Numbers Game: BCS Analysis
by billyzane on Nov 24, 2008 10:17 AM CST
in Texas Longhorns Football
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PrintEnough with the niceties. Down to the nitty-gritty of the BCS numbers. Note that the 1 member of the Harrris Poll that forgot to vote last week is back so the "Last Week's Points" amount is irrelevant for that poll.
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Analysis? You want analysis? Follow me after the jump.
Fact 1 Pisses Me Off : OU jumped Texas in both human polls. This is disheartening, but not entirely unexpected given the infantile memory capacity of most human voters. "Ooh, OU is shiny! Gimme Gimme!"
Fact 2 Provides a Glimmer of Hope: Texas still has a chance, albeit a slim one, to be ranked ahead of OU in the BCS even if OU beats OSU. Texas is barely behind OU in the Harris Poll and it seems as though Florida might be a buffer between OU and Texas on many ballots. A Florida loss to Florida State might just give Texas enough points in the human polls assuming Texas retains it's computer advantage, which is of course not a given.
Fact 3 Thanks the Red Raiders for Playing: Brad Edwards' speculation notwithstanding, Texas Tech is no longer in the national championship conversation. This fact is unspeakably HUGE for Texas. Even if OU loses to OSU and Tech goes to Kansas City and beats Missouri, I am about 90% certain that Tech cannot pass Texas in the BCS (as unfair as that might sound), meaning Texas will go to Miami. If OU goes to KC and loses to Missouri, Tech will likewise not pass Texas in the BCS.
For the Preceding Reasons, Fact 4: If OU loses another game and Texas beats A&M, the Horns will in all likelihood be headed to Miami.
Fact 5 Gives You Rooting Directions: Above all else, root for Baylor to beat Texas Tech and Florida State to beat Florida. If Baylor wins, then OU doesn't matter and that's pretty great. If Florida loses, there are two benefits. First, it eliminates any buffer in between OU and Texas in the human polls, increasing the possibility that Texas will be ranked ahead of OU in the BCS, and second, it dramatically increases the possibility of SEC chaos (i.e. 2-loss Florida wins the SEC) that would automatically send Texas to Miami if Texas wins out. A lower-level rooting interest would be OSU over OU. I think this sends Texas to the national championship game, but it also eliminates Texas from the Big 12 race (unless Baylor beats Tech). Also, hell, root for Auburn against Bama. Chaos in the SEC is good for Texas.
Just to Reiterate Fact 6 Yet Again: USC is out of this, barring some serious chaos. In any event, USC will not under any circumstances pass Texas if Texas wins out. Stop worrying about USC. They are way too far behind in both the human and the computer polls. Look at the numbers from the human polls: USC is basically right where you'd expect a #5 team to be, points-wise, whereas Texas is way ahead of where you'd expect a #4 to be. Plus USC is way behind in the computers and has no good games left with which to move up (Notre Dame and UCLA).
To the Computers!
| A&H | Billingsley | Colley | Massey | Sagarin | Wolfe | Average | Diff. from Expected | Team |
| 25 | 25 | 24 | 22 | 23 | 25 | .970 | -.030 | Alabama |
| 23 | 23 | 25 | 24 | 25 | 24 | .960 | Even | Texas |
| 22 | 24 | 21 | 25 | 22 | 22 | .900 | -.020 | Oklahoma |
| 21 | 22 | 20 | 23 | 24 | 23 | .890 | +.010 | Texas Tech |
| 24 | 20 | 23 | 21 | 21 | 21 | .860 | +.020 | Utah |
| 20 | 19 | 22 | 20 | 19 | 19 | .780 | -.020 | Florida |
| 19 | 16 | 19 | 17 | 18 | 20 | .730 | -.030 | Penn State |
| 16 | 21 | 18 | 19 | 16 | 18 | .710 | -.010 | USC |
Encouraging Fact 7 That's Actually Not That Encouraging: Texas is still ranked quite a bit ahead of OU, though the margin is decreasing. Note though that OU is a weak #3, below what we would expect from a consensus #3. This means that even without overtaking Texas, they can still increase their computer scores relative to Texas. That's not good.
Speculation That I'm Not Even Going to Pretend is Fact 8: OU probably isn't going to pass Texas in the computers as a whole even with a win over Oklahoma State. They will be close, however. Right now, the computers are what's keeping Texas ahead of OU in the BCS. I'm not sure it's going to be enough unless a few human voters change their minds. Which, for the record, I think is entirely possible. Many human voters undoubtedly got caught up in the Sooners' awe-inspiring final score vs. Tech. But a week later, with the magical pixie dust wiped from their eyes, will some voters think to themselves, "You know, I have Texas Tech ranked #8 on my ballot, so this isn't really a discussion of a 3-way tie. This is between Texas and OU. And I do seem to vaguely recall Texas beating OU...maybe I'll make a change"? Possibly a few might be so clear-headed. Or possibly a team like Florida might lose, eliminating a buffer between Texas and OU in the rankings and increasing Texas' points in the human polls more than OU's. I don't know. But either is certainly possible.
