New Sagarin Rankings Not Pretty

by Paramount on Nov 30, 2008 3:23 AM CST

Well, the first of the new BCS Computers are up, and theyre terrible. OU has passed Texas after this Saturday. i'm 99% sure they're updated. (the 1 %is all hope no head) this is one of the polls that I really did not expect to see change, but TCU going into the top 10 killed us. So, here is the link, anyone have early thoughts?

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/fbt08.htm

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Hopefully that is the one that they throw out

But it is going to come down to the voters, we just have to hope that a few people change there vote.

Adopt-a-recruit: Devon Kennard DE
Phoenix (AZ) Desert Vista 6'3" 257lbs

by blazzinken on Nov 30, 2008 3:24 AM CST reply actions

Hopefully...

Hopefully but when it’s this close, every vote counts. This one will probably be thrown out, but that means another high ranking wont be. IONO, we will have to wait and see, but this doesnt make me feel any better

by Paramount on Nov 30, 2008 3:27 AM CST up reply actions

Not Good...

tellshowbcs.com said that if OU was #2 in the sagarin that it might be the end for UT…and they ended up at #1…not good

by BradESPN on Nov 30, 2008 3:49 AM CST reply actions

Possibly Wrong

Oklahoma was already ranked 2nd here. Maybe that guy misread becaiuse he was talking about moving up to second or third

by Paramount on Nov 30, 2008 4:06 AM CST up reply actions

nvm, i f'd up

oklahoma was 4, they jus erased a huge chunk of our cpu lead in one poll. unbelievable

by Paramount on Nov 30, 2008 4:17 AM CST up reply actions

Blame Mizzou

by seth78 on Nov 30, 2008 4:33 AM CST up reply actions

Ouch..

Texas is going to have to erase that 63 vote total in the human polls, and be up on OU to have a shot………….not looking good. Indeed that Mizzou loss was huge for Texas. I still find it interesting that Florida is still 6th though

by silky51 on Nov 30, 2008 7:42 AM CST reply actions

Computers and Polls

I have no doubt that not only will the Texas advantage in the computer now be gone, I think we will also be facing a disadvantage in the computers.

That means that Texas will likely need to be ahead of OU in both polls to hold onto #2 in the BCS.

I’m predicting OU with three 1st places and three 2nd places in the computers for a comp score of 0.98
I’m predictuing Texas with one 1st place, two 2nd places, and three 3rd places for a comp score of 0.94

Simply put we need lots of voters and coaches to change their minds and rank Texas above OU.

--AW--

by awiggo on Nov 30, 2008 10:06 AM CST reply actions

Can someone explain why we'll be behind OU in the computers?

Not asking from a rant standpoint but rather purely analytical.

Margin of victory isn’t a component, and I thought that we have a marginally stronger SOS, even with Mizzou’s loss yesterday?

What other factors would be at play to allow OU to jump us in the computers?

by Hopkins Horn on Nov 30, 2008 10:58 AM CST up reply actions

A&M vs. OSU

A simple explanation is that the computers only take into account what has happened. So, adding a home victory over A&M to Texas’ resume is worth less than adding a road victory over Ok State to OU’s.

The Sooners had been closing on Texas in the computers over the last few weeks. We played the tougher Big XII competition in the middle of our season, while OU took on Tech and OSU in their final couple of games.

Now, our Big XII resumes are very similar in the minds of the computers and OU’s non-conference opponents of Cincinnati and TCU are helping put them over the top.

--AW--

by awiggo on Nov 30, 2008 11:09 AM CST up reply actions

In other words...

…the computers reward OU more for Cincy and TCU, but don’t punish them by the equivalent amount for Washington and Chattanooga?

by Hopkins Horn on Nov 30, 2008 11:26 AM CST up reply actions

Just using Sagarin’s ratings, TCU is 9th and Cincinnati is 15th, both ahead of Mizzou 22nd. Both of those teams finished 10-2. OU also has the best true road win (OSU last night).

As an aside, I think whether Texas gets there or doesn’t get there, they owe a debt of gratitude to David Bailiff and the Rice Owls who had their best record in a half century (9-3). I’m curious what a typical Rice season would have done to their computer rankings.

by DoubleB on Nov 30, 2008 11:10 AM CST up reply actions

I don't understand why Sagarin has OU ahead of UT at all!

