM CST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Amen!

This year has far exceeded my expectations. The Horns answered all the pundits marvelously this year. Hook’em

ATX

by Atownatx on Nov 18, 2008 9:51 AM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

re
Longhorns everywhere, 2009 is set up very nicely for us.

Yes, but…2008 was “set up very nicely” for Ohio State. And OU. And USC. And Georgia.

I realize many feel we’ve overachieved this year, but we were (are?) thisclose to reaching the MNC this year. There are no guarantees next year, and it still sucks that we may be shut out from the MNC, even after a stellar 2008 and an OU beatdown.

by jc25 on Nov 18, 2008 1:53 PM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Plus

Our schedule does us no favors in the SOS dept next year. Besides the OU tilt and OSU in Stillwater, it’s possible we don’t face another ranked team all year. Which means having to go 12-0 to make the MNC is a distinct possibility.

by jc25 on Nov 18, 2008 1:57 PM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

That is possible this year as well

11-1 does not always cut it, even if you have the toughest SOS in the country.

by Wells on Nov 18, 2008 7:20 PM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Agreed

But again, we could still see an 11-1 UF v 11-1 OU matchup.

If we drop one, even early, next year, I don’t think we’ll have the SOS or late-game top-tier match-ups to be able to pull that off.

by jc25 on Nov 19, 2008 3:27 PM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Also depends on who to

Dropping one to a south team this year could cost us a shot at the big 12 title, which could in turn cost us a shot at the MNC.

If we were sitting at 11-1 right now with a loss to say, Colorado, and OU wins this weekend, our shot at getting to the MNC is probably much greater with the extra quality game (and win) under our belt.

by BoddickerIsClutch on Nov 19, 2008 4:15 PM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I'm rooting for OU-Florida in the MNC

and texas-USC in another BCS bowl

I want USC to be exposed for the average, no-offense-having team they are.

by Beergut on Nov 18, 2008 10:00 AM CST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

As much as I think it is bogus how high USC is

They do have an awesome defense, and with their talent and with several weeks preparation, they’ll probably give anyone a good game.

by TheElusiveShadow on Nov 18, 2008 6:41 PM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

If Tech loses

While we have gotten accustomed to winning our 10+/yr, the luxury it does afford us is that we are always in the discussion.

If Tech loses to OU, I truly believe that the voters will unfairly move them down to #7 or 8. I have no love of the Pirates, but do have a sense of fairness. The only good outcome of this dramatic drop is that I do not believe OU jumps us in the polls. The realignment in the coaches poll already reflects this.

Mack’s consistent winning and the TEXAS brand helps us significantly. This of course can also be said for the OUs, USCs, NDs, Mich of the world. The Techs and OkSt have to really make incredible statements.

Just rambling

by ethan on Nov 18, 2008 10:08 AM CST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

If Tech loses, and OU beats the Pokes...

It will be hard for Tech fans to swallow, but they will also be stuck playing a terrible LSU team in the Cotton Bowl.

by the1austin on Nov 18, 2008 1:12 PM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

if Tech loses I think texas will need a blowout win over A&M to make a statement

and push themselves ahead of OU

all you need is to blowout A&M (shouldn’t be too difficult given our lack of OL and defense) and a close win for OU over Okie State

by Beergut on Nov 18, 2008 10:11 AM CST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Defense - 45th to 25th

Finished the season last year 45th in scoring defense; improved this year to 25th and lead the conference – I would say that is a marked and significant improvement and a pretty decent national ranking considering the offenses in our conference.

by djwsatx on Nov 18, 2008 11:01 AM CST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Passing Efficiency D has also improved

Ill say it again like I did in that other thread, passing defense (pure yards) its basically meaningless. A more meaningful stat by far is Passing Efficiency D. And while that too can be skewed nationally by the opponents we face, we can at the very least say that we should rank near the top of our conference.

We have gone from 6th in the conference in 2007 to 3rd in the conference so far in 2008 and the two teams above us (Tech, OU) have some good passing offenses left, while we have Aggie. We could easily finish as #2 in the conference, which is much closer to our perception of where we should be.

Imo with our money and talent, anytime we are 6th in our own conference, something is not being done correctly. And theres little question the offenses this year are better with all the returning QBs.

by BoddickerIsClutch on Nov 18, 2008 12:39 PM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

This is an under appreciated stat . . .

Top scoring defense in the Big 12 after playing all the heavies.

Lone TD against Kansas was the result of a stupid penalty and a brilliant, but miraculous, catch. Nine points allowed to Tech were with the OFFENSE on the field. Lone Arkansas TD was a fumble return by the backup QB. Four Mizzou TDs came after the game was out of reach.

Etc.

by edsp on Nov 18, 2008 1:38 PM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Apocalyptic Nightmare

TTU loses (as I expect them to) in Norman. Everyone wins out from there. My understanding is, in a 3 way tie, it breaks for UT. This is where I expect it will get nasty. With the voters, and the crushing weight of the WWL, it is easy to see OU overtake Texas in the polls, despite that issue having already been decided on the field. I see it easily. This is the network that propounded the invincibility of USC and OU, while ignoring a hella’ talented, tough Auburn team (don’t even get me started on what happens when they both start MAKING the BCS through their hype, in addition to reporting/broadcasting it…does anyone have a doubt that we’ll see USC every year if they go 11-1?)

by Stuck in the Plains on Nov 18, 2008 12:37 PM CST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Random question

I know that Texas had a two-and-one scheduled with Utah at one time, and I seem to recall that the series would have been played 2006-08. I also seem to recall that Utah asked to cancel it, ostensibly due to scheduling complications which arose by adding a ninth team (TCU) to the Mountain West.