Fact 9 is Something I Recently Realized But I'm Scared of Publicizing: Florida is doing so terribly in the computers that it's possible (though not probable) that a 1-loss SEC champion Florida might be ranked behind non-division champ Texas in the BCS. If Florida and Oklahoma both with their conference championships, they will split the #1 human vote while Texas will be a near-unanimous #3. That means that even if Florida is ranked #1, they will be a weak #1. Florida will undoubtedly move up in the computers with wins over FSU and Bama, but look how far behind they are right now. Not only are they 6th in the computers, they're a WEAK 6th. Can they make that distance up? I don't think so. They'd have to bank on being a near-unanimous #1 over Oklahoma in the human polls, and I'm not sure that would be the case. We've all assumed that the winner of the SEC championship would be in Miami (and if it's Bama, I think that's still true, even with a loss to Auburn), but Florida is currently 4th in the BCS and two teams ahead of them (Texas and OU) might not lose the rest of the way. Something to think about.
Speculation Posing as Fact 10 Breaks Down the Ways Texas Gets to Miami: (NB: these all assume a Texas win over A&M.) These are in order from most likely to send Texas to Miami to least likely. To be clear, they are not in order of most likely to actually occur to least likely to actually occur.
- Baylor beats Tech; Texas beats Missouri.
- OU loses to OSU; Tech loses to Missouri.
- Texas wins tiebreaker with OU; Texas beats Missouri.
- Florida loses to Florida State; Florida beats Alabama.
- OU loses to Missouri.
- OU loses to OSU, Texas Tech beats Missouri.
- Bama loses to Auburn; Bama beats Florida.
- Florida, OU and Texas all win out (see Fact 9 infra -- if Florida doesn't pass Texas in the BCS, Texas will definitely go to Miami, but the likelihood of this happening is slim).
There are lots of different things that can happen and there's a lot of football left to be played. So, um, Yes We Can!
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One-loss 'Bama
If ‘Bama has one loss, let’s say to a 2-loss Florida (who lost to FSU) or because they brain-farted against Auburn but beat Florida, I think they’re going to Miami. The voters want to see certain games and they want to see the SEC vs. the Big 12. They’ll vote accordingly and try to screw Texas over as much as possible so our computer advantages won’t hold us up. That’s my cynical take on it. For their to be a rematch, I think Florida and ‘Bama both have to lose, which isn’t likely, and then Florida has to win the SEC championship game. Then both have two losses. Since people have a rather low opinion of the Big 10 and USC is just too far behind in the computers, that will put Texas in the MNC. But a one-loss Alabama, even if they lose to Florida in the SEC championship game, will hold the voters simply because they want to avoid a rematch.
by TheElusiveShadow on Nov 24, 2008 10:33 AM CST reply actions
I agree with you only in part.
If Bama loses their last game of the year, I think they’re out. They’ll drop behind Texas and OU in the human and computer polls, I’m almost positive. If Bama loses to Auburn and beats Florida, I think they’re in. They’ll hurt in the computers a bit, but the humans will put Bama high enough.
I asked this on another thread, maybe you can help
It seems Texas is being punished because they played their tough games in October and UO is being rewarded for playing OSU and Tech late in the year. I know it’s impossible to know who will be good when the opponents are scheduled but it seems to the human voters a victory against #6 OSU in week 8, is less valuable than a UO playing a 2-loss #13 OSU on the last week of the regular season.
Perhaps the most recognizable mascot in sports, and certainly the toughest looking, Bevo is a fixture
Yea it seems that way
I don’t know if you watched the game on Saturday night but they were also counting OU’s win against KU as a “Good win” because they were ranked number 16 at the time. Kind of wierd i thought.
But it seems that the way this is shaping out a lot of things are not going to be fair. The computers will look at a win for OU on Saturday against OSU almost the same as our win back in October. Slight difference due to it being in stillwater.
Adopt-a-recruit: Devon Kennard DE
Phoenix (AZ) Desert Vista 6'3" 257lbs
Its going to be tough
I just hope the Coaches and Harris poll voters will look at it after its all said and done and say, Texas Dominated that team in the second half and they won the game on the field they should be ranked ahead of OU.
There was an article that i can’t seem to find that blamed the Big 12 for having a flawed system like the BCS as a tie breaker.
SEC tie breaker takes into account how far away one team is in the rankings. And if the Big 12 used the same system Texas would go because Tech is 5 back of either team they end up taking the head-to-head for Texas and OU.
The big 10 factors in the your overall wins vs Div 1 teams which again Texas would be in because OU would only have 10 wins against D-1 schools. (Chattanooga)
Adopt-a-recruit: Devon Kennard DE
Phoenix (AZ) Desert Vista 6'3" 257lbs
Here is the article
http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/football/news?slug=dw-oklahoma112308&prov=yhoo&type=lgns
by Longhorn in Canada on Nov 24, 2008 10:49 AM CST up reply actions
Sorry, the link doesn't work
Go to Yahoo sports and look for the Dan Wetzel archive
by Longhorn in Canada on Nov 24, 2008 10:51 AM CST up reply actions
OU will definitely make up at least .02 in the computers,
and possibly .03 as I covered in this fanpost. If we lose any ground in the human polls, we’re sunk. The margin for error is non-existent. Mack needs to hit the campaign trail.
I expect OU adds more than 0.03 in CPU
Currently OU is 5th in the Colley Matrix and 4th in the Sagarin. If everyone in the top 4 wins, OU would move up to 3rd in the Colley. Additionally, OU will be playing the 6th ranked team in the Sagarin (OSU), so you can expect OU to make a big jump there (probably to #2). Those two moves alone add 0.03 points to OU’s ranking.
Right, but you've got to account for the highest and lowest being thrown out...
OU would keep Wolfe (3rd), Billingsley (2nd), Sagarin (2nd), and EITHER A&H (probably 4th) or Colley (3rd or 4th). Giving them a score of .93 or .94 at best.
Texas would keep Sagarin (1st), Massey (2nd), Wolfe (2nd), and A&H (where we’d be 2nd if we can pick up .002 on Utah). That would give us a .97, keeping OU from adding more than .03, and maybe only .02
My calc was based on tossing out the high and low and it ain't pretty
Worst case for Texas:
TX: A&H 23, RB 23, Colley 25, KM 24, Sagarin 25, PW 24
Low 23, High 25, score .9600
OU: A&H 22, RB 24, Colley 24, KM 25, Sagarin 24, PW 23
Low 22, High 25, score .9500
This would net OU 0.01666 towards the BCS calculation, and keeps UT’s unchanged.
Best case (assuming everyone wins out):
TX: A&H 24, RB 23, Colley 25, KM 24, Sagarin 25, PW 24
Low 23, High 25, score .9700
OU: A&H 22, RB 24, Colley 24, KM 25, Sagarin 24, PW 23
Low 22, High 25, score .9500
This nets Texas an additional 0.00333 in the BCS, and adds 0.016666 to OU. The net effect would be an addtional 0.01333 to OU vs Texas which would move them ahead of us in the total standings unless we are able to sway some voters our way.
corrected best case scenario
Best case for Texas would have OU moving to 3rd in the Colley. Thus netting OU .01 in the overally BCS standings.
I think you're underestimating how much ground they would have to make up in the Colley poll to make it to 3rd,
but I’m wrong frequently.
colley prediction
based on the top 4 winning this weekend using the estimator tool on their web site
Texas will make it....
OU is going to blow it against OSU, Tech is going to squeak by Baylor, Florida St. is going beat Florida….the horns are going to score 70 on A&M with the week off to rest. Tech is going to lose to Mizzu in the Big 12 championship.
also sunshine pumping
No offense, Dawnpatrol. I would love seeing that happen. Seems to much to ask for though.
by Wescott Eberts (GoBR) on Nov 24, 2008 12:56 PM CST up reply actions
Florida
What if Florida wins big, any chance they take some votes away from OU in the human polls?
Florida
Is it possible a dominating win against FL St. would cause Florida to jump OU in the caoches poll and steal #2 and #1 votes from OU thereby lessening or elimintation the difference between UT and OU in the human polls?
Read somewhere
That Texas was actually ahead of OU on the majority of the AP ballots, but some of the voters that had Texas behind OU had them more than 1 spot behind them, causing the OU’s cumulative score to be higher than ours.
If that is the case in the Coaches and Harris polls as well, we have the possibility of 2 things (possibly both) happening:
-OU loses some of its #1 and #2 place votes ito Florida if they beat FSU handily; and/or
-We have a situation like we did in 2004 where the voters didn’t necessarily move us ahead of Cal, but the ones that had us ranked ridiculously low (worse than #4 in this case) move us up to be slated just behind OU. Making the polls public this time would help this cause.
by Horncasting on Nov 24, 2008 11:59 AM CST up reply actions
Not sure we want Bama to lose, not sure we care about Florida either way
I understand the desire for a little bit of chaos in the SEC, however I’m not sure it would be good for the Horns. First, we know many voters operate on the “what have you done for me lately” mentality. Second, supposing that Bama were to lose the vast majority of voters would be deciding on what to do with their #1 slot. Unfortunately, I think many would use the opportunity to put OU at #1 by virtue of the signature win over Tech. unless Florida were to tumble too, I would fully expect Florida to stay ahead of Texas in the polls. The only positive we can surely count on is that we’d move from #2 to #1 in the Pete Wolfe computer ranking.
A Florida loss alone would benefit Texas more than OU, however. More than likely, Florida is a buffer between OU and Texas in many ballots and not the other way around. Especially, on the 4 ballots that have OU #1 in the coaches’ poll. Should Florida lose to FSU, we could see Texas gain a few more votes in the polls, while OU would still not have enough to overcome Bama.
A big Florida win could do that too because it removes the buffer. If Florida wins big, they could jump OU on some ballots, effectively closing the gap between Texas and OU.
good point..but how badly would Florida have to beat FSU to take away votes
from OU who may beat the 12th or 13th ranked team in the country? I know voters are stupid…
Bama losing to Auburn, by itself, has little effect on the Horns.
Florida and OU and Texas are all going to move up about the same amount, though Texas will move up more than Florida and OU because Texas has no first place votes while the other 2 do. This isn’t going to change the relative rankings of Florida, OU and Texas much at all (though the small extent to which is does change will benefit Texas).
But there’s the added benefit that such a loss combined with a Bama win over Florida mightleave Texas ahead of Bama.
Hell yeah
FSU is a top 20 team in the computers. I certainly give them a better chance of losing than say Texas to A&M (who is, by far, the worst team any of the contenders face this weekend.
They’re the worst, obviously, but not by a huge margin. Auburn is also terrible. Both teams possess similar spoiler potential, but I think the quarterbacking at TAMU gives them a better chance.
by burntorangehorn on Nov 24, 2008 11:38 AM CST up reply actions
Auburn
has been competitive in every loss its had this year, except maybe West Virginia. Texas A&M was handled by a mid-tier Sun Belt team. They had a nice two week stretch a month ago when they seemed to be turning it around and then kind of reverted back to being crappy. They might be one of the 10 worst BCS teams this year
Just a trivia tidbit
Florida is 1-3-1 when playing at FSU a week before playing in the SEC championship game.
Still a Blaine Irby fan
by patienthornsfan on Nov 24, 2008 3:41 PM CST up reply actions
If Tech loses to Baylor and we beat Mizzou (again)...
Is it certain that we’d be ahead of 1-loss OU? I mean, some “coaches” are already giving OU 1st place votes! It’s going to look even worse if they stomp OK State on the road. Why would us adding another loss to Mizzou’s record change the OU human love?
Hopefully, the idea of us winning the Big 12 title, with OU not even getting there would sway some human voters. But to say us winning the Big 12 automatically gets us to Miami seems a little questionable.
I agree that there’s no way Tech passes up a 1-loss Texas. IMO, the only way we get to Miami is if OU loses. The probability of them losing a game increases by playing more games, so we would want them to play OK State AND Mizzou instead of just OK State. Therefore, we would need Tech to beat Baylor to force the 3 way tie.
I believe that OU will pass us up if they beat OK State (especially if it’s a blowout). I also believe under no circumstance would OU/UT or Bama/Florida meet in the title game. The human voters would make sure that the top 2 teams are from different conferences.
by goingforthecorner on Nov 24, 2008 11:40 AM CST reply actions
For the same reason Tech is still alive for the national title, OU wouldn’t pass UT in that situation above. Do you really take an 11-1 non-conference champion OU over a 12-1 Texas when Texas has the head-to-head victory? The extra game gives Texas the edge in the computers and with the voters.
The key, as it has been for a few weeks now, is to find a way to get to that Big XII title game.
IF, and I think it’s a big IF, OU were to blow out OSU and beat say USC in the Fiesta Bowl, they might get a split with the AP poll.
There's no way OU is ahead of UT is UT wins the Big 12.
I know the humans have OU ahead right now. But if Texas goes to the Big 12 championship game and wins it, the humans will not abide ranking a team that did not win the Big 12 ahead of a team that did with the Big 12 AND beat the team that didn’t win the Big 12. You’re over-thinking this. Just as the humans swung for OU, they’ll swing back for us in that situation. That shouldn’t be the case (they should just vote on who’s had the better season), but it’s reality.
Couldn't the same be said for Tech?
If Tech beats Baylor, OU loses, Tech beats Mizzou…..
Same scenario. But i think many (if not most) of us would agree that in this situation, Texas would go to Miami.
Obviously it is less likely that OU would pass us if we won the Big XII than us passing Tech if they did so, but i still think your logic is less than airtight.
It's because Texas and OU are right next to each other in the polls right now.
In this situation, it would be easy for pollsters to move texas one spot up or whatever. But Tech is about 5 spots down from Texas on some pollster’s ballots. It takes a lot more for a pollster to move Tech above USC, 2-loss florida or 1-loss alabama, 2-loss OU that just beat Tech by 44 points, etc. That’s the difference. It’s not fair to Tech, by any means, but that’s the way it is.
This situation
. . is starting to get some play by the way. I’ve seen it mentioned 4 times today by different mainstream guys (Edwards included). They find it difficult to believe that a 12-1 Tech would be ranked behind 11-1 Texas by the pollsters. It doesn’t just have to be Tech moving up, they could simply move Texas down.
I've seen that.
