The New Stakes: Texas' Road To The Big 12 Title Game & Miami
by Peter Bean on Nov 2, 2008 3:12 AM CDT
in Texas Longhorns Football
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PrintThough it's worth spending time dissecting Texas' loss in Lubbock, at heart Longhorns fans want to look forward: Fine, fine. I saw it. And it was painful. But we're not out of these title races yet, are we?
We are not. Below a Sunday morning guide to the New Stakes...
PREPARE TO ROOT FOR... TEAMS FROM OKLAHOMA
At some point, you've probably reasoned with yourself, "The only way I'd root for the Sooners is if..." Well, it's time to complete that thought. The time is now.
INESCAPABLE TRUTH #1: TEXAS TECH CONTROLS ITS DESTINY. If The Red Raiders win out, they're going to Kansas City. If they win in Kansas City, they're going to Miami. Though human voters could in theory vault Penn State up far enough ahead of Tech that the Red Raiders would miss the title game... they won't. An undefeated Big 12 champion is going to play for it all this year.
With that said, if Texas Tech loses one or more game down the stretch, everything's back in play for the Longhorns....
TEXAS TECH REMAINING SCHEDULE
11/08 vs Oklahoma State
11/15 at Oklahoma
11/29 vs Baylor
Scenario 1: Texas Tech loses 2 of 3. If the Red Raiders drop two of their final three games, the Longhorns--should they win out--would win the South Division and head to Kansas City for the Big 12 Title.
Scenario 2: Texas Tech loses only to OU or OSU, but not both. Now it gets complicated:
- Texas must win out.
- Team that beats Tech must also win other remaining games, including Bedlam in Norman.
Why #2? If, for example, OSU beat Texas Tech, the Red Raiders beat OU, and then OU defeated OSU, only the Longhorns and Red Raiders would remain as one-loss Big XII South teams. And we lose the head-to-head tiebreaker. So if OSU beats Tech next Saturday, Tech either must lose another game or OSU must subsequently win its final two--including over OU in Norman.
What happens in the event of a three-way tie atop the Big 12 South standings? From the official rules:
Though Texas fans' eyes should remain focused first on the Big 12, the tiebreaker procedure means that we should be looking beyond our borders, as well. Below I've got my projected rooting guide, as broken down by getting to Kansas CIty and Miami.
THE ROAD TO KANSAS CITY: TEXAS FAN ROOTING GUIDE
Root for Oklahoma State over Texas Tech. This is a tricky one, actually, as an OSU win over Tech, then Tech win over OU, then OU win over OSU would mean Tech to Kansas City. BUT... If Texas Tech loses this game, then we're down just to Oklahoma over Tech in Norman for the Longhorns to win the South. And though Texas can win the various tiebreak scenarios, the two-loss Tech is the only guarantee. (Again, assuming Texas wins out.)
- If Tech beats OSU: Root for Oklahoma over Texas Tech. The most realistic one-loss Tech scenario? Probably. Here, Oklahoma would then need to beat OSU to secure the three-way tie in the Big 12 South, moving the tie-break to the BCS Standings.
- If Tech loses to OSU: Root for Oklahoma over Tech or, failing that, OSU over OU. If Tech loses to Oklahoma State and Oklahoma, Texas goes to Kansas City. If Tech loses to OSU and then beats OU, the Longhorns need the Cowboys to win in Norman.
THE ROAD TO MIAMI: TEXAS FAN ROOTING GUIDE
1. Root for two Texas Tech losses. The path of least resistance to Kansas City.
2. Root for OSU as the one-loss tiebreak team with TX and TTU. I think we're guaranteed to win that BCS Standings match up.
3. Root for OU as the one-loss tie-break team with TX and TTU. Pretty sure this would come down to Texas or OU. (Tech fans, take note: you probably need to win out to go to KC.) The juicy question would be Texas vs OU in the BCS Standings. Honestly, it'd largely be up to the human voters, who would have to decide between seven-straight Oklahoma and head-to-head winner Texas. I like our chances, especially given that we played Missouri.
4. Root for Texas to destroy its final three opponents. Style points are in play in many of these scenarios, as Texas may well need help from the human voters to break some ties. Pour it on, Longhorns.
5. Root against TCU. The Sooners could wind up with a valuable non-con win in their belt if TCU wins out. In any Texas vs OU BCS Standings showdown, the worse TCU finishes, the better.
