BCS GURU ARTICLE

by TexasEx01 on Nov 27, 2008 12:47 PM CST Comment 13 comments

There is an interesting article written by the BCS Guru. This article revolves around the fact that Mack Brown's coaches poll vote is critical, and can even be the determining factor in the BCS race.

"Coach Mack Brown, how are you gonna vote?

That's the 17 million dollar question that Texas coach Mack Brown might have to answer to. Brown just may end up casting the deciding vote on who gets to play in the Big 12 title game - and by extension, the BCS national championship game.

How? As this has been rehashed many times now: Brown has a vote in the coaches poll whereas Oklahoma coach Bob Stoops does not. The coaches do not have to reveal their ballots next week, but that's when the tiebreaker for the Big 12 South will be decided, via the BCS standings. (We're assuming that Texas, Texas Tech and Oklahoma are going to win as favorites, please stop flooding the Guru about all the other probabilities - I'm WELL AWARE of them.)

If Brown drops Oklahoma from where he had them last week (presumably in the top 5, but he's not telling) to 10th, 20th or even entirely off the ballot ("Oops, did I forget to put OU on the ballot? That must've been an oversight, darn!"), it will have a profound - if not deciding - impact on the BCS title picture."

This makes for an intriguing read.

http://www.bcsguru.com/

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Mack would never do that.

I don’t see Mack ever trying to “game” the system like that. He seems like he would take his voting responsibility seriously.

by pleaseplaykindle on Nov 27, 2008 1:34 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Why don't we just get the Coaches poll out of this?

Obvious problems with conflicts of interest. I also had an idea that if you’re a coach in the Big 12 for example, you would have to automatically leave out your team and all teams in your conference from the top 25 entirely. This would reduce the bias. So basically Meyer and Saban would be forced to put UT/OU at 1 or 2, while Brown and Stoops would have to put Florida/Bama at 1 or 2.

I think the weights in the BCS should be different. Perhaps it should be more like Harris and Coaches are 25% each, while computers are 50% (they should add many more computers though).

by goingforthecorner on Nov 27, 2008 2:09 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Really

The coaches are all too clubby. Everyone feels obligated to support guys he coached, coached for, or coached with. Everyone feels obliged to support his conference. Everyone knows a lot about the teams he plays, but less about others. (And sportswriters are mostly jerks.) The best way to pick teams is an impartial selection committee.

Before you criticize someone, walk a mile in their shoes. If they get mad, you're a mile away AND you have their shoes.

by Caradoc on Nov 28, 2008 12:16 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Here's a different idea

Eliminate the Coaches’ and Harris polls completely. Instead of adding more computers, reduce the whole thing to one computer program. After all, you could write one program that would duplicate the net results of all the others. Make the one computer completely transparent. Everyone should be able to figure out what counts, and for how much. By the way, margin of victory needs to be included, but capped to prevent any benefit from running up the score.

by Longhorn in Canada on Nov 27, 2008 2:58 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

the problem is that you can’t create a true “best 25 teams” model. look at all the computers now and people’s gripes with certain rankings.

by Displaced Longhorn on Nov 27, 2008 4:45 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Yes, but

if you allow a certain amount of credit for margin of victory, I think that improves the computer ratings quite a bit. Look at the 2 Sagarin ratings. The one where he considers MOV is usually much closer to what an unbiased observer would pick.
The coaches don’t have the time or inclination to make a well-considered vote, not to mention their obvious self-interest. The Harris voters are even worse. While they may have the time to watch more games, they don’t even have the sense of responsibility to ensure they get their votes in!
If there were no human polls, there could be no politicking. A computer rating that was properly designed would not be perfect, but it would certainly be better than what we have now.
Add a playoff of 8 or 16 teams, and I think you would have about as good a scenario as you could hope for. There will always be some debate, but it is highly unlikely that the 17th ranked team could really win the championship.

by Longhorn in Canada on Nov 27, 2008 11:00 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

That's pretty cool

I don’t know how the voters are “voted” in to be voters, but it seems like he might get voted out if he votes OU out of the BCS (as in ranks them out of the top ten, but especially unranked). It would look pretty bad if he did that but hey, if it gets him and NC and it’s not breaking any rules….

by carsondude on Nov 27, 2008 11:23 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Best he could do with clear conscience

Bama, Horns, Gators, OU

by realmccoy on Nov 27, 2008 11:34 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Exactly. I don’t think there’s any question that he will vote exactly that way for the top four. I do think there’s the off-chance that he could put USC or Penn State #4, but it’s very unlikely.

by burntorangehorn on Nov 27, 2008 11:40 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Don't most

of Stoops’ evil spawns have votes in the coaches poll?

I could see Leach (Tech), Stoops (Arizona), Mangino(Kansas), Chuck Long (San Diego State), Bo Pellini(Nebraska), or Kevin Sumlin(Houston) leaving Texas completely off their ballots if they have one and just one of these could offset anything Mack could do and more than one kills Texas and theirs would be anonymous as well.

I don’t see Robinson or Chizik helping Mack out much in this (someone call Robinson, he’s a lame duck anyway, and Chizik might be in trouble as well).

by tdwalsh on Nov 27, 2008 11:42 PM CST reply actions 0 recs