I think everyone’s looking for an angle here, but having looked at the numbers, I honestly think that the story should not be “Tech could pass Texas if this happens” but rather “It’s unfortunate that Tech has virtually no chance to pass Texas if this happens, barring voters completely upending their ballots at the end of the season.”
and I think that's where we disagree
Voters can and have upended their ballots before. Like you, I think the chance is slimmer than it’s made out to be by some others. But I do think it’s a real possibility. Georgia getting passed last year despite being next in line #4 in the BCS surprised me a bit and that’s without the head-to-head issue as well.
OU really gets everything they want out of the OSU game this week—provided they win of course. The best true road win of the 3 teams involved. A big computer jump because it’ll be a road win. A Saturday night game in primetime to solidify the voting should they win big.
Texas needs Tech to lose more than anything else. Getting to the Big XII title game is the key. Too many other things can happen if they don’t. While I don’t completely agree w/Edwards about the Tech 12-1 situation, I think it has more of a chance than the analysis above gives it credit for. If I’m a BCS coach, do I really want to set a precedent of a team with a conference title to its resume, a head-to-head win, and the same amount of losses getting jumped by a team that didn’t win the conference and that it lost to? I wouldn’t.
I think the precedent should’ve been set last year. Georgia, except for the head-to-head part, fit that bill, and as much as I despise UGA, they should’ve been there instead of LSU.
by burntorangehorn on Nov 24, 2008 11:45 AM CST up reply actions
Sorry, that was poor
Why UGA? Same amount of losses, LSU won its division, UGA imploded again Tennessee. They leaped LSU for that very reason.
Georgia was ranked ahead of LSU before that week, and LSU jumped them for no reason at that point. Georgia didn’t win its division because of a tie-breaker, much like UT might not win its division this season, but it was idiotic voters who cooked the polls by under-ranking Georgia.
If LSU leaped for the reason you state, why did the stupid voters wait until the last possible poll to do so?
by burntorangehorn on Nov 24, 2008 12:07 PM CST up reply actions
You're telling me...
…that you think that the #7 team in the BCS can jump the #2 team in the BCS without the #2 team losing? You realize that would also require Tech jumping USC and perhaps a 1-loss Alabama too, right? There is virtually no way.
And Utah.
Just to be safe, as I mentioned in another post, root for USC to win out. They’re no risk to pass us, and their acting as a wedge between us and Tech would help prevent the odd Brad Edwards scenario from materializing.
by Hopkins Horn on Nov 24, 2008 4:48 PM CST up reply actions
The computers would be very close and Tech has a legitimate argument. Hell, it’s the EXACT same argument you laid out for Texas above should they go 12-1 and OU go 11-1.
The voters have shown a history of jumping teams. LSU went from #7 to #2 last year (albeit #1 and #2 both lost). They jumped ahead of UGA, V. Tech (who had just won the ACC title game), and an idle Kansas. I DON"T think it will happen, but I think it’s more likely than you’re giving it credit for.
They have a legit argument certainly, and I said so in the article. It's probably unfair.
But while I think voters might be inclined to put Tech ahead of Texas if the two were right next to each other on the ballots, they’re not right next to each other. Voters would have to leap Tech past USC, 1-loss Bama or 2-loss Florida, the 2-loss OU team that beat Tech by 44 points, etc. I just don’t see it.
And last year, LSU did not lose by 44 points in the 2nd to last game of the regular season. There’s a big difference. That game is going to be stuck in voters’ minds for a few weeks, no matter what Tech does.
Paradigm Shifts
Tech getting blown out was a paradigm shift which gave the voters justification to put OU ahead of Texas. Tech is irrelevant to the national title discussion now.
Bama getting beat would be a paradigm shift as well, because the top team would tumble just as last year which allowed LSU to go from #7 to #2.
I don't like the timing of this weekend's games, for Texas' sake
Maybe I’m just being paranoid, but I think the time at which the games are played this week could hurt us. Assuming all the favorites take care of business, the OU win would be so fresh in voters’ minds when they send in their vote saturday night/sunday morning. We would have played Thursday night, and even though it’s primetime on ESPN, would everyone be watching on account of it being Thanksgiving? In the western time zones, this game starts right when a lot of families are just sitting down to eat (5-6pm). And on the east coast it won’t end til after 11; would voters stay up after having eaten a turkey dinner? After watching OU beat a good OSU on the road, the UT victory over A&M would seem like ages ago.
Again, probably just my paranoia, but it can’t help us that OU gets another saturday night timeslot.
It hurts yes
. . but the worst thing is just how bad TAMU is. They are in the 90’s in Sagarin’s ratings. Oklahoma put a 66 spot on them. I don’t know UT impresses in that game, unless they score in the 80s or something. And if it’s remotely close, it will hurt.
I agree with you
It hurts us that A&M is so bad this year. We’ll need to at least equal OU’s victory margin (39, correct?) and hopefully exceed it by a touchdown. But it’s A&M: their season will be considered a success with a victory. They play this one harder than any other. I know we’re capable of 52-10, but the last two years have taught us it’s going to be tougher than we expected. We need to get over the emotion and just execute. Equaling or exceeding OU’s victory margin while allowing less points should be the goal.
