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Ballot Check: Big 12 South One-Loss Teams

Apparently, some voters are having trouble sorting out the Big 12 South's one-loss teams, as the Longhorns discovered that their loss in Lubbock not only cost them six spots in the Coaches Poll, but also that after the fall they wound up... behind Oklahoma? Who they beat by 10 points on a neutral field just one month ago? What the hell?

Struggling to understand how this could be, I decided it was time to chart the Big 12 South's one-loss teams, to see if I could come up with any other reason for voting Oklahoma over the Longhorns. Among the averages at the bottom of the chart, scores and MOVs against non-Division 1 teams are not included.

Star-divide

TEXAS Rank PF PA MOV OKLAHOMA Rank PF PA MOV OKIE ST Rank PF PA MOV
FAU 111 52 10 +42 UT-Chat 214 57 2 +55 Wash St 149 39 13 +26
@ UTEP 108 42 13 +29 Cincy 42 52 26 +26 Houston 77 56 37 +19
Rice 65 52 10 +42 @ Wash 121 55 14 +41 SW Mizzou 167 57 13 +44
Arkie 61 52 10 +42 TCU 11 35 10 +25 Troy 73 55 24 +31
@ CU 70 38 14 +24 @ Baylor 75 49 17 +32 A&M 79 56 28 +28
n-OU 7 45 35 +10 n-Texas 2 35 45 -10 @ Mizzou 12 28 23 +5
Mizzou 12 56 31 +25 Kansas 37 45 31 +14 Baylor 75 34 6 +28
Okie St 8 28 24 +4 @ KState 66 58 35 +23 @ Texas 2 24 28 -4
@ Tech 5 33 39 -6 Nebraska 35 62 28 +34 Iowa St 110 59 17 +42
AVGS SOS: #7
43.1 20.6 23.5 AVGS SOS: #39 48.9 25.8 23.1 AVGS SOS: #85 43.9 22.0 21.9
  • STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE: Oklahoma owns the only significant non-conference win among the trio, but Texas' recent four-game stretch through hell gives them the country's 7th toughest schedule-to-date--better than Oklahoma and significantly ahead of Oklahoma State.
  • HEAD-TO-HEAD:  Texas has wins over OU and OSU, while the latter have not yet battled head-to-head.
  • MARGIN OF VICTORY:  A draw, with all three squads pounding hard bad teams for a 20+ MOV average.
  • BEST WINS:  Texas enjoys wins over Sagarin Top 30 Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, and Missouri   /   Oklahoma has a Top 30 win over TCU   /   Oklahoma State has a Top 30 win over Missouri.

CONCLUSION?

I would urge fellow Blog Poll voter not to drop the Longhorns behind Oklahoma or Oklahoma State, which at this point in time seems wholly indefensible. If you've got a case to make, I'm all ears, but I'm having trouble imagining even a creative justification for ranking the Sooners ahead of Texas.

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Comments

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totally agree

Texas should not drop below OU or USC for that matter. OU we beat on a neutral field so no one can argue that. USC is there based on name. Tech, Alabama, Penn State and maybe Florida are justifiably ahead of Texas but anyone who has Texas below 5 does not know what the hell they’re talking about. However this November is going to be fun.

by clra2 on Nov 3, 2008 1:35 AM CST reply actions  

I Would Rank OSU Ahead of Texas

How I would rank the B-12 teams at this moment in time on what they have achieved.

1. Tech undefeated beat Texas @ home, destroyed a flawed but good KU team.

2. Texas went 2-1 against the other three. One neutral win, one home win, and one loss on the road. Good blow-out win @ home over a very good but erratic Missouri team. Could switch places with Tech.

3. OSU lost a close game on the road to Texas, beat Missouri on the road.

4. Oklahoma lost a neutral game to Texas. Beat the KU team but @ home and has not been as impressive as OSU.

How I would rank the teams on a neutral field if the game was next Saturday?

1. Oklahoma St. has played its two big games on the road and won one and almost won the other against perhaps the best team of this group.

2. Texas has the best resume but played 2 games at home and has not won a significant road game yet. If they beat KU solidly that would be their best road win.

3. Tech held serve in beating Texas, but they are only half way through their 4 game series (KU, Texas, OU, OSU).

4. OU, least impressive team of the bunch. I could see the top three teams going anywhere from 8-0 to 6-2 before the OSU/Texas game, but the most likely number I see for OU is 5-3. Let an outsized KU team stay with them for 2 1/2 quarters at home, when Tech blew them out by the second quarter in Lawrence.

How I would rank their schedules in conference in terms of home/away, comparing games against each other and the two pretenders from the North (KU and MU) ranked from easiest to hardest…

1. Tech 2 home and 2 road, but the the 2 home are against the South heavyweights and got the weaker pretender in KU.

2. Oklahoma 2 home, 1 neutral, 1 road, got the weaker pretender at home

3. Texas 2 home, 1 neutral, and 2 road games. Got both pretenders, better this year than last year…

4. OSU 1 home game and 3 road games, debatable between Texas and OSU, but I would rather have Texas’ schedule, than this one.

