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Have At It: Blog Poll Draft Ballot

This week's Blog Poll draft ballot after the jump, where your feedback is always appreciated and  considered. Bear in mind that my methodology seeks to reward the team with the best resume to date, as opposed to project how the remainder of the season will unfold or who would win on a neutral field.

In trying to fairly treat the teams at the top, I thought I'd put together one more chart to help sort through the top seven teams jumbled in various orders across the many ballots. Though more has to go into the analysis than what's charted below, I think it illuminating to see the top contenders side-by-side strength of schedule and Best Three Wins, as decided on by me using margin of victory, location of game, and strength of opponent.

Each win is labeled by the Opponent, margin, and Sagarin Predictor rating, such that TX +6 (4) is a six point home victory over Texas, the #4 ranked team by Predictor.

Tech Bama Penn St Florida Texas Oklahoma USC
SOS 64 56 66 10 7 39 29
Win #1 TX +6 (4) @ UGA +11 (14) @ Ohio St +7 (15) n-UGA +39 (14) n-OU +10 (5) TCU +24 (9) Ohio St +32 (15)
Win #2 KU +41 (29) MISS +4 (31) Ore St +31 (19) LSU +30 (23) Mizzou +25 (10) Neb +34 (25) @ AZ +7 (12)
Win #3 Neb +6 (25) @ TN +20 (52) Illinois +14 (27) Miami +23 (24) Okie St +4 (8) KU +14 (29) @ UVA +45 (40)
Loss? No No No MISS -1 (31) @ Tech -6 (7) n-TX -10 (4) @ Ore St -6 (19)

Ballot and chatter after the jump. Suggested revisions considered through Tuesday evening.

Star-divide

RankTeamDelta
1 Texas Tech 5
2 Penn State --
3 Alabama --
4 Texas 3
5 Florida --
6 Southern Cal 2
7 Oklahoma --
8 Oklahoma State --
9 TCU 3
10 Boise State 1
11 Utah 1
12 Missouri 1
13 North Carolina 1
14 California 1
15 Michigan State 1
16 Oregon State 1
17 Ohio State 1
18 Pittsburgh 8
19 West Virginia 7
20 Northwestern 6
21 Ball State --
22 Georgia 13
23 Georgia Tech 3
24 Maryland 2
25 Miami (Florida) 1

Dropped Out:
Minnesota (#19), Virginia (#20), Tulsa (#22), Duke (#23), Oregon (#24), Florida State (#25).

BALLOT THOUGHTS

  • I give Texas Tech the nod for having the second-best win on the board (behind Texas over OU), no losses, a monstrous rout of Kansas, and equivalent SOS to Penn State and Alabama. There's room to quibble here, but won't be if the Red Raiders beat a very dangerous Oklahoma State team in Lubbock on Saturday night.
  • Alabama used their big win and Clemson's preseason expectations to springboard into contention, but the resume itself is now pretty thin, their road win at Georgia impressive but not what it could have been had the Dawgs won in Jacksonville. A convincing road win at LSU this week could be enough to jump Penn State.
  • Speaking of whom: The Nittany Lions have a nice road win at Ohio State, an impressive home thumping of Oregon State, and a two-touchdown victory over a good-not-great Illinois team. Good enough, at this moment, to keep them above Alabama. But the road ahead could bring trouble. Penn State's remaining schedule (at Iowa, Indiana, Michigan State) adds little value. What happens if Oregon State tanks down the stretch? If Michigan State's luck runs out? If Illinois drops its final two to Ohio State and Northwestern?

    Penn State is doing well enough with human voters right now, but the soft schedule which gives them the best chance at finishing with a perfect record is also what makes them vulnerable to finishing without much of a Miami case to make. Moreover, if everything breaks against Penn State, it's theoretically possible--though highly, highly unlikely--they could at 12-0 wind up fifth or sixth in the computers, behind a swarm of one-loss teams from the Big 12 and SEC (Texas, OU, Tech, Florida, and Alabama). Of greater concern would be finishing 3rd or 4th in the computers--not outside the realm of possibilities. At 12-0, human voters would almost assuredly give Penn State enough juice to overcome any such computer crisis... unless, of course, the voters asked critically why PSU was languishing in the computers to begin with.

    Which... ha. ha. ha. Not a chance. If Penn State's the lone unbeaten team, they'll get enough human love to play for it all.
  • I'm seeing Florida rocket up a lot of ballots, including a #1 vote from Mike at Braves and Birds, who lays out a Power Poll case for the Gators on the top line. Which is fine by me: It's not a huge leap to get from Florida's current work-to-date, add some projected love, and wind up with "Why not UF?" But on a more resume-based approach, I see their body of work as less impressive than Texas', which features three outstanding wins and a less damaging loss.
  • USC's top three wins aren't sexy names at this point of the season, but each team is better than generally credited and the Trojans' huge margins of victory over both Ohio State and Virginia help the cause. Still, this is a resume going nowhere fast. Cal offers one more solid notch on the belt, but it's overall slim pickins, with Ohio State the Big 10's second fiddle, Virginia fading, and the Pac 10 plodding along in good-not-great mode this year.
  • Though Oklahoma is in my view just on the outside of the conversation, the Tech-Oklahoma State finishing punch provides potential to make noise late. The Sooners really need to root for Tech over OSU, then dispatch of the Red Raiders and Cowboys in order, setting up a three-way tie with Texas (if it wins out) and Texas Tech. Should they slide into Kansas City, they'll have the chance to be the red-hot one-loss Big 12 team with a chance at Miami.
  • Most of the rest of the ballot is a mess, I'm sure, and though Oklahoma State gets the short end of the analysis stick this week--clearly behind OU and USC at the moment--if they win on Saturday in Lubbock, they get a seat at the grown up table, very much in the one-loss mix club fighting for Kansas City/Miami.