But my concern remains that OU gets the opportunity to impress last. If Texas wins something like 52-10, how many people will remember how impressive it was if OU wins comfortably in Stillwater?
Nobody
Again, I think UT would have to put up an eye-popping score: 70-80 on offense for anyone to remember that game, particularly if OU wins big.
We have the capability
But Mack wouldn’t allow that to happen. If Texas is up more than 35 by the time the 4th quarter starts, he’ll call off the dogs and put in the backups. And a Chiles-led offense isn’t exactly a scoring machine.
Might hurt us, but Mack is to nice to run it up past 60 on Aggy.
So, which is most likely?
OU loses to OSU?
Tech loses to Baylor?
OU loses to Missouri?
OU loses to OSU imo.
But I dont like those chances much.
by BoddickerIsClutch on Nov 24, 2008 12:44 PM CST up reply actions
now we get to see that sparkly defense on the road at night just like we saw tech.
In a true rivalry game.
Also, Thanks for this updated post BZ
Was waiting all morning to let you get into the numbers, saved me from having to do so!
by BoddickerIsClutch on Nov 24, 2008 12:46 PM CST reply actions
That's a hell of an article...
for ESPN to post in favor of the Horns. I like it!
by Misterserious7 on Nov 24, 2008 12:58 PM CST up reply actions
Baylor..
Man..i hope they pull it off! How butthurt would OU be..haha.
The Texas v. Texas A&M Rivalry Has Sucked Lately…
…in light of the TX/OU shootouts that have dominated that past decade. Grant it, TAMU has won the last two, but in truth no one respects them anymore (see the Baylor bottomfeeder handbook handoff from earlier posts – hilarious). But this game is meaningless to the rest of the nation, so any mediocre win by UT will be quickly forgotten by the time other games start on Saturday. This is not good for us in the polls.
We must, MUST!, absolutely crush them. CRUSH. I’m talking negative yardage! Turnovers! Run backs for TD’s! Hell, we’ve got to punch their stupid yell leaders in the face! Throw crap at their anal-retentive band! This is no time to be nice to little brother. There’s a goddam rivalry to revive here. AND we’ve got to show the nation that we mean business about getting respect in the polls. It’s our place to be in the MNC! We belong there. From now on, by God! The plan that DD, Mack, and Co. have begun for the future of this program does not allow for slow ramp ups or lacksadasical feelings of entitltement. Dammit we are entitled! But we cannot be f##king lacksadasical about it!! To hell with Florida. I don’t give a rats ass about how good they look. We’ll destroy them. To hell with Bama. They don’t have a chance against us. To hell with OU and Tech and SC and every other motherfcker out there who thinks they deserve this, goddammit!! Our men need to go out there on Thursday night and absolutely overpower and kill this pathetic excuse of a rival that they claim to be. We need 100 points! 100 Goddammit! And f##king roar out loud while doing it. To hell with the nice guy bulls##t. This MNC is OURS!! So we’re taking it!
You want this to be a real rivalry again?! Then we need to systematically and absolutely crush those motherfckers out there. Go ahead and piss them off for next year. I dare them to rise up again. It’s f##king embarrassing for us to have to play them like this.
Dammit I’m pissed that we’re relegated to discussing this effing option or that effing scenario to get us to the MNC game. Who we need to root for and what this computer will do for us. To hell with that!! Go out there and get a GODDAM 100-0 win! Period! You want results?! Get them yourself! You can’t stand by and let other motherfckers do it for you. Crush these f##king losers!!
I want to see Texas execute like we saw against Missouri, except never take the foot off the pedal.
by burntorangehorn on Nov 24, 2008 1:19 PM CST reply actions
what if?
Is there anyway of doing a computer simulation where we throw out all the head to head games? (no tech-ut, no ou-ut, and no tech ou). I realize OU would freak out because they are hanging their hat on beating the Sh*t out of tech but wouldnt that just solve the true dilemma? OU beat #16 kansas, who texas beat better (arguably). That would be their best win (at the time of the game). UT still has wins over Mizzou and OSU to bank on in this situation in addition to kansas. Tech has only OSU and kansas. I realize the nonconference wouldnt help but id love to see how this would play out
Pretty good analysis
I have to commend on the analysis, it’s some good logical thinking.
My only critique is that I think there will be a much bigger boost in the computer rankings to OU if they go on to beat OSU than the author prognosticates, PARTICULARLY given the fact that that game is on the road.
OSU is almost the non-head-to-head tie-breaker for the three teams. All 3 played them, but TTU and UT played them at home. A win by OU on the road will be at least somewhat more significant, as well as be an additional top 12 opponent, giving them a 5-1 record against top 30 opponents, whereas UT will only be 3-1 against top 30 teams….
I love that you go to "30" in order to squeeze Nebraska in there.
Why don’t we look at their records vs. the top 12, where Texas is 3-1, and OU is 1-1. Sound fair?
