I generally agree, with the caveat that Fulmer was about as close to known quantity as any first time coach can be to a program. His old coach was also on his side, and that never hurts. I don’t think there’s a current assistant who would be as palatable this time around as Fulmer.

My theory, for whatever it’s worth, is that top programs are risk adverse generally and moreso in the SEC. As you say, Butch Davis carries the lowest risk since he’s a demonstrated program builder.

Cutcliffe flamed out, but won quite a bit along the way and was able to beat Johnson with Duke (I’d love to interview Johnson just to give him a hard time about that). I think you underestimate Johnson a bit though. Vandy is dangerous, which is not the same as being good, but above the historical mean. Of course, these are just the big names, and the due diligence will uncover some new faces.

I honestly don’t know a thing about Mike Hamilton though, so I won’t be surprised with anything he does.