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Around SBN: Spencer Hall's College Football Week 12 Alphabetical

Dr. Saturday at it again

I like reading Matt Hinton's blog and recently he had a Texas - OU mailbag.  I don't really have any problem with the majority of his arguments but I disagree with this point he made:

"Home field advantage" is among the most ephemeral and overrated concepts known to man and location is the last possible factor to consider, when all the real information -- excluding hot streaks, neutral fields and other bits of amateur psychology -- covering the entire season has been exhausted."

Now we all know Texas Tech is a much different team on the road and a neutral field.  And we can agree that OU is pretty much unbeatable at home when they have a good team.  Texas has a pretty good home field advantage too.  I think when you have 2 quality teams playing each other, home field is one of the biggest factors in the game. 

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Home Field is important, but not quite supreme

Ole Miss beat both FL and LSU in away games – mostly because the home teams took them lightly. Okay, maybe not LSU, because they just barely beat Troy. But complacency at home is a real killer – both in the team and fans. Look at the Ags in Austin in 2006, when the whole city seemed to be snoozing, until the final gun.

When the home crowd is up, and the team is up, home field is truly huge. But the stadium itself does not play nor cheer. OU at home is a monster! After all, what else is there to do in Oklahoma on a Saturday than cheer on your Texas mercenaries? Austin can sometimes be awfully laid back …

by Pops'72 on Nov 26, 2008 10:34 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

Only part of your argument I disagree with...

Ole Miss beat LSU because they are a better team than LSU. LSU was ranked because of last year, and has been blown out by the one great team they played (Florida), an ok team (Georgia), and has as their only accomplishment the fact that they hung with a soon-to-be-exposed Alabama team. And, OleMiss always plays LSU tough at LSU.

by ctex80 on Nov 26, 2008 11:14 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I love SMQ (Dr. Saturday) but...

His statements about home field advantage and when a team plays another team (whether fresh or at the end of a brutal four game stretch) seemed naive, poorly thought out, and flat out wrong. I was really surprised to read these remarks from someone normally so insightful.

I know he has no actual rooting interest in this situation but his commentary calling for voters to consider all the factors of this three way tie seems to be moving past objective territory and into pulling for Oklahoma, or at the very least rooting against Texas. I don’t get it.

I have yet to see him address, and subsequently shoot down, an Oklahoma or Tech fan’s reasons why they should win the three way tie. I will be glad when this is all done so I can go back to reading, and not being angered by, one of the best blogs on the web.

"When you hear that voice, it brings a kind of class to the game." ...Frank Okam

by briordan79 on Nov 26, 2008 10:59 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

C'mon now

Let’s not lose our minds here.

Hinton’s as objective as ever.

--PB--

by Peter Bean on Nov 26, 2008 1:34 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Hinton's as objective as ever this week...we'll see how he feels next week.

From his post:

In other sure-to-please news, Texas does indeed remain ahead of Oklahoma for reasons that have nothing to do with having beaten Oklahoma (though that doesn’t hurt): The Longhorns have faced a slightly tougher schedule — their opponents have the highest collective winning percentage of any schedule in the nation — and their three/four best wins are the tiniest sliver of a hair better than Oklahoma’s. This time next week, though, if the Sooners beat Oklahoma State, expect the corresponding boost in strength of schedule and quality wins to push OU in front.”

As for loosing my mind, I’m not the one that said home field advantage “is among the most ephemeral and overrated concepts known to man and location is the last possible factor to consider...”

"When you hear that voice, it brings a kind of class to the game." ...Frank Okam

by briordan79 on Nov 26, 2008 1:48 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

There's a difference

Between arguing against what Hinton is arguing, and saying he’s doing so to pull for Oklahoma.

That’s all I’m concerned about.

--PB--

by Peter Bean on Nov 26, 2008 2:02 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I agree with that...

I really do. To be clear I think Hinton is great, and his site is a daily must read. And I don’t think he is outwardly pulling for Oklahoma. I just felt his continuous argument against Texas winning the three way tie based on their head to head victory over Oklahoma was beginning to push him in a direction that appeared to be biased, even if he was writing with the purest of intentions. Especially if to prove his point he was going to make statements, i.e. the home field advantage remark, that most any college football fan would characterize as just plain wrong.

"When you hear that voice, it brings a kind of class to the game." ...Frank Okam

by briordan79 on Nov 26, 2008 3:36 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Hinton takes objectivity too far...

I think he’s saying “well, there’s no way to objectively look at the schedule and say ‘This team played a tougher schedule than this team,’ so I’m just going to add up wins and losses and let that decide in aggregate.” Ignoring home field advantage and the seasonal context of the game is akin to saying Texas’ offense was mediocre against Kansas because you don’t think weather is a factor and they usually score more points. That’s just ignoring something because it’s hard to quantify, not because it’s insignificant.