Sagarin ratings
Just using the Sagarin ratings…….
But, in your example, OU would be 2-1 after next week, and also 3-1 after they play Missouri…
That assumes OU plays the CCG
Which ain’t a bad assumption right now, but if Texas went on, we’d be 4-1, and OU still only 2-1.
Truly you speak....
I have no doubt that either UT or OU will handily beat Missouri… UT for the second time just like OU did last year….
But my prior point was only that the OSU game is going to really boost OU’s SOS in the computer rankings….
Cincy....
Is ranked 16th in the BCS, AP, and Coaches poll. They lost only one other game other than OU, and they won the Big East…
I added the Sagarin ‘top 30’ because that’s what I happened to be looking at in referencing computer polls and how OU’s SOS would jump. “I” didn’t pick out ‘top 30’ it’s part of what the computer uses to factor in….
And once again, that’s part of my point of how the computer polls are going to work.
To reiterate
Today, they don’t. Because SOS is only calculated based on games played. AFTER next week, it will change when OSU is added to OU’s schedule and their SOS improves, and A&M is added to UT’s and their’s will slightly decline.
You're counting on making up 30 spots in Colley, and Massey says already that y'all will not pass us next week.
29 spots in Colley
20 spots in Sagarin
Massey shows played schedule and full schedule, with Texas ahead in both.
10 spots in Billingsley
16 spots in Anderson & Hester
I can’t find Wolfe’s SOS.
Do you really think that you pass us in strength of schedule in more than 3 computers? Really?
You forget
That not only will OU’s SOS increase, but Texas’ will decline, a double effect. Not a lot, but some.
And no, I don’t claim that in EVERY poll will the SOS flip between the teams, but at worst it will narrow significantly. And that is but one factor in the analysis.
AND, all of this is contingent upon OU winning, as well as UT and TTU….
You've been saying since yesterday that OU had a tougher schedule. I guess now that the computers
are not going to back you up on that….
At any rate, OU will probably pass Texas in the BCS not because of computers or pollsters, but because of a flawed tiebreaker in the Big 12. As long as OU recognizes that if we were in the SEC, ACC, or Big 10, we would be going instead of them.
I’m just tired of hearing OU fans trying to justify their (probable) title game berth. Don’t justify, admit it. You guys got very, very lucky, and we did not.
What I WILL admit
Is what I said a week ago, even before the TTU game
Which I will say again, especially since it is still in doubt
I am going to root for my team to come out ahead of this tie-breaker. I see valid points for both (not all) teams. So, whoever does win it, I’m not going to bitch and moan either way. My second rooting would be for a rematch in Miami, regardless of who goes to KC. But, if that doesn’t happen, I’m going to root for UT (mostly Colt) wherever they end up in January.
If you're going to include the common OSU game
Why not include the common KU game? Tech and us played them on the road and you played them at home, and we both beat them far worse than OU did.
Also, since you’re talking about where all 3 of us played OSU, why not include where all 3 of us played each other: at Tech, at OU, and at a neutral site, which gives the obvious big edge to Texas.
by HookedinOKC on Nov 24, 2008 10:02 PM CST up reply actions
Florida
Florida is doing so terribly in the computers that it’s possible (though not probable) that a 1-loss SEC champion Florida might be ranked behind non-division champ Texas in the BCS.
This has been scaring me for some time, and is the reason I was rooting for Oklahoma on Saturday (we’ll need all the #1 votes we can get to overcome the computers). Still, I’m not sure how much we’d split the vote with Oklahoma. After next weeked if UF is still doing poorly in the computers what you just realized will begin to be publicized, and the voters will start saying things like “a 1-loss SEC champ getting passed over for a 1-loss Big 12 non-champ is unacceptable” and Florida will see a bump in its human vote to try to counteract the computers.
Also, I have to think that FSU and Bama would significantly improve UF’s computer ranking. As long as Bama beats Auburn this weekend (go Bama).
You're probably right. I think it's unlikely to happen.
But it’s extremely interesting to think about and I do believe it is possible.
Timing this week
BZ -
My fear is that Texas dominates the Agros this week on Thursday, but OU dominates OSU on Saturday night. Their win is that much more fresh in the minds of voters, who have had 48 hours to forget what Texas did. Ther mindset is going to be “this was a "Show Me” type week, and OU just showed me what I needed to see." I truly think their thinking is that short sighted. I hope I’m wrong. The Schalbach story is great to see and hopefully this thinking can spread.
Another scenario I'm scared to bring up
Another excellent analysis by billyzane, and I had never thought of the “advancing to Miami ahead of a one-loss UF team” before, but I think there’s definitely some merit. And it would be a damn funny way to get there. Ha ha, SEC!
But I think there’s another highly improbably but nevertheless possible path for Texas to win a championship this year.
A split championship.
