Sagarin Computer Rating: Texas #3

Sagarin's already pulled the lever and... Texas will be #3 in his rankings that count for the BCS, ahead of Penn State. The new #1? The Red Raiders. Sagarin's Top 10:

1. Texas Tech
2. Alabama
3. Texas
4. Penn State
5. Utah
6. Oklahoma
7. Florida
8. Boise State
9. Georgia
10. Oklahoma State

More on all this in the forthcoming New Stakes post.

about 1 year ago Peter Bean 12 comments 0 recs |

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

Computers vs Humans

How much of a difference will there be between the computers and the human voters? Overall, I think the computers love this team right now and will continue to keep the Horns somewhere in the Top 5 but the human element may drop us a little farther. What are your thoughts?

by HornsFaninCalifornia on Nov 2, 2008 2:24 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

for some reason i was dismissed very quicly

for suggesting tech would be 1, 2, or 3 at worst. Theyve accomplished more than Penn State to date for sure. Bamas debatable I guess, but they havent beaten a #1 team.

by Blitzburgh on Nov 2, 2008 2:34 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

yea I really don't think

human voters should punish us for losing at TT by the length of a razor blade. But then again I’m biased. We still have the best wins bar none and our loss isn’t even bad. It’s cool though Alabama, Texas Tech, and Oklahoma still have one loss in them I think. I also feel Penn State will have trouble with Michigan State. They may be thinking ahead to the championship game when they play each other.

by clra2 on Nov 2, 2008 3:03 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Losses...

a. Bama will lose either to LSU or in the SEC CG
b. Tech will lose to OSU and/or OU
c. I have a feeling that OU will go down to Okie Lt
d. I’m not so sure Penn St will lose any of the remaining three games so pencil them in for now

But the Horns still have to take care of business the rest of the way and in the Big 12 CG (if we get there)
Saying all that, would that be enough to vault our Horns into Miami? Fla could have a lot to say about this matter as well.

by HornsFaninCalifornia on Nov 2, 2008 3:17 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

When do the other computer ratings come out?

by HornsFaninCalifornia on Nov 2, 2008 3:48 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

sagarin

Why am I seeing different current Sagarin Rankings?

I’m seeing:

PennSt, #2 Texas, #3 Florida, #4 Alabama, #5 TTech…

by Robman419 on Nov 2, 2008 3:57 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

ok found it…

by Robman419 on Nov 2, 2008 3:59 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

i’m seeing the same, do we need to re-sort the list? how did you get the right list

by Displaced Longhorn on Nov 2, 2008 10:46 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

oh, just go by elo_chess rating?

by Displaced Longhorn on Nov 2, 2008 10:47 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

the problem is with a loss this late in the season, i almost want to say that a 1-loss florida team has a better chance to get into the NC game vs a 1-loss texas team.

i hate this system so much, but there’s nothing we can do about it.

by longhornricky on Nov 2, 2008 4:15 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Just depends

On a lot of different things. If Texas does manage to get to Kansas City and win, our head-to-head with Florida isn’t so bad at all. Remember, at that point we’ve got Top 20 wins over OU, OSU, Mizzou (twice)—which the computers will reward us handily for—and one close loss to Tech on the road. UF would have Top 20 wins over UGA and Bama, with a close loss at home to Ole Miss.

We may or may not win that head-to-head, depending on a billion things we couldn’t know right now, but I mean to point out: Texas is and will be an exceptionally competitive one-loss team for Miami consideration, especially if it gets to Kansas City.

To your larger point: Amen. This system sucks.

--PB--

by Peter Bean on Nov 2, 2008 4:20 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

POLITICALLY CORRECT COMPUTER RATINGS

Jeff Sagarin uses a combination of two systems, one called ELO-CHESS, which is ’politically correct", just considers wins and losses, and does not reward a team if they beat the crap out of somebody. ELO-CHESS is used by the BCS. In this one Texas Tech is indeed #1.

The other system, called PREDICTOR, takes into account final scores and is a better predictor of the result of future games, and is more ‘Vegas’ oriented. PREDICTOR has Southern Cal #1.

The Sagarin Ratings actually have Penn State number 1. His Ratings combine ELO-CHESS and PREDICTOR.

If you have read this far, you are almost as bad a college football nerd as I am.

For the Glory of Old State!
Go Nittany Lions!

by joefromboalsburg on Nov 2, 2008 11:35 AM CST reply actions 0 recs