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Comments

Display:

Are those the current Sagarin rankings?

If not, it would be interesting to see the Sagarin ranking numbers at the time the wins occurred.

by TXStampede on Nov 3, 2008 6:42 AM CST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Interesting, maybe

Useful, no – unless you want to see which teams Billingsley is hilariously wrong on. Should Bama get a huge bonus because nobody knew Clemson sucked when they played? Should LSU get a huge bonus because nobody knew Auburn sucked when they played? No.

by SpartanDan on Nov 3, 2008 8:24 AM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Game of the week?

If OU runs the table, then I have never been a bigger fan of the Utes and the Falcons. We need TCU to lose a game and hopefully it comes at the hands of Utah this Saturday evening. OU needs a computer glitch even though we hold the tie breaker.

by TXStampede on Nov 3, 2008 6:52 AM CST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

tech will lose to ou and osu

i just don’t think they can handle osu’s running game or that bruising tight end of theirs. basically tech will see a bigger, stronger version of themselves in osu, and they won’t know how to deal. i think one of the reasons we lost in the first half of the tx-tech game was the lack of balance on our offense. we basically had no running game to speak off to keep their d honest. osu won’t have that problem. ou on the other hand will pick harrell’s pass-as-run passes off and take them to the house at least a couple of times. they’re getting really good at that lately. i just can’t see tech beating both osu and ou. one, maybe, but not a chance in hell they’ll get both.

as long as we don’t get jump by florida in the polls (my biggest worry), we should be in the big 12 title game and the nc.

by iamjackburton on Nov 3, 2008 9:21 AM CST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Glad to see

TCU move in front of Boise State.

Still don’t understand two-loss Ohio State ranked in front of two-loss Michigan State. Your final score, from East Lansing, was Ohio State 45, Michigan State 7. Buckeyes’ losses were to No. 2 and No. 6, Spartans’ to Ohio State and No. 14

by edsp on Nov 3, 2008 11:28 AM CST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Agreed on the latter part

MSU is good, but they’re not better than Ohio State, and nothing they’ve done on the field should give you any reason to think otherwise (yet). If we win at PSU in three weeks, sure. If Ohio State drops one in the next couple weeks, sure. But right now, no.

by SpartanDan on Nov 3, 2008 2:05 PM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

FWIW

Alabama (they were #2, didn’t think Texas should have leap frogged when they beat OU)
Penn State (they were #3)
Texas Tech (more chances to leap frog in the next few weeks)
Texas (3-1 in a brutal stretch, SOS not the timing of the loss, they beat OU recently)
Oklahoma (ehh)
Florida (lossed to unranked Ole Miss at home, there’s no excuse)
USC (ehh part 2)
OK State (chance to leap frog USC next week)
TCU
Mizzou

by kellen on Nov 3, 2008 12:33 PM CST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

The thing that makes you rich, make me poor...

That atmosphere and adrenalin-drenched first half hurricane is hard to reproduce. The emotional bump from winning can play hell with psyches, inducing belief of racing in the clouds when being grounded is actually called for. Will they make the game walk the plank? Or re-live it all week.

So, I think Tech may have serious problems with OSU. With Kendal Hunter in particular.

Last year Crabtree dropped the winning pass in the EZ. Right in his hands. The 40-year-old man never noted just how frickin’ lucky his team was.

This will be evenly matched teams in so many respects, but it’s Tech that has the real psychological burden and they are in brand new territory.

If Tech falls in this game, they will probably fall again, too.

Should Tech be #1? Yeah, they earned it. A least for a week.

by whills on Nov 3, 2008 1:11 PM CST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Winning Will Take Care of Everything

If we just take care of business and WIN, we stand a very good chance of being in the Big 12 champ game. Hopefully Mack will not be Mr. Nice Guy. Time to take off the kid gloves for last the 3 games and hit them with all we got from both sides of the ball. Yes, I know we need TT to lose but they’re in some unprecedented territory for them. I would be shocked if they make it thru the Big 12 without a loss.

I believe TT will have a let down next week. OSU is going hit TT receivers at line of scrimmage, plus OSU is not afraid to blitz. For OSU this game is BIG. TT then travels to Norman, where OU will want to make a statement! Then the real interesting game becomes the OU vs OSU game. However, in this scenario this game would make no difference to us. However, if TT should only lose one of these games I would prefer them lose to OSU. If TT loses to OSU then beats OU I guess that would make the OSU vs OU game BIG. If TT only loses to OU and OU wins out I afraid OU could leap frog us in the BCS. Plus it would be hard for BCS to have us ahead of TT.

Regarding the MNC an Alabama loss this week important. Then we would need them to beat UF in the SEC game.
Then it would be a choice between us or Alabama against PSU.

by burntorange81 on Nov 3, 2008 2:12 PM CST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

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