PB's Weekend Wrap
by Peter Bean on Nov 25, 2008 3:31 AM CST
in Quick Hits
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I need to free-flow a little bit here, so I'm hitting the bullet points: FOOTBALL
- After two straight days of hyper-analysis, I think most Longhorns fans understand that if nothing changes in the human vote, an Oklahoma win in Stillwater will provide them the computer boost to jump Texas. With that said, my outlook isn't nearly as bleak as it perhaps should be:
- First, I like our argument.
- Second, I'm not seeing it as an argument isolated within our partisan bubble (i.e. a sizable chunk of the most visible MSM commentariat seem to be on board).
- Third, if nothing else that support outside the Burnt Orange Nation serves to alert voters that there exists a reason to consider our arguments before casting their final ballots.
- And finally, the insanity of the process works in our favor this week: Though voters in a totally objective world should perhaps reward Oklahoma more for a close win at Stillwater, if the Sooners squeak by OSU while Texas bombs A&M, the Longhorns may be the ones who make the more favorable final impression. (Rational? Not really, but neither is the "hot team down the stretch" crap that's to this point fueled the Sooners' surge past the Longhorns in the polls.)
- Talking to my Dad tonight, he reminded me of a point I've made to him countless times over the years: Voters frequently treat their final ballots differently than they do their week-to-week submissions. Which is understandable. If you know that all that matters is your final ballot, you're more likely to (1) vote quickly/by-trend as you go and (2) slow down and consider carefully each ranking on your final ballot that will ship teams to title games. Whether it happens or not, there's at least reason to hope some voters will evaluate Texas-vs-Oklahoma differently than they did this past week.
- Relatedly, those voters know their final ballots will be (1) made public and (2) scrutinized like no other week of the year. Whether or not they change their mind, they'll give the issues greater thought than they did this past week. I think that helps Texas, given the RRS.
- After writing all this crap about ties, resumes, blah, blah, blah... How sweet would it be if all the Sooner clowns who've shown up to BON this week had to scuttle back under a cheat-wagon because Tech lost to Baylor?
- One thing I've always wondered: Are outsider fans just doing what outsider fans are supposed to do, or do they really think Mack Brown is a "whiner" for advocating his team's cause? If they're just taking their shots at the opposition--fine. But if, with the highest of stakes in play and given how this BCS nonsense works, a fan wouldn't want their coach and athletics department working the PR angles involved in this system... that I don't understand.
- Assume that Texas doesn't make it to Kansas City/Miami. What would your ideal second choice bowl be? I'm excited to say that my top choice is at this moment perhaps Texas' most likely match up--the Fiesta Bowl against USC. Why? My goals for the team are always (1) Big 12 Title, (2) National Title, (3) Prepare for (1) or (2 ) in the following year. Assuming Miami is out of play for 2008, I can't think of any better preparation for 2009 than a clash with a defense as strong as USC's. Win or lose, that's a great game for the team.
- When thinking about the Will Muschamp successorship decision, keep all this in mind, as well. If Texas earns a trip to KC or Miami, having Muschamp both on board and not a distraction helps Texas achieve the top goals. And even if the 'Horns miss out this year, compare Texas' title chances in 2009 with Muschamp still here against their chances breaking in a fifth defensive coordinator in five years.
- Random thought: Though you'd always rather be the team that controls its own destiny, is it so bad that Texas' path to Miami might hinge on Missouri beating OU or Texas Tech, rather than Texas having to beat Missouri again?
- Want to know why I don't much care about the Heisman? Read this, from the blogger who follows the award more closely than anyone... It's a game, not an honest evaluation.
HOOPS
- Longhorns fans need to take the long view on Dogus. Watching him Monday afternoon, I see a guy who can and will provide a lot of value for this team by February. In particular, I see two issues here: First, Mason and Abrams have their widely-discussed limitations running the point for the 'Horns, But second, I think this team will for some time be in search for an identity--and certainly in the half court offense, I suspect the identity that emerges is gonna be one that utilizes a lot of inside-out from our formidable frontcourt. Tying that back to Dogus, it's a sad fact of the game today that the basics of passing (and in particular the entry pass to the post) are a dead skill among guards today. Not so with Mr. Balbay. It'll take some time, but he'll be a critical contributor by the end of conference play--if only as a facilitator of our frontcourt advantages.
