Yet another scenario

by 54b on Nov 30, 2008 1:56 PM CST Comment 6 comments

Could UT still end up in the Top 2 after next weekend even if we don’t go to KC for the conference championship?

Hear me out...

Florida’s SOS took a pretty big hit yesterday with both LSU and Georgia losing. While the number of points they’ve been putting up are impressive, who have they really beaten? And if they beat Alabama, that’ll be big, but if they beat Alabama convincingly and Bama drops down like Tech did (after losing to OU) because let’s face it, Bama’s resume ain’t anyting to write home about either, what’s to stop the BCS from keeping UT ahead of Florida like it has been the last four or five weeks?

We may still be in this thing regardless and sitting out next weekend may not be such a bad thing. Obviously the voters will show a lot of love for Florida if they win the SEC, but UT should still have a pretty big edge in the computers, especially if OU stays highly ranked.

I'm just saying.

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The only thing that hurts Texas

is losing to Mizzou. If UF beats Bama then I don’t see them not getting most of Bama’s voters plus Florida gets a stronger scheudle for having beaten the #1 team. If Florida struggles against Bama the entire game then that could help Texas despite Florida being SEC champ. Voters would want to see a Texas/OU rematch just to shut up the 45-35 campaign but do you go with two conference winners in the top 5 or two teams from the same division in the top 5 with a very bitter rivalry between them?

It could go either way but I think it favors Florida a bit more.

by seth78 on Nov 30, 2008 2:31 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

More possible than 3 days ago yes

Beating Bama on a neutral field is going to help Florida’s computer rankings and I also think that they would be #1 in all the polls.

At worst, they would play for an AP title and I don’t really think it matters who they play (Ohio State or Utah).

by DoubleB on Nov 30, 2008 2:35 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

I posted about this in my BCS analysis last week.

It’s possible, though not probable. The hope would have to be that OU and Florida split the #1/#2 vote so that they’re both effectively ranked like 1.5 rather than Florida being a near unanimous #1 while OU is a near unanimous #2. Because if Each is #1.5 and Texas is a near unanimous #3, Texas may have a big enough lead over Florida in the computers to still lead them in the BCS. My bet, though, is that if Florida beats Bama, they will be a near unanimous #1, making it virtually impossible for Texas to have a big enough lead int he computers to lead the BCS.

Possible though.

by billyzane on Nov 30, 2008 3:07 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Where does UF make up ground?

I think you’re right. I think there’s going to be consolidation around Florida if they beat Alabama by the voters because they want that Big XII/SEC title game.

That being said, where does UF make up ground in the computers? Billingsley will love them, but that’ll get thrown out. The computers really do hate them and Bama for that matter. They might not make up any real ground here.

by DoubleB on Nov 30, 2008 4:46 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

"Hate" is relative.

They “HATE” Alabama in the sense that they think Bama is third in the country. OU beat a team that the computers thought was the 11th best in the country last week and they jumped .08 in the computers. There’s plenty of room to move up.

by billyzane on Nov 30, 2008 4:52 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

thats the part that gets me...

they win ONE game vs a 9-3 team that we also beat and they get 8 points from it? Some of the computer algorithms seem quite flawed if THAT is a larger factor than head to head. I just didnt see that big of a jump in ALL of the polls. They moved up an average of 2 pts/poll. Its just going to bug me for a little bit.

I need to take a shower and eat something. Kiss my wife and kids and watch a movie or something. I cant watch football today. I doubt I’ll watch the games next weekend either. It just doesnt matter.

-flo

by bleed burnt orange on Nov 30, 2008 5:09 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs