Alabama - Auburn?

by boonies on Nov 25, 2008 10:42 PM CST

What is the likelihood that Auburn could upset Alabama? Can anyone link me to some good analysis on this matchup? If Auburn were to beat Alabama, what might that do to the overall BCS picture?

Alabama has already clinched a spot in the SEC championship, correct? That means they'd still play Florida (assuming no upset to an in-state rival, which I think is unlikely given how reliable Urban Meyer has been against Bowden since taking over the Gators).

This could be a real mess if Alabama loses to Auburn, and then Florida loses to Alabama in the SEC championship--I wonder if that would result in two Big 12 teams playing in the BCS championship.

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Nah,

Alabama would be a one-loss SEC champion that just beat the OMG BEST TEAM EVER THAT JUST CRUSHED CITADEL BY 70! They’d go.

by Horn Brain on Nov 25, 2008 11:35 PM CST reply actions

Really?

Your’re the expert in this area, so I’m not going even attempt to debate you on this matter, but I figured Alabama would take such a huge hit in polls that it would nearly be impossible for them to recover, almost like the situation with Tech. I have a hard time believing that a 1 loss Alabama would have a computer advantage over the two Big 12 teams. I know they would get a lot of love in the human vote, but I don’t think they would be higher than #2, which does not seem like enough to overcome any deficit in the computers. Thoughts?

by Hookem4life84 on Nov 26, 2008 12:30 AM CST up reply actions

auburn sucks balls

I agree. Bama would slip to at least 6th or 7th with a loss, provided the big 12 trio held serve. and usc and utah didnt lose their next games.

auburn win would be VERY huge. as would FLA state win over FLA. Either of those teams lose then win SEC title game, it could extend the hysterical debate to even more schools

by Michael Bean on Nov 26, 2008 6:05 AM CST up reply actions

Bama would take a hit initially.

They would fall below Florida, Texas, OU, and probably USC. The thing is, they get to play what many voters consider to be the best 1-loss team in the country the very next week. If they then beat Florida, voters will likely jump them back up to #2, ahead of whichever Big 12 South team doesn’t make the conference championship game.

They’ll take a hit in the computers either way, especially since the computers don’t like Florida that much. But I think the humans might be enough to get Bama back in. It’ll be close.

However, Auburn beating Alabama is still good for Texas. A) there’s still a chance that Texas would be ranked ahead of Bama in the BCS if Bama then beat Florida, and B) Texas will gain a few points in the human polls relative to OU because a couple of voters have OU ranked ahead of Alabama. It’s not a great boon to Texas, but I can’t think of a way that Bama losing will hurt Texas.

by billyzane on Nov 26, 2008 11:04 AM CST up reply actions

i think that the media

and all the talking heads have allready made up thier mind about a SEC vs BIG 12 NCG. but a loss could open the door for, dare i say, USC! i want to see both upsets and see some major shit going down in the BCS. In general i think that a 2 loss florida team wouldnt make the NCG even if they beat Bama in the title game, but if bama wins the SEC they would be a 1-loss team just like everyone in the discussion.

by kcc28 on Nov 26, 2008 8:59 AM CST reply actions

Bama Loss Good, FL Loss Better

We stand to gain slightly more than OU from a Bama loss…. I don’t think that any of the voters could reasonably put Bama over UT but under OU.

A Florida loss would be great though… We’d probably pick up enough votes to close most of the gap in the two polls that matter…. Enough of a switch that if we were crush Aggy about 70-3 on thursday and FL lost on saturday, then I would include “narrow, sloppy OU win” with my list of desired outcomes along with “OU loses.”

by Tackchevy on Nov 26, 2008 12:48 PM CST reply actions

A War Eagle/Tiger/Plainsmen win

Would be good. Very good. So would a Florida State win. But a Baylor win over Tech would be even better…That’s about the stature of upset you’re hoping for here. Auburn can’t score, and Bama doesn’t let anybody score – at least not bad offenses like Auburn.

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by beast in bama on Nov 26, 2008 6:20 PM CST reply actions

It would be UT and OU in NC. They would win in the computer polls because. Bama and FLorida would have two losses, and because of the computers UT and OU would go over all the other one loss/undefeated teams in a bad conference. At least thats what a BCS Guru said on ESPN

by CowboyLonghorn on Nov 28, 2008 1:43 PM CST reply actions