- Wiggy is right: This team is deep. Though that feels a bit "new," in truth, that's historically been Rick Barnes' calling card in non-superstar driven years. And while in the depth department this tea does remind me a bit of 2003-04, there's significantly more skill and frontcourt talent than there was on that squad. I'll note again that I think this team may take a while to gel and find its identity, but the pieces are there for Rick to do what he likes to do with depth, while having a nucleus of skill talent and frontcourt presence to be more than good-not-great.
- AJ Abrams very clearly took seriously the weight training this year. He's actually shooting a jump shot this year, and he's playing with a noticeably stronger upper body. Though I still don't love him as a point, that body strength will serve him well in his role this year--in slashing the lane, finishing near the rim, and handling the rock amongst physically elite perimeter defenders.
- Watch Wingman carefully this year. We saw last season that he's got great hands/natural basketball skills. The developmental/consistency leap he needs to take to become a poor man's Emeka Okafor looks attainable. If he can make the leap this year instead of next, Texas has a terrifying frontcourt.
- Mason at point guard won't work. He's so great at so many different things, but so many of them come from his instincts and abilities playing without the ball in his hands.
- Along with Wingman, another big unknown for me right now: What to make of Gary Johnson. If he's a scrappy, strong-but-undersized contributor in the paint, he's useful. If he can be a poor man's Corliss Williamson/Darvin Ham? Texas is lethal.
- Rick's use of Connor (full court press) and Pittman (underneath the rim) to make life hard for the inbounds passer is really smart.
- Wiggins was spot-on with his criticism of Damion James' shot selection Monday. To take the point outwards to its big picture conclusion, one of James' most important roles for this team lies with his (1) versatility as a scorer and (2) ability to create a quality look against any defender. However, it looks to me like if/when this team hits its offensive stride, those skills will be most valuable where either (1) the game circumstance necessitate us having someone like James who can create a solid look, or (2) in all other cases, where James' versatility is a lethal spoke in a larger wheel, as opposed to a go-to focal/creation point like was the case with Durant and Augustin.
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Final ballot
The voters may change their minds on the final ballot, but what about the second to last ballot? That’s the one that decides who goes to the Big XII C in the event of a tie-breaker. Are this ballots tabulated this weekend made public too?
Be nobody but yourself in a world that desperately wants you to be like everybody else.
by 54b on Nov 25, 2008 5:44 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
No they are not made public
You make a very good point. We just have to hope that all or at least most of the voters will still realize the importance of this ballot and do a final ballot-type analysis of the teams and seasons.
Also, keep in mind that we actually were ahead of OU on most of the AP ballots, meaning that the ones that had us behind OU had us more than one spot behind them. If this is the case in the coaches and Harris polls as well, then having those voters move us up, even if not in front of OU, could be huge. As PB stated, it’s what happened in 2004.
by Horncasting on Nov 25, 2008 9:48 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
GSD&M
Silly idea of the day that might work.
GSD&M (Austin’s highly regarded advertising agency) has to be crawling with Texas fans. Surely someone over there could easily produce an attack ad — done in a tongue-in-cheek style, of course, but one that gets the point across nonetheless — make the case for US but against OU.
Release it on YouTube and make sure it’s forwarded to all the right people (ESPN).
Couldn’t hurt…
by Hopkins Horn on Nov 25, 2008 6:42 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
What about keeping it in house?
Great idea k-jm. We need a guerilla PR blitz the likes of which even the Obama machine would envy (that is a compliment BTW).
Why outsource when we have a bazillion Advertising and Graphic Art / Creative students who should be able to rise up and deliver.
Students, whatdaya say?
by TXStampede on Nov 25, 2008 6:49 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
And in my ideal fantasy world...