6. Root for Missouri to win out. Texas needs this to be as impressive a feather in its cap as possible.
7. Root for Iowa or Michigan State over Penn State. The Nittany Lions' road game at Iowa this Saturday is by far the biggest danger. Iowa's better than most realize. And Sparty ain't winning in Happy Valley.
8. Root for SEC chaos. If Penn State loses? The Big 12 probably needn't fret: any one-loss champ would likely be Miami-bound. (With an eye on USC.) But if Penn State wins out? The SEC and Big 12 champs may be battling for one spot. In which case Texas fans would want the SEC winner to emerge with as many scars as possible.
9. Root for Texas' non-conference opponents. Reverse course on Florida Atlantic, UTEP, Rice, and Arkansas, cheering them on to strong finishes, which would help Texas in the computers.
10. Root for Cal over USC. The Trojans should be out of this discussion, but they could do well enough with human voters to spoil here. To be safe, it wouldn't hurt for them to drop one.
11. Root against Oregon State. Two-bird stone here if Oregon State tanks down the stretch, as USC's loss looks worse and Penn State's win loses value.
12. Root against Ohio State. Another two-bird stone here if Ohio State flails a bit to close the year: both USC and Penn State lose credit for what could be considered a strong win.
13. Root for Colt McCoy Heisman Hype. If Colt is the guy receiving the most Heisman hype when all the regular season dust settles, it'll only help with human voters. If you think this is absurd... it is. Welcome to the BCS.
Got all that? Yeah, it's a lot to wrap your head around. And with each passing week we'll have a more precise idea of where things stand and what needs to happen going forward. First up: recover from tonight's loss and wallop Baylor in Austin. And tune in next Saturday night as Mike Gundy brings his Cowboys to Lubbock. For Texas Tech, it'll be the biggest game in program history once again.
Welcome to our hell. And best of luck.
Go Cowboys.
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Who knew
that one dropped interception would make me feel all dirty as to root for OU. Bleh.
Incredible
That close to one of the most amazing wins in school history. Instead, one of the most crushing defeats, with Texas fans reduced to cheering on Oklahoma.
It’s a game of inches, huh?
--PB--
like meeting an amazing woman
and forgetting to ask for her number.
Option
You could root for Baylor instead. Root really hard.
Before you criticize someone, walk a mile in their shoes. If they get mad, you're a mile away AND you have their shoes.
Gideon has been such a bright spot.
But, I fear that he may have had a “Phillip Geiggar” like moment in that game. Many Texas fans will never forget that play.
PB, what about this...
Is there any scenario that would land Texas in Miami without stepping foot in KC?
by HornsFaninCalifornia on Nov 2, 2008 3:46 AM CDT reply actions
Yeah
But it’s one of those super-chaos things. (If you extend the chaos far enough, all sorts of scenarios are in play. The above are the most likely/least chaotic ones.) But try this out:
1) Texas wins out
2) Tech beats OSU
3) OU beats Tech and OSU
4) OU barely wins the BCS Standings tie-breaker over Texas and Tech
5) OU loses Big XII title game
6) Either Penn State or the SEC Champ is warted
Say, for example, Penn State dropped to Iowa in the above, but the SEC Champ (Bama or Florida) finished #1 in the BCS Standings. Texas, without going to KC, would be battling one-loss PSU (we win), one-loss Texas Tech (we win computers, do we win humans?), and one-loss USC (from a weak Pac 10). Texas could very plausibly finish #2.
You could imagine it several other ways, too. Texas Tech could win out and tank in the Big 12 title game, while PSU/SEC/USC left open a spot for a non-Big 12 title winning Texas team.
Remember: we’ve got wins over MU, OSU, and OU under our belts. Depending how the year ends, that’s a tough “top three wins” to beat.
--PB--
can thank robert griffins
first pick as a college QB for keeping mizzou in the ‘quality’ win category. they barely escaped.
Beyond, uber-super chaos
It is beyond super chaos.
In the scenario above, Texas Tech would also finish at 11-1 with wins over Texas and Ok State, USC would likely finish at 11-1 and have won their weak conference, and Penn State would be 11-1 and have won their weak conference. As unfair as it is to compare conferences with and without conference title games, I’m not sure that Texas would win the argument in the polls after not winnning their division outright and not even playing in their conference title game. Our computer rankings would still be very good but the computers only count for 1/3 of the BCS total now. We would have to win in the minds of pollsters.
It would certainly strengthen our chances to have USC drop another game but still win the Pac 10 and for Penn State to drop two down the stretch and still win the Big 10. In that case, pollsters would be deciding between Texas and Tech and not between all four teams.