More weighting needs to be given to road and home games on this blog. For all the overall outstanding analysis, this enormous factor rarely gets mentioned.

by sleepyhawk on Nov 3, 2008 3:28 AM CST reply actions  

I'm not discounting home v. road

My problem with OSU is their resume is pretty much completely dependent on the road win in Columbia being something really special. And Missouri’s not doing their part: blowout loss to Texas, squeaker win over Baylor… Honestly, I’d like Missouri to finish strong for Texas’ sake, but as of this moment, their up-and-down season is what’s keeping me from valuing OSU’s resume above OU’s. Because outside the Missouri win, OSU has nothing. A close loss to Texas only gets you so much on the resume. They need wins.

In a power poll? I’ll take OSU. But on resume, the road win at Missouri and close loss at Texas have value, but not enough to get them past Oklahoma.

--PB--

by Peter Bean on Nov 3, 2008 3:36 AM CST up reply actions  

Nebraska good barometer

of Tech vs. OU. IMO, a squeaker TT win in OT vs. huskers does not compare to what OU did this past weekend. OU is a real beast and I would take them in a head-to-head match with TT.

And, OSU won a nail biter at mizzou. We have seen a jeckyl-hyde mizzou since the Texas loss so hard to gauge how big a win that is today but certainly was at the time.

by TXStampede on Nov 3, 2008 9:17 AM CST up reply actions  

I've never understood

how people voting in polls can so totally disregard head-to-head play. You see instances every year of teams being 6 and 7 and 7 winning when they played, or teams ranked 13 and 15, and 15 winning when the two met.

Asking some people who vote in polls to LOOK DEEPER than last week’s game is obviously too challenging. Anybody remember the (Mississippi, I believe) voter who had Texas ranked ninth late in the 2004 season? Only person in the country in a major poll that had Horns ranked below about 6.

by edsp on Nov 3, 2008 10:58 AM CST reply actions  

OU hasn't lost to an average team like tech

OU lost to a #4Texas team, and we lost to a #7 Tech team who didn’t even deserve that high of a ranking with the OT win vs. Nebraska along with the close game against TAMU. We shouldn’t have lost to Tech. It’s obvious that we lost some confidence after barely beating Ok State.

by longhorn8806 on Nov 3, 2008 11:01 AM CST reply actions  

The road win @ MU was something special

 Missouri hadn’t lost in Columbia since OU in ’06. Until one of the the top four wins a game on the road against one of the others, I find it difficult to really feel confident that one is better than the other. What Texas has done has been really impressive, but I think Tech orOk. St. might have been able to accomplish the same if they had the same schedule. I do feel confident OU is weakest of this special group. If Tech won the North (7-1), I would find it very frustrating that Texas would get snubbed, because I would have a very strong suspicion that Texas was the better team (due to the schedule). However, if Texas won the North (7-1) and Ok. St. ended up with the same record, I would think Ok. St. got hosed, because they would have won most of their big games on the road.

I am more of basketball fan, and at least in basketball you get to play every team in the conference. It is is still not "fair’ but it is more balanced. I am KU fan, but I always feel a little bad (not too bad) for the South teams because you tend to have more quality teams than the North. If Missouri and KSU or Iowa St. ever got back to where they have been in the past (in terms of basketball) it would even out. Even if you get hosed like Texas in the South by having to play more good teams than KU does in the North, you get the opportunity to play in the B 12 tournament and then in the NCAA if you are good enough. You never get that opportunity in CFB which limits my enjoyment.

Also, as much grief as the basketball seeding committee gets, compared to the CFB poll voters, I think they tend to do a much better job. The computers do a much better job than the human voters as the season progresses, because they are not limited by a groupthink of what happened last week. I would just go with the computers for 2/3’s of the vote and drop Billingsly (or whatever the consistent outlier program is). It is still very flawed system. It is trying to make chickensalad out of chickensh$%.

In 1978, USC went 11-1 and Alabama went 11-1. ‘Bama got the national championship even though USC went into Birmingham and beat Bama 24-14. Bama was never in the game, because they couldn’t stop USC’s pass offense, which I predicted before the game (I was 10). I could see giving it to Alabama if the game was at the Rose Bowl or in California, but not when they dominated the Crimson Tide in ‘Bama, I never unstood the vote. I have never given any meaning to the MNC since that date, it is media contrived BS selling you something that it really isn’t. We as fans deserve much of the blame for watching the games and the bowls. If we boycotted all the bowls for one season we would have a play-off system overnight, but we don’t so we have this garbage. We get what we deserve.

So, don’t be surprised if OU gets the title game match-up if Tech, OU, and Texas all end up at 7-1. I doubt OU can do it, so you have that insurance.

by sleepyhawk on Nov 3, 2008 8:30 PM CST reply actions  

Thanks for the thoughts

Great takes abound.

The scheduling thing is a tough one to factor in, given all the other variables. Exploring the issue in full will be a little easier after we see what Tech, OU, and OSU do in their upcoming round robin.

--PB--

by Peter Bean on Nov 3, 2008 11:45 PM CST up reply actions  

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