…the ad would be so funny and so well-produced that some rich alum (not it!) would pony up the funds to run it in the last commercial break before kickoff in the OU-OSU game.
by Hopkins Horn on Nov 25, 2008 7:08 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Less than impressive outing in Hawaii
We missed too many second chance shots. Other shots were rushed. We had St. Joe’s down and nearly out early. Instead of knocking them out, we let them back into the game.
Abrams is not the answer at point guard. He really should be a two or three guard. If Mason is the better shooting guard then Abrams should come off the bench in a three guard line up.
I want to see more of Alexis Wangmene. He looked like a strong rebounder. How good is he on the offensive end? Can he hit 90% of his shots inside four feet? If so, then he must start.
I like this team but I am not still sold on Barnes as an in-game coach. Why were we not running high-low with Wangmene low and Atchley high (or reverse it) and Abrams on the wing?
By February 1, we will have a better idea of what this team is and is not.
by milevin on Nov 25, 2008 7:19 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
i'm sorry
If Mason is the better shooting guard then Abrams should come off the bench in a three guard line up.
Anything said after this is null & void.
Perhaps the most recognizable mascot in sports, and certainly the toughest looking, Bevo is a fixture
by run Bevo run on Nov 25, 2008 8:19 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Not the final ballot
Relatedly, those voters know their final ballots will be (1) made public and (2) scrutinized like no other week of the year. Whether or not they change their mind, they’ll give the issues greater thought than they did this past week. I think that helps Texas, given the RRS.
Unfortunately, although this is arguably the more important ballot, it is not the final ballot, and any coaches who want to jack the system can do so, I believe, with immunity.
by Hopkins Horn on Nov 25, 2008 7:35 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
Yep.
They really need to make this one public.
The Ralphie Report - University of Colorado Athletics
by Jon Woods on Nov 25, 2008 9:18 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I wonder if a coach can be sanctioned for a highly suspicious ballot
There has to be some oversight, right? Mack couldn’t put Texas at #1 and OU at #25 and not lose his vote, right?
by the1austin on Nov 25, 2008 2:02 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
No idea
But another twist on this:
What if you’re Nick Saban or Urban Meyer (not sure if they have votes or not, but assume they do), and you’re absolutely convinced you’d match up a lot better against Texas than OU. Wouldn’t there be at least the slightest temptation to vote Texas #2 and “forget” to rank OU?
by Hopkins Horn on Nov 25, 2008 2:11 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Re:
A note to Tech fans: I’m certain my cavalier dismissal of your team from this conversation has to rub the wrong way. I don’t blame you. I’ll only say (1) See above, and (2) The stakes are just too damn high. Practically and factually speaking, you’re out of this race. All I can say is that unlike with Oklahoma… with you guys it ain’t personal.
I appreciate this Peter. With that said, the stakes are no less high for Texas Tech. I don’t agree with you that we are out of this race either practically or factually. Practically speaking, OU could lose to OSU, and we could beat Baylor and Missouri.
by Skin Patrol on Nov 25, 2008 7:45 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
Thoughts
Assume that Texas doesn’t make it to Kansas City/Miami. What would your ideal second choice bowl be?
My order of preference would be:
1. One of the SEC schools
2. Penn State (over USC just to play someone different)
3. USC
4. Utah
When thinking about the Will Muschamp successorship decision, keep all this in mind, as well. If Texas earns a trip to KC or Miami, having Muschamp both on board and not a distraction helps Texas achieve the top goals.
I’m not on board with the whole head coach successor thing, but in the short term I think it is worth the extra money investment to keep out the distractions this year. The flip side of this is that OU and Tech ARE having to deal with these distractions right now and this could affect their games this week.
by Horncasting on Nov 25, 2008 10:10 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
James
James is playing the way NBA scouts are telling him to. He’s got one thing on his mind and that is how he can make it at the next level….
by Dawnpatrol on Nov 25, 2008 10:35 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
I think going to a 3 position will take some adjustment
especially in terms of offense with spacing and shot selection.