So, yeah, I guess, it is still possible to reach Miami without playing in Kansas City, but it is highly, highly unlikely.
--AW--
Mack factor
Maybe Mack could whine us in like in 2004.
Before you criticize someone, walk a mile in their shoes. If they get mad, you're a mile away AND you have their shoes.
No way Texas makes it to the MNC without winning the Big 12
I just don’t see it happening. Texas would need the Big 12 Title game to get some more support in the polls (even though a second beating of MiZZOU might not even help with that). The SEC champion, assuming Alabama or Florida has one loss, will definitely be ahead of Texas that last weekend.
To be honest, I can’t come up with a legitimate way for Texas to win the Big 12 South. Absent Tech losing twice, I can’t come up with it. If Oklahoma beats Tech, they would pass us in the BCS. A three way tie with Tech, OU, and UT ends with OU highest in the BCS pecking order.
I think our best shot, hands down, is for Texas Tech to lose two games. They have to be against OSU and OU. We beat OU in the tiebreaker. So, I am not going to play with scenarios for one more week. That game will dictate a lot for us.
Go Pokes.
Not as bad in the past
Maybe I just hate OU more, but this cheering against other teams is not as bad as in the past. I think it is because OU does not control their own destiny for once. Also, I think Tech is more likely to lose at least one game than OU normally has been.
better than 50-50 chance of making it to miami
hi guys. long time lurker, first time poster. just wanted to say, as i see it, we have a better than 50-50 chance of going to the conf title game. tech is going to lose one or both of their next two games. funny thing is, i think they’ll probably get crushed by osu the way osu took down mizzou, and be competitive, but still come up short, against ou. can you imagine playing and winning “the biggest game in school history”, and then having to repeat that two more times in a row? no way. tech has never been in this position before, and they’ll crumble under the pressure. as an example: we effectively stopped their offense in the second half except for that last, final drive. we bend, but didn’t break. and you could see them start to push things as we got closer and closer, and then finally took the lead. that’s why i don’t think they will survive both osu and ou, so i think we’re still looking pretty good to go to the conference champ here, guys.
As a Mizzou fan:
… my personal experiences lead me to believe that this statement could not have been more correct:
i think they’ll probably get crushed by osu the way osu took down mizzou, and be competitive, but still come up short, against ou. can you imagine playing and winning "the biggest game in school history", and then having to repeat that two more times in a row?
I said last night to a few of my friends that the Tech/UT game REEKED of Mizzou/Kansas. The perennial underachievers finally get over the hump with a huge win in the national spotlight, earning them the nation’s love before walking into a buzzsaw the following week. With that much emotion going into the one single statement game, it’s almost impossible to expect for a repeat performance. If OSU brings its A-game, things will get VERY interesting in Lubbock next week.
Pinkel for America '08
http://www.RockMNation.com
I don't give a Sh-t!
I’ll never, ever root for ou….ever. I will root for Okie Lt. next Saturday though. I never expected us in the hunt this season anyway. Let us win out and go to the post season, weither it is the B12 Championship or a bowl game.
I congratulate TT for playing a great game, both on offense and DEFENSE. I really enjoyed watching our team not give up. One play did not change the outcome. TT won and will lose next weekend to really stir up the B12 South.
Hook’em…………
"Nobody leaves this field until we beat the hell out of them".................... L.J."Louis"Jordan in 1913 before kickoff of the Texas/ou game.
I'm with you
If I rooted for OU and we still didn’t get in, I’d never forgive myself.
Before you criticize someone, walk a mile in their shoes. If they get mad, you're a mile away AND you have their shoes.
No KC but Miami bound regardless?
Here’s an odd scenario:
Let’s assume that the home team holds serve in the upcoming TT-OU-OSU round robin.
As PB points out, that leaves Tech KC bound. But isn’t there a good chance that we might wind up the highest-ranked team in the Big XII? We’d have one loss, as would Tech, but our loss would be earlier in the season than Tech’s, which I think would play a slightly higher factor on where we wind up being ranked than would the fact that Tech beat us. (Just as I suspect that OU will be a place or two above us when polls are released later in the day despite our having defeated them.)
I’d like our chances of getting to Miami in that scenario, particularly with a PSU loss (the biggest bit of help we need), if the pool of one-loss teams are Bama, Florida, USC, PSU, TT and us. I think we could be looking at a UT-SEC champ match-up in that case.