Am I recalling that correctly? If so, an undefeated Utah has no one to blame but themselves for not being in the national championship conversation right now.

by kjm017 on Nov 18, 2008 12:47 PM CST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Not to be a cynic, but something not mentioned that helps us in a tie is...

…our money, er fanbase. Longhorns are everywhere, they travel well, and they definitely buy well. I have to think that there is something to that in luring us into the spotlight. As far as GameDay endorsements…TX/OU (dramatic win), TX/Mizzou (blowout), TX/TTech (dramatic loss)…what more do you want? We’re not only a fantastic team, we’re an amazing brand. IMG better earn their fee and do everything possible to get both Colt the Heisman he deserves, and the bowl game we’ve earned.

by KevinJ on Nov 18, 2008 12:59 PM CST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

OU has a similar fan base.. All the major programs do.

The only one that doesn’t is Tech, but with this being their first BCS appearance, and with that offense and star power, bowl games won’t discount the draw they bring with them.

by the1austin on Nov 18, 2008 1:13 PM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

We had a Tragedy at Tech

And I don’t want to compound that with another tragedy where Tech gets beat by OU and we watch OU ( sucks ) leapfrog us after we brought home the hat from Dallas… again. I would die inside.

I’ll root for the Tech > OU, then I can root for Mizzou to take out Tech at the Big 12 Championship game.

If I do anything else, I’ll feel dirty in the morning.

by notsofst on Nov 18, 2008 1:27 PM CST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I don't see why..

Everyone thinks OU will leapfrog us. We beat OU on a neutral field and then beat two more top 11 teams in the next two weeks. Tech had to pull one out of their ass in the last second of the game to beat us ( on their own field. ) We also went to Lawrence and spanked some Jayhawk ass by 28, while O-Who struggled with them on their own field! So how can anyone justify that if O-who wins at home against a very, very, very, VERY lucky Tech team that they belong ranked ahead of Texas? Am I just being an idiot or does anyone else agree with me?

by TexasFight7 on Nov 18, 2008 2:12 PM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

The polls

They tend to have a “what have you won for me lately” aspect to them….and OU could finish off by beating Tech and OSU.

So you're saying that now I have to think of some witty Sig that will be applicable across all the SBN sites? Go TexanHornStros!

by Shake on Nov 18, 2008 2:50 PM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

We did not pull one out of our ass.

You guys led in that game for about 1:38 seconds. We took the lead in the first four minutes and didn’t relinquish it until the end. We outgained you by over 200 yards. The ending was dramatic but just as easily could have finished with us sending the kicker out after a Michael Crabtree incomplete pass on that last down. TOP = 23 minutes to 36 minutes. Kudos to Texas for being in the game, but that we "pull"ed “one out of” our “ass” is revisionist.

In any event, we weren’t lucky when we beat Kansas (on the road) by 42 or OSU by 36, were we?

Go register. Or else.

by Skin Patrol on Nov 18, 2008 4:13 PM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Nope

That OSU game was a beatdown. Irvin needs to go pro, like, today. Its like when we had Roy Williams, except, you guys know that passing to him a lot is a good idea.

by BoddickerIsClutch on Nov 18, 2008 5:01 PM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

“Its like when we had Roy Williams, except, you guys know that passing to him a lot is a good idea.”

Haha, this made me laugh.

by TheElusiveShadow on Nov 18, 2008 6:43 PM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Do I get a vote?

by TT_ on Nov 18, 2008 8:29 PM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

So go 12-0 next year if SOS is not as strong.......

 
With the strength of the Texas team returning, it should be easier then. Beat OU and OSU in Stillwater and the rest of the games including Tech in Austin should be wins. I know it is tough but until a playoff is established, just about EVERY top 10 school year in and year out will have this happen at some time.

by texascfo on Nov 18, 2008 3:04 PM CST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I assume this was meant as a response to my comment

And I agree it should be easier. But, for example, Ohio State was thought to have an “easy” schedule…they returned a truckload, and had one significant hurdle. The thought was, beat USC, and there’s your MNC invite. Turns out, they’re not even the best team in their own conference.

by jc25 on Nov 19, 2008 3:30 PM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

agree jc25

sorry for the way I responded to your comment. 2009 OU game followed by trips back to back with Missouri and Okie State will make the season. I am not as worried about Missouri as Chase is gone but that Okie State game will be the Texas Tech game of 2009 for us. The rest of the schedule is soft.

by texascfo on Nov 19, 2008 7:14 PM CST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

simple solution?

I’m sorry PB, but I CANNOT root for Oklahoma. Hearing boomer sooner all game would make my stomach turn. I know Tech needs to lose so I wouldnt root for Tech either.

My solution: Root against Texas Tech. It might be the same thing as rooting for oklahoma, but if my heart believes I’m not doing it then I’m not doing it.

-flo

by bleed burnt orange on Nov 20, 2008 11:29 AM CST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

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