With the youth of all these players, they often fall back into their prior habits and experience. Damion is creating his own sense of position but he is far from being the nuanced, experienced player in his new role at this point.
Yes, this does key into his NBA future, but I doubt if NBA scouts overrule what Rick is telling him.
by whills on Nov 25, 2008 11:53 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Super analysis
of the hoops team at the opening tipoff. This from a non-basketball guy; you make valid points and educate “limited knowledge” fans like myself.
by edsp on Nov 25, 2008 10:48 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
for what it's worth.....
there are folks in the national press who see the BCS face off that favors Texas.
http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/notebook?page=notebook/onthemark1124
by Xerxes on Nov 25, 2008 11:05 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
A few quick comments
Bitter — how are all you guys who rooted for Oklahoma going to feel if it turned out it was all for nothing? Huh?
Whiner — maybe it’s Mack’s vocal quality. He can’t help sounding like he’s whining.
Wingman — forget Okafor. Olajuwon is the model.
Before you criticize someone, walk a mile in their shoes. If they get mad, you're a mile away AND you have their shoes.
by Caradoc on Nov 25, 2008 11:50 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
About 20% of us didn't root for OU for whatever reason, doc.
I think everyone was finding a comfortable angle to get the desired result. No blame there. Hell, I like OSU at home even if it is relatively against our own interest.
While Mack’s voice might be a little tinny, he still gets beau coups of respect in the coaching community because the Horns aren’t playing a whiny game; they kicking ass and have been for a decade. Are we now doing vocal assessments of Stoops, Mack and Leach?
Wingman can fly in his own way.
by whills on Nov 25, 2008 11:59 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
No blame
Oh, I can understand why someone might be driven to root for our most hated rival, and must admit that I found myself happy with the eventual result. No, I don’t blame anyone — but I can’t help pointing out the irony.
I’m not judging Mack because of his vocal quality — hell, I like hearing Bob Dylan sing — but if you are looking to put him down, that’s something to grab onto,and people do. Mark Mangino’s weight shouldn’t matter either, but how often do his detractors bring it up?
At least we agree that Wingman could be something really, really special.
Before you criticize someone, walk a mile in their shoes. If they get mad, you're a mile away AND you have their shoes.
by Caradoc on Nov 26, 2008 1:01 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
If OU had lost, Texas would now have no shot a the Big 12 Championship
We all knew the risk, but we love our Horns more than we hate OU.
by Horncasting on Nov 25, 2008 12:20 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
mainstream media
I keep reading different mainstream analysts backing UT, is there any mainstream media pushing for OU? I just wonder where they get their support in the Harris poll from.
by utfan1976 on Nov 25, 2008 3:28 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
How many people do you think have 45-35 signs at the game thursday night?
That would help tons. (Took this from the statesman article)
by jacobb23 on Nov 25, 2008 4:04 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
maybe the worst thing...
about all this BCS crapola is what incentives it’s going to create.
Mack consistently takes his foot off the pedal either late in the 3rd or early in the 4th. Stoops/Urban? Not so much…
So if running up the score shamelessly is rewarded, what’s going to happen next year and beyond? We will DEMAND that Mack/Muschamp score in triple figures against weak teams. Second-stringers will be there merely for injury insurance. Sportsmanship, if it isn’t already, will be a completely passe notion.
Let’s face it, the whole OU argument comes down to “we’re hotter because we’re lighting up the scoreboard!” There really is no other reason to vote for them. They’ll throw out the non-conference sked, but truly – even the people who resort to that one – do they think that Cincinnatti or TCU would have beaten Texas??? I really want one of them to answer that the next time they throw it up against the wall. They might argue that thinking of Texas versus those teams is immaterial, because it’s completely speculative, but then, that’s their only hope in the first place, isn’t it? If you take speculation and subjectivity out of the equation, and concentrate on what happened “on the field”, they’re left explaining why everyone should disregard the outcome when they met up with us on a neutral field…
by Pflash on Nov 26, 2008 11:20 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
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