The biggest intangible would we whether voters would start deliberately voting us down a notch or two to keep a team that couldn’t even win its own division from playing for the championship.
Oh, and the biggest thing I’m looking for today in the BCS rankings is where we are relative to USC. If USC gets enough of a bump from voters for being USC and is ahead of us regardless of the computers, the path to Miami will have become close to impossible.
Oops
Oh, and of course I missed the entire discussion above on this same point!
by Hopkins Horn on Nov 2, 2008 11:12 AM CST up reply actions
I’m a TT fan, but not here to talk shit or anything. I just wanted to point out that in the scenario you outlined with Tech beating okstate and losing to OU, and still winding up in the Big12 Championship game, Texas might be ranked higher before that game. If Tech were to win, though, against say Mizzou, it would be fair to assume that Tech would leapfrog Texas in the BCS standing. They wouldn’t be voting Texas down, they would be voting the conference champion up. It would just make more sense to take a one loss conference champion with an extra big-time win. Unless Mizzou won (with 2 losses) and Texas still only had one loss. Then we have a situation like a few years ago with ou going to the NC game and not an actual conf. champ. Don’t know how America would respond to that.
Of course, that is a lot of high pressure wins for Tech to do that, so we’ll just see if Tech can keep up that huge intensity against OKstate this week. I expect another great battle between 2 really good teams.
If Tech does lose to both ok’s, and Texas goes to Conf. championship and wins, hell yeah they deserve to go to Miami. But also don’t overlook that pesky aggy after what they have done the past 2 years. I hope (and am confident) that you stomp the living crap out of them, though.
And one last thing…if Texas does go to and win the NC, that will still be ok with me, if nothing more than Tech could say they beat the National Champions! (of course it would be nicer to be the National Champions ourselves).
WIN OUT
I’m as big into scenarios as anyone, however, it is important to note that none of them mean anything if we let this loss translate into another. Texas must win out. Period.
Baylor is certainly not an elite team but they are explosive on offense and were tied with Missouri late into the 4th quarter yesterday. Kansas is much better than they showed against Tech and would love nothing more than to beat the Horns in Lawrence after the 4th and 18 play four years ago. And, as painful as it is to remember, we’ve lost to the Aggies in each of the last two seasons despite having more to play for and superior talent.
--AW--
Missour in Big 12 game - SOS question
If I’m remembering correctly, the year we lost ot CU in the title game there was alot of talk prior to the game about how winning that game would actually hurt us with the computers. The reasoning went that it would add another loss to a team that was one of our quality wins (we beat them earlier in the year in Austin) and you got no credit for beating a team the second time. It took alot of heat because it was another huge advantage for conferences without title games.
Am I remembering this correctly? If so has this been fixed.
Don't care about any of that crap
We were talking about possible BCS appearances last year, and what happened? We lost to Texas A&M – again.
Lets focus on Robert Griffin and Baylor, and then we play @ KU. With our sudden injury plague, nothing is a sure thing. No BYE weeks either to take advantage of. At least Tech gets a BYE after the OK State game. Big time luxury.
by goingforthecorner on Nov 2, 2008 11:38 AM CST reply actions
That's good
But we could really use a BYE before the end of our difficult portion of the schedule, not after.
by goingforthecorner on Nov 2, 2008 12:59 PM CST up reply actions
More to enjoy
Now we can root for multiple teams each weekend, I love it. Fun Saturdays to come.
In Mack Brown We Trust!
I thought
Bedlam was in Stillwater this year… makes it more likely for a pokes win..
Hard work beats talent when talent fails to work hard. OU SUCKS!!
by LadyLonghorninOK on Nov 2, 2008 12:12 PM CST reply actions
The outcome depends on Texas Tech.......
If Texas Tech beats Oklahoma State and OU beats both Texas Tech and Oklahoma State, there will/should be a three way tie in the Big 12 south (OU, Tech, UT.) The team ranked highest in the BCS would then go to the Big 12 championship which would be OU being that they would have beaten 2 top 10/15 ranked teams in Texas Tech and O-State. The remaining teams on UT’s schedule (Baylor, ATM, Kansas) could hurt them BCS wise in these final weeks of the season where as OU’s remaining opponents (ATM, Tech, O-State) will help. However, if O-State beats Texas Tech, OU can kiss their chances goodbye. There would then be if OU beat Tech and OSU a two way tie between OU and Texas and Texas would obviously go to the Big 12 CG due to the fact that they beat OU. Heres to the Red Raiders beating the Pokes……
BOOMER!!