He lists UT’s SOS as 12th (5 better than OU) and UT has the head to head. How is OU ranked higher?

by ajax77777 on Nov 30, 2008 11:12 AM CST up reply actions

well...

for starters OU jumped from 22 (4th) to 25 (1st) in the Sagarin rankings, which is the only ranking that I’ve seen updated. Texas was 25 (1st) and dropped to 24 (2nd) in the Sagarin. That alone adds a minimum of 3 points to Oklahoma’s computer ranking (because they already had a 25 ranking last week that will be thrown out again, and wont go down). Us on the other hand will lose 1 point because of the Sagarin, and possibly 2 points if our lone 25 score drops to a 24. Then one of our 24s will be thrown out. Oklahoma only has room to go up, and us only down because of the teams we played this week. At the end of the day we will end up with a .940 or .950 and Oklahoma will end up with a .960 or .970

If we dont make up significant ground in the Coaches and Harris polls, we wont out rank them in the BCS poll later today. Their computer ranking will be higher than ours.

-flo

by bleed burnt orange on Nov 30, 2008 11:14 AM CST up reply actions

I think the writing is on the wall for Texas. Sucks b/c we know who the better team is.

I will just take a lot of satisfaction knowing that Florida is gonna kill them.

by girlslikefootball2 on Nov 30, 2008 10:20 AM CST reply actions

writing on the wall is correct...

We all know whats coming. And its going to be a travesty that Texas can win the RRR and actually lose out to Oklahoma in the polls with the same record. What? I will get some pleasure if Florida/Alabama beat them in the NC, but it will be bittersweet because THIS Texas team can ACTUALLY beat both teams. This team is special. Not because of the ridiculous talent, like the 2005 team but because of their heart. The myth that Oklahoma is better today than on October 11th is a farce. We beat them then, and we’d beat them now.

-flo

by bleed burnt orange on Nov 30, 2008 10:44 AM CST up reply actions

One point behind OU in Coaches Poll

http://www.sportsline.com/collegefootball/polls/coaches

by Sleepy on Nov 30, 2008 11:20 AM CST reply actions

Tech has a 1st Place Vote!

Mike Leach should be ashamed of himself.

by ajax77777 on Nov 30, 2008 11:32 AM CST up reply actions

i dont see a Tech 1st place vote...

there’s no # in () for them…..and it looks like Auburn just picked up 2 first place votes that Oklahoma got last week. We NEEDED to make up this ground in the coaches poll, it was the most significant hurdle, even being down one point is better than the 42 we were down last week. I have some hopes for the Harris Interactive now.

Coaches-
OU- .9161
TX- .9154

-flo

by bleed burnt orange on Nov 30, 2008 11:46 AM CST up reply actions

really?

it looks like Auburn just picked up 2 first place votes

by vy til i die on Nov 30, 2008 12:43 PM CST up reply actions

It was there but got fixed.

http://www.burntorangenation.com/2008/11/30/675858/ou-by-a-single-point-in-us#10346719

by ajax77777 on Nov 30, 2008 12:44 PM CST up reply actions

i meant Alabama, because the whooping handed to Aub

sorry

-flo

by bleed burnt orange on Nov 30, 2008 1:00 PM CST up reply actions

Well here's some realistically unrealistic hope

In the Harris poll, if Texas can pick up 23 points and Oklahoma subsequently drop 18 points, then…..

Texas would have 2600 and Oklahoma would have 2580 pts in the Harris Interactive (not far fetched considering the swing in the coaches poll), then:

Texas can squeek out a win if we tie Oklahoma in the computer rankings. We have no shot of beating them if they are even 1 point higher in the computers than us, unless our Harris increases to 2610 or 2620, here are the numbers

Assuming Texas 2600 Oklahoma 2580 in Harris Interactive:

Texas-.9123
Oklahoma-.9053

Numbers could look like this:
                          Harris Coaches CPU BCS
Texas – .9123 .9154 .930 .9192
                                                                                      .940 .9226
                                                                                      .950 .9259
                                                                                      .960 .9292
Oklahoma .9053 .9161 .940 .9205
                                                                                      .950 .9238
                                                                                      .960 .9271
                                                                                      .970 .9305

If we pick up 2610 or 2620 and Oklahoma drops to 2580, our chances allow us to fall behind Oklahoma by ONLY 1 point in the Computer Avgs.

Anybody else feel even a little better? Me neither.

-flo

by bleed burnt orange on Nov 30, 2008 12:28 PM CST reply actions