Here me out on this.
billyzane’s analysis focuses on the coaches’ and the Harris poll, and excludes the AP, for good reason: the AP doesn’t matter one bit in determining BCS match-ups. But, except in the mind of delusional LSU supporters, #1 in the post-bowl AP bowl has just as much right to place a “National Champions” banner inside their stadium as does the BCS champ.
What’s important right now for this scenario is that we are much closer to catching OU in the AP than we are in the Harris or coaches.
Here’s how this would play out. Let’s suppose that the combination of this week’s results and talking-head chattering convince a slim number — not sure what the exact number would be, but let’s say 1% or so — to increase their ranking of UT relative of OU. If conventional wisdom is in fact true, that slight flipping of votes wouldn’t not be enough to keep OU from being ahead of us in the Harris and coaches, and it wouldn’t be enough to prevent OU from catching us in the BCS.
But it would be enough to pass OU in the AP.
For us to continue holding an advantage over OU if we were to pass them in the AP after this weekend, with OU winning thereafter, probably requires two things:
(1) OU wins its games in not overwhelming fashion, and
(2) the sportswriters who vote in the AP to be as stubborn as I think they are and to enjoy creating controversy as much as I think they do.
I’m not convinced that OU passes us automatically in the AP post-KC, so long as their win is more of a workmanlike manner than a dominant, Tech-like game. Besides, what better way for the AP voters to continue to display their relevancy than creating a chance that they will crown their own champ?
Obviously, once we’d get to the BCS games, Texas would have to dominate its opponent to prevent its voters from jumping to OU, and OU again probably can’t win too dominantly.
Voila, split championship.
I don’t think this works with the SEC team beating OU, since both teams are already ahead of us in the AP and would presumably stay there without a loss.
But hears what would really, totally, absolutely suck about this if this came true: we would be in front of our TVs on January 8, rooting for OU to win the BCS championship while praying that, in so doing, they don’t also knock us out of our superior position in the AP. Talk about nerve-racking…
I don’t consider the LSU fans deluded. The AP poll has always been given more respect than it deserves, and USC did not win a BCS national championship that season. As far as I’m concerned, only the BCS national championship wins.
Winning the AP poll “championship” is like getting an MTV Movie Award instead of an Oscar.
by burntorangehorn on Nov 24, 2008 11:15 PM CST up reply actions
So if this crazy scenario came true...
…and there were a celebration at DKRTMS to honor the 2008 national champion Texas Longhorns, you’d ignore it?
Or if someone subsequently refered to Texas’ five all-time national championships, you’d correct them and say that 2008 didn’t count?
by Hopkins Horn on Nov 25, 2008 6:37 AM CST up reply actions
Imo
When you join the BCS and agree to partake in the BCS system, there is one champion, and its the BCS.
If UT was awarded the AP Natty Champ, it would be nice sure, but I wouldnt count it. The MNC goes through the BCS championship game, until the BCS is over and done, thats how it is.
by BoddickerIsClutch on Nov 25, 2008 8:07 AM CST up reply actions
Is there a bylaw in the BCS...
…that requires schools participating in BCS bowl games to forgo any right to claim a national championship if #1 in the last AP poll?
Didn’t think so.
So long as the “M” remains in “MNC,” the list of schools that would not claim a national championship if it wins the AP, but not the BCS, is approximately 0, give or take 0.
by Hopkins Horn on Nov 25, 2008 10:01 AM CST up reply actions
Schools will take any and all accolades they can get
I was talking about in my opinion, which is what the imo acronym means.
Also part of my opinion, is that there should be a law such as you describe else you have the Pete Carrolls of the word who complain like hell when its about them, but wont speak a peep when it works in their favor. Either be against it, or be for it, circumstance be damned. If you want to compete for the BCS title, and reap the monetary rewards associated with it, then you should have to acquiesce that it decides the only true champion in college football, or else call it trash and refuse to participate in it, imo (see above).
by BoddickerIsClutch on Nov 25, 2008 10:34 AM CST up reply actions
“MNC” is a made-up term, not an official one.
And no, I wouldn’t consider it a national championship if Texas were to only win the final AP poll. I would celebrate a great, unexpected season, and I would also tout the fact that Texas was #1 in the final AP poll, but I would refrain from calling them the national champions.
by burntorangehorn on Nov 26, 2008 11:10 AM CST up reply actions
Not out of the realm of possibility...............
But, I’d give the chances of an OU-UT matchup as more probable. Not necessarily likely, but more probably than your described analysis……
And anyways, I’d like it better that way………….
I agree that a Texas-OU rematch is more probable...
…since my scenario somewhat depends upon AP voters being stubborn and liking controversy. Still, I think the odds are north of 0%, even if not by much.
by Hopkins Horn on Nov 24, 2008 6:30 PM CST up reply actions
If poll voters...
purposely skew their votes to counteract the computers, they should be eliminated from the poll. What is the point of having computer rankings if human voters feel the need to correct them by shifting their votes.
One more reason why the BCS can’t work.
I’d rather have one blind vote by humans and computers at the end of the season without any preliminay voting to prevent trends and factions from forming.
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