If two teams have reasonably close resumes, and one beat the other, then the winner goes ahead. THAT’S objective. Looking at his chart, Tech hasn’t done nearly enough to warrant inclusion in the discussion with OU and Texas, but he keeps arguing that it does for some ridiculous reason. I guarantee you can dig up as many references as you want where Matt says something about how the transitive property doesn’t work in football, and yet somehow OU>Tech>Texas has equal meaning to him as Texas>OU. Inconsistency is not something I’ve come to expect from this guy. Befuddling. Oh, hell I’ll write a post about it.

by Horn Brain on Nov 26, 2008 7:25 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

You're, right, he is objective

But his dismissal of homefield advantage and other things was a bit surprising. He needs to only look at Tech’s record away in big games. How many times as Leach beaten Texas and OU on the road? that’s what I thought.

by TheElusiveShadow on Nov 26, 2008 4:05 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I wrote a long post

Refuting a lot of his points. I was the first to comment, and I can no longer find my response. I hope it was just lost in the Internet. I would hope Dr. Saturday is not in the business of deleting posts that he doesn’t like. I actually like a lot of his stuff.

by TheElusiveShadow on Nov 26, 2008 11:58 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

what the....????

Home field advantage not that big a deal???

Has he compared home/road records for Tech over the last few years? OU has lost what, two games at home in the Stoops era? Their road record, including bowls, of course, is still very good, but he’s lost a whale of a lot more than twice…

Or was he watching ANY of the games this year? I’m flabbergasted that anyone with a modicum of intelligence who’s been watching college football and paying attention thinks that a home crowd, and especially a night home crowd, doesn’t make a difference – a substantial difference.

Not excusing the loss to Tech – they won, fair and square (if you don’t count WWF-style blocking as unfair… but no bitterness here….). But does ANYONE truly think the game, especially the first half, would have played out exactly like that in Austin? Or even on a neutral field, for that matter? I’m not saying road losses shouldn’t count, I’m just saying when you’ve got a situation like we have here you need to look at all the factors in the significant games, and home field, with an amped up (and juiced up!!) crowd is a notable factor in how the game played out. You don’t discount the results, but you certainly take all these extraneous details into account.

Same with the schedule – just find me a coach who will gladly accept a four-game stretch like UT played, and not have that taken into account. We don’t really know whether Tech OR oklahoma would survive a four-game stretch versus top-10 teams, because they’ve NEVER done it… We came within a second of it…

by Pflash on Nov 26, 2008 12:01 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

oh, and by the way...

All this is NOT to complain about the Tech crowd that night. I don’t know what the atmosphere was like live and in person, but on TV it was phenomenal. It reminded me of the Penn St. vs. tOSU game back in ‘05. It was what sets college football apart from the NFL… and kudos to all the Tech fans. They benefited their team, and rightfully so. I guarantee you the Tech players will probably still be talking about that game when they’re all old men.

by Pflash on Nov 26, 2008 12:05 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Totally agree

that in college football, home field is a big difference. The problem is trying to quantify that. Almost every team has a better home record than road record, so how do you account for it? Nobody knows what would have happened if Tech played in Austin…because they didn’t. It’s the Fred Flinstone thing, “Yeah, but, yeah, but…yabba dabba doo.” If there was a logical way to make a loss less dmaging if it happens on the road, I’ve never heard it. I personally think that if we’re going to be forced to be fans of college football in this absurd BCS era, then they need to evaluate EVERYTHING…margin of victory, strength of schedule, where games are played, injuries, time of day, weather, you name it. They have computers…use ‘em to their full capability. Shoot, it couldn’t possibly be more convoluted and bizzare than it already is. And take the freaking mystery out of coaches votes in their poll. Hold those people accountable.

There are SOOO many nebulous variables when we have three really good teams looking for the same prize – and they all have one loss to one or the other. Whatever happens, SOMEONE will get hosed who deserves a shot just as much as the other.

by Tech92 on Nov 26, 2008 3:15 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

What you're really bemoaning is that we don't have an accurate three-dimensional model.

Or multi-dimensional. We have all these stats, point considerations, correlations, but still the situation calls for something at least three dimensional and four if we want forward (or backward, just for you completists) over time.

Well, you say, fuckhead, that’s just too many damn variable. Stuff this turkey, Fred. Tag those variables with a general constant so these little bastards won’t be jumping all over the place and going negative on you. You can control a lot that way. At least in theory.

I see the football season as a pulsating form in multi-dimensional space, an organism growing, adding rings like a tree with varying years of wetness.That’s the three-dimensional form, the fourth is movement over time, the propulsion of the rankings. Cumulative victories, especially successive victories over stout teams, should have an exponential component. Godzilla grew when he got zapped. Create something that fits this. Be Famous. I just see this stuff in space.

by whills on Nov 26, 2008 7:26 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Are you my granddad?

He says this same nonsensical stuff that you somehow like to read/hear anyway. Either you’re both senial or you’re both hilarious.

Or you’re both sauced. I’ll go with that one, knowing my grandpa.

by Horn Brain on Nov 26, 2008 7:33 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

As far as I know, I'm not your granddad.

Glad you got one. Better use him while you can. One of my grandfathers was born in 1880 in Tennessee. The other was born in 1856 in Texas. Long generations.