Kansas
won’t hurt them..they are a bowl team
BCS Bowl Anyway
If Tech wins out and ends up in Miami, what bowl game does that put us in? Against who?
Well, assuming we win out...
We would have the 2nd best Big XII record, which I assume would put us in the Fiesta, or maybe Rose depending on the situation with PSU, Florida, Bama, etc.
"Either we need to re-calibrate our rectangle, or Alfonzo Marquez is not having a good night." - Josh Lewin
Mad and happy at the same time
How pissed are am I that we lost? Like you wouldn’t believe.
How freaking happy am I that we can have this conversation about our BCS/MNC chances when our expectations on the season weren’t that high? Like you wouldn’t believe.
That's beyond ridiculous
Any voter who puts any one-loss team ahead of Texas is completely insane. USC has one win over a respectable team, a loss to a respectable team, and a bunch of cupcakes. OU has two decent wins (Kansas and TCU), but lost to Texas. Florida destroyed Georgia but has no other really good wins (I suppose they get some credit for exposing LSU as a fraud), but lost to a mediocre 5-4 team. Compared to Texas having two great wins (neither OU nor OkState have lost to anyone else), another very good one (Missouri), and a loss to a team that’s currently unbeaten, there’s simply no excuse for voting any other one-loss team ahead of them.
OU could conceivably catch up by beating Tech and OkState, but I don’t think TCU + Kansas > Missouri + head-to-head win. Ditto for OkState (who doesn’t have the good out-of-conference win). Florida would have Georgia/Alabama/LSU (assuming they win the SEC title game), but I don’t think that beats OU/OkState/Missouri (especially when their loss is to Ole Miss and yours is to Texas Tech). USC … don’t even get me started.
If Texas wins out, I cannot see any excuse for any one-loss team (aside from Texas Tech, and even then it’s really close) being ahead of them. It really should be that simple (although knowing that Billingsley is involved gives me no confidence that sanity will prevail).
Hate to say it
but if OU wins out, they will jump us in the BCS. i agree that it’s absolutely absurd that they are ahead of us in the Harris and Coaches polls, but that being the case, we’re screwed if they win out. we need big time style points in Lawrence, but even if we beat them like Tech did, I’m not sure it would counteract the momentum OU would get both with voters and with the computers by beating Tech and OSU in successive weeks to close out the season, even if they’re squeekers. if we were ahead of OU in the two human polls right now, it might be a different story.
our best and maybe only shot is Tech losing twice (or maybe OSU winning out and Tech beating OU). if we can get to KC and win, then we’ve got a good shot at the Orange Bowl. if not, it’s looking like a solid 11-1 season and a trip to the Fiesta, which still would be a damn fine season and beyond a lot of our expectations.
by littlevisigoth on Nov 3, 2008 9:50 AM CST up reply actions
On the plus side
Starting next week, we have lots more games to care about and enjoy.
In Mack Brown We Trust!
BCS vs AP
I know we live in the BCS era, but also consider there is still a shot at the AP national championship if we don’t get to Miami and BCS chaos reigns. A long shot I know, but a national championship is a national championship. Your thoughts?
by HornsFaninCalifornia on Nov 2, 2008 6:02 PM CST reply actions
See, isn't this fun?!?!?
See how much fun all this is? Just think how boring it would be if it was a basketball-style NCAA bracket playoff. We’d miss out on all this prognosticating and bench racing!
Now, I rooted for Texas when they beat the Tr*jans a couple years back, so y’all get to root for my Sooners… at least for the next couple weeks :-)
First-class blog you all got here. Thanks for letting me participate. Boomer! Pete in California
Herbstreit Voted Texas #7
So did 13 others in the AP. Herbie did find it in his heart to rank Texas 1 spot above Oklahoma State, even though he though OU belonged 2 spots ahead of UT.
http://pollspeak.com/pollstalker/pollstalker.php?s=5&p=9&t1=94&v=40&w=11&r=T
Check out Pollspeak.
Best case scenario
OK state beats tech and OU, OU beats Tech, they both lose the rest of their games. Now that would be beautiful for us. It’ll never happen, but it won’t keep me from dreaming.
USA Today’s choice is complete BS. USC is a trash team this year really. Who ranks trash above a top caliber team? I don’t want to see Texas versus USC this season in a bowl. That would be a worthless bowl for us. I put OK State over USC any day. I would like to see those two go into a bowl game. I’d put a hundred that USC would be shown as the trash they are this year.
TEXAS FIGHT
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