What I’m saying is that there is no model that works for comparative purposes in this situation, the BCS comparisons or just direct comparison of teams and their seasons with the fabricated polls, all narrowing to one point. If you built a three- (or multi-) dimensional) model you could start approximating the look of a season in depth (hell, you could use color to distinguish winning and losing). I can’t get over the polar coordinate hump, but I can see it (sorta Moses like). I am visual; I see. Reflections and schematics.

So, there a ball – or the earth, even better – with growth dynamics and a gravity relative to its mass. It’s models on models on models. When Texas beat OU (which does suck in my model, in all universal times) and then MIzzou and OSU, the base form not just grew but increased its mass and its relative gravity. #1 with some dust particles. And it has a forward momentum at the least, if not forward motion.

Me and your granddad are trying to get you into free space. You keep fucking crashing.

by whills on Nov 26, 2008 7:51 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

If the UT loss to Tech should be diminished because it was so close and in Lubbock, then does that make the even closer-score win over OkSt not mean anything? With the way it played out, would that have been a Cowboy win in Stillwater or neutral field? I haven’t heard near the complaining from OSU fans about that loss as UT fans about the Tech loss. OSU seems to have had a “hard fought loss against a great team” while UT had a “fluke road loss to a decent Tech team with definite home-field advantage.”

If OU goes into Stillwater and obliterates OSU on their home field, what kind of extraneous details will be extrapolated from that?

I’m not saying that will happen, but when the rankings are so close and you choose to use details from within games, you should use all the details, not just the ones that benefit your own team.

3 teams in the same division of the same conference are all tied with the exact same record and all have round robin wins/losses over each other. One possible suitable piece of detailed information to use is performance against common opponents.
Head to heads:
*OU pounded Tech at home; Tech beat UT by 6 points at home; UT beat OU by 10 on “neutral” field with both teams still having about 50,000 fans each

Common of all three:
*UT beat OkSt by 4 at home; Tech beat OkSt by 36 at home; OSU/OU Saturday
*OU beat KU by 14 at home; UT beat KU by 28 on road; Tech beat KU by 43 on road
*OU beat AtM by 38 on road; Tech beat Atm by 18 on road; UT/Atm Saturday
*OU beat Baylor by 32 on road; Ut beat Baylor by 24 at home; Tech/Bay Saturday

Common to 2 of 3:
*OU beat Neb. by 38 at home; Tech beat Neb by 6 at home

  • Ou beat KSt. by 23 on road; Tech beat KSU by 30 on road

Make what you will of this information. Use some of it or none of it. There are plenty of other stats and info to use to help/diminish any team, it’s just in how it is presented and used. All I know is that 3 teams are tied in the same (best in college football) division of the same conference and it’s ridiculous that we determine the winner based on a popularity contest. I don’t have any answers right now for a solution, but it is clear that it is not right.

by pcrawttu on Nov 26, 2008 4:28 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

ok, let's compare them...

If the UT loss to Tech should be diminished because it was so close and in Lubbock, then does that make the even closer-score win over OkSt not mean anything? With the way it played out, would that have been a Cowboy win in Stillwater or neutral field?

So you got from “diminished” all the way to “not mean anything” all by yourself??? But just to play along, yeah, it does not mean as much as a close win in Stillwater would have. Undeniably it helped us out to have that game in Austin. And if the Cowboys had pulled it out, they would have deserved far more credit for it.

On the other hand, it came directly and without any bye week respite after OU and Mizzou in previous weeks. That, although it never seems to be addressed much (except by whills just above…), is a huge thing. You see that affect pro teams in a tough schedule stretch, it seems clear those games become cumulatively harder. And that should be taken into account. Of course, adding that fourth one, on the road, in a night game with a drunken frenzied crowd, well, that really gets tough. Fighting our way back from that nightmarish first half is one of the most impressive things this young squad has done this year. And, despite some teams rolling up huge scores late in already-decided games, it’s probably one of the most impressive things anyone has done in college football this year.

I haven’t heard near the complaining from OSU fans about that loss as UT fans about the Tech loss. OSU seems to have had a "hard fought loss against a great team" while UT had a "fluke road loss to a decent Tech team with definite home-field advantage."

Let me do a little thought experiment with you - if OSU had played that game without Pettigrew and also without Perrish Cox, and then lost Bryant in their first series, and then say Ulatoski did a WWF-style suplex on Ugo Chinasa and knocked him out for the second half. If despite all that they managed to take it down to the last second, then maybe you’d hear it pitched a little differently. In fact, if that loss was the only thing separating them from a sure spot in a national title game, you’d probably hear it pitched a little differently. If they’d followed up that loss by winning out, then I think you’d hear it pitched a little differently. Since all those apply, I’m actually shocked that you’re not making our case for us… or perhaps that’s what you’re trying to do with all the score-comparing – pointing out the paucity of the case for OU by demonstrating that they run the scores up late into the fourth, while Mack contents himself with just winning, since his team has already shown its superiority on the actual field of play…

by Pflash on Nov 26, 2008 9:13 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Huh?

If home field is not important, somebody better tell the folks in Las Vegas who routinely award the home team a three point advantage in the spread.

Before you criticize someone, walk a mile in their shoes. If they get mad, you're a mile away AND you have their shoes.

by Caradoc on Nov 26, 2